Efficient Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis with basis function approximations using Gaussian-Wishart processes

MAGMA: inference and prediction using multi-task Gaussian processes with common mean

A novel multi-task Gaussian process (GP) framework is proposed, by using a common mean process for sharing information across tasks. In particular, we investigate the problem of time series forecasting, with the objective to improve multiple-step-ahead predictions. The common mean process is defined as a GP for which the hyper-posterior distribution is tractable. Therefore an EM algorithm is derived for handling both hyper-parameters optimisation and hyper-posterior computation. Unlike previous approaches in the literature, the model fully accounts for uncertainty and can handle irregular grids of observations while maintaining explicit formulations, by modelling the mean process in a unified GP framework. Predictive analytical equations are provided, integrating information shared across tasks through a relevant prior mean. This approach greatly improves the predictive performances, even far from observations, and may reduce significantly the computational complexity compared to traditional multi-task GP models. Our overall algorithm is called Magma (standing for Multi tAsk GPs with common MeAn). The quality of the mean process estimation, predictive performances, and comparisons to alternatives are assessed in various simulated scenarios and on real datasets.

Bayesian analysis of longitudinal and multidimensional functional data

Multi-dimensional functional data arises in numerous modern scientific experimental and observational studies. In this article, we focus on longitudinal functional data, a structured form of multidimensional functional data. Operating within a longitudinal functional framework we aim to capture low dimensional interpretable features. We propose a computationally efficient nonparametric Bayesian method to simultaneously smooth observed data, estimate conditional functional means and functional covariance surfaces. Statistical inference is based on Monte Carlo samples from the posterior measure through adaptive blocked Gibbs sampling. Several operative characteristics associated with the proposed modeling framework are assessed comparatively in a simulated environment. We illustrate the application of our work in two case studies. The first case study involves age-specific fertility collected over time for various countries. The second case study is an implicit learning experiment in children with autism spectrum disorder.

Nonparametric Bayes Models of Fiber Curves Connecting Brain Regions

In studying structural inter-connections in the human brain, it is common to first estimate fiber bundles connecting different regions relying on diffusion MRI. These fiber bundles act as highways for neural activity. Current statistical methods reduce the rich information into an adjacency matrix, with the elements containing a count of fibers or a mean diffusion feature along the fibers. The goal of this article is to avoid discarding the rich geometric information of fibers, developing flexible models for characterizing the population distribution of fibers between brain regions of interest within and across different individuals. We start by decomposing each fiber into a rotation matrix, shape and translation from a global reference curve. These components are viewed as data lying on a product space composed of different Euclidean spaces and manifolds. To nonparametrically model the distribution within and across individuals, we rely on a hierarchical mixture of product kernels specific to the component spaces. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we develop efficient methods for posterior sampling. The approach automatically produces clusters of fibers within and across individuals. Applying the method to Human Connectome Project data, we find interesting relationships between brain fiber geometry and reading ability. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.