Meta-analysis provides insights into the origin and evolution of East Asian evergreen broad-leaved forests

Evergreen broad-leaved forests (EBLFs) are dominated by a monsoon climate and form a distinct biome in East Asia with notably high biodiversity. However, the origin and evolution of East Asian EBLFs (EAEBLFs) remain elusive despite the estimation of divergence times for various representative lineages. Using 72 selected generic-level characteristic lineages, we constructed an integrated lineage accumulation rate (LAR) curve based on their crown ages. According to the crown-based LAR, the EAEBLF origin was identified at least as the early Oligocene (c. 31.8 million years ago (Ma)). The accumulation rate of the characteristic genera peaked at 25.2 and 6.4 Ma, coinciding with the two intensification periods of the Asian monsoon at the Oligocene - Miocene and the Miocene - Pliocene boundaries, respectively. Moreover, the LAR was highly correlated with precipitation in the EAEBLF region and negatively to global temperature, as revealed through time-lag cross-correlation analyses. An early Oligocene origin is suggested for EAEBLFs, bridging the gap between paleobotanical and molecular dating studies and solving conflicts among previous estimates based on individual representative lineages. The strong correlation between the crown-based LAR and the precipitation brought about by the Asian monsoon emphasizes its irreplaceable role in the origin and development of EAEBLFs.

Co-evolution of early Earth environments and microbial life

Two records of Earth history capture the evolution of life and its co-evolving ecosystems with interpretable fidelity: the geobiological and geochemical traces preserved in rocks and the evolutionary histories captured within genomes. The earliest vestiges of life are recognized mostly in isotopic fingerprints of specific microbial metabolisms, whereas fossils and organic biomarkers become important later. Molecular biology provides lineages that can be overlayed on geologic and geochemical records of evolving life. All these data lie within a framework of biospheric evolution that is primarily characterized by the transition from an oxygen-poor to an oxygen-rich world. In this Review, we explore the history of microbial life on Earth and the degree to which it shaped, and was shaped by, fundamental transitions in the chemical properties of the oceans, continents and atmosphere. We examine the diversity and evolution of early metabolic processes, their couplings with biogeochemical cycles and their links to the oxygenation of the early biosphere. We discuss the distinction between the beginnings of metabolisms and their subsequent proliferation and their capacity to shape surface environments on a planetary scale. The evolution of microbial life and its ecological impacts directly mirror the Earth's chemical and physical evolution through cause-and-effect relationships.

Two Notorious Nodes: A Critical Examination of Relaxed Molecular Clock Age Estimates of the Bilaterian Animals and Placental Mammals

The popularity of relaxed clock Bayesian inference of clade origin timings has generated several recent publications with focal results considerably older than the fossils of the clades in question. Here, we critically examine two such clades: the animals (with a focus on the bilaterians) and the mammals (with a focus on the placentals). Each example displays a set of characteristic pathologies which, although much commented on, are rarely corrected for. We conclude that in neither case does the molecular clock analysis provide any evidence for an origin of the clade deeper than what is suggested by the fossil record. In addition, both these clades have other features (including, in the case of the placental mammals, proximity to a large mass extinction) that allow us to generate precise expectations of the timings of their origins. Thus, in these instances, the fossil record can provide a powerful test of molecular clock methodology, and why it goes astray, and we have every reason to think these problems are general. [Cambrian explosion; mammalian evolution; molecular clocks.].

Integrative methods reveal multiple drivers of diversification in rice paddy snakes

Divergence dating analyses in systematics provide a framework to develop and test biogeographic hypotheses regarding speciation. However, as molecular datasets grow from multilocus to genomic, sample sizes decrease due to computational burdens, and the testing of fine-scale biogeographic hypotheses becomes difficult. In this study, we use coalescent demographic models to investigate the diversification of poorly known rice paddy snakes from Southeast Asia (Homalopsidae: Hypsiscopus), which have conflicting dates of origin based on previous studies. We use coalescent modeling to test the hypothesis that Hypsiscopus diversified 2.5 mya during the Khorat Plateau uplift in Thailand. Additionally, we use ecological niche analyses to identify potential differences in the niche space of the two most widely distributed species in the past and present. Our results suggest Hypsiscopus diversified ~ 2.4 mya, supporting that the Khorat Plateau may have initiated the diversification of rice paddy snakes. We also find significant niche differentiation and shifts between species of Hypsiscopus, indicating that environmental differences may have sustained differentiation of this genus after the Khorat Plateau uplift. Our study expands on the diversification history of snakes in Southeast Asia, and highlights how results from smaller multilocus datasets can be useful in developing and testing biogeographic hypotheses alongside genomic datasets.

Ordovician origin and subsequent diversification of the brown algae

Brown algae are the only group of heterokont protists exhibiting complex multicellularity. Since their origin, brown algae have adapted to various marine habitats, evolving diverse thallus morphologies and gamete types. However, the evolutionary processes behind these transitions remain unclear due to a lack of a robust phylogenetic framework and problems with time estimation. To address these issues, we employed plastid genome data from 138 species, including heterokont algae, red algae, and other red-derived algae. Based on a robust phylogeny and new interpretations of algal fossils, we estimated the geological times for brown algal origin and diversification. The results reveal that brown algae first evolved true multicellularity, with plasmodesmata and reproductive cell differentiation, during the late Ordovician Period (ca. 450 Ma), coinciding with a major diversification of marine fauna (the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event) and a proliferation of multicellular green algae. Despite its early Paleozoic origin, the diversification of major orders within this brown algal clade accelerated only during the Mesozoic Era, coincident with both Pangea rifting and the diversification of other heterokont algae (e.g., diatoms), coccolithophores, and dinoflagellates, with their red algal-derived plastids. The transition from ancestral isogamy to oogamy was followed by three simultaneous reappearances of isogamy during the Cretaceous Period. These are concordant with a positive character correlation between parthenogenesis and isogamy. Our new brown algal timeline, combined with a knowledge of past environmental conditions, shed new light on brown algal diversification and the intertwined evolution of multicellularity and sexual reproduction.

Shallow Whole-Genome Sequencing of Aedes japonicus and Aedes koreicus from Italy and an Updated Picture of Their Evolution Based on Mitogenomics and Barcoding

Aedes japonicus and Aedes koreicus are two invasive mosquitoes native to East Asia that are quickly establishing in temperate regions of Europe. Both species are vectors of arboviruses, but we currently lack a clear understanding of their evolution. Here, we present new short-read, shallow genome sequencing of A. japonicus and A. koreicus individuals from northern Italy, which we used for downstream phylogenetic and barcode analyses. We explored associated microbial DNA and found high occurrences of Delftia bacteria in both samples, but neither Asaia nor Wolbachia. We then assembled complete mitogenomes and used these data to infer divergence times estimating the split of A. japonicus from A. koreicus in the Oligocene, which was more recent than that previously reported using mitochondrial markers. We recover a younger age for most other nodes within Aedini and other Culicidae. COI barcoding and phylogenetic analyses indicate that A. japonicus yaeyamensis, A. japonicus amamiensis, and the two A. koreicus sampled from Europe should be considered as separate species within a monophyletic species complex. Our studies further clarify the evolution of A. japonicus and A. koreicus, and indicate the need to obtain whole-genome data from putative species in order to disentangle their complex patterns of evolution.

Impacts of Taxon-Sampling Schemes on Bayesian Tip Dating Under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Evolutionary timescales can be inferred by molecular-clock analyses of genetic data and fossil evidence. Bayesian phylogenetic methods such as tip dating provide a powerful framework for inferring evolutionary timescales, but the most widely used priors for tree topologies and node times often assume that present-day taxa have been sampled randomly or exhaustively. In practice, taxon sampling is often carried out so as to include representatives of major lineages, such as orders or families. We examined the impacts of different densities of diversified sampling on Bayesian tip dating on unresolved fossilized birth-death (FBD) trees, in which fossil taxa are topologically constrained but their exact placements are averaged out. We used synthetic data generated by simulations of nucleotide sequence evolution, fossil occurrences, and diversified taxon sampling. Our analyses under the diversified-sampling FBD process show that increasing taxon-sampling density does not necessarily improve divergence-time estimates. However, when informative priors were specified for the root age or when tree topologies were fixed to those used for simulation, the performance of tip dating on unresolved FBD trees maintains its accuracy and precision or improves with taxon-sampling density. By exploring three situations in which models are mismatched, we find that including all relevant fossils, without pruning off those that are incompatible with the diversified-sampling FBD process, can lead to underestimation of divergence times. Our reanalysis of a eutherian mammal data set confirms some of the findings from our simulation study, and reveals the complexity of diversified taxon sampling in phylogenomic data sets. In highlighting the interplay of taxon-sampling density and other factors, the results of our study have practical implications for using Bayesian tip dating to infer evolutionary timescales across the Tree of Life. [Bayesian tip dating; eutherian mammals; fossilized birth-death process; phylogenomics; taxon sampling.].

Molecular timetrees using relaxed clocks and uncertain phylogenies

A common practice in molecular systematics is to infer phylogeny and then scale it to time by using a relaxed clock method and calibrations. This sequential analysis practice ignores the effect of phylogenetic uncertainty on divergence time estimates and their confidence/credibility intervals. An alternative is to infer phylogeny and times jointly to incorporate phylogenetic errors into molecular dating. We compared the performance of these two alternatives in reconstructing evolutionary timetrees using computer-simulated and empirical datasets. We found sequential and joint analyses to produce similar divergence times and phylogenetic relationships, except for some nodes in particular cases. The joint inference performed better when the phylogeny was not well resolved, situations in which the joint inference should be preferred. However, joint inference can be infeasible for large datasets because available Bayesian methods are computationally burdensome. We present an alternative approach for joint inference that combines the bag of little bootstraps, maximum likelihood, and RelTime approaches for simultaneously inferring evolutionary relationships, divergence times, and confidence intervals, incorporating phylogeny uncertainty. The new method alleviates the high computational burden imposed by Bayesian methods while achieving a similar result.

Confidence intervals in molecular dating by maximum likelihood

Molecular dating has been widely used to infer the times of past evolutionary events using molecular sequences. This paper describes three bootstrap methods to infer confidence intervals under a penalized likelihood framework. The basic idea is to use data pseudoreplicates to infer uncertainty in the branch lengths of a phylogeny reconstructed with molecular sequences. The three specific bootstrap methods are nonparametric (direct tree bootstrapping), semiparametric (rate smoothing), and parametric (Poisson simulation). Our extensive simulation study showed that the three methods perform generally well under a simple strict clock model of molecular evolution; however, the results were less positive with data simulated using an uncorrelated or a correlated relaxed clock model. Several factors impacted, possibly in interaction, the performance of the confidence intervals. Increasing the number of calibration points had a positive effect, as well as increasing the sequence length or the number of sequences although both latter effects depended on the model of evolution. A case study is presented with a molecular phylogeny of the Felidae (Mammalia: Carnivora). A comparison was made with a Bayesian analysis: the results were very close in terms of confidence intervals and there was no marked tendency for an approach to produce younger or older bounds compared to the other.

Assessing the relative performance of fast molecular dating methods for phylogenomic data

Advances in genome sequencing techniques produced a significant growth of phylogenomic datasets. This massive amount of data represents a computational challenge for molecular dating with Bayesian approaches. Rapid molecular dating methods have been proposed over the last few decades to overcome these issues. However, a comparative evaluation of their relative performance on empirical data sets is lacking. We analyzed 23 empirical phylogenomic datasets to investigate the performance of two commonly employed fast dating methodologies: penalized likelihood (PL), implemented in treePL, and the relative rate framework (RRF), implemented in RelTime. They were compared to Bayesian analyses using the closest possible substitution models and calibration settings. We found that RRF was computationally faster and generally provided node age estimates statistically equivalent to Bayesian divergence times. PL time estimates consistently exhibited low levels of uncertainty. Overall, to approximate Bayesian approaches, RelTime is an efficient method with significantly lower computational demand, being more than 100 times faster than treePL. Thus, to alleviate the computational burden of Bayesian divergence time inference in the era of massive genomic data, molecular dating can be facilitated using the RRF, allowing evolutionary hypotheses to be tested more quickly and efficiently.

Disease-causing human viruses: novelty and legacy

About 270 viruses are known to infect humans. Some of these viruses have been known for centuries, whereas others have recently emerged. During their evolutionary history, humans have moved out of Africa to populate the world. In historical times, human migrations resulted in the displacement of large numbers of people. All these events determined the movement and dispersal of human-infecting viruses. Technological advances have resulted in the characterization of the genetic variability of human viruses, both in extant and in archaeological samples. Field studies investigated the diversity of viruses hosted by other animals. In turn, these advances provided insight into the evolutionary history of human viruses back in time and defined the key events through which they originated and spread.

One-way ticket to the blue: A large-scale, dated phylogeny revealed asymmetric land-to-water transitions in acariform mites (Acari: Acariformes)

Acariform mites are an ancient and megadiverse lineage that may have experienced a complex pattern of invasions into terrestrial and aquatic habitats. These among-realm transitions may relate to periods of turmoil in Earth's history or be simply results of uneven biodiversity patterns across habitats. Here, we inferred a dated, representative acariform phylogeny (five genes, 9,200 bp aligned, 367 terminals belonging to 150 ingroup plus 15 outgroup families, 23 fossil calibration points) which was used to infer transitions between marine/freshwater/terrestrial habitats. We detected four unambiguous transitions from terrestrial to freshwater habitats (Hydrozetes, Naiadacarus, Fusohericia, Afronothrus, Homocaligus); one from freshwater to marine (Pontarachnidae), and four from marine to brackish or freshwater transitions (all among Halacaridae: Acarothrix; Halacarellus petiti; Copidognathus sp.; clade Limnohalacarus + Soldanellonyx + Porohalacarus + Porolohmannella). One transition to the sea was inferred ambiguously with respect to the ancestor being either terrestrial or freshwater (Hyadesiidae), and another must be most carefully examined by adding potential related taxa (Selenoribatidae + Fortuyniidae). Finally, we inferred a single, remarkable transition from aquatic to terrestrial habitats involving early evolution of the large and ecologically diverse lineage: the ancestor of the Halacaridae + Parasitengona clade was probably freshwater given our dataset, thus making terrestrial Parasitengona secondarily terrestrial. Overall, our results suggested a strong asymmetry in environmental transitions: the majority occurred from terrestrial to aquatic habitats. This asymmetry is probably linked to mites' biological properties and uneven biodiversity patterns across habitats rather than Earth's geological history. Since the land holds more acariform diversity than water habitats, a shift from the former is more likely than from the latter. We inferred the following relationships: alicid endeostigmatid + eriophyoid (Alycidae, (Nanorchestidae, (Nematalycidae, Eriophyoidea))) being sister group to the remaining Acariformes: (proteonematalycid Endeostigmata, alicorhagiid Endeostigmata, Trombidiformes, Oribatida (including Astigmata)). Trombidiform relationships had several novel rearrangements: (i) traditional Eupodina lacked support for the inclusion of Bdelloidea; (ii) Teneriffidae, traditionally placed among Anystina, was consistently recovered in a clade including Heterostigmata in Eleutherengona; (iii) several lineages, such as Adamystidae, Paratydeidae, Caeculidae and Erythracaridae, were recovered in a large clade along other Anystina and Eleutherengona, suggesting single origins of several fundamental character states, such as the reduction of the cheliceral fixed digit and development of the palpal thumb-claw complex.

Unravelling the cryptic diversity and evolution of the dwarf swamp frog Pseudopaludicola mystacalis (Anura, Leptodactylidae) in open habitats of South America

Many studies on the diversity of the South American biota support the role of ecological and geological events as main drivers of species diversification. For many groups, geomorphological events are the key drivers of diversification, while the influence of Pleistocene climate oscillations is prominent for others. To precisely indicate which events were key for the development of the astonishing biodiversity in South America, studies on widely distributed species are paramount. One such species, the dwarf swamp frog Pseudopaludicola mystacalis (Leptodactylidae, Leiuperinae), is widely distributed in open habitats of South America and we herein investigate population differentiation and diversification in this species across its geographic range. We sequenced a 1374 bp mtDNA fragment from 64 specimens across 25 localities. We used population assignment and species delimitation methods to assess genetic structure and lineage limits across the species distribution. We estimated, for each lineage, intraspecific diversity, divergence times, and demographic histories. Our results recovered ten lineages with up to 5% of genetic divergence among them. Diversification occurred mainly during the Tertiary, suggesting that Miocene-Pliocene topographic events had a major influence on the diversification of P. mystacalis. Pleistocene climatic oscillations also played a role on evolutionary history of P. mystacalis, causing demographic changes in one lineage.

What is the age of flowering plants?

The origin of flowering plants (angiosperms) was one of the most transformative events in the history of our planet. Despite considerable interest from multiple research fields, numerous questions remain, including the age of the group as a whole. Recent studies have reported a perplexing range of estimates for the crown-group age of angiosperms, from ~140 million years (Ma; Early Cretaceous) to 270 Ma (Permian). Both ends of the spectrum are now supported by both macroevolutionary analyses of the fossil record and fossil-calibrated molecular dating analyses. Here, we first clarify and distinguish among the three ages of angiosperms: the age of their divergence with acrogymnosperms (stem age); the age(s) of emergence of their unique, distinctive features including flowers (morphological age); and the age of the most recent common ancestor of all their living species (crown age). We then demonstrate, based on recent studies, that fossil-calibrated molecular dating estimates of the crown-group age of angiosperms have little to do with either the amount of molecular data or the number of internal fossil calibrations included. Instead, we argue that this age is almost entirely conditioned by its own prior distribution (typically a calibration density set by the user in Bayesian analyses). Lastly, we discuss which future discoveries or novel types of analyses are most likely to bring more definitive answers. In the meantime, we propose that the age of angiosperms is best described as largely unknown (140-270 Ma) and that contrasting age estimates in the literature mostly reflect conflicting prior distributions. We also suggest that future work that depends on the time scale of flowering plant diversification be designed to integrate over this vexing uncertainty.

Variation in the substitution rates among the human mitochondrial haplogroup U sublineages

Resolving the absolute timescale of phylogenetic trees stipulates reliable estimates for the rate of DNA sequence evolution. For this end, various calibration methods have been developed and studied intensively. Intraspecific rate variation among distinct genetic lineages, however, has gained less attention. Here, we have assessed lineage-specific molecular rates of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) by performing tip-calibrated Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. Tip-calibration, as opposed to traditional nodal time stamps from dated fossil evidence or geological events, is based on sample ages and becoming ever more feasible as ancient DNA data from radiocarbon-dated samples accumulate. We focus on subhaplogroups U2, U4, U5a, and U5b, the data including ancient mtDNA genomes from ¹⁴C-dated samples (n = 234), contemporary genomes (n = 301), and two outgroup sequences from haplogroup R. The obtained molecular rates depended on the data sets (with or without contemporary sequences), suggesting time-dependency. More notable was the rate variation between haplogroups: U4 and U5a stand out having a substantially higher rate than U5b. This is also reflected in the divergence times obtained (U5a: 17,700 years and U5b: 29,700 years), a disparity not reported previously. After ruling out various alternative causes (e.g., selection, sampling, and sequence quality), we propose that the substitution rates have been influenced by demographic histories, widely different among populations where U4/U5a or U5b are frequent. As with the Y-chromosomal subhaplogroup R1b, the mitochondrial U4 and U5a have been associated with remarkable range extensions of the Yamnaya culture in the Bronze Age.

Phylogenomics and evolutionary history of Oreocnide (Urticaceae) shed light on recent geological and climatic events in SE Asia

Climate change and geological events have long been known to shape biodiversity, implying that these can likewise be viewed from a biological perspective. To study whether plants can shed light on this, and how they responded to climate change there, we examined Oreocnide, a genus widely distributed in SE Asia. Based on broad geographic sampling with genomic data, we employed an integrative approach of phylogenomics, molecular dating, historical biogeography, and ecological analyses. We found that Oreocnide originated in mainland East Asia and began to diversify ∼6.06 Ma, probably in response to a distinct geographic and climatic transition in East Asia at around that time, implying that the last important geological change in mainland SE Asia might be 1 Ma older than previously suggested. Around four immigration events to the islands of Malesia followed, indicating that immigration from the mainland could be an underestimated factor in the assembly of biotic communities in the region. Two detected increases of diversification rate occurred 3.13 and 1.19 Ma, which strongly implicated climatic rather than geological changes as likely drivers of diversification, with candidates being the Pliocene intensification of the East Asian monsoons, and Pleistocene climate and sea level fluctuations. Distribution modelling indicated that Pleistocene sea level and climate fluctuations were inferred to enable inter-island dispersal followed by allopatric separation, underpinning radiation in the genus. Overall, our study, based on multiple lines of evidence, linked plant diversification to the most recent climatic and geological events in SE Asia. We highlight the importance of immigration in the assembly and diversification of the SE Asian flora, and underscore the utility of plant clades, as independent lines of evidence, for reconstructing recent climatic and geological events in the SE Asian region.

Epidemiological Inference From Pathogen Genomes: A Review of Phylodynamic Models and Applications

Phylodynamics requires an interdisciplinary understanding of phylogenetics, epidemiology, and statistical inference. It has also experienced more intense application than ever before amid the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In light of this, we present a review of phylodynamic models beginning with foundational models and assumptions. Our target audience is public health researchers, epidemiologists, and biologists seeking a working knowledge of the links between epidemiology, evolutionary models, and resulting epidemiological inference. We discuss the assumptions linking evolutionary models of pathogen population size to epidemiological models of the infected population size. We then describe statistical inference for phylodynamic models and list how output parameters can be rearranged for epidemiological interpretation. We go on to cover more sophisticated models and finish by highlighting future directions.

Ant phylogenomics reveals a natural selection hotspot preceding the origin of complex eusociality

The evolution of eusociality has allowed ants to become one of the most conspicuous and ecologically dominant groups of organisms in the world. A large majority of the current ∼14,000 ant species belong to the formicoids,¹ a clade of nine subfamilies that exhibit the most extreme forms of reproductive division of labor, large colony size,² worker polymorphism,³ and extended queen longevity.⁴ The eight remaining non-formicoid subfamilies are less well studied, with few genomes having been sequenced so far and unclear phylogenetic relationships.⁵ By sequencing 65 genomes, we provide a robust phylogeny of the 17 ant subfamilies, retrieving high support to the controversial leptanillomorph clade (Leptanillinae and Martialinae) as the sister group to all other extant ants. Moreover, our genomic analyses revealed that the emergence of the formicoids was accompanied by an elevated number of positive selection events. Importantly, the top three gene functions under selection are linked to key features of complex eusociality, with histone acetylation being implicated in caste differentiation, gene silencing by RNA in worker sterility, and autophagy in longevity. These results show that the key pathways associated with eusociality have been under strong selection during the Cretaceous, suggesting that the molecular foundations of complex eusociality may have evolved rapidly in less than 20 Ma.

Investigating the reliability of molecular estimates of evolutionary time when substitution rates and speciation rates vary

Background

An accurate timescale of evolutionary history is essential to testing hypotheses about the influence of historical events and processes, and the timescale for evolution is increasingly derived from analysis of DNA sequences. But variation in the rate of molecular evolution complicates the inference of time from DNA. Evidence is growing for numerous factors, such as life history and habitat, that are linked both to the molecular processes of mutation and fixation and to rates of macroevolutionary diversification. However, the most widely used methods rely on idealised models of rate variation, such as the uncorrelated and autocorrelated clocks, and molecular dating methods are rarely tested against complex models of rate change. One relationship that is not accounted for in molecular dating is the potential for interaction between molecular substitution rates and speciation, a relationship that has been supported by empirical studies in a growing number of taxa. If these relationships are as widespread as current evidence suggests, they may have a significant influence on molecular dates.

Results

We simulate phylogenies and molecular sequences under three different realistic rate variation models—one in which speciation rates and substitution rates both vary but are unlinked, one in which they covary continuously and one punctuated model in which molecular change is concentrated in speciation events, using empirical case studies to parameterise realistic simulations. We test three commonly used “relaxed clock” molecular dating methods against these realistic simulations to explore the degree of error in molecular dates under each model. We find average divergence time inference errors ranging from 12% of node age for the unlinked model when reconstructed under an uncorrelated rate prior using BEAST 2, to up to 91% when sequences evolved under the punctuated model are reconstructed under an autocorrelated prior using PAML.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the potential for substantial errors in molecular dates when both speciation rates and substitution rates vary between lineages. This study highlights the need for tests of molecular dating methods against realistic models of rate variation generated from empirical parameters and known relationships.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02015-8.

Phylogenetics in Space: How Continuous Spatial Structure Impacts Tree Inference

The tendency to discretize biology permeates taxonomy and systematics, leading to models that simplify the often continuous nature of populations. Even when the assumption of panmixia is relaxed, most models still assume some degree of discrete structure. The multispecies coalescent has emerged as a powerful model in phylogenetics, but in its common implementation is entirely space-independent - what we call the "missing z-axis". In this article, we review the many lines of evidence for how continuous spatial structure can impact phylogenetic inference. We illustrate and expand on these by using complex continuous-space demographic models that include distinct modes of speciation. We find that the impact of spatial structure permeates all aspects of phylogenetic inference, including gene tree stoichiometry, topological and branch-length variance, network estimation, and species delimitation. We conclude by utilizing our results to suggest how researchers can identify spatial structure in phylogenetic datasets.

Diversification Rate is Associated with Rate of Molecular Evolution in Ray-Finned Fish (Actinopterygii)

Understanding the factors that drive diversification of taxa across the tree of life is a key focus of macroevolutionary research. While the effects of life history, ecology, climate and geography on diversity have been studied for many taxa, the relationship between molecular evolution and diversification has received less attention. However, correlations between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate have been detected in a range of taxa, including reptiles, plants and birds. A correlation between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate is a prediction of several evolutionary theories, including the evolutionary speed hypothesis which links variation in mutation rates to differences in speciation rates. If it is widespread, such correlations could also have significant practical impacts, if they are not adequately accounted for in phylogenetic inference of evolutionary rates and timescales. Ray-finned fish (Actinopterygii) offer a prime target to test for this relationship due to their extreme variation in clade size suggesting a wide range of diversification rates. We employ both a sister-pairs approach and a whole-tree approach to test for correlations between substitution rate and net diversification. We also collect life history and ecological trait data and account for potential confounding factors including body size, latitude, max depth and reef association. We find evidence to support a relationship between diversification and synonymous rates of nuclear evolution across two published backbone phylogenies, as well as weak evidence for a relationship between mitochondrial nonsynonymous rates and diversification at the genus level.

Phylogenetic Reconstruction of the Ancestral Chromosome Number of the Genera Anochetus Mayr, 1861 and Odontomachus Latreille, 1804 (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Ponerinae)

Recent phylogenetic and molecular data are changing our knowledge about the relations between species and evolutionary processes resulting in the chromosome variation observed in ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae). Ants exhibit remarkable variations in morphology, behavior, karyotypes, and chromosome structure. By assembling genetic and chromosome information about the trap-jaw ants from the subfamily Ponerinae, we reconstructed the phylogenetic relationships that inferred the monophyletic condition between the Anochetus and Odontomachus genera and estimated their ancestral haploid chromosome number. According to our inferences, these clades have an ancestral haploid chromosome number n = 15. The most recent common ancestor of Anochetus and Odontomachus has arisen between the Early Paleocene and the Early Eocene periods (time of the most recent common ancestor). In the Anochetus genus, we observed maintenance of the ancestral chromosome number estimated here in most species. This also suggests that pericentric inversions were the primary chromosomal rearrangement modulating the karyotype evolution of this genus. However, a reduction from n = 15–14 is observed in Anochetus emarginatus and Anochetus cf. madaraszi, which likely occurred by centromeric fusion. In contrast, the increase from the ancestral karyotype number in Anochetus horridus suggested centromeric fissions. Odontomachus showed maintenance of the ancestral chromosome number in the “rixosus group” and several gains in all species from the “haematodus group.” Our findings suggest that centromeric fissions and pericentric rearrangements lead to chromosomal changes in trap-jaw ants. Considering the ancestral state estimated here, changes in chromosome morphology are likely due to pericentric inversions, and chromosome number increases are likely due to centric fissions. The higher number of acrocentric or telocentric chromosomes in the karyotypes with n < 15 haploid chromosomes supports such an idea.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern is driven by acceleration of the substitution rate

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has seen an unprecedented amount of rapidly generated genome data. These data have revealed the emergence of lineages with mutations associated to transmissibility and antigenicity, known as variants of concern (VOCs). A striking aspect of VOCs is that many of them involve an unusually large number of defining mutations. Current phylogenetic estimates of the substitution rate of SARS-CoV-2 suggest that its genome accrues around two mutations per month. However, VOCs can have 15 or more defining mutations and it is hypothesized that they emerged over the course of a few months, implying that they must have evolved faster for a period of time. We analyzed genome sequence data from the GISAID database to assess whether the emergence of VOCs can be attributed to changes in the substitution rate of the virus and whether this pattern can be detected at a phylogenetic level using genome data. We fit a range of molecular clock models and assessed their statistical performance. Our analyses indicate that the emergence of VOCs is driven by an episodic increase in the substitution rate of around 4-fold the background phylogenetic rate estimate that may have lasted several weeks or months. These results underscore the importance of monitoring the molecular evolution of the virus as a means of understanding the circumstances under which VOCs may emerge.

Exploring Phylogenetic Relationships and Divergence Times of Bioluminescent Species Using Genomic and Transcriptomic Data

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has dominated the scene of genomics and evolutionary biology as a great amount of genomic data have been accumulated for a diverse set of species. At the same time, phylogenetic approaches and programs are in development to allow better use of such large-size datasets. Phylogenomics appears as a promising field to accommodate and explore all the information of NGS data in phylogenetic methods, being an important approach to investigate the evolution of bioluminescence in different organisms. To guarantee accurate results in phylogenomic studies, it is mandatory to correctly identify orthologous genes in phylogenetic reconstruction. Here, we show a simplified step-by-step framework to perform phylogenetic analysis along with divergence time estimation, beginning with an orthologous search. As empirical data, we exemplify transcriptome sequences of six species of the Elateroidea superfamily (Coleoptera). We introduce several bioinformatics tools for handling genomic data, especially those available in the software OrthoFinder, IQTREE, BEAST2, and TreePL.

Propagating clade and model uncertainty to confidence intervals of divergence times and branch lengths

Confidence intervals of divergence times and branch lengths do not reflect uncertainty about their clades or about the prior distributions and other model assumptions on which they are based. Uncertainty about the clade may be propagated to a confidence interval by multiplying its confidence level by the bootstrap proportion of its clade or by another probability that the clade is correct. (If the confidence level is 95% and the bootstrap proportion is 90%, then the uncertainty-adjusted confidence level is (0.95)(0.90) = 86%.) Uncertainty about the model can be propagated to the confidence interval by reporting the union of the confidence intervals from all the plausible models. Unless there is no overlap between the confidence intervals, that results in an uncertainty-adjusted interval that has as its lower and upper limits the most extreme limits of the models. The proposed methods of uncertainty quantification may be used together.

The Archean origin of oxygenic photosynthesis and extant cyanobacterial lineages

The record of the coevolution of oxygenic phototrophs and the environment is preserved in three forms: genomes of modern organisms, diverse geochemical signals of surface oxidation and diagnostic Proterozoic microfossils. When calibrated by fossils, genomic data form the basis of molecular clock analyses. However, different interpretations of the geochemical record, fossil calibrations and evolutionary models produce a wide range of age estimates that are often conflicting. Here, we show that multiple interpretations of the cyanobacterial fossil record are consistent with an Archean origin of crown-group Cyanobacteria. We further show that incorporating relative dating information from horizontal gene transfers greatly improves the precision of these age estimates, by both providing a novel empirical criterion for selecting evolutionary models, and increasing the stringency of sampling of posterior age estimates. Independent of any geochemical evidence or hypotheses, these results support oxygenic photosynthesis evolving at least several hundred million years before the Great Oxygenation Event (GOE), a rapid diversification of major cyanobacterial lineages around the time of the GOE, and a post-Cryogenian origin of extant marine picocyanobacterial diversity.

Evolutionary history of Sundaland shrews (Eulipotyphla: Soricidae: Crocidura) with a focus on Borneo

The hyperdiverse shrew genus Crocidura is one of few small mammal genera distributed across Sundaland and all of its boundaries. This represents a rare opportunity to study the geological history of this region through the evolutionary history of these shrews. We generate a phylogeny of all recognized species of Sundaland Crocidura and show that most speciation events took place during the Pleistocene, prior to the inundation of the Sunda Shelf around 400 000 years ago. We find east–west differentiation within two separate lineages on Borneo, and that the current taxonomy of its two endemic species does not reflect evolutionary history, but ecophenotypic variation of plastic traits related to elevation. Sulawesi shrews are monophyletic, with a single notable exception: the black-footed shrew (C. nigripes). We show that the black-footed shrew diverged from its relatives on Borneo recently, suggesting a human-assisted breach of Wallace’s line. Overall, the number of Crocidura species, especially on Borneo, probably remains an underestimate.

Data-driven speciation tree prior for better species divergence times in calibration-poor molecular phylogenies

MOTIVATION

Precise time calibrations needed to estimate ages of species divergence are not always available due to fossil records' incompleteness. Consequently, clock calibrations available for Bayesian dating analyses can be few and diffused, i.e. phylogenies are calibration-poor, impeding reliable inference of the timetree of life. We examined the role of speciation birth-death (BD) tree prior on Bayesian node age estimates in calibration-poor phylogenies and tested the usefulness of an informative, data-driven tree prior to enhancing the accuracy and precision of estimated times.

RESULTS

We present a simple method to estimate parameters of the BD tree prior from the molecular phylogeny for use in Bayesian dating analyses. The use of a data-driven birth-death (ddBD) tree prior leads to improvement in Bayesian node age estimates for calibration-poor phylogenies. We show that the ddBD tree prior, along with only a few well-constrained calibrations, can produce excellent node ages and credibility intervals, whereas the use of an uninformative, uniform (flat) tree prior may require more calibrations. Relaxed clock dating with ddBD tree prior also produced better results than a flat tree prior when using diffused node calibrations. We also suggest using ddBD tree priors to improve the detection of outliers and influential calibrations in cross-validation analyses.These results have practical applications because the ddBD tree prior reduces the number of well-constrained calibrations necessary to obtain reliable node age estimates. This would help address key impediments in building the grand timetree of life, revealing the process of speciation and elucidating the dynamics of biological diversification.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

An R module for computing the ddBD tree prior, simulated datasets and empirical datasets are available at https://github.com/cathyqqtao/ddBD-tree-prior.

Conditions under which distributions of edge length ratios on phylogenetic trees can be used to order evolutionary events

Two recent high profile studies have attempted to use edge (branch) length ratios from large sets of phylogenetic trees to determine the relative ages of genes of different origins in the evolution of eukaryotic cells. This approach can be straightforwardly justified if substitution rates are constant over the tree for a given protein. However, such strict molecular clock assumptions are not expected to hold on the billion-year timescale. Here we propose an alternative set of conditions under which comparisons of edge length distributions from multiple sets of phylogenies of proteins with different origins can be validly used to discern the order of their origins. We also point out scenarios where these conditions are not expected to hold and caution is warranted.

Additive Uncorrelated Relaxed Clock Models for the Dating of Genomic Epidemiology Phylogenies

Phylogenetic dating is one of the most powerful and commonly used methods of drawing epidemiological interpretations from pathogen genomic data. Building such trees requires considering a molecular clock model which represents the rate at which substitutions accumulate on genomes. When the molecular clock rate is constant throughout the tree then the clock is said to be strict, but this is often not an acceptable assumption. Alternatively, relaxed clock models consider variations in the clock rate, often based on a distribution of rates for each branch. However, we show here that the distributions of rates across branches in commonly used relaxed clock models are incompatible with the biological expectation that the sum of the numbers of substitutions on two neighboring branches should be distributed as the substitution number on a single branch of equivalent length. We call this expectation the additivity property. We further show how assumptions of commonly used relaxed clock models can lead to estimates of evolutionary rates and dates with low precision and biased confidence intervals. We therefore propose a new additive relaxed clock model where the additivity property is satisfied. We illustrate the use of our new additive relaxed clock model on a range of simulated and real data sets, and we show that using this new model leads to more accurate estimates of mean evolutionary rates and ancestral dates.

Molecular and morphological clocks for estimating evolutionary divergence times

BACKGROUND

Matrices of morphological characters are frequently used for dating species divergence times in systematics. In some studies, morphological and molecular character data from living taxa are combined, whereas others use morphological characters from extinct taxa as well. We investigated whether morphological data produce time estimates that are concordant with molecular data. If true, it will justify the use of morphological characters alongside molecular data in divergence time inference.

RESULTS

We systematically analyzed three empirical datasets from different species groups to test the concordance of species divergence dates inferred using molecular and discrete morphological data from extant taxa as test cases. We found a high correlation between their divergence time estimates, despite a poor linear relationship between branch lengths for morphological and molecular data mapped onto the same phylogeny. This was because node-to-tip distances showed a much higher correlation than branch lengths due to an averaging effect over multiple branches. We found that nodes with a large number of taxa often benefit from such averaging. However, considerable discordance between time estimates from molecules and morphology may still occur as  some intermediate nodes may show large time differences between these two types of data.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that node- and tip-calibration approaches may be better suited for nodes with many taxa. Nevertheless, we highlight the importance of evaluating the concordance of intrinsic time structure in morphological and molecular data before any dating analysis using combined datasets.

Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal in Measurably Evolving Populations

Phylogenetic methods can use the sampling times of molecular sequence data to calibrate the molecular clock, enabling the estimation of evolutionary rates and timescales for rapidly evolving pathogens and data sets containing ancient DNA samples. A key aspect of such calibrations is whether a sufficient amount of molecular evolution has occurred over the sampling time window, that is, whether the data can be treated as having come from a measurably evolving population. Here, we investigate the performance of a fully Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal (BETS) in sequence data. The method involves comparing the fit to the data of two models: a model in which the data are accompanied by the actual (heterochronous) sampling times, and a model in which the samples are constrained to be contemporaneous (isochronous). We conducted simulations under a wide range of conditions to demonstrate that BETS accurately classifies data sets according to whether they contain temporal signal or not, even when there is substantial among-lineage rate variation. We explore the behavior of this classification in analyses of five empirical data sets: modern samples of A/H1N1 influenza virus, the bacterium Bordetella pertussis, coronaviruses from mammalian hosts, ancient DNA from Hepatitis B virus, and mitochondrial genomes of dog species. Our results indicate that BETS is an effective alternative to other tests of temporal signal. In particular, this method has the key advantage of allowing a coherent assessment of the entire model, including the molecular clock and tree prior which are essential aspects of Bayesian phylodynamic analyses.

Divergence-time estimates for hominins provide insight into encephalization and body mass trends in human evolution

Quantifying speciation times during human evolution is fundamental as it provides a timescale to test for the correlation between key evolutionary transitions and extrinsic factors such as climatic or environmental change. Here, we applied a total evidence dating approach to a hominin phylogeny to estimate divergence times under different topological hypotheses. The time-scaled phylogenies were subsequently used to perform ancestral state reconstructions of body mass and phylogenetic encephalization quotient (PEQ). Our divergence-time estimates are consistent with other recent studies that analysed extant species. We show that the origin of the genus Homo probably occurred between 4.30 and 2.56 million years ago. The ancestral state reconstructions show a general trend towards a smaller body mass before the emergence of Homo, followed by a trend towards a greater body mass. PEQ estimations display a general trend of gradual but accelerating encephalization evolution. The obtained results provide a rigorous temporal framework for human evolution.

Ultraconserved Elements Improve the Resolution of Difficult Nodes within the Rapid Radiation of Neotropical Sigmodontine Rodents (Cricetidae: Sigmodontinae)

Sigmodontine rodents (Cricetidae, Sigmodontinae) represent the second largest muroid subfamily and the most species-rich group of New World mammals, encompassing above 410 living species and ca. 87 genera. Even with advances on the clarification of sigmodontine phylogenetic relationships that have been made recently, the phylogenetic relationships among the 12 main group of genera (i.e., tribes) remain poorly resolved, in particular among those forming the large clade Oryzomyalia. This pattern has been interpreted as consequence of a rapid radiation upon the group entrance into South America. Here, we attempted to resolve phylogenetic relationships within Sigmodontinae using target capture and high-throughput sequencing of ultraconserved elements (UCEs). We enriched and sequenced UCEs for 56 individuals and collected data from four already available genomes. Analyses of distinct data sets, based on the capture of 4,634 loci, resulted in a highly resolved phylogeny consistent across different methods. Coalescent species-tree based approaches, concatenated matrices, and Bayesian analyses recovered similar topologies that were congruent at the resolution of difficult nodes. We recovered good support for the intertribal relationships within Oryzomyalia; for instance, the tribe Oryzomyini appears as the sister taxa of the remaining oryzomyalid tribes. The estimates of divergence times agree with results of previous studies. We inferred the crown age of the sigmodontine rodents at the end of Middle Miocene, while the main lineages of Oryzomyalia appear to have radiated in a short interval during the Late Miocene. Thus, the collection of a genomic scale data set with a wide taxonomic sampling, provided resolution for the first time of the relationships among the main lineages of Sigmodontinae. We expect the phylogeny presented here will become the backbone for future systematic and evolutionary studies of the group.

Challenges in estimating virus divergence times in short epidemic timescales with special reference to the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

The estimation of evolutionary parameters provides essential information for designing public health policies. In short time intervals, however, nucleotide substitutions are ineffective to record all complexities of virus population dynamics. In this sense, the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic poses a challenge for evolutionary analysis. We used computer simulation to evolve populations in scenarios of varying temporal intervals to evaluate the impact of the age of an epidemic on estimates of time and geography. Before estimating virus timescales, the shape of tree topologies can be used as a proxy to assess the effectiveness of the virus phylogeny in providing accurate estimates of evolutionary parameters. In short timescales, estimates have larger uncertainty. We compared the predictions from simulations with empirical data. The tree shape of SARS-CoV-2 was closer to shorter timescales scenarios, which yielded parametric estimates with larger uncertainty, suggesting that estimates from these datasets should be evaluated cautiously. To increase the accuracy of the estimates of virus transmission times between populations, the uncertainties associated with the age estimates of both the crown and stem nodes should be communicated. We place the age of the common ancestor of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in late September 2019, corroborating an earlier emergence of the virus.

Factors influencing estimates of HIV-1 infection timing using BEAST

While large datasets of HIV-1 sequences are increasingly being generated, many studies rely on a single gene or fragment of the genome and few comparative studies across genes have been done. We performed genome-based and gene-specific Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to investigate how certain factors impact estimates of the infection dates in an acute HIV-1 infection cohort, RV217. In this cohort, HIV-1 diagnosis corresponded to the first RNA positive test and occurred a median of four days after the last negative test, allowing us to compare timing estimates using BEAST to a narrow window of infection. We analyzed HIV-1 sequences sampled one week, one month and six months after HIV-1 diagnosis in 39 individuals. We found that shared diversity and temporal signal was limited in acute infection, and insufficient to allow timing inferences in the shortest HIV-1 genes, thus dated phylogenies were primarily analyzed for env, gag, pol and near full-length genomes. There was no one best-fitting model across participants and genes, though relaxed molecular clocks (73% of best-fitting models) and the Bayesian skyline (49%) tended to be favored. For infections with single founders, the infection date was estimated to be around one week pre-diagnosis for env (IQR: 3–9 days) and gag (IQR: 5–9 days), whilst the genome placed it at a median of 10 days (IQR: 4–19). Multiply-founded infections proved problematic to date. Our ability to compare timing inferences to precise estimates of HIV-1 infection (within a week) highlights that molecular dating methods can be applied to within-host datasets from early infection. Nonetheless, our results also suggest caution when using uniform clock and population models or short genes with limited information content.

Molecular dating using phylogenetics allows us to estimate the date of an infection from time-stamped within-host sequences alone. There are large datasets of HIV-1 sequences, but genome and gene analyses are not often performed in parallel and rarely with the possibility to compare results against a known narrow window of infection. We showed that all but the longest genes are near-clonal in acute infection, with little information for dating purposes. For infections with single founders, we estimated the eclipse phase—the time between HIV-1 exposure and the first positive diagnostic test—to last between one and two weeks using env, gag, pol and near full-length genomes. This approach could be used to narrow the date of suspected infection in ongoing clinical trials for the prevention of HIV-1 infection.

Evolution: Reconstructing the Timeline of Eukaryogenesis

Timing the events in the evolution of eukaryotic cells is crucial to understanding this major transition. A recent study reconstructs the origins of thousands of gene families ancestral to eukaryotes and, using a controversial approach, aims to order the events of eukaryogenesis.

Radiation of nitrogen-metabolizing enzymes across the tree of life tracks environmental transitions in Earth history

Nitrogen is an essential element to life and exerts a strong control on global biological productivity. The rise and spread of nitrogen-utilizing microbial metabolisms profoundly shaped the biosphere on the early Earth. Here, we reconciled gene and species trees to identify birth and horizontal gene transfer events for key nitrogen-cycling genes, dated with a time-calibrated tree of life, in order to examine the timing of the proliferation of these metabolisms across the tree of life. Our results provide new insights into the evolution of the early nitrogen cycle that expand on geochemical reconstructions. We observed widespread horizontal gene transfer of molybdenum-based nitrogenase back to the Archean, minor horizontal transfer of genes for nitrate reduction in the Archean, and an increase in the proliferation of genes metabolizing nitrite around the time of the Mesoproterozoic (~1.5 Ga). The latter coincides with recent geochemical evidence for a mid-Proterozoic rise in oxygen levels. Geochemical evidence of biological nitrate utilization in the Archean and early Proterozoic may reflect at least some contribution of dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) rather than pure denitrification to N₂ . Our results thus help unravel the relative dominance of two metabolic pathways that are not distinguishable with current geochemical tools. Overall, our findings thus provide novel constraints for understanding the evolution of the nitrogen cycle over time and provide insights into the bioavailability of various nitrogen sources in the early Earth with possible implications for the emergence of eukaryotic life.

Uncertainty in Divergence Time Estimation

Understanding and representing uncertainty is crucial in academic research because it enables studies to build on the conclusions of previous studies, leading to robust advances in a particular field. Here, we evaluate the nature of uncertainty and the manner by which it is represented in divergence time estimation, a field that is fundamental to many aspects of macroevolutionary research, and where there is evidence that uncertainty has been seriously underestimated. We address this issue in the context of methods used in divergence time estimation, and with respect to the manner by which time-calibrated phylogenies are interpreted. With respect to methods, we discuss how the assumptions underlying different methods may not adequately reflect uncertainty about molecular evolution, the fossil record, or diversification rates. Therefore, divergence time estimates may not adequately reflect uncertainty and may be directly contradicted by subsequent findings. For the interpretation of time-calibrated phylogenies, we discuss how the use of time-calibrated phylogenies for reconstructing general evolutionary timescales leads to inferences about macroevolution that are highly sensitive to methodological limitations in how uncertainty is accounted for. By contrast, we discuss how the use of time-calibrated phylogenies to test specific hypotheses leads to inferences about macroevolution that are less sensitive to methodological limitations. Given that many biologists wish to use time-calibrated phylogenies to reconstruct general evolutionary timescales, we conclude that the development of methods of divergence time estimation that adequately account for uncertainty is necessary. [Divergence time estimation; macroevolution; uncertainty.].

Heterogeneity in the rate of molecular sequence evolution substantially impacts the accuracy of detecting shifts in diversification rates

As species richness varies along the tree of life, there is a great interest in identifying factors that affect the rates by which lineages speciate or go extinct. To this end, theoretical biologists have developed a suite of phylogenetic comparative methods that aim to identify where shifts in diversification rates had occurred along a phylogeny and whether they are associated with some traits. Using these methods, numerous studies have predicted that speciation and extinction rates vary across the tree of life. In this study, we show that asymmetric rates of sequence evolution lead to systematic biases in the inferred phylogeny, which in turn lead to erroneous inferences regarding lineage diversification patterns. The results demonstrate that as the asymmetry in sequence evolution rates increases, so does the tendency to select more complicated models that include the possibility of diversification rate shifts. These results thus suggest that any inference regarding shifts in diversification pattern should be treated with great caution, at least until any biases regarding the molecular substitution rate have been ruled out.

Phylogenomics indicates the "living fossil" Isoetes diversified in the Cenozoic

The fossil record provides an invaluable insight into the temporal origins of extant lineages of organisms. However, establishing the relationships between fossils and extant lineages can be difficult in groups with low rates of morphological change over time. Molecular dating can potentially circumvent this issue by allowing distant fossils to act as calibration points, but rate variation across large evolutionary scales can bias such analyses. In this study, we apply multiple dating methods to genome-wide datasets to infer the origin of extant species of Isoetes, a group of mostly aquatic and semi-aquatic isoetalean lycopsids, which closely resemble fossil forms dating back to the Triassic. Rate variation observed in chloroplast genomes hampers accurate dating, but genome-wide nuclear markers place the origin of extant diversity within this group in the mid-Paleogene, 45-60 million years ago. Our genomic analyses coupled with a careful evaluation of the fossil record indicate that despite resembling forms from the Triassic, extant Isoetes species do not represent the remnants of an ancient and widespread group, but instead have spread around the globe in the relatively recent past.

Rates and Rocks: Strengths and Weaknesses of Molecular Dating Methods

I present here an in-depth, although non-exhaustive, review of two topics in molecular dating. Clock models, which describe the evolution of the rate of evolution, are considered first. Some of the shortcomings of popular approaches-uncorrelated clock models in particular-are presented and discussed. Autocorrelated models are shown to be more reasonable from a biological perspective. Some of the most recent autocorrelated models also rely on a coherent treatment of instantaneous and average substitution rates while previous models are based on implicit approximations. Second, I provide a brief overview of the processes involved in collecting and preparing fossil data. I then review the main techniques that use this data for calibrating the molecular clock. I argue that, in its current form, the fossilized birth-death process relies on assumptions about the mechanisms underlying fossilization and the data collection process that may negatively impact the date estimates. Node-dating approaches make better use of the data available, even though they rest on paleontologists' intervention to prepare raw fossil data. Altogether, this study provides indications that may help practitioners in selecting appropriate methods for molecular dating. It will also hopefully participate in defining the contour of future methodological developments in the field.

Phylogeny of the Subtribe Monoctonina (Hymenoptera, Braconidae, Aphidiinae)

Members of the Monoctonina subtribe have long been neglected in applied studies of the subfamily Aphidiinae, due to their low economic importance, as they do not parasitize pests of cultivated plants. Consequently, data about this group are scarce, including its taxonomy and phylogeny. In the present study, we explore inter- and intraspecific genetic variation of Monoctonina species, including genera Monoctonus Haliday 1833, Monoctonia Starý 1962, Falciconus Mackauer 1959 and Harkeria Cameron 1900. We employ two molecular markers, the barcode region of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and the D2 region of the 28S nuclear gene (28S rDNA), to analyze genetic structuring and phylogeny of all available Monoctonina species, and combine them with morphological data for an integrative approach. We report one new species, and three potentially new species which can be formally described when further specimens are available. Analysis of phylogenetic relationships within the subtribe shows a basal position for the genera Falciconus and Monoctonia, and the close relatedness of Harkeria and Monoctonus.

A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Tip-Dating Under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Bayesian molecular dating is widely used to study evolutionary timescales. This procedure usually involves phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequence data, with fossil-based calibrations applied as age constraints on internal nodes of the tree. An alternative approach is tip-dating, which explicitly includes fossil data in the analysis. This can be done, for example, through the joint analysis of molecular data from present-day taxa and morphological data from both extant and fossil taxa. In the context of tip-dating, an important development has been the fossilized birth-death process, which allows non-contemporaneous tips and sampled ancestors while providing a model of lineage diversification for the prior on the tree topology and internal node times. However, tip-dating with fossils faces a number of considerable challenges, especially, those associated with fossil sampling and evolutionary models for morphological characters. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model. We simulated fossil occurrences and the evolution of nucleotide sequences and morphological characters under a wide range of conditions. Our analyses of these data show that the number and the maximum age of fossil occurrences have a greater influence than the degree of among-lineage rate variation or the number of morphological characters on estimates of node times and the tree topology. Tip-dating with the fossilized birth-death model generally performs well in recovering the relationships among extant taxa but has difficulties in correctly placing fossil taxa in the tree and identifying the number of sampled ancestors. The method yields accurate estimates of the ages of the root and crown group, although the precision of these estimates varies with the probability of fossil occurrence. The exclusion of morphological characters results in a slight overestimation of node times, whereas the exclusion of nucleotide sequences has a negative impact on inference of the tree topology. Our results provide an overview of the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model, which will inform further development of the method and its application to key questions in evolutionary biology.