Assessing species saturation: conceptual and methodological challenges

A new perspective on the spatial, environmental, and metacommunity controls of local biodiversity

Influential ecological research in the 1980s, elucidating that local biodiversity (LB) is a function of local ecological factors and the size of the regional species pool (γ-diversity), has prompted numerous investigations on the local and regional origins of LB. These investigations, however, have been mostly limited to single scales and target groups and centered exclusively on γ-diversity. Here we developed a unified framework including scale, environmental factors (heterogeneity and ambient levels), and metacommunity properties (intraspecific spatial aggregation, regional evenness, and γ-diversity) as hierarchical predictors of LB. We tested this framework with variance partitioning and structural equation modeling using subcontinental data on stream diatoms, insects, and fish as well as local physicochemistry, climate, and land use. Pure aggregation + regional evenness outperformed pure γ-diversity in explaining LB across groups. The covariance of the environment with aggregation + regional evenness rather than with γ-diversity generally explained a much greater proportion of the variance in diatom and insect LB, especially at smaller scales. Thus, disregarding aggregation and regional evenness, as commonly done, may lead to gross underestimation of the pure metacommunity effects and the indirect environmental effects on LB. We examined the shape of the local-regional species richness relationship, which has been widely used to infer local vs. regional effects on LB. We showed that this shape has an ecological basis, but its interpretation is not straightforward. Therefore, we advocate that the variance partitioning analysis under the proposed framework is adopted instead. In diatoms, metacommunity properties had the greatest total effects on LB, while in insects and fish, it was the environment, suggesting that larger organisms are more strongly controlled by the environment. Broader use of our framework may lead to novel biogeographical insights into the drivers of LB and improved projections of its trends along current and future environmental gradients.

Extinction debt and functional traits mediate community saturation over large spatiotemporal scales

Determining if ecological communities are saturated (have a limit to the number of species they can support) has important implications for understanding community assembly, species invasions, and climate change. However, previous studies have generally been limited to short time frames that overlook extinction debt and have not explicitly considered how functional trait diversity may mediate patterns of community saturation. Here, we combine data from biodiversity surveys with functional and phylogenetic data to explore if the colonisation events after the Great American Biotic Interchange (closure of the Panamanian Isthmus) resulted in increases in species richness of communities of the snake family Dipsadidae. We determined the number and the direction of dispersal events between Central and South America by estimating ancestral areas based on a Bayesian time-calibrated phylogenetic analysis. We then evaluated whether variation in community saturation was mediated by the functional similarity of six traits for the resident and colonizing snakes and/or local environmental conditions. We found that colonised communities did not support more species than those that were not colonised. Moreover, we did not find an association between the functional diversity across sites and whether they were colonised by members from the lineages dispersing across the Isthmus or not. Instead, variation in species richness was predicted best by covariates such as time since colonisation and local environment. Taken together, our results suggest that snake communities of the Dipsadidae across the neotropics are saturated. Moreover, our research highlights two important factors to consider in studies of community saturation: extinction debt and the functional differences and similarities in species' ecological roles.

Vegetation complexity and pool size predict species richness of forest birds

Disentangling regional and local drivers of species richness in communities is a long-term focus of ecology. Regional species pools affect local communities by providing their constituent species. Additionally, the amount and variety of resources enhance diversity locally. Here, we investigated whether the same ecological factor (vegetation complexity) shapes both regional and local species richness and thus drives local diversity both indirectly (via pool size) and directly (via facilitating the coexistence of species). We studied passerine birds of woodlands and forests in eastern Australia. We quantified regional species pool size and sampled local bird communities at 63 transects spanning 3,000 km. We estimated canopy height both regionally using satellite imagery and locally using vegetation sampling in the field. We studied how species pool size changed with regional canopy height and water availability, and how local species richness changed with pool size and local canopy height. Local species richness increased with both local canopy height and the size of the regional species pool. Pool size, in turn, increased with regional canopy height, which itself increased with water availability. Moreover, local species richness expressed as a proportion of the regional pool also increased with local canopy height. In sum, vegetation complexity indexed by canopy height had a doubly positive effect on local species richness: indirectly by promoting a large regional species pool and directly by facilitating the coexistence of disproportionately many species locally. Regional pools were larger in tall forests probably due to the legacy of extensive moist forests that once covered most of Australia, thus providing a sizeable potential for speciation, diversification, and species persistence. Local species richness was greater in tall, more productive forests with more vegetation layers likely due to more and varied resources (i.e., more potential niches), allowing the coexistence of more individuals and species of consumers.

Productivity, niche availability, species richness, and extinction risk: Untangling relationships using individual-based simulations

It has often been suggested that the productivity of an ecosystem affects the number of species that it can support. Despite decades of study, the nature, extent, and underlying mechanisms of this relationship are unclear. One suggested mechanism is the "more individuals" hypothesis (MIH). This proposes that productivity controls the number of individuals in the ecosystem, and that more individuals can be divided into a greater number of species before their population size is sufficiently small for each to be at substantial risk of extinction. Here, we test this hypothesis using REvoSim: an individual-based eco-evolutionary system that simulates the evolution and speciation of populations over geological time, allowing phenomena occurring over timescales that cannot be easily observed in the real world to be evaluated. The individual-based nature of this system allows us to remove assumptions about the nature of speciation and extinction that previous models have had to make. Many of the predictions of the MIH are supported in our simulations: Rare species are more likely to undergo extinction than common species, and species richness scales with productivity. However, we also find support for relationships that contradict the predictions of the strict MIH: species population size scales with productivity, and species extinction risk is better predicted by relative than absolute species population size, apparently due to increased competition when total community abundance is higher. Furthermore, we show that the scaling of species richness with productivity depends upon the ability of species to partition niche space. Consequently, we suggest that the MIH is applicable only to ecosystems in which niche partitioning has not been halted by species saturation. Some hypotheses regarding patterns of biodiversity implicitly or explicitly overlook niche theory in favor of neutral explanations, as has historically been the case with the MIH. Our simulations demonstrate that niche theory exerts a control on the applicability of the MIH and thus needs to be accounted for in macroecology.