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Ramos Aguila LC, Li X, Akutse KS, Bamisile BS, Sánchez Moreano JP, Lie Z, Liu J. Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change. Life (Basel) 2023; 13:2290. [PMID: 38137891 PMCID: PMC10744521 DOI: 10.3390/life13122290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2023] [Revised: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/23/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis Carlos Ramos Aguila
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China; (X.L.); (Z.L.); (J.L.)
| | - Xu Li
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China; (X.L.); (Z.L.); (J.L.)
| | - Komivi Senyo Akutse
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), Nairobi P.O. Box 30772-00100, Kenya;
- Unit of Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Private Bag X6001, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
| | | | - Jessica Paola Sánchez Moreano
- Grupo Traslacional en Plantas, Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam, Parroquia Muyuna km 7 vía Alto Tena, Tena 150150, Napo, Ecuador;
| | - Zhiyang Lie
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China; (X.L.); (Z.L.); (J.L.)
| | - Juxiu Liu
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China; (X.L.); (Z.L.); (J.L.)
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Li Y, Wilson D, Grundel R, Campbell S, Knight J, Perry J, Hellmann JJ. Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis). PLoS One 2023; 18:e0262382. [PMID: 37934780 PMCID: PMC10629659 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023] Open
Abstract
The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter "endo-exogenous") models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yudi Li
- Energy Graduate Group, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - David Wilson
- Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, MN, United States of America
| | - Ralph Grundel
- US Geological Survey, Lake Michigan Ecological Research Station, Chesterton, IN, United States of America
| | - Steven Campbell
- Albany Pine Bush Preserve Commission, Albany Pine Bush, NY, United States of America
| | - Joseph Knight
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States of America
| | - Jim Perry
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States of America
| | - Jessica J. Hellmann
- Conservation Sciences Graduate Program, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States of America
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3
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Musgrove J, Gilbert F. Negative density-dependence buffers against mismatch-induced population decline in the Sinai baton blue butterfly. Oecologia 2023; 203:1-11. [PMID: 37733112 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-023-05449-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023]
Abstract
Phenological mismatches caused by climate change pose a major threat to global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have reported population declines resulting from mismatch. It has been hypothesised that density effects may underlie this lack of observed responses by buffering against mismatch-induced population decline. We developed an individual-based model of the critically endangered Sinai baton blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus) and its hostplant Sinai thyme (Thymus decussatus), parameterised using real field data, to test this hypothesis. Our model showed that the baton blue experiences demographic consequences under only 5 days of phenological mismatch, but that this threshold was increased to 14 days with the inclusion of density-dependent juvenile mortality. The inclusion of density effects also led to the replication of population cycles observed in nature, supporting the ability of our model to accurately represent the baton blue's ecology. These results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that density effects may underlie the observed lack of demographic responses to mismatch in wild populations. However, these buffers may be short-lived in extreme mismatch scenarios, providing a false sense of security against a looming threat of population collapse.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie Musgrove
- Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Avenue Docteur Penfield, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada.
| | - Francis Gilbert
- School of Life Sciences, University Park, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, England
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Guralnick RP, Campbell LP, Belitz MW. Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology. Commun Biol 2023; 6:490. [PMID: 37147472 PMCID: PMC10163234 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-023-04873-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Studies of long-term trends in phenology often rely on climatic averages or accumulated heat, overlooking climate variability. Here we test the hypothesis that unusual weather conditions are critical in driving adult insect phenology. First, we generate phenological estimates for Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) across the Eastern USA, and over a 70 year period, using natural history collections data. Next, we assemble a set of predictors, including the number of unusually warm and cold days prior to, and during, the adult flight period. We then use phylogenetically informed linear mixed effects models to evaluate effects of unusual weather events, climate context, species traits, and their interactions on flight onset, offset and duration. We find increasing numbers of both warm and cold days were strong effects, dramatically increasing flight duration. This strong effect on duration is likely driven by differential onset and termination dynamics. For flight onset, impact of unusual climate conditions is dependent on climatic context, but for flight cessation, more unusually cold days always lead to later termination particularly for multivoltine species. These results show that understanding phenological responses under global change must account for unusual weather events, especially given they are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.
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Affiliation(s)
- R P Guralnick
- Department of Natural History, Florida Museum of Natural History, Dickinson Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
| | - L P Campbell
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology & Nematology, IFAS, University of Florida, 200 9th Street SE, Vero Beach, FL, 32962, USA
| | - M W Belitz
- Department of Natural History, Florida Museum of Natural History, Dickinson Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
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Stemkovski M, Bell JR, Ellwood ER, Inouye BD, Kobori H, Lee SD, Lloyd-Evans T, Primack RB, Templ B, Pearse WD. Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability. Ecology 2023; 104:e3846. [PMID: 36199230 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Revised: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Stemkovski
- Department of Biology & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.,Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Elizabeth R Ellwood
- Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, California, USA.,iDigBio, Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Brian D Inouye
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA.,Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
| | | | - Sang Don Lee
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Richard B Primack
- Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - William D Pearse
- Department of Biology & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Berkshire, UK
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Thurman LL, Gross JE, Mengelt C, Beever EA, Thompson LM, Schuurman GW, Hoving CL, Olden JD. Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13838. [PMID: 34622995 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2021] [Revised: 08/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Adaptive capacity (AC)-the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change-is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species' AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species' attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species' AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species' innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species' AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lindsey L Thurman
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
| | - John E Gross
- National Park Service, Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Claudia Mengelt
- U.S. Geological Survey, Land Management Research Program, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Erik A Beever
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, Montana, USA
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | - Laura M Thompson
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, USA
- Department of Forestry, Wildlife and Fisheries, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Gregor W Schuurman
- National Park Service, Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Julian D Olden
- School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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