Nomogram to predict the benefit from salvage systemic therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma

Combination therapy with paclitaxel and gemcitabine after platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced urothelial cancer

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of paclitaxel and gemcitabine therapy after platinum-based chemotherapy for patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma who received paclitaxel and gemcitabine therapy from December 2003 to March 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The objective response for paclitaxel and gemcitabine therapy, progression-free survival and overall survival, and adverse events were evaluated. The reduction rate among each metastatic site and the associations between the clinical parameters and overall survival or progression-free survival were also assessed.

RESULTS

We enrolled 58 patients. Complete and partial responses were observed in two (3.4%) and 15 patients (26%), respectively. The median progression-free survival and overall survival were 4.3 months (95% confidence interval 2.9-5.2) and 11.5 months (95% confidence interval 7.7-14.8), respectively. The objective response rates of primary site and metastases in lymph nodes, lung, bone, and liver were 6.0%, 37%, 23%, 0%, and 22%, respectively. Poor performance status (≥1), prior use of gemcitabine and the number of metastatic sites (≥2) were significantly associated with poor overall survival. Although three patients discontinued the treatment because of adverse events, there was no therapy-related death.

CONCLUSIONS

Paclitaxel and gemcitabine therapy seems to be a valid option as a subsequent treatment after platinum-based chemotherapy for urothelial carcinoma, especially in patients with favorable performance status and no prior use of gemcitabine.

Preoperative prognostic nutritional index and nomogram predicting recurrence-free survival in patients with primary non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer without carcinoma in situ

Background and objectives

Among the cancers of the urogenital system, bladder cancer is ranked second both in incidence and mortality, and hence, a more accurate estimate of the prognosis for individual patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is urgently needed. Prognostic nutritional index (PNI) which is based on serum albumin levels and peripheral lymphocyte count has been confirmed to have prognostic value in various cancers. The aim of this study was to clarify the prognostic value of PNI in patients with NMIBC.

Methods

Data of 329 patients with NMIBC were evaluated retrospectively. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier method, and the equivalences of survival curves were tested by log-rank tests. The univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Discrimination of the nomogram was measured by the concordance index. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

In univariate analysis, age, tumor focality, tumor size, tumor grade, pathological T stage and preoperative PNI were significantly associated with RFS. Multivariate analysis identified PNI as an independent predictor of RFS in patients with NMIBC. According to these independent predictors, a nomogram for the prediction of recurrence was developed.

Conclusion

PNI can be regarded as an independent prognostic factor for predicting RFS in NMIBC. The nomogram could be useful to improve personalized therapy for patients with NMIBC.

Preoperative nomogram to predict the likelihood of complications after radical nephroureterectomy

OBJECTIVES

To construct a nomogram based on preoperative variables to better predict the likelihood of complications occurring within 30 days of radical nephroureterectomy (RNU).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The charts of 731 patients undergoing RNU at eight academic medical centres between 2002 and 2014 were reviewed. Preoperative clinical, demographic and comorbidity indices were collected. Complications occurring within 30 days of surgery were graded using the modified Clavien-Dindo scale. Multivariate logistic regression determined the association between preoperative variables and post-RNU complications. A nomogram was created from the reduced multivariate model with internal validation using the bootstrapping technique with 200 repetitions.

RESULTS

A total of 408 men and 323 women with a median age of 70 years and a body mass index of 27 kg/m² were included. A total of 75% of the cohort was white, 18% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status ≥2, 20% had a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score >5 and 50% had baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) ≥ stage III. Overall, 279 patients (38%) experienced a complication, including 61 events (22%) with Clavien grade ≥ III. A multivariate model identified five variables associated with complications, including patient age, race, ECOG performance status, CKD stage and CCI score. A preoperative nomogram incorporating these risk factors was constructed with an area under curve of 72.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using standard preoperative variables from this multi-institutional RNU experience, we constructed and validated a nomogram for predicting peri-operative complications after RNU. Such information may permit more accurate risk stratification on an individual cases basis before major surgery.

Salvage systemic therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma: on the cusp of a sea change?

This commentary addresses salvage therapy of advanced urothelial carcinoma and the importance of prognostic classification. Patients should be referred to one of the important clinical trials of salvage therapy rather than treatment with marginally active chemotherapeutic agents.