Population models reveal unexpected patterns of local persistence despite widespread larval dispersal in a highly exploited species

Integrating larval connectivity into the marine conservation decision-making process across spatial scales

Larval dispersal connectivity is typically integrated into spatial conservation decisions at regional or national scales, but implementing agencies struggle with translating these methods to local scales. We used larval dispersal connectivity at regional (hundreds of kilometers) and local (tens of kilometers) scales to aid in design of networks of no-take reserves in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. We used Marxan with Connectivity informed by biophysical larval dispersal models and remotely sensed coral reef habitat data to design marine reserve networks for 4 commercially important reef species across the region. We complemented regional spatial prioritization with decision trees that combined network-based connectivity metrics and habitat quality to design reserve boundaries locally. Decision trees were used in consensus-based workshops with stakeholders to qualitatively assess site desirability, and Marxan was used to identify areas for subsequent network expansion. Priority areas for protection and expected benefits differed among species, with little overlap in reserve network solutions. Because reef quality varied considerably across reefs, we suggest reef degradation must inform the interpretation of larval dispersal patterns and the conservation benefits achievable from protecting reefs. Our methods can be readily applied by conservation practitioners, in this region and elsewhere, to integrate connectivity data across multiple spatial scales.

Next-generation matrices for marine metapopulations: The case of sea lice on salmon farms

Classifying habitat patches as sources or sinks and determining metapopulation persistence requires coupling connectivity between habitat patches with local demographic rates. While methods to calculate sources, sinks, and metapopulation persistence exist for discrete-time models, there is no method that is consistent across modeling frameworks. In this paper, we show how next-generation matrices, originally popularized in epidemiology to calculate new infections after one generation, can be used in an ecological context to calculate sources and sinks as well as metapopulation persistence in marine metapopulations. To demonstrate the utility of the method, we construct a next-generation matrix for a network of sea lice populations on salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, BC, an intensive salmon farming region on the west coast of Canada where certain salmon farms are currently being removed under an agreement between local First Nations and the provincial government. The column sums of the next-generation matrix can determine if a habitat patch is a source or a sink and the spectral radius of the next-generation matrix can determine the persistence of the metapopulation. With respect to salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, we identify the salmon farms which are acting as the largest sources of sea lice and show that in this region the most productive sea lice populations are also the most connected. The farms which are the largest sources of sea lice have not yet been removed from the Broughton Archipelago, and warming temperatures could lead to increased sea louse growth. Calculating sources, sinks, and persistence in marine metapopulations using the next-generation matrix is biologically intuitive, mathematically equivalent to previous methods, and consistent across different modeling frameworks.

Reconstruction of larval origins based on genetic relatedness and biophysical modeling

The assessment of the mechanisms and patterns of larval connectivity between geographically separated populations leads to a better understanding of benthic marine population dynamics, especially in commercially valuable species. This study investigated for the first time the fine-scale temporal genetic variability of new settlers and their origins in a benthic marine organism with one of the longest pelagic larval phases, the Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus). We genotyped newly settled postlarvae in the Florida Keys and adults of spiny lobster from the Florida Keys and throughout the Caribbean Sea. We identified strong larval connectivity between Dominican Republic, Belize, Nicaragua, the Florida Keys, and West-Florida. The larval dispersal modeling suggests that Florida’s lobster population could receive recruits from within and from other areas outside its state and national maritime boundaries. The genetic analyses refine the oceanographic model indicating that the connectivity patterns described could also result from unknown parental populations sourcing adults and postlarvae in different spawning seasons to the Florida Keys. We discuss the importance of small temporal scales to identify patterns in larval export. Our findings are significant on two levels. From the larval dispersal perspective, genetic results and biophysical modeling identify patterns of gene flow enhancing persistence of local populations. From an economic and fishery perspective, P. argus is the most important commercial species in the Caribbean and our results inform how considering larval source and sink dynamics across international boundaries could improve management plans at local, national, and regional levels.