Decision context as a necessary component of population viability analysis assessments: response to Chaudhary and Oli 2020

Addressing the impact of canine distemper spreading on an isolated tiger population in northeast Asia

The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size (including 38 individuals) and canine distemper virus (CDV). We use a population viability analysis metamodel, which consists of a traditional individual-based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model, to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas, increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population (including more than 400 individuals), and habitat expansion. Without intervention, under inbreeding depression of 3.14, 6.29, and 12.26 lethal equivalents, our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%, 90.6%, and 99.8%, respectively. In addition, the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years, and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining. However, when the above three conservation scenarios are combined, even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression, population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be <5.8%. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur tiger necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort. Our key management recommendations for this population underline the importance of reducing CDV threats and expanding tiger occupancy to its former range in China, but re-establishing habitat connectivity to the neighboring population is an important long-term objective.