Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity

Habitat remediation followed by managed connectivity reduces unwanted changes in evolutionary trajectory of high extirpation risk populations

As we continue to convert green spaces into roadways and buildings, connectivity between populations and biodiversity will continue to decline. In threatened and endangered species, this trend is particularly concerning because the cessation of immigration can cause increased inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, leading to lower adaptability and higher extirpation probabilities in these populations. Unfortunately, monitoring changes in genetic diversity from management actions such as assisted migration and predicting the extent of introduced genetic variation that is needed to prevent extirpation is difficult and costly in situ. Therefore, we designed an agent-based model to link population-wide genetic variability and the influx of unique alleles via immigration to population stability and extirpation outcomes. These models showed that management of connectivity can be critical in restoring at-risk populations and reducing the effects of inbreeding depression. However, the rescued populations were more similar to the migrant source population (average FST range 0.05-0.10) compared to the historical recipient population (average FST range 0.23-0.37). This means that these management actions not only recovered the populations from the effects of inbreeding depression, but they did so in a way that changed the evolutionary trajectory that was predicted and expected for these populations prior to the population crash. This change was most extreme in populations with the smallest population sizes, which are representative of critically endangered species that could reasonably be considered candidates for restored connectivity or translocation strategies. Understanding how these at-risk populations change in response to varying management interventions has broad implications for the long-term adaptability of these populations and can improve future efforts for protecting locally adapted allele complexes when connectivity is restored.

Restoring spatiotemporal variability to enhance the capacity for dispersal-limited species to track climate change

Climate refugia are areas where species can persist through climate change with little to no movement. Among the factors associated with climate refugia are high spatial heterogeneity, such that there is only a short distance between current and future optimal climates, as well as biotic or abiotic environmental factors that buffer against variability in time. However, these types of climate refugia may be declining due to anthropogenic homogenization of environments and degradation of environmental buffers. To quantify the potential for restoration of refugia-like environmental conditions to increase population persistence under climate change, we simulated a population's capacity to track their temperature over space and time given different levels of spatial and temporal variability in temperature. To determine how species traits affected the efficacy of restoring heterogeneity, we explored an array of values for species' dispersal ability, thermal tolerance, and fecundity. We found that species were more likely to persist in environments with higher spatial heterogeneity and lower environmental stochasticity. When simulating a management action that increased the spatial heterogeneity of a previously homogenized environment, species were more likely to persist through climate change, and population sizes were generally higher, but there was little effect with mild temperature change. The benefits of heterogeneity restoration were greatest for species with limited dispersal ability. In contrast, species with longer dispersal but lower fecundity were more likely to benefit from a reduction in environmental stochasticity than an increase in spatial heterogeneity. Our results suggest that restoring environments to refugia-like conditions could promote species' persistence under the influence of climate change in addition to conservation strategies such as assisted migration, corridors, and increased protection.

Climate change reduces long-term population benefits from no-take marine protected areas through selective pressures on species movement

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools that confer ecosystem benefits by removing fishing within their borders to allow stocks to rebuild. Fishing mortality outside a traditionally fixed MPA can exert selective pressure for low movement alleles, resulting in enhanced protection. While evolving to move less may be useful for conservation presently, it could be detrimental in the face of climate change for species that need to move to track their thermal optimum. Here, we build a spatially explicit simulation model to assess the impact of movement evolution in and around static MPAs resulting from both fishing mortality and temperature-dependent natural mortality on conservation benefits across five climate scenarios: (i) linear mean temperature shift, (ii) El Niño/La Niña conditions, (iii) heat waves, (iv) heatwaves with a mean temperature shift, and (v) no climate change. While movement evolution allows populations within MPAs to survive longer, we find that over time, climate change degrades the benefits by selecting for higher movement genotypes. Resulting population declines within MPAs are faster than expected based on climate mortality alone, even within the largest MPAs. Our findings suggest that while static MPAs may conserve species for a time, other strategies, such as dynamic MPA networks or assisted migration, may also be required to effectively incorporate climate change into conservation planning.

Managing uncertainty in decision-making for conservation science

Science-based decision-making is the ideal. However, scientific knowledge is incomplete, and sometimes wrong. Responsible science-based policy, planning, and action must exploit knowledge while managing uncertainty. I considered the info-gap method to manage deep uncertainty surrounding knowledge that is used for decision-making in conservation. A central concept is satisficing, which means satisfying a critical requirement. Alternative decisions are prioritized based on their robustness to uncertainty, and critical outcome requirements are satisficed. Robustness is optimized; outcome is satisficed. This is called robust satisficing. A decision with a suboptimal outcome may be preferred over a decision with a putatively optimal outcome if the former can more robustly achieve an acceptable outcome. Many biodiversity conservation applications employ info-gap theory, under which parameter uncertainty but not uncertainty in functional relations is considered. I considered info-gap models of functional uncertainty, widely used outside of conservation science, as applied to conservation of a generic endangered species by translocation to a new region. I focused on 2 uncertainties: the future temperature is uncertain due to climate change, and the shape of the reproductive output function is uncertain due to translocation to an unfamiliar region. The value of new information is demonstrated based on the robustness function, and the info-gap opportuneness function demonstrates the potential for better-than-anticipated outcomes.

Plant provenance can influence the impacts of temperature and moisture on intraspecific competition in Pseudoroegneria spicata

Warming and changing precipitation can alter the performance of native grasses that are essential to grassland ecosystems. Native grasses may respond to changing climate by phenotypic plasticity or lose their current ranges. Establishing plant species from southern, warmer provenances may reduce the likelihood of biodiversity loss and improve restoration success in cool, northern locations that are undergoing warming. We conducted competition trials for Pseudoroegneria spicata (bluebunch wheatgrass), a native grass commonly found in western North American grasslands, to understand the impact of temperature and moisture on plant-plant interactions. We obtained seeds from three locations along a latitudinal gradient in North America, two in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and one in California, USA. We compared the effects of warming, changing water inputs, and competitor provenance on pairwise competitive interactions among Pseudoroegneria spicata plants grown from seeds obtained from the three locations. We quantified interactions using the relative interaction intensity, which has values from -1 (complete competition) to +1 (complete facilitation). Target plants from northern British Columbia, the location with the coldest summer temperature, were generally more competitively suppressed when competing with plants from California, which had the warmest summer temperature and lowest summer precipitation. Competitive suppression of target plants from northern British Columbia and southern British Columbia was more intense when competitor provenance was more geographically distant from target plant provenance. Finally, plants from northern British Columbia and southern British Columbia were more suppressed at higher temperatures, indicating some local adaptation, while plants from California were not affected by competitors, temperature, or water input. Plants grown from seeds obtained from warm and dry locations appear to be more tolerant to competition at higher temperatures, compared to plants from cooler regions. Native plant diversity and restoration success in grasslands subjected to climate change may be preserved or improved by assisted migration of seeds from warm to cooler but warming locations.

Comparing management strategies for conserving communities of climate-threatened species with a stochastic metacommunity model

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Temporal variation may have diverse impacts on range limits

Environmental fluctuations are pervasive in nature, but the influence of non-directional temporal variation on range limits has received scant attention. We synthesize insights from the literature and use simple models to make conceptual points about the potentially wide range of ecological and evolutionary effects of temporal variation on range limits. Because organisms respond nonlinearly to environmental conditions, temporal variation can directionally alter long-term growth rates, either to shrink or to expand ranges. We illustrate this diversity of outcomes with a model of competition along a mortality gradient. Temporal variation can permit transitions between alternative states, potentially facilitating range expansion. We show this for variation in dispersal, using simple source-sink population models (with strong Allee effects, or with gene flow hampering local adaptation). Temporal variation enhances extinction risk owing to demographic stochasticity, rare events, and loss of genetic variation, all tending to shrink ranges. However, specific adaptations to exploit variation (including dispersal) may permit larger ranges than in similar but constant environments. Grappling with temporal variation is essential both to understand eco-evolutionary dynamics at range limits and to guide conservation and management strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.