Are eastern and western monarch butterflies distinct populations? A review of evidence for ecological, phenotypic, and genetic differentiation and implications for conservation

Breeding season temporal and spatial trends in continental-scale migration of the monarch butterfly

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) is a vagile species that undertakes an annual, multi-generational migration across North America. The abundance of this species at both eastern and western overwintering sites in Central Mexico and California indicates a population decline. Success of continental-scale conservation programs for a migratory species depends on providing, maintaining, and protecting habitats at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Here, dynamics of monarch continental-scale migration and gene flow were obtained by combined stable isotope, morphological, and genetic analyses. These analyses were applied to temporal monarch samples collected from May to September during 2016-2021 at locations in Iowa, USA and spatial collections from Pennsylvania, Delaware, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, 3 Australian locations during July and August 2016, and Texas in April 2021. Evidence of seasonal multi-generational migration was obtained through δ2H analyses of spatial collections, which was corroborated by decreased wing hue (a morphological marker for non-migratory individuals). In Iowa, 10-15% of monarchs represented migrants from southern areas throughout the breeding season and 6% were migrants from the North in midsummer. Limited sequence variation detected across the mitochondrial genome impacted the capability to detect significant population genetic variation in our North American samples. However, 2 novel substitutions were identified and predicted to be fixed among Australia samples, contributing to intercontinental differentiation from counterparts in North America. Our assessment of temporal and spatial population dynamics across the North American monarch breeding range provides insight into continental-scale migration and previously undetected mitochondrial DNA variation among globally distributed populations.

Monarch Butterflies in Western North America: A Holistic Review of Population Trends, Ecology, Stressors, Resilience and Adaptation

Monarch butterfly populations in western North America suffered a substantial decline, from millions of butterflies overwintering in California in the 1980s to less than 400,000 at the beginning of the 21st century. The introduction of neonicotinoid insecticides in the mid-1990s and their subsequent widespread use appears to be the most likely major factor behind this sudden decline. Habitat loss and unfavorable climates (high temperatures, aridity, and winter storms) have also played important and ongoing roles. These factors kept overwintering populations stable but below 300,000 during 2001-2017. Late winter storm mortality and consequent poor spring reproduction drove winter populations to less than 30,000 butterflies during 2018-2019. Record high temperatures in California during the fall of 2020 appeared to prematurely terminate monarch migration, resulting in the lowest overwintering population (1899) ever recorded. Many migrants formed winter-breeding populations in urban areas. Normal seasonal temperatures in the autumns of 2021 and 2022 enabled overwintering populations to return to around the 300,000 level, characteristic of the previous two decades. Natural enemies (predators, parasitoids, parasites, and pathogens) may be important regional or local drivers at times but they are a consistent and fundamental part of monarch ecology. Human interference (capture, rearing) likely has the least impact on monarch populations. The rearing of monarch caterpillars, particularly by children, is an important human link to nature that has positive ramifications for insect conservation beyond monarch butterflies and should be encouraged.

Using community science to map western monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in spring

Migratory animals follow seasonal cycles comprising linked phases often with different habitat requirements and demographic processes. Conservation of migratory species therefore must consider the full seasonal cycle to identify points limiting population viability. For western monarch butterflies, which have experienced significant declines, early spring is considered a critical period in the annual population cycle. However, records of western monarchs in early spring, when overall abundance is lowest, have historically been extremely limited. We used a community science initiative, the Western Monarch Mystery Challenge, to collect data on monarch distribution throughout the western United States between February 14th and April 22nd over 3 years. Using data from the Western Monarch Mystery Challenge and iNaturalist, we identified potential breeding habitat for western monarchs in early spring that spanned a large geographic area and several ecoregions. We observed monarchs in early spring that likely eclosed in the current year, suggesting that population expansion from overwintering sites reflects both movement and population growth. The number of records of western monarchs from early spring was higher during the Mystery Challenge (33.0/year) than earlier years (5.1/year). This study demonstrates the potential for and limitations of community science to increase our understanding of species at points in the life cycle when they are rare.

Migration genetics take flight: genetic and genomic insights into monarch butterfly migration

Monarch butterflies have emerged as a model system in migration genetics. Despite inherent challenges associated with studying the integrative phenotypes that characterize migration, recent research has highlighted genes and transcriptional networks underlying aspects of the monarch's migratory syndrome. Circadian clock genes and the vitamin A synthesis pathway regulate reproductive diapause initiation, while diapause termination appears to involve calcium and insulin signaling. Comparative approaches have highlighted genes that distinguish migratory and nonmigratory monarch populations, as well as genes associated with natural variation in propensity to initiate diapause. Population genetic techniques demonstrate that seasonal migration can collapse patterns of spatial structure at continental scales, whereas loss of migration can drive differentiation between even nearby populations. Finally, population genetics can be applied to reconstruct the monarch's evolutionary history and search for contemporary demographic changes, which can provide relevant context for understanding recently observed declines in overwintering North American monarch numbers.

Complexity, humility, and action: a current perspective on monarchs in Western North America

Recent studies have continued to shed light on the ecology of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in western North America. These studies have documented a declining overwintering population over several decades, punctuated by unexpected variability in recent years. Understanding this variability will require grappling with the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of resources and risks presented to western monarchs throughout their annual life cycle. Recent changes in the western monarch population further illustrate how interacting global change drivers can create complex causes and consequences in this system. The complexity of this system should inspire humility. However, even recognizing the limits of our current understanding, there is enough scientific common ground to take some conservation actions now.

Overwintering and breeding patterns of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in coastal plain habitats of the southeastern USA

Understanding variability in species' traits can inform our understanding of their ecology and aid in the development of management and conservation strategies. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) are native to the western hemisphere and are well-known for their long-distance migrations but have experienced significant population declines in recent decades. Here we use a 5-year capture-mark-recapture dataset to compare monarch distributions, mating activity, and larval host plant use between two coastal plain habitats in South Carolina, USA. We observed seasonally specific habitat use, with maritime habitats serving as overwintering areas while nearby inland swamps support significant breeding in spring, summer, and fall seasons due to an abundance of aquatic milkweed (Asclepias perennis). We also observed mating activity by fall migrating monarchs and their use of swallow-wort (Pattalias palustre) in the spring as an important larval host plant in maritime habitats. This phenology and habitat use of monarchs diverges from established paradigms and suggest that a distinct population segment of monarchs may exist, with significance for understanding the conservation status of monarch butterflies and associated habitats in eastern North America. Further research should explore how monarchs along the Atlantic coast of North America relate to other eastern monarch populations.

Population genetics of a recent range expansion and subsequent loss of migration in monarch butterflies

Range expansions-whether permanent or transient-strongly influence the distribution of genetic variation in space. Monarch butterflies are best known for long-distance seasonal migration within North America but are also established as nonmigratory populations around the world, including on Pacific Islands. Previous research has highlighted stepwise expansion across the Pacific, though questions remain about expansion timing and the population genetic consequences of migration loss. Here, we present reduced-representation sequencing data for 275 monarchs from North America (n = 85), 12 Pacific Islands (n = 136) and three locations in Australia (n = 54), with the goal of understanding (i) how the monarch's Pacific expansion has shaped patterns of population genetic variation and (ii) how loss of migration has influenced spatial patterns of differentiation. We find support for previously described stepwise dispersal across the Pacific and document an additional expansion from Hawaii into the Mariana Islands. Nonmigratory monarchs within the Mariana Islands show strong patterns of differentiation, despite their proximity; by contrast, migratory North American samples form a single genetically panmictic population across the continent. Estimates of Pacific establishment timing are highly uncertain (~100-1,000,000 years ago) but overlap with historical records that indicate a recent expansion. Our data support (i) a recent expansion across the Pacific whose timing overlaps with available historical records of establishment and (ii) a strong role for seasonal migration in determining patterns of spatial genetic variation. Our results are noteworthy because they demonstrate how the evolution of partial migration can drive population differentiation over contemporary timescales.

Opposing global change drivers counterbalance trends in breeding North American monarch butterflies

Many insects are in clear decline, with monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) drawing particular attention as a flagship species. It is well documented that, among migratory populations, numbers of overwintering monarchs have been falling across several decades, but trends among breeding monarchs are less clear. Here, we compile >135,000 monarch observations between 1993 and 2018 from the North American Butterfly Association's annual butterfly count to examine spatiotemporal patterns and potential drivers of adult monarch relative abundance trends across the entire breeding range in eastern and western North America. While the data revealed declines at some sites, particularly the US Northeast and parts of the Midwest, numbers in other areas, notably the US Southeast and Northwest, were unchanged or increasing, yielding a slightly positive overall trend across the species range. Negative impacts of agricultural glyphosate use appeared to be counterbalanced by positive effects of annual temperature, particularly in the US Midwest. Overall, our results suggest that population growth in summer is compensating for losses during the winter and that changing environmental variables have offsetting effects on mortality and/or reproduction. We suggest that density-dependent reproductive compensation when lower numbers arrive each spring is currently able to maintain relatively stable breeding monarch numbers. However, we caution against complacency since accelerating climate change may bring growing threats. In addition, increases of summer monarchs in some regions, especially in California and in the south, may reflect replacement of migratory with resident populations. Nonetheless, it is perhaps reassuring that ubiquitous downward trends in summer monarch abundance are not evident.