Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis

A North American climate-masting-irruption teleconnection and its change under future climate

Atmospheric variability can impact biological populations by triggering facultative migrations, but the stability of these atmosphere-biosphere connections may be vulnerable to climate change. As an example, we consider the leading mode of continental-scale facultative migration of Pine Siskins, where the associated ecological mechanism is changes in resource availability, with a mechanistic pathway of climate conditions affecting mast seeding patterns in trees which in turn drive bird migration. The three summers prior to pine siskin irruption feature an alternating west-east mast-seeding dipole in conifer trees with opposite anomalies over western and eastern North America. The climate driver of this west-east mast-seeding dipole, referred to as the North American Dipole, occurs during summer in the historical record, but shifts to spring in response to future climate warming during this century in a majority of global climate models. Identification of future changes in the timing of the climate driver of boreal forest mast seeding have broadly important implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems.

Population and community ecology: past progress and future directions

Population and community ecology as a science are about 100 years old, and we discuss here our opinion of what approaches have progressed well and which point to possible future directions. The three major threads within population and community ecology are theoretical ecology, statistical tests and models, and experimental ecology. We suggest that our major objective is to understand what factors determine the distribution and abundance of organisms within populations and communities, and we evaluate these threads against this major objective. Theoretical ecology is elegant and compelling and has laid the groundwork for achieving our overall objectives with useful simple models. Statistics and statistical models have contributed informative methods to analyze quantitatively our understanding of distribution and abundance for future research. Population ecology is difficult to carry out in the field, even though we may have all the statistical methods and models needed to achieve results. Community ecology is growing rapidly with much description but less understanding of why changes occur. Biodiversity science cuts across all these subdivisions but rarely digs into the necessary population and community science that might solve conservation problems. Climate change affects all aspects of ecology but to assume that everything in population and community ecology is driven by climate change is oversimplified. We make recommendations on how to advance the field with advice for present and future generations of population and community ecologists.

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

The phylogenetic relationship and demographic history of rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) in subtropical and temperate regions, China

Pleistocene climatic oscillations exerted significant influences on the genetic structure and demography of rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) in eastern China. However, the evolutionary history of rhesus macaques in subtropical and temperate China remained unclear and/or controversial. Herein, we analyzed the autosomes, mitochondrial genomes, and Y-chromosomes from 84 individuals of Chinese rhesus macaque. The results revealed that (1) all individuals were clustered into pan-west and pan-east genetic groups, which exhibited Shaanxi Province as the northernmost region of western dispersal route of rhesus macaques in China; (2) in subtropical and temperate China, rhesus macaques were divided into four lineages (TH, DB, HS, and QL), and their divergence times corresponded to the Penultimate Glaciation (300-130 kya) and Last Glaciation (70-10 kya), respectively; (3) the individuals from Mt. Taihangshan (TH) are closely related to individuals from Mt. Dabashan (DB) in the autosomal tree, rather than individuals from Mt. Huangshan (HS) as indicated by the mitogenome tree, which supports the hypothesis that the ancestral rhesus macaques radiated into Mt. Taihangshan from Mt. Huangshan via Mt. Dabashan; and (4) the demographic scenario of the four lineages showed the ancestral rhesus macaques bottleneck and expansion corresponding to the suitable habitat reduction and expansion, which confirmed they had experienced northward recolonization and southward retreat events from Mt. Huangshan area via Northern China Plain to Northernmost China along with Pleistocene glacial cycles. This study provides a new insight into understanding how Pleistocene glaciation has influenced faunal diversity in subtropical and temperate China, especially for those exhibiting differential patterns of sex dispersal.

Dolphin social phenotypes vary in response to food availability but not the North Atlantic Oscillation index

Social behaviours can allow individuals to flexibly respond to environmental change, potentially buffering adverse effects. However, individuals may respond differently to the same environmental stimulus, complicating predictions for population-level response to environmental change. Here, we show that bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) alter their social behaviour at yearly and monthly scales in response to a proxy for food availability (salmon abundance) but do not respond to variation in a proxy for climate (the North Atlantic Oscillation index). There was also individual variation in plasticity for gregariousness and connectedness to distant parts of the social network, although these traits showed limited repeatability. By contrast, individuals showed consistent differences in clustering with their immediate social environment at the yearly scale but no individual variation in plasticity for this trait at either timescale. These results indicate that social behaviour in free-ranging cetaceans can be highly resource dependent with individuals increasing their connectedness over short timescales but possibly reducing their wider range of connection at longer timescales. Some social traits showed more individual variation in plasticity or mean behaviour than others, highlighting how predictions for the responses of populations to environmental variation must consider the type of individual variation present in the population.

Environmental and climatic drivers of phenotypic evolution and distribution changes in a widely distributed subfamily of subterranean mammals

How environmental factors shape species morphology and distributions is a key issue in ecology, especially in similar environments. Species of Myospalacinae exhibit widespread distribution spanning the eastern Eurasian steppe and the extreme adaptation to the subterranean environment, providing an excellent opportunity for investigating species responses to environmental changes. At the national scale, we here use geometric morphometric and distributional data to assess the environmental and climatic drivers of morphological evolution and distribution of Myospalacinae species in China. Based on phylogenetic relationships of Myospalacinae species constructed using genomic data in China, we integrate geometric morphometrics and ecological niche models to reveal the interspecific variation of skull morphology, trace the ancestral state, and assess factors influencing interspecific variation. Our approach further allows us to project future distributions of Myospalacinae species throughout China. We found that the interspecific morphology variations were mainly concentrated in the temporal ridge, premaxillary-frontal suture, premaxillary-maxillary suture, and molars, and the skull morphology of the two current species in Myospalacinae followed the ancestral state; temperature and precipitation were important environmental variables influencing skull morphology. Elevation, temperature annual range, and precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as dominant factors affecting the distribution of Myospalacinae species in China, and their suitable habitat area will decrease in the future. Collectively, environmental and climate changes have an effect on skull phenotypes of subterranean mammals, highlighting the contribution of phenotypic differentiation in similar environments in the formation of species phenotypes. Climate change will further shrink their habitats under future climate assumptions in the short-term. Our findings provide new insights into effects of environmental and climate change on the morphological evolution and distribution of species as well as a reference for biodiversity conservation and species management.

Stochastic resonance in climate reddening increases the risk of cyclic ecosystem extinction via phase-tipping

Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent work indicates that the changing variability, that is, the amplitude and the temporal autocorrelation of deviations from the mean, may have greater and more imminent impact on ecosystems. In this paper, we demonstrate that changes in climate variability alone could drive cyclic predator-prey ecosystems to extinction via so-called phase-tipping (P-tipping), a new type of instability that occurs only from certain phases of the predator-prey cycle. We construct a mathematical model of a variable climate and couple it to two self-oscillating paradigmatic predator-prey models. Most importantly, we combine realistic parameter values for the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare with actual climate data from the boreal forest. In this way, we demonstrate that critically important species in the boreal forest have increased likelihood of P-tipping to extinction under predicted changes in climate variability, and are most vulnerable during stages of the cycle when the predator population is near its maximum. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stochastic resonance is the underlying mechanism for the increased likelihood of P-tipping to extinction.

Survival rates in the world's southernmost forest bird community

The Magellanic sub-Antarctic Forest is home to the world's southernmost avian community and is the only Southern Hemisphere analogue to Northern Hemisphere temperate forests at this latitude. This region is considered among the few remaining pristine areas of the world, and shifts in environmental conditions are predominantly driven by climate variability. Thus, understanding climate-driven demographic processes is critical for addressing conservation issues in this system under future climate change scenarios. Here, we describe annual survival patterns and their association with climate variables using a 20-year mark-recapture data set of five forest bird species in the Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve. We develop a multispecies hierarchical survival model to jointly explore age-dependent survival probabilities at the community and species levels in a group of five forest passerines. At the community level, we assess the association of migratory behavior and body size with survival, and at the species level, we investigate the influence of local and regional climatic variables on temporal variations of survival. We found a positive effect of precipitation and a negative effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on juvenile survival in the white-crested Elaenia and a consistent but uncertain negative effect of temperature on survival in juveniles and 80% of adults. We found only a weak association of climate variables with survival across species in the community and no temporal trends in survival for any of the species in either age class, highlighting apparent stability in these high austral latitude forests. Finally, our findings provide an important resource of survival probabilities, a necessary input for assessing potential impacts of global climate change in this unique region of the world.

Consolidation of temperature-dependent toxicity and thermoregulatory behavior into risk assessments of insecticides under thermal scenarios: A prospective study on Eremias argus

In this study, the temperature-dependent chemical toxicity of three insecticides and the resulting thermoregulatory (TR) behavior of the lizard Eremias argus have been consolidated into the current risk assessment framework. According to acute dermal toxicity assays, an increase of ambient temperature from 15 °C to 35 °C decreased the acute dermal toxicity of beta-cyfluthrin (BC) but increased the toxicity of chlorpyrifos (CPF). The toxicity of avermectin (AVM) did not show significant temperature-dependent responses. Based on thermal preference trials, lizards changed their body temperature via TR behavior to adaptively reduce toxicity under sub-lethal doses, which can be understood as a "self-rescue" behavior attenuating lethal effects. However, the risk quotient indicated that the effectiveness of this "self-rescue" behavior is limited. Metabolomics analysis showed that six different metabolites (i.e., creatine, glutamate, succinate, N-acetylaspartate, acetylcholine, and lactate) contributed to TR behavior changes. Biochemical assays and insecticide residue results demonstrated that the temperature-dependent toxicity of BC, CPF, and AVM affected lizards in the three aspects of biotransformation, oxidative stress, and neurometabolic interference. This work clarifies the ecotoxicological impacts of representative insecticides on reptiles from toxicological understanding to risk relevance. This knowledge may improve ecological predictions of agrochemical applications in the context of global climate change.

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

Climate change affects ecosystems and human health in multiple dimensions. With the acceleration of climate change, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose an increasing threat to public health. This paper summaries 10 publications on the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human health; then it synthesizes the other existing literature to more broadly explain how climate change drives the transmission and spread of VBDs through an ecological perspective. We highlight the multi-dimensional nature of climate change, its interaction with other factors, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transmission and spread of VBDs, specifically including: (1) the generally nonlinear relationship of local climate (temperature, precipitation and wind) and VBD transmission, with temperature especially exhibiting an n-shape relation; (2) the time-lagged effect of regional climate phenomena (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation) on VBD transmission; (3) the u-shaped effect of extreme climate (heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts) on VBD spread; (4) how interactions between non-climatic (land use and human mobility) and climatic factors increase VBD transmission and spread; and (5) that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change is debatable, and its impact on VBDs remains uncertain. By exploring the influence of climate change and non-climatic factors on VBD transmission and spread, this paper provides scientific understanding and guidance for their effective prevention and control.