Model for early allograft function is predictive of early graft loss in donation after circulatory death liver transplantation

Validation and performance of three scoring systems for predicting primary non-function and early allograft failure after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Primary non-function (PNF) and early allograft failure (EAF) after liver transplantation (LT) seriously affect patient outcomes. In clinical practice, effective prognostic tools for early identifying recipients at high risk of PNF and EAF were urgently needed. Recently, the Model for Early Allograft Function (MEAF), PNF score by King's College (King-PNF) and Balance-and-Risk-Lactate (BAR-Lac) score were developed to assess the risks of PNF and EAF. This study aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of these three scores for predicting PNF and EAF.

METHODS

A retrospective study included 720 patients with primary LT between January 2015 and December 2020. MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses.

RESULTS

Of all 720 patients, 28 (3.9%) developed PNF and 67 (9.3%) developed EAF in 3 months. The overall early allograft dysfunction (EAD) rate was 39.0%. The 3-month patient mortality was 8.6% while 1-year graft-failure-free survival was 89.2%. The median MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were 5.0 (3.5-6.3), -2.1 (-2.6 to -1.2), and 5.0 (2.0-11.0), respectively. For predicting PNF, MEAF and King-PNF scores had excellent area under curves (AUCs) of 0.872 and 0.891, superior to BAR-Lac (AUC = 0.830). The NRI and IDI analyses confirmed that King-PNF score had the best performance in predicting PNF while MEAF served as a better predictor of EAD. The EAF risk curve and 1-year graft-failure-free survival curve showed that King-PNF was superior to MEAF and BAR-Lac scores for stratifying the risk of EAF.

CONCLUSIONS

MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac were validated as practical and effective risk assessment tools of PNF. King-PNF score outperformed MEAF and BAR-Lac in predicting PNF and EAF within 6 months. BAR-Lac score had a huge advantage in the prediction for PNF without post-transplant variables. Proper use of these scores will help early identify PNF, standardize grading of EAF and reasonably select clinical endpoints in relative studies.

Predicting Early Allograft Function After Normothermic Machine Perfusion

BACKGROUND

Normothermic ex situ liver perfusion is increasingly used to assess donor livers, but there remains a paucity of evidence regarding criteria upon which to base a viability assessment or criteria predicting early allograft function.

METHODS

Perfusate variables from livers undergoing normothermic ex situ liver perfusion were analyzed to see which best predicted the Model for Early Allograft Function score.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-four of 203 perfused livers were transplanted following our previously defined criteria. These comprised 84/123 donation after circulatory death livers and 70/80 donation after brain death livers. Multivariable analysis suggested that 2-h alanine transaminase, 2-h lactate, 11 to 29 mmol supplementary bicarbonate in the first 4 h, and peak bile pH were associated with early allograft function as defined by the Model for Early Allograft Function score. Nonanastomotic biliary strictures occurred in 11% of transplants, predominantly affected first- and second-order ducts, despite selection based on bile glucose and pH.

CONCLUSIONS

This work confirms the importance of perfusate alanine transaminase and lactate at 2-h, as well as the amount of supplementary bicarbonate required to keep the perfusate pH > 7.2, in the assessment of livers undergoing perfusion. It cautions against the use of lactate as a sole indicator of viability and also suggests a role for cholangiocyte function markers in predicting early allograft function.

Biomarkers and predictive models of early allograft dysfunction in liver transplantation - A systematic review of the literature, meta-analysis, and expert panel recommendations

BACKGROUND

Prompt identification of early allograft dysfunction (EAD) is critical to reduce morbidity and mortality in liver transplant (LT) recipients.

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate the evidence supporting biomarkers that can provide diagnostic and predictive value for EAD.

DATA SOURCES

Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Central.

METHODS

Systematic review following PRISMA guidelines and recommendations using the GRADE approach was derived from an international expert panel. Studies that investigated biomarkers or models for predicting EAD in adult LT recipients were included for in-depth evaluation and meta-analysis. Olthoff's criteria were used as the standard reference for the diagnostic accuracy evaluation.

PROSPERO ID

CRD42021293838 RESULTS: Ten studies were included for the systematic review. Lactate, lactate clearance, uric acid, Factor V, HMGB-1, CRP to ALB ratio, phosphocholine, total cholesterol, and metabolomic predictive model were identified as potential early EAD predictive biomarkers. The sensitivity ranged between .39 and .92, while the specificity ranged from .63 to .90. Elevated lactate level was most indicative of EAD after adult LT (pooled diagnostic odds ratio of 7.15 (95%CI: 2.38-21.46)). The quality of evidence (QOE) for lactate as indicator was moderate according to the GRADE approach, whereas the QOE for other biomarkers was very low to low likely as consequence of study design characteristics such as single study, small sample size, and large ranges of sensitivity or specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

Lactate is an early indicator to predict EAD after LT (Quality of Evidence: Moderate | Grade of Recommendation: Strong). Further multicenter studies and the use of machine perfusion setting should be implemented for validation.

Classification of Distinct Patterns of Ischemic Cholangiopathy Following DCD Liver Transplantation: Distinct Clinical Courses and Long-term Outcomes From a Multicenter Cohort

BACKGROUND

As the number of donation after circulatory death (DCD) liver transplants (LTs) performed in the United States continues to increase annually, there has been interest by policy makers to develop a more robust exception point safety net for patients who develop ischemic cholangiopathy (IC) following DCD LT. As such, there is a need for better understanding of the clinical course and long-term outcomes in patients who develop IC, as well as determining if IC can be classified into distinct categories with distinctly different clinical outcomes.

METHODS

All DCD LT performed at Mayo Clinic Florida, Mayo Clinic Arizona, and Mayo Clinic Rochester from January 1999 to March 2020 were included (N = 770). Outcomes were compared between 4 distinct radiologic patterns of IC: diffuse necrosis, multifocal progressive, confluence dominant, and minor form.

RESULTS

In total, 88 (11.4%) patients developed IC, of which 42 (5.5%) were listed for retransplantation of liver (ReLT). Patients with diffuse necrosis and multifocal progressive patterns suffered from frequent hospital admissions for cholangitis in the first year following DCD LT (median 3 and 2), were largely stent dependent (100% and 85.7%), and almost universally required ReLT. Patients with confluence dominant disease were managed with multiple stents and frequently recovered, ultimately becoming stent free without need for ReLT. Patients with the minor form IC did well with limited need for stent placement or repeat procedures and did not require ReLT. Graft survival was different between the 4 distinct IC patterns (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The present analysis provides a detailed analysis on the natural history and clinical course of IC. Patients developing IC can be classified into 4 distinct patterns with distinct clinical courses.

Liver Transplantation Outcomes From Controlled Circulatory Death Donors: Static cold storage vs in situ normothermic regional perfusion vs ex situ normothermic machine perfusion

OBJECTIVE

To compare the outcomes of livers donated after circulatory death (DCD) and undergoing either in situ normothermic regional perfusion (NRP) or ex situ normothermic machine perfusion (NMP) with livers undergoing static cold storage (SCS).

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

DCD livers are associated with increased risk of primary nonfunction, poor function, and nonanastomotic strictures (NAS), leading to underutilization.

METHODS

A single center, retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on 233 DCD liver transplants performed using SCS, NRP, or NMP between January 2013 and October 2020.

RESULTS

Ninety-seven SCS, 69 NRP, and 67 NMP DCD liver transplants were performed, with 6-month and 3-year transplant survival (graft survival noncensored for death) rates of 87%, 94%, 90%, and 76%, 90%, and 76%, respectively. NRP livers had a lower 6-month risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard for transplant failure compared to SCS (hazard ratio 0.30, 95%CI 0.08-1.05, P = 0.06). NRP and NMP livers had a risk-adjusted estimated reduction in the mean model for early allograft function score of 1.52 (P < 0.0001) and 1.19 (P < 0.001) respectively compared to SCS. Acute kidney injury was more common with SCS (55% vs 39% NRP vs 40% NMP; P = 0.08), with a lower risk-adjusted peak-to-baseline creatinine ratio in the NRP (P = 0.02). No NRP liver had clinically significant NAS in contrast to SCS (14%) and NMP (11%, P = 0.009), with lower risk-adjusted odds of overall NAS development compared to SCS (odds ratio = 0.2, 95%CI 0.06-0.72, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

NRP and NMP were associated with better early liver function compared to SCS, whereas NRP was associated with superior preservation of the biliary system.

Temporal Trends in Utilization and Outcomes of DCD Livers in the United States

BACKGROUND

Historically, donation after circulatory death (DCD) livers were frequently discarded because of higher mortality and graft loss after liver transplantation (LT). However, the demand for LT continues to outstrip the supply of "acceptable" organs. Additionally, changes in the donor pool, organ allocation, and clinical management of donors and recipients, and improved clinical protocols might have altered post-DCD-LT outcomes.

METHODS

We studied 5975 recovered DCD livers using US Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from 2005 to 2017, with a comparison group of 78 235 adult donation after brain death (DBD) livers recovered during the same time period. We quantified temporal trends in discard using adjusted multilevel logistic regression and temporal trends in post-LT mortality and graft loss for DCD LT recipients using adjusted Cox regression.

RESULTS

DCD livers were more likely to be discarded than DBD livers across the entire study period, and the relative likelihood of discard increased over time (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] of discard DCD versus DBD 3.854.455.14 2005-2007, 5.225.876.59 2015-2017) despite improving outcomes after DCD LT. Mortality risk for DCD LTs decreased in each time period (compared with 2005-2007, aHR 2008-2011 0.720.840.97, aHR 2012-2014 0.480.580.70, aHR 2015-2017 0.340.430.55), as did risk of graft loss (compared with 2005-2007, aHR 2008-2011 0.690.810.94, aHR 2012-2014 0.450.550.67, aHR 2015-2017 0.360.450.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite dramatic improvements in outcomes of DCD LT recipients, DCD livers remain substantially more likely to be discarded than DBD livers, and this discrepancy has actually increased over time. DCD livers are underutilized and have the potential to expand the donor pool.

Prediction of Graft Survival Post-liver Transplantation by L-GrAFT Risk Score Model, EASE Score, MEAF Scoring, and EAD

Background: Early allograft dysfunction (EAD) is correlated with poor patient or graft survival in liver transplantation. However, the power of distinct definitions of EAD in prediction of graft survival is unclear. Methods: This retrospective, single-center study reviewed data of 677 recipients undergoing orthotopic liver transplant between July 2015 and June 2020. The following EAD definitions were compared: liver graft assessment following transplantation (L-GrAFT) risk score model, early allograft failure simplified estimation score (EASE), model for early allograft function (MEAF) scoring, and Olthoff criteria. Risk factors for L-GrAFT₇ high risk group were evaluated with univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: L-GrAFT₇ had a satisfied C-statistic of 0.87 in predicting a 3-month graft survival which significantly outperformed MEAF (C-statistic = 0.78, P = 0.01) and EAD (C-statistic = 0.75, P < 0.001), respectively. L-GrAFT₁₀, EASE was similar to L-GrAFT₇, and they had no statistical significance in predicting survival. Laboratory model for end-stage liver disease score and cold ischemia time are risk factors of L-GrAFT₇ high-risk group. Conclusion: L-GrAFT₇ risk score is capable for better predicting the 3-month graft survival than the MEAF and EAD in a Chinese cohort, which might standardize assessment of early graft function and serve as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trial.

Trials & Tribulations of Liver Transplantation- are trials now prohibitive without surrogate endpoints?

During the past 5 decades, liver transplantation has moved from its pioneering days where success was measured in days to a point where it is viewed as a routine part of medical care. Despite this progress, there are still significant unmet needs and outstanding questions that need addressing in clinical trials to improve outcomes for patients. The traditional endpoint for trials in liver transplantation has been 1-year patient survival, but with rates now approaching 95%, this endpoint now poses a number of significant financial and logistical barriers to conducting trials because of the large numbers of participants required to demonstrate only an incremental improvement. Here, we suggest the following solutions to this challenge: adoption of validated surrogate endpoints; bigger and better collaborative multiarm, multiphase studies; recognition by funders and institutions that work on larger collaborative research projects is potentially more important than smaller, self-led bodies of work; ringfenced areas of research within trial frameworks where individuals can take a lead; and fair funding structures using both industry and public sector money across national and international borders.

Design, Analysis, and Pitfalls of Clinical Trials Using Ex Situ Liver Machine Perfusion: The International Liver Transplantation Society Consensus Guidelines

BACKGROUND

Recent trials in liver machine perfusion (MP) have revealed unique challenges beyond those seen in most clinical studies. Correct trial design and interpretation of data are essential to avoid drawing conclusions that may compromise patient safety and increase costs.

METHODS

The International Liver Transplantation Society, through the Special Interest Group "DCD, Preservation and Machine Perfusion," established a working group to write consensus statements and guidelines on how future clinical trials in liver perfusion should be designed, with particular focus on relevant clinical endpoints and how different techniques of liver perfusion should be compared. Protocols, abstracts, and full published papers of clinical trials using liver MP were reviewed. The use of a simplified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation working group (GRADE) system was attempted to assess the level of evidence. The working group presented its conclusions at the International Liver Transplantation Society consensus conference "DCD, Liver Preservation, and Machine Perfusion" held in Venice, Italy, on January 31, 2020.

RESULTS

Twelve recommendations were proposed with the main conclusions that clinical trials investigating the effect of MP in liver transplantation should (1) make the protocol publicly available before the start of the trial, (2) be adequately powered, and (3) carefully consider timing of randomization in function of the primary outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

There are issues with using accepted primary outcomes of liver transplantation trials in the context of MP trials, and no ideal endpoint could be defined by the working group. The setup of an international registry was considered vital by the working group.

Pilot study of a noninvasive real-time optical backscatter probe in liver transplantation

Transplantation of severely steatotic donor livers is associated with early allograft dysfunction and poorer graft survival. Histology remains the gold standard diagnostic of donor steatosis despite the lack of consensus definition and its subjective nature. In this prospective observational study of liver transplant patients, we demonstrate the feasibility of using a handheld optical backscatter probe to assess the degree of hepatic steatosis and correlate the backscatter readings with clinical outcomes. The probe is placed on the surface of the liver and emits red and near infrared light from the tip of the device and measures the amount of backscatter of light from liver tissue via two photodiodes. Measurement of optical backscatter (Mantel-Cox P < 0.0001) and histopathological scoring of macrovesicular steatosis (Mantel-Cox P = 0.046) were predictive of 5-year graft survival. Recipients with early allograft dysfunction defined according to both Olthoff (P = 0.0067) and MEAF score (P = 0.0097) had significantly higher backscatter levels from the donor organ. Backscatter was predictive of graft loss (AUC 0.75, P = 0.0045). This study demonstrates the feasibility of real-time measurement of optical backscatter in donor livers. Early results indicate readings correlate with steatosis and may give insight to graft outcomes such as early allograft dysfunction and graft loss.