Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences.

Range-wide population genomic structure of the Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus (Lycaeides) samuelis

The Karner blue butterfly, Plebejus (Lycaeides) samuelis, is an endangered North American climate change-vulnerable species that has undergone substantial historical habitat loss and population decline. To better understand the species' genetic status and support Karner blue conservation, we sampled 116 individuals from 22 localities across the species' geographical range in Wisconsin (WI), Michigan (MI), Indiana (IN), and New York (NY). Using genomic analysis, we found that these samples were divided into three major geographic groups, NY, WI, and MI-IN, with populations in WI and MI-IN each further divided into three subgroups. A high level of inbreeding was revealed by inbreeding coefficients above 10% in almost all populations in our study. However, strong correlation between F ST and geographical distance suggested that genetic divergence between populations increases with distance, such that introducing individuals from more distant populations may be a useful strategy for increasing population-level diversity and preserving the species. We also found that Karner blue populations had lower genetic diversity than closely related species and had more alleles that were present only at low frequencies (<5%) in other species. Some of these alleles may negatively impact individual fitness and may have become prevalent in Karner blue populations due to inbreeding. Finally, analysis of these possibly deleterious alleles in the context of predicted three-dimensional structures of proteins revealed potential molecular mechanisms behind population declines, providing insights for conservation. This rich new range-wide understanding of the species' population genomic structure can contextualize past extirpations and help conserve and even enhance Karner blue genetic diversity.

Influence of microclimate and forest management on bat species faced with global change

Climate refugia, areas where climate is expected to remain relatively stable, can offer a near-term safe haven for species sensitive to warming temperatures and drought. Understanding the influence of temperature, moisture, and disturbance on sensitive species is critical during this time of rapid climate change. Coastal habitats can serve as important refugia. Many of these areas consist of working forestlands, and there is a growing recognition that conservation efforts worldwide must consider the habitat value of working lands, in addition to protected areas, to effectively manage large landscapes that support biodiversity. The sensitivity of forest bats to climate and habitat disturbance makes them a useful indicator taxon. We tested how microclimate and forest management influence habitat use for 13 species of insectivorous bats in a large climate refugium in a global biodiversity hotspot. We examined whether bat activity during the summer dry season is greater in forests where coastal fog provides moisture and more stable temperatures across both protected mature stands and those regularly logged. Acoustic monitoring was conducted at a landscape scale with 20 study sites, and generalized linear mixed models were used to examine the influence of habitat variables. Six species were positively associated with warmer nighttime temperature, and 5 species had a negative relationship with humidity or a positive relationship with climatic moisture deficit. Our results suggest that these mammals may have greater climate adaptive capacity than expected, and, for now, that habitat use may be more related to optimal foraging conditions than to avoidance of warming temperatures and drought. We also determined that 12 of the 13 regionally present bat species were regularly detected in commercial timberland stands. Because forest bats are highly mobile, forage over long distances, and frequently change roosts, the stewardship of working forests must be addressed to protect these species.

Evaluating ecosystem protection and fragmentation of the world's major mountain regions

Conserving mountains is important for protecting biodiversity because they have high beta diversity and endemicity, facilitate species movement, and provide numerous ecosystem benefits for people. Mountains are often thought to have lower levels of human modification and contain more protected area than surrounding lowlands. To examine this, we compared biogeographic attributes of the largest, contiguous, mountainous region on each continent. In each region, we generated detailed ecosystems based on Köppen-Geiger climate regions, ecoregions, and detailed landforms. We quantified anthropogenic fragmentation of these ecosystems based on human modification classes of large wild areas, shared lands, and cities and farms. Human modification for half the mountainous regions approached the global average, and fragmentation reduced the ecological integrity of mountain ecosystems up to 40%. Only one-third of the major mountainous regions currently meet the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target of 30% coverage for all protected areas; furthermore, the vast majority of ecosystem types present in mountains were underrepresented in protected areas. By measuring ecological integrity and human-caused fragmentation with a detailed representation of mountain ecosystems, our approach facilitates tracking progress toward achieving conservation goals and better informs mountain conservation.

Oxidative physiology of two small and highly migratory Arctic seabirds: Arctic terns (Sterna paradisaea) and long-tailed jaegers (Stercorarius longicaudus)

Arctic ecosystems are changing rapidly. The tundra supports nesting migratory seabirds that spend most of their year over the ocean. Migrations are demanding, but it is unclear how physiological capability may equip organisms to respond to their changing environments. For two migratory seabird species nesting in Alaska, USA, the Arctic tern (n = 10) and the long-tailed jaeger (n = 8), we compared oxidative physiology and aerobic capacity measured during incubation and we recorded individual movement paths using electronic tracking tags. Within species, we hypothesized that individuals with longer-distance migrations would show higher oxidative stress and display better aerobic capacity than shorter-distance migrants. We examined blood parameters relative to subsequent fall migration in jaegers and relative to previous spring migration in terns. We present the first measurements of oxidative stress in these species and the first migratory movements of long-tailed jaegers in the Pacific Ocean. Arctic terns displayed positive correlation of oxidative variables, or better integration than jaegers. Relative to physiological sampling, pre-breeding northward migration data were available for terns and post-breeding southward data were available for jaegers. Terns reached a farther maximum distance from the colony than jaegers (16 199 ± 275 km versus 10 947 ± 950 km) and rate of travel northward (447 ± 41.8 km/day) was positively correlated with hematocrit, but we found no other relationships. In jaegers, there were no relationships between individuals' physiology and southward rate of travel (193 ± 52.3 km/day) or migratory distance. While it is not clear whether the much longer migrations of the terns is related to their better integration, or to another factor, our results spark hypotheses that could be evaluated through a controlled phylogenetic study. Species with better integration may be less susceptible to environmental factors that increase oxidative stress, including thermal challenges or changes in prey distribution as the Arctic climate changes rapidly.

Understanding Local Adaptation to Prepare Populations for Climate Change

Adaptation within species to local environments is widespread in nature. Better understanding this local adaptation is critical to conserving biodiversity. However, conservation practices can rely on species’ trait averages or can broadly assume homogeneity across the range to inform management. Recent methodological advances for studying local adaptation provide the opportunity to fine-tune efforts for managing and conserving species. The implementation of these advances will allow us to better identify populations at greatest risk of decline because of climate change, as well as highlighting possible strategies for improving the likelihood of population persistence amid climate change. In the present article, we review recent advances in the study of local adaptation and highlight ways these tools can be applied in conservation efforts. Cutting-edge tools are available to help better identify and characterize local adaptation. Indeed, increased incorporation of local adaptation in management decisions may help meet the imminent demands of managing species amid a rapidly changing world.