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Yu J, Liu C, Zhang J, Wang X, Song K, Wu P, Liu F. Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Prev Med Rep 2024; 41:102722. [PMID: 38646072 PMCID: PMC11026839 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2024.102722] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2023] [Revised: 04/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 04/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Background To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI). Methods Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangtao Yu
- Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Chunlong Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Jian Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, the Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, Fushun 113001, China
| | - Xiangyu Wang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Bengbu Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Kun Song
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Bengbu Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Panpan Wu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Fubao Liu
- Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China
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Jiang W, Du Y, Xiang C, Li X, Zhou W. Age-period-cohort analysis of pancreatitis epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts for 2044: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1118888. [PMID: 37361161 PMCID: PMC10288197 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1118888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 05/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective Pancreatitis poses a serious medical problem worldwide. This study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of pancreatitis from 1990 to 2019, analyze the association between disease burden and age, period and birth cohort, and subsequently present a forecast of pancreatitis incidence and deaths. Methods Epidemiologic data were gathered from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period and birth cohort. We also predicted the global epidemiological trends to 2044. Results Globally, the incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis increased 1.63-and 1.65-fold from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased over the past three decades. The age effect indicates that older people have higher age-specific incidence and death rates. The period effect on incidence and deaths showed downward trends from 1990 to 2019. The cohort effect demonstrated that incidence and death risk peaked in the earlier birth cohort and were lower in the latest birth cohort. Incident cases and deaths of pancreatitis may significantly increase in the next 25 years. The ASIRs were predicted to slightly increase, while the ASDRs were predicted to decrease. Conclusion Epidemiologic patterns and trends of pancreatitis across age, period and birth cohort may provide novel insight into public health. Limitations of alcohol use and prevention strategies for pancreatitis are necessary to reduce future burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenkai Jiang
- The Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Yan Du
- The Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Caifei Xiang
- The Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Xin Li
- The First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Wence Zhou
- The Second Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Department of General Surgery, Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, China
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Jiang H, Tran A, Petkevičienė J, Štelemėkas M, Lange S, Rehm J. Are restrictions in sales hours of alcohol associated with fewer emergency room visits in Lithuania? An interrupted time-series analysis. Drug Alcohol Rev 2023; 42:487-494. [PMID: 36514305 PMCID: PMC9898194 DOI: 10.1111/dar.13584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2022] [Revised: 11/03/2022] [Accepted: 11/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION On 1 January 2018, an amendment to the alcohol control law was introduced in Lithuania which, among other changes, reduced trading hours for alcoholic beverages by 4 h for weekdays and Saturdays, and by 9 h for Sundays. The objective of the current study was to quantify the potential association of this law with the numbers and types of emergency room (ER) visits in Lithuania, in general and specifically for Sundays, for all ER visits, for injury-related ER visits and specifically for alcohol poisoning as a 100% alcohol-attributable cause. METHODS Sex-stratified time-series analysis-based models for the period 2016-2019 were used to test for associations and for potential alternative explanations (e.g., the increase in minimum legal drinking age, which occurred at the same time). RESULTS Overall, while the reduction in sales hours for both sexes was associated with slight increases in all types and in injury-related ER visits on a weekly basis, the association with ER visits for alcohol poisoning was in the opposite direction for men in all models. Specifically, among men, it was associated with an approximate decrease of 20% of alcohol poisoning-related ER visits on Sundays and an approximate decrease of 12% of alcohol poisoning-related ER visits for all seven weekdays. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS As predicted, restrictions on availability were associated with marked reductions in ER visits for alcohol poisoning in men. However, contrary to expectations, there were no overall reductions in overall ER visits, nor reductions in injury-related ER visits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huan Jiang
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2S1, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Health Sciences Building, 155 College Street, 6th floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5T 3M7, Canada
| | - Alexander Tran
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2S1, Canada
| | - Janina Petkevičienė
- Health Research Institute, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilzes str. 18, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilzes str. 18, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania
| | - Mindaugas Štelemėkas
- Health Research Institute, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilzes str. 18, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilzes str. 18, 47181 Kaunas, Lithuania
| | - Shannon Lange
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2S1, Canada
- Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3M1, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, 250 College Street, 8th floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5T 1R8, Canada
| | - Jürgen Rehm
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2S1, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Health Sciences Building, 155 College Street, 6th floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5T 3M7, Canada
- Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3M1, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, 250 College Street, 8th floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5T 1R8, Canada
- Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Medical Sciences Building, 1 King’s College Circle, Room 2374, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 1A8, Canada
- Program on Substance Abuse, Public Health Agency of Catalonia, 81-95 Roc Boronat St., 08005, Barcelona, Spain
- Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Chemnitzer Str. 46, 01187 Dresden, Germany
- Center for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research (ZIS), Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Martinistraße 52, 20246 Hamburg, Germany
- I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Trubetskaya Street 8, b. 2, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
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Drapkina OM, Kontsevaya AV, Kalinina AM, Avdeev SM, Agaltsov MV, Alexandrova LM, Antsiferova AA, Aronov DM, Akhmedzhanov NM, Balanova YA, Balakhonova TV, Berns SA, Bochkarev MV, Bochkareva EV, Bubnova MV, Budnevsky AV, Gambaryan MG, Gorbunov VM, Gorny BE, Gorshkov AY, Gumanova NG, Dadaeva VA, Drozdova LY, Egorov VA, Eliashevich SO, Ershova AI, Ivanova ES, Imaeva AE, Ipatov PV, Kaprin AD, Karamnova NS, Kobalava ZD, Konradi AO, Kopylova OV, Korostovtseva LS, Kotova MB, Kulikova MS, Lavrenova EA, Lischenko OV, Lopatina MV, Lukina YV, Lukyanov MM, Mayev IV, Mamedov MN, Markelova SV, Martsevich SY, Metelskaya VA, Meshkov AN, Milushkina OY, Mukaneeva DK, Myrzamatova AO, Nebieridze DV, Orlov DO, Poddubskaya EA, Popovich MV, Popovkina OE, Potievskaya VI, Prozorova GG, Rakovskaya YS, Rotar OP, Rybakov IA, Sviryaev YV, Skripnikova IA, Skoblina NA, Smirnova MI, Starinsky VV, Tolpygina SN, Usova EV, Khailova ZV, Shalnova SA, Shepel RN, Shishkova VN, Yavelov IS. 2022 Prevention of chronic non-communicable diseases in Of the Russian Federation. National guidelines. КАРДИОВАСКУЛЯРНАЯ ТЕРАПИЯ И ПРОФИЛАКТИКА 2022. [DOI: 10.15829/1728-8800-2022-3235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
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