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Hallman TA, Robinson WD. Supplemental structured surveys and pre-existing detection models improve fine-scale density and population estimation with opportunistic community science data. Sci Rep 2024; 14:11070. [PMID: 38745056 PMCID: PMC11094051 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-61582-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Density and population estimates aid in conservation and stakeholder communication. While free and broadly available community science data can effectively inform species distribution models, they often lack the information necessary to estimate imperfect detection and area sampled, thus limiting their use in fine-scale density modeling. We used structured distance-sampling surveys to model detection probability and calculate survey-specific detection offsets in community science models. We estimated density and population for 16 songbird species under three frameworks: (1) a fixed framework that assumes perfect detection within a specified survey radius, (2) an independent framework that calculates offsets from an independent source, and (3) a calibration framework that calculates offsets from supplemental surveys. Within the calibration framework, we examined the effects of calibration dataset size and data pooling. Estimates of density and population size were consistently biased low in the fixed framework. The independent and calibration frameworks produced reliable estimates for some species, but biased estimates for others, indicating discrepancies in detection probability between structured and community science surveys. The calibration framework produced reliable population estimates with as few as 10 calibration surveys with positive detections. Data pooling dramatically decreased bias. This study provides conservationists and managers with a cost-effective method of estimating density and population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler A Hallman
- Oak Creek Lab of Biology, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland.
- Department of Biology and Chemistry, Queens University of Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
- School of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, LL57 2DG, UK.
| | - W Douglas Robinson
- Oak Creek Lab of Biology, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
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2
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Micheletti T, Haché S, Stralberg D, Stewart FEC, Chubaty AM, Barros C, Bayne EM, Cumming SG, Docherty TDS, Dookie A, Duclos I, Eddy IMS, Gadallah Z, Haas CA, Hodson J, Leblond M, Mahon CL, Schmiegelow F, Tremblay JA, Van Wilgenburg SL, Westwood AR, McIntire EJB. Will this umbrella leak? A caribou umbrella index for boreal landbird conservation. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tatiane Micheletti
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Samuel Haché
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - Diana Stralberg
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Frances E. C. Stewart
- Biology Department Wilfrid Laurier University Canada
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | | | - Ceres Barros
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Erin M. Bayne
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Steven G. Cumming
- Department of Wood and Forest Sciences Laval University Quebec City Quebec Canada
| | | | - Amanda Dookie
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Gatineau Quebec Canada
| | - Isabelle Duclos
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - Ian M. S. Eddy
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | - Zuzu Gadallah
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Gatineau Quebec Canada
| | - Claudia A. Haas
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources Government of the Northwest Territories Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - James Hodson
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources Government of the Northwest Territories Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - Mathieu Leblond
- Landscape Science and Technology Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Ottawa Ontario Canada
| | - C. Lisa Mahon
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Whitehorse Yukon Territories Canada
| | - Fiona Schmiegelow
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Yukon Research Centre Yukon University Whitehorse Yukon Territories Canada
| | - Junior A. Tremblay
- Department of Wood and Forest Sciences Laval University Quebec City Quebec Canada
- Wildlife Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Quebec City Quebec Canada
| | | | - Alana R. Westwood
- School for Resource and Environmental Studies Dalhousie University K'jipuktuk (Halifax) Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Eliot J. B. McIntire
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
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3
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Floury M, Pollock LJ, Buisson L, Thuiller W, Chandesris A, Souchon Y. Combining expert‐based and computational approaches to design protected river networks under climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Floury
- RiverLY Research Unit National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE) Villeurbanne France
- Univ Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, ENTPE, UMR 5023 LEHNA Villeurbanne F‐69622 France
| | - Laura J. Pollock
- Department of Biology McGill University, 1205 Dr. Penfield Montreal Québec H3A 1B1 Canada
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine, F‐38000 Grenoble France
| | - Laëtitia Buisson
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse INP, Université Toulouse 3 ‐ Paul Sabatier (UPS) Toulouse France
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine, F‐38000 Grenoble France
| | - André Chandesris
- RiverLY Research Unit National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE) Villeurbanne France
| | - Yves Souchon
- RiverLY Research Unit National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE) Villeurbanne France
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4
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Matias G, Rosalino LM, Rosa JL, Monterroso P. Wildcat population density in
NE
Portugal: A regional stronghold for a nationally threatened felid. POPUL ECOL 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/1438-390x.12088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Gonçalo Matias
- cE3c‐Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon Portugal
| | - Luís Miguel Rosalino
- cE3c‐Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon Portugal
| | - José Luís Rosa
- Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e Florestas Bragança Portugal
| | - Pedro Monterroso
- CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos Universidade do Porto Vairão Portugal
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5
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Salgado Kent C, Bouchet P, Wellard R, Parnum I, Fouda L, Erbe C. Seasonal productivity drives aggregations of killer whales and other cetaceans over submarine canyons of the Bremer Sub-Basin, south-western Australia. AUSTRALIAN MAMMALOGY 2021. [DOI: 10.1071/am19058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
Cetaceans are iconic predators that serve as important indicators of marine ecosystem health. The Bremer Sub-Basin, south-western Australia, supports a diverse cetacean community including the largest documented aggregation of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Australian waters. Knowledge of cetacean distributions is critical for managing the area’s thriving ecotourism industry, yet is largely sporadic. Here we combined aerial with opportunistic ship-borne surveys during 2015–2017 to describe the occurrence of multiple cetacean species on a regional scale. We used generalised estimating equations to model variation in killer whale relative density as a function of both static and dynamic covariates, including seabed depth, slope, and chlorophyll a concentration, while accounting for autocorrelation. Encountered cetacean groups included: killer (n=177), sperm (n=69), long-finned pilot (n=29), false killer (n=2), and strap-toothed beaked (n=1) whales, as well as bottlenose (n=12) and common (n=5) dolphins. Killer whale numbers peaked in areas of low temperatures and high primary productivity, likely due to seasonal upwelling of nutrient-rich waters supporting high prey biomass. The best predictive model highlighted potential killer whale ‘hotspots’ in the Henry, Hood, Pallinup and Bremer Canyons. This study demonstrates the value of abundance data from platforms of opportunity for marine planning and wildlife management in the open ocean.
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6
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Johnston A, Auer T, Fink D, Strimas-Mackey M, Iliff M, Rosenberg KV, Brown S, Lanctot R, Rodewald AD, Kelling S. Comparing abundance distributions and range maps in spatial conservation planning for migratory species. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02058. [PMID: 31838775 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2018] [Revised: 07/15/2019] [Accepted: 09/17/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Most spatial conservation planning for wide-ranging or migratory species is constrained by poor knowledge of species' spatiotemporal dynamics and is only based on static species' ranges. However, species have substantial variation in abundance across their range and migratory species have important spatiotemporal population dynamics. With growing ecological data and advancing analytics, both of these can be estimated and incorporated into spatial conservation planning. However, there is limited information on the degree to which including this information affects conservation planning. We compared the performance of systematic conservation prioritizations for different scenarios based on varying the input species' distributions by ecological metric (abundance distributions versus range maps) and temporal sampling resolution (weekly, monthly, or quarterly). We used the example of a community of 41 species of migratory shorebirds that breed in North America, and we used eBird data to produce weekly estimates of species' abundances and ranges. Abundance distributions at a monthly or weekly resolution led to prioritizations that most efficiently protected species throughout the full annual cycle. Conversely, spatial prioritizations based on species' ranges required more sites and left most species insufficiently protected for at least part of their annual cycle. Prioritizations with only quarterly species ranges were very inefficient as they needed to target 40% of species' ranges to include 10% of populations. We highlight the high value of abundance information for spatial conservation planning, which leads to more efficient and effective spatial prioritization for conservation. Overall, we provide evidence that spatial conservation planning for wide-ranging migratory species is most robust and efficient when informed by species' abundance information from the full annual cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Johnston
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
- Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, United Kingdom
| | - T Auer
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
| | - D Fink
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
| | - M Strimas-Mackey
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
| | - M Iliff
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
| | - K V Rosenberg
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
- American Bird Conservancy, The Plains, Virginia, 20198, USA
| | - S Brown
- Manomet Inc., P.O. Box 1770, Manomet, Massachusetts, 02345, USA
| | - R Lanctot
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1011 East Tudor Road, MS 201, Anchorage, Alaska, 99503, USA
| | - A D Rodewald
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
- Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 14853, USA
| | - S Kelling
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York, 14850, USA
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7
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Associations of breeding-bird abundance with climate vary among species and trait-based groups in southern California. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0230614. [PMID: 32231388 PMCID: PMC7108724 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2019] [Accepted: 03/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
The responses of individuals and populations to climate change vary as functions of physiology, ecology, and plasticity. We investigated whether annual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation was associated with relative abundances of breeding bird species at local and regional levels in southern California, USA, from 1968-2013. We tested our hypotheses that abundances were correlated positively with precipitation and negatively with temperature in this semiarid to arid region. We also examined whether responses to climate varied among groups of species with similar land-cover associations, nesting locations, and migratory patterns. We investigated relations between seasonal climate variables and the relative abundances of 41 species as estimated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Associations with climate variables varied among species. Results of models of species associated with arid scrublands or that nest on the ground strongly supported our hypotheses, whereas those of species associated with coniferous forests or that nest in cavities did not. Associations between climate variables and the abundances of other trait-based groups were diverse. Our results suggest that species in arid areas may be negatively affected by increased temperature and aridity, but species in nearby areas that are cooler and less arid may respond positively to those fluctuations in climate. Relations with climate variables can differ among similar species, and such knowledge may inform projections of future abundance trajectories and geographic ranges.
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8
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Devenish C, Nuñez Cortez E, Buchanan G, Smith GR, Marsden SJ. Estimating ecological metrics for holistic conservation management in a biodiverse but information‐poor tropical region. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Christian Devenish
- Department of Natural SciencesManchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
| | | | - Graeme Buchanan
- RSPB Centre for Conservation ScienceThe Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Sandy UK
| | - Graham R. Smith
- Department of Natural SciencesManchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
| | - Stuart J. Marsden
- Department of Natural SciencesManchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
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9
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Webb MH, Heinsohn R, Sutherland WJ, Stojanovic D, Terauds A. An Empirical and Mechanistic Explanation of Abundance-Occupancy Relationships for a Critically Endangered Nomadic Migrant. Am Nat 2019; 193:59-69. [PMID: 30624105 DOI: 10.1086/700595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
The positive abundance-occupancy relationship (AOR) is a pervasive pattern in macroecology. Similarly, the association between occupancy (or probability of occurrence) and abundance is also usually assumed to be positive and in most cases constant. Examples of AORs for nomadic species with variable distributions are extremely rare. Here we examined temporal and spatial trends in the AOR over 7 years for a critically endangered nomadic migrant that relies on dynamic pulses in food availability to breed. We predicted a negative temporal relationship, where local mean abundances increase when the number of occupied sites decreases, and a positive relationship between local abundances and the probability of occurrence. We also predicted that these patterns are largely attributable to spatiotemporal variation in food abundance. The temporal AOR was significantly negative, and annual food availability was significantly positively correlated with the number of occupied sites but negatively correlated with abundance. Thus, as food availability decreased, local densities of birds increased, and vice versa. The abundance-probability of occurrence relationship was positive and nonlinear but varied between years due to differing degrees of spatial aggregation caused by changing food availability. Importantly, high abundance (or occupancy) did not necessarily equate to high-quality habitat and may be indicative of resource bottlenecks or exposure to other processes affecting vital rates. Our results provide a rare empirical example that highlights the complexity of AORs for species that target aggregated food resources in dynamic environments.
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10
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Faleiro FV, Nemésio A, Loyola R. Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:2272-2283. [PMID: 29498787 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2017] [Revised: 01/13/2018] [Accepted: 01/26/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frederico Valtuille Faleiro
- Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação, Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil
| | - André Nemésio
- Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia, MG, Brazil
| | - Rafael Loyola
- Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação, Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil
- Centro Nacional de Conservação da Flora, Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
- Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change - Rede Clima, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
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11
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Yang L, Zhang C, Chen M, Li J, Yang L, Huo Z, Ahmad S, Luan X. Long-term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black-billed capercaillie ( Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s-2070s). Ecol Evol 2018; 8:3862-3870. [PMID: 29721263 PMCID: PMC5916277 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2017] [Revised: 12/16/2017] [Accepted: 01/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Yang
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Chao Zhang
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Minhao Chen
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Jingxin Li
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Lei Yang
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Zhaomin Huo
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Shahid Ahmad
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Xiaofeng Luan
- School of Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
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12
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Devenish C, Buchanan GM, Smith GR, Marsden SJ. Extreme and complex variation in range-wide abundances across a threatened Neotropical bird community. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Christian Devenish
- Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology; School of Science and the Environment; Manchester Metropolitan University; Manchester UK
| | | | - Graham R. Smith
- Division of Geography and Environmental Management; School of Science and the Environment; Manchester Metropolitan University; Manchester UK
| | - Stuart J. Marsden
- Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology; School of Science and the Environment; Manchester Metropolitan University; Manchester UK
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13
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Alexander JD, Stephens JL, Veloz S, Salas L, Rousseau JS, Ralph CJ, Sarr DA. Using regional bird density distribution models to evaluate protected area networks and inform conservation planning. Ecosphere 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Sam Veloz
- Point Blue Conservation Science; 3820 Cypress Drive #11 Petaluma California 94954 USA
| | - Leo Salas
- Point Blue Conservation Science; 3820 Cypress Drive #11 Petaluma California 94954 USA
| | | | - C. John Ralph
- Klamath Bird Observatory; P.O. Box 758 Ashland Oregon 97520 USA
- U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station-Arcata; 1700 Bayview Street Arcata California 95521 USA
| | - Daniel A. Sarr
- Klamath Network, National Park Service; 1250 Siskiyou Boulevard Ashland Oregon 97520 USA
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14
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Lacasella F, Marta S, Singh A, Stack Whitney K, Hamilton K, Townsend P, Kucharik CJ, Meehan TD, Gratton C. From pest data to abundance-based risk maps combining eco-physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2017; 27:575-588. [PMID: 27859850 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2016] [Revised: 10/03/2016] [Accepted: 10/21/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Noxious species, i.e., crop pest or invasive alien species, are major threats to both natural and managed ecosystems. Invasive pests are of special importance, and knowledge about their distribution and abundance is fundamental to minimize economic losses and prioritize management activities. Occurrence models are a common tool used to identify suitable zones and map priority areas (i.e., risk maps) for noxious species management, although they provide a simplified description of species dynamics (i.e., no indication on species density). An alternative is to use abundance models, but translating abundance data into risk maps is often challenging. Here, we describe a general framework for generating abundance-based risk maps using multi-year pest data. We used an extensive data set of 3968 records collected between 2003 and 2013 in Wisconsin during annual surveys of soybean aphid (SBA), an exotic invasive pest in this region. By using an integrative approach, we modelled SBA responses to weather, seasonal, and habitat variability using generalized additive models (GAMs). Our models showed good to excellent performance in predicting SBA occurrence and abundance (TSS = 0.70, AUC = 0.92; R2 = 0.63). We found that temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days were the main drivers of SBA trends. In addition, a significant positive relationship between SBA abundance and the availability of overwintering habitats was observed. Our models showed aphid populations were also sensitive to thresholds associated with high and low temperatures, likely related to physiological tolerances of the insects. Finally, the resulting aphid predictions were integrated using a spatial prioritization algorithm ("Zonation") to produce an abundance-based risk map for the state of Wisconsin that emphasized the spatiotemporal consistency and magnitude of past infestation patterns. This abundance-based risk map can provide information on potential foci of pest outbreaks where scouting efforts and prophylactic measures should be concentrated. The approach we took is general, relatively simple, and can be applied to other species, habitats and geographical areas for which species abundance data and biotic and abiotic data are available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Federica Lacasella
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Silvio Marta
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Aditya Singh
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | | | - Krista Hamilton
- Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Madison, Wisconsin, 54601, USA
| | - Phil Townsend
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Christopher J Kucharik
- Department of Agronomy and Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and Global Change, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Timothy D Meehan
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Claudio Gratton
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
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15
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Morin DJ, Fuller AK, Royle JA, Sutherland C. Model-based estimators of density and connectivity to inform conservation of spatially structured populations. Ecosphere 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Dana J. Morin
- New York Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Department of Natural Resources; Cornell University; 211 Fernow Hall Ithaca New York 14853 USA
| | - Angela K. Fuller
- U.S. Geological Survey; New York Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Department of Natural Resources; Cornell University; 211 Fernow Hall Ithaca New York 14853 USA
| | - J. Andrew Royle
- U.S. Geological Survey; Patuxent Wildlife Research Center; 12000 Beech Forest Road Laurel Maryland 20708 USA
| | - Chris Sutherland
- Department of Environmental Conservation; University of Massachusetts-Amherst; 118 Holdsworth Hall Amherst Massachusetts 01003 USA
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