Age at death and the effect of lead-time bias in patients with colorectal cancer: a 10-year follow-up

The diagnostic accuracy of the faecal immunohistochemical test in identifying significant bowel disease in a symptomatic population

AIM

Provisional research on the faecal immunohistochemical test (FIT) for symptomatic colorectal patients has shown a high negative predictive value but has lacked long-term patient follow-up, raising the possibility of missed diagnoses of colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of this work is to describe the long-term diagnostic accuracy of the FIT for CRC and significant bowel disease (SBD) in a symptomatic population in NHS Lanarkshire.

METHOD

From October 2016 to February 2019, all primary care referrals of symptomatic colorectal patients in NHS Lanarkshire were asked to provide a FIT. The baseline demographics, investigations and diagnoses for each patient were prospectively completed until February 2021. A FIT result of ≥10 μg haemoglobin (Hb)/g faeces was considered to be positive.

RESULTS

A total of 5250 patients were identified (median age 62 years; 46% male; median follow-up 31 months) with 65.1% (3418) being FIT negative. The SBD rate was 6.2% and the CRC rate was 2.9% (151). The SBD rate was significantly higher in the FIT-positive group (13.8% vs. 2.2%; p < 0.001) and 32.9% of patients with FIT ≥ 400 μg Hb/g had SBD. The sensitivity of FIT ≥ 10 μg Hb/g for CRC was 87.4% and for SBD it was 76.9%. Specificity was 66.6% and 66.7%, and the negative-predictive value was 99.4% and 97.7%, respectively. Sensitivity for CRC could theoretically be increased to 94.8% if FIT-negative patients were to undergo flexible sigmoidoscopy.

CONCLUSION

A FIT-only referral pathway for symptomatic colorectal patients will miss over 12% of cancers and over 23% of SBD. Theoretically, combining FIT-negative patients with flexible sigmoidoscopy increases the sensitivity for CRC. The FIT offers a mechanism for prioritizing patient access to investigations, particularly in resource-limited areas; however, further work to identify FIT-negative patients diagnosed with CRC is required.

Prognosis of young patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS)

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is rare in young patients (age <40 years at diagnosis), with a prevalence of <0.3%, representing ~2% of all patients with MGUS. We hypothesized that MGUS detected in young patients may be associated with a higher risk of progression. We examined 249 patients with MGUS < 40 years old. Among these, 135 patients had immune-related conditions, including infections, autoimmune and inflammatory disorders at the time of diagnosis of MGUS. The risk of progression to multiple myeloma or a related disorder at 5 years and 10 years was 6.0% and 13.8%, respectively. The size of M protein was a significant risk factor for progression (HR 4.2, 95% CI 2.2–7.9). There was a trend that the risk of progression was higher in patients without immune-related conditions (HR 2.36, 95% CI 0.85–6.52, p = 0.088). The M protein resolved in 36 (14%) patients, with a greater likelihood of resolution in patients with immune-related conditions (RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.02–3.6). Young patients with MGUS have a similar risk of progression as older patients, 1.4% per year. Over 50% are diagnosed in the setting of immune-related disorders. Patients with immune-related disorders may have a lower risk of progression.