A cryptic genetic boundary in remnant populations of a long-lived, bird-pollinated shrubBanksia sphaerocarpavar.caesia(Proteaceae)

Population modelling and genetics of a critically endangered Madagascan palm Tahina spectabilis

Madagascar is home to 208 indigenous palm species, almost all of them endemic and >80% of which are endangered. We undertook complete population census and sampling for genetic analysis of a relatively recently discovered giant fan palm, the Critically Endangered Tahina spectablis in 2008 and 2016. Our 2016 study included newly discovered populations and added to our genetic study. We incorporated these new populations into species distribution niche model (SDM) and projected these onto maps of the region. We developed population matrix models based on observed demographic data to model population change and predict the species vulnerability to extinction by undertaking population viability analysis (PVA). We investigated the potential conservation value of reintroduced planted populations within the species potential suitable habitat. We found that the population studied in 2008 had grown in size due to seedling regeneration but had declined in the number of reproductively mature plants, and we were able to estimate that the species reproduces and dies after approximately 70 years. Our models suggest that if the habitat where it resides continues to be protected the species is unlikely to go extinct due to inherent population decline and that it will likely experience significant population growth after approximately 80 years due to the reproductive and life cycle attributes of the species. The newly discovered populations contain more genetic diversity than the first discovered southern population which is genetically depauperate. The species appears to demonstrate a pattern of dispersal leading to isolated founder plants which may eventually lead to population development depending on local establishment opportunities. The conservation efforts currently put in place including the reintroduction of plants within the species potential suitable habitat if maintained are thought likely to enable the species to sustain itself but it remains vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts.

Anthropogenic fragmentation may not alter pre-existing patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation in perennial shrubs

Many plant species have pollination and seed dispersal systems and evolutionary histories that have produced strong genetic structuring. These genetic patterns may be consistent with expectations following recent anthropogenic fragmentation, making it difficult to detect fragmentation effects if no prefragmentation genetic data are available. We used microsatellite markers to investigate whether severe habitat fragmentation may have affected the structure and diversity of populations of the endangered Australian bird-pollinated shrub Grevillea caleyi R.Br., by comparing current patterns of genetic structure and diversity with those of the closely related G. longifolia R.Br. that has a similar life history but has not experienced anthropogenic fragmentation. Grevillea caleyi and G. longifolia showed similar and substantial population subdivision at all spatial levels (global F'_ST  = 0.615 and 0.454; S_p  = 0.039 and 0.066), marked isolation by distance and large heterozygous deficiencies. These characteristics suggest long-term effects of inbreeding in self-compatible species that have poor seed dispersal, limited connectivity via pollen flow and undergo population bottlenecks because of periodic fires. Highly structured allele size distributions, most notably in G. caleyi, imply historical processes of drift and mutation were important in isolated subpopulations. Genetic diversity did not vary with population size but was lower in more isolated populations for both species. Through this comparison, we reject the hypothesis that anthropogenic fragmentation has impacted substantially on the genetic composition or structure of G. caleyi populations. Our results suggest that highly self-compatible species with limited dispersal may be relatively resilient to the genetic changes predicted to follow habitat fragmentation.

Paternity analysis reveals wide pollen dispersal and high multiple paternity in a small isolated population of the bird-pollinated Eucalyptus caesia (Myrtaceae)

Optimal foraging behaviour by nectavores is expected to result in a leptokurtic pollen dispersal distribution and predominantly near-neighbour mating. However, complex social interactions among nectarivorous birds may result in different mating patterns to those typically observed in insect-pollinated plants. Mating system, realised pollen dispersal and spatial genetic structure were examined in the bird-pollinated Eucalyptus caesia, a species characterised by small, geographically disjunct populations. Nine microsatellite markers were used to genotype an entire adult stand and 181 seeds from 28 capsules collected from 6 trees. Mating system analysis using MLTR revealed moderate to high outcrossing (t_m=0.479-0.806) and low estimates of correlated paternity (r_p=0.136±s.e. 0.048). Paternity analysis revealed high outcrossing rates (mean=0.72) and high multiple paternity, with 64 different sires identified for 181 seeds. There was a significant negative relationship between the frequency of outcross mating and distance between mating pairs. Realised mating events were more frequent than expected with random mating for plants <40 m apart. The overall distribution of pollen dispersal distances was platykurtic. Despite extensive pollen dispersal within the stand, three genetic clusters were detected by STRUCTURE analysis. These genetic clusters were strongly differentiated yet geographically interspersed, hypothesised to be a consequence of rare recruitment events coupled with extreme longevity. We suggest that extensive polyandry and pollen dispersal is a consequence of pollination by highly mobile honeyeaters and may buffer E. caesia against the loss of genetic diversity predicted for small and genetically isolated populations.