Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI).

Methods

Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline.

Conclusion

Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.

Myelodysplastic syndromes mortality in Spain: a comprehensive age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis

OBJECTIVE

The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021.

METHODS

Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35-64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined.

RESULTS

MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980-1987 (stable rates), 1987-1990 (sharp increase), 1990-1999 (slower increase) and 1999-2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35-64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.

Global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 1990-2019: a decomposition and age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Identifying past temporal trends in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-associated liver cancer (NALC) can increase public awareness of the disease and facilitate future policy development.

METHODS

Annual deaths and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for NALC from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The long-term trend and the critical inflection of mortality of NALC were detected by Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort analysis was employed to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Last, decomposition analysis was used to reveal the aging and population growth effects for NALC burden.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the ASDR of NALC witnessed an overall declining trend on a global scale, with a decrease in females and a stable trend in males. However, the global ASDR demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2010 to 2019. Southern sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia have the highest NALC burdens, while high socio-demographic index (SDI) region experienced the fastest escalation of NALC burdens over 30 years. The decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were the primary catalysts behind the increase in global NALC deaths. Age-period-cohort analyses showed that NALC mortality declined the fastest among females aged 40-45 years in high SDI region, accompanied by a deteriorating period effect trend during the period of 2010-2019.

CONCLUSION

The global absolute deaths and ASDR of NALC have witnessed a rise in the past decade, with populations exhibiting considerable disparities based on sex, age, and region. Population growth, aging, and metabolism-related factors were the main factors behind the increase in global NALC deaths.

Bladder cancer mortality trends in Spain: 1980-2021

OBJECTIVE

We propose to update bladder cancer mortality rates in Spain from 1980 to 2021, by sex and age-group, by autonomous community (AC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The public online databases of the National Statistical Institute were used to obtain data on population and bladder cancer mortality. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), all ages and truncated (<75 and ≥75) were estimated and reported as rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression software was used for estimation and trend analysis of ASMRs bladder cancer.

RESULTS

In the last decade, the ASMR for bladder cancer (all ages, <75 years and ≥75 years) decreased significantly in Spain for both sexes. This trend was observed in 12 ACs for men and in 4 ACs (Andalusia, Canary Islands, Catalonia and Madrid) for women, although to different degrees. For men, ASMR remained stable in Castilla-León and La Rioja (<75 years), Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha and Valencia (≥75 years) and the 2 Castilian regions (all ages). For women, ASMR also decreased in Valencia (<75 and ≥75), Castilla-León (≥75), Galicia (≥75 and all ages) and Navarre (<75 and all ages).

CONCLUSION

Our results reveal significant variations in trends by AC, sex and age group, emphasizing the need for continued follow-up and targeted interventions to further reduce bladder cancer mortality rates in Spain.

International patterns and trends in the brain cancer incidence and mortality: An observational study based on the global burden of disease

Background

Brain cancer is a serious issue in the global burden of diseases. This observational research aimed to assess trends of the brain cancer incidence and mortality in the world in the period 1990-2019.

Methods

Brain cancer incidence and mortality data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study database. The joinpoint regression analysis was done to assess the brain cancer indicence and mortality trends: the average annual percent change (AAPC) along with its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated.

Results

In both sexes, the highest age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality were found in high-income regions (Europe and America), while the lowest were observed in the African Region. A significant rise in brain cancer incidence rates both in males and females was observed in all regions, with one exception of a significantly decreased trend only among males in the South-East Asia Region. Among countries with increased trends in incidence and mortality from brain cancer, Cuba experienced the most marked increase in both incidence (AAPC = +5.7% in males and AAPC = +5.4% in females) and mortality rates (AAPC = +5.5% in males and AAPC = +5.1% in females). Among countries that experienced a decline in brain cancer incidence and mortality, Hungary and Greenland showed the most marked decline in both sexes (equally by -1.0%).

Conclusion

Brain cancer shows increasing global incidence rates in both sexes and represents a priority for prevention and further research.

Greece since the 1960s: the mortality transition revisited: a joinpoint regression analysis

Mortality transition in Greece is a well-studied phenomenon in several of its aspects. It is characterised by an almost constant increase in life expectancy at birth and other ages and a parallel decrease in death probabilities. The scope of this paper is a comprehensive assessment of the mortality transition in Greece since 1961, in the light of holistic analysis. Within this paper, life tables by gender were calculated and the temporal trends of life expectancy at several ages were examined. Moreover, a cluster analysis was used in order to verify the temporal changes in the mortality patterns. The probabilities of death in large age classes are presented. Furthermore, the death distribution was analysed in relation to various parameters: the modal age at death, mode, left and right inflexion points and the length of the old age heap. Before that, a non-linear regression method, originating from the stochastic analysis, was applied. Additionally, the Gini coefficient, average inter-individual differences, and interquartile range of survival curves were examined. Finally, the standardised rates of the major causes of death are presented. All the analysis variables were scholastically examined for their temporal trends with the method of Joinpoint Regression analysis. Mortality transition in Greece after the year 1961 is asymmetrical with a gender and an age-specific component, leading to the elevation of life expectancy at birth over time. During this period, the older ages' mortality decreases, but at a slower pace than that of the younger ones. The modal age at death, mode, the left and right inflexion points and the width of the old age heap denote the compression of mortality in the country. The old age death heap shifts towards older ages, while at the same time, the variability of ages at death decreases, being verified by the Gini Coefficient and average inter-individual differences. As a result, the rectangularization of survival curves is evident. These changes have a different pace of transition over time, especially after the emergence of the economic crisis. Finally, the major causes of death were the diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, diseases of the respiratory system and others. The temporal trends of these diseases differ according to the diseases and gender. Greece's mortality transition is an asymmetrical stepwise process characterised by its gender and age-specific characteristics. This process, despite being a continuous one, is not linear. Instead, a combination of serious developments over time governs the country's modern mortality regime. The evaluation of Greece's mortality transition through the lens of more advanced analytical methods may provide new insights and methodological alternatives for assessing mortality transition in other countries of the world.

International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer, as the one of most fatal malignancies, remains a critical issue in the global burden of disease.

AIM

To estimate trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality worldwide in the last three decades.

METHODS

A descriptive epidemiological study was done. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the database of the World Health Organization. Analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality during 2020 was performed. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000) were presented. To estimate trends of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, joinpoint regression analysis was used: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Additionally, analysis was performed by sex and age. In this paper, the trend analysis included only countries with high and medium data quality.

RESULTS

A total of 495773 (262865 male and 232908 female) new cases and 466003 (246840 male and 219163 female) deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported worldwide in 2020. In both sexes, most of the new cases (191348; 38.6% of the total) and deaths (182074; 39.1% of the total) occurred in the Western Pacific Region. In both sexes, the highest ASRs were found in the European Region, while the lowest rates were reported in the South-East Asia Region. The general pattern of rising pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality was seen across countries worldwide in observed period. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer incidence, females in France and India showed the most marked rise in incidence rates (AAPC = +3.9% and AAPC = +3.7%, respectively). Decreasing incidence trends for pancreatic cancer were observed in some countries, but without significance. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer mortality rates, Turkmenistan showed the most marked rise both in males (AAPC = +10.0%, 95%CI: 7.4–12.5) and females (AAPC = +6.4%, 95%CI: 3.5–9.5). The mortality trends of pancreatic cancer were decreasing in both sexes only in Canada and Mexico.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to explain the cause of large international differences in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in last three decades.

Worldwide suicide mortality trends (2000-2019): A joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies exploring suicide mortality on a global scale are sparse, and most evaluations were limited to certain populations.

AIM

To assess global, regional and national trends of suicide mortality.

METHODS

Suicide mortality data for the period 2000-2019 were obtained from the mortality database of the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease Study. Age-standardized rates (ASRs; expressed per 100000) were presented. To assess trends of suicide mortality, joinpoint regression analysis was used: The average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 759028 (523883 male and 235145 female) suicide deaths were reported worldwide in 2019. The global ASR of mortality of suicide was 9.0/100000 population in both sexes (12.6 in males vs 5.4 in females). In both sexes, the highest rates were found in the region of Africa (ASR = 11.2), while the lowest rates were reported in Eastern Mediterranean (ASR = 6.4). Globally, from 2000 to 2019, ASRs of mortality of suicide had a decreasing tendency in both sexes together [AAPC = -2.4% per year; 95%CI: (-2.6)-(-2.3)]. The region of the Americas experienced a significant increase in suicide mortality over 2000-2019 unlike other regions that had a declining trend. Out of all 133 countries with a decline in suicide mortality, Barbados (AAPC = -10.0%), Grenada (AAPC = -8.5%), Serbia (AAPC = -7.6%), and Venezuela (AAPC = -6.2%) showed the most marked reduction in mortality rates. Out of all 26 countries with a rise in suicide mortality, Lesotho (AAPC = +6.0%), Cyprus (AAPC = +5.1%), Paraguay (AAPC = +3.0%), Saudi Arabia (AAPC = +2.8%), Brunei (AAPC = +2.6%), Greece (AAPC = +2.6%), Georgia (AAPC = +2.1%), and Mexico (AAPC = +2.0%), are among those with the highest increase in mortality.

CONCLUSION

Decreasing trends in suicide mortality were observed in most countries across the world. Unfortunately, the mortality of suicide showed an increasing trend in a number of populations. Further research should explore the reasons for these unfavorable trends, in order to consider and recommend more efforts for suicide prevention in these countries.

Anatomy of the atmospheric emissions from the transport sector in Greece: trends and challenges

Emissions of atmospheric pollutants are well-known for their adverse effects on air quality and public health. Additionally, GHG emissions are responsible for the so called "Radiating Forcing" leading to climate change and degradation of ecosystem services. In this work, we analyze the annual emission trends of various air pollutants, including GHGs, from all 4 sectors of transport (roads, aviation, navigation, and railway) in Greece during the 28-year period between 1990 and 2017, in order to examine the confounding dynamics among external forces, such as the major fiscal recession of 2008, and the GHG/pollutant emissions in the country. The analysis is performed with a suite of statistical tools consisting of bivariate correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimation, and Joinpoint regression analysis, in order to thoroughly study the trends of emissions. It is found that all transport sectors (except for the railway) show a significant increase in their emissions, despite the fiscal recession of 2008 that temporarily decelerated all aspects of economic activity in the country. Given the major share of transport in GHG emissions (37%) and air pollution in urban centers, it is essential that the road sector adapts to the new challenges, by means of switching to low-emission technologies and electromobilization. The same applies for the navigation and aviation sectors, which are known pillars of the tourist industry in the country.

Trends in suicide by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation in Serbia, 1991-2020: A joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Hanging is one of the most commonly used methods for suicide in both sexes worldwide. In a number of countries, hanging mortality has increased over the last decades. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies that have explored the patterns and trends for mortality of suicide by hanging on global, regional and national levels, as most evaluations are limited to certain populations.

AIM

To assess the trends of suicide mortality by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation in Serbia, from 1991 to 2020.

METHODS

This nationwide study, with epidemiological descriptive study design, was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000 persons) were calculated by direct standardization, using the World Standard Population. Mortality trends from suicide by hanging were assessed using the joinpoint regression analysis: The average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to address the possible underlying reasons for the observed suicide trends.

RESULTS

Over the 30-year period studied, there were 24340 deaths by hanging (17750 males and 6590 females) in Serbia. In 2020, the ASR of deaths by hanging was 4.5 per 100000 persons in both sexes together (7.6 in males vs 1.7 in females). The trends of suicide mortality by hanging decreased significantly between 1991 and 2020 in both males (AAPC = -1.7% per year; 95%CI: -2.0 to -1.4) and females (AAPC = - 3.5% per year; 95%CI: -3.9 to -3.1). Mortality rates of suicide by hanging had a continuously decreasing tendency in both sexes together in all age groups: The only exception was among males in 40-49 age group, with an increasing trend of suicide by hanging from 1991 to 2011 (by +0.3% per year).

CONCLUSION

The trends in suicide mortality by hanging have been decreasing in Serbia in the last three decades in both sexes, but this was more pronounced in women than in men. Despite the decreasing trends observed in mortality of suicide by hanging, further research is needed for better clarification of trends and help in suicide prevention in the future.

International trends in ovarian cancer incidence from 1973 to 2012

PURPOSE

Ovarian cancer is the 7th leading cancer diagnosis and the 8th leading cause of cancer death in women worldwide. We conducted this study to investigate the incidence of ovarian cancer internationally.

METHODS

The trends in ovarian cancer incidence were analyzed through the latest data of CI5 over the 40-year period from 21 populations in 4 continents using Joinpoint analysis, ASRs and proportions of different histological subtypes in those populations were also analyzed using volume XI of CI5.

RESULTS

ASRs of ovarian cancer were from 7.0 to 11.6 per 100,000 in non-Asia populations during 2008-2012. In Asia, the ASR in Israel (Jews) were the highest, up to 8.1 per 100,000 in the same period. The international trends from 1973 to 2012 showed that ASRs of ovarian cancer were decreasing in 8 of 21 selected populations, whereas ASRs in Slovakia, Spain (Navarra) and China (Shanghai) were increasing. Meanwhile, there are certain differences in the main pathological classification patterns within different regions. In Asia, China (Hong Kong) and Japan both have a higher ASRs and proportions for clear cell and endometrioid carcinomas, while Japan has the highest ASRs and proportions for mucinous carcinomas.

CONCLUSION

Although the reasons for those trends were not entirely clear, environmental, reproductive and genetic factors were likely to have led to these patterns. Meanwhile, more attention and further study should be given to the etiological factors of histology-specific ovarian cancer.

Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Purpose

China has a heavy cancer burden. We aimed to quantitatively estimate the secular trend of cancer mortality and incidence in China.

Methods

We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized rates of 29 cancer groups (from 1990 to 2017) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2017. We estimated rates of major cancer types for annual percent change by Joinpoint regression, and for age, period, and cohort effect by an age–period–cohort model.

Results

In 2017, breast cancer had the highest incidence rate in females. Lung cancer had the highest mortality and incidence rates in males. Although the age-standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer ranked second highest in males, it increased by 112% from 1990 to 2017. Individuals aged over 50 years were at high risk of developing cancer, and the number of deaths at this age accounted for over 89% of all cancers in all age groups. When compared with the global average level, the age-standardized mortality and incidence rates of both liver and esophageal cancers were 2.1 times higher in China, and stomach, lung and nasopharyngeal cancers in China also had high levels (more than 1.5 times higher). During 1990–2017, most of the 29 cancers exhibited an increasing incidence trend, and Joinpoint regression demonstrated increasing mortality of some major cancers. The period effect indicated that the risk of mortality and incidence due to the main cancers generally increased during 1992–2017.

Conclusion

Trend analysis provided information on the effects of prevention strategies and targeted interventions on the occurrence of different cancers. Etiological studies need to be conducted on some major cancers in the Chinese population.

Trajectories of College Alcohol Involvement and Their Associations with Later Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms

Little is known about what differentiates individuals whose drinking patterns escalate into problematic use following the transition out of college compared to those who learn to drink in a way that is consistent with independent adult roles. Patterns of alcohol use and problems during college may pre-sage progression toward problem drinking in adulthood. The present study sought to examine such patterns in an effort to delineate those at greatest risk. Research has not yet elucidated whether, when, and how these groups diverge. Our results indicate that students who report AUD symptoms one year following graduation reported greater alcohol involvement from the first semester and escalated their involvement with alcohol at a more rapid pace. We observed marked and measurable differences in drinking patterns between those who go on to exhibit AUD symptoms following college and those who do not. A close inspection of these differences reveals that relatively small absolute differences in alcohol consumption add up to large differences in alcohol-related consequences. Thus, markers of longer-term risk are present early in college, and greater escalation of drinking across college is an indicator that intervention is needed. Brief Motivational Interventions could help students to anticipate some of the challenges ahead as they transition from the college environment, as well as the potential deleterious effects of immoderate alcohol use on making a successful transition into adult roles. In addition to the beginning of college, our findings also point to critical periods during which screening and brief intervention may be optimally timed.

Trends in Hospital Morbidity From Alzheimer's Disease in the European Union, 2000 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) has become a concerning public health issue. We aimed to analyze the trends of hospital morbidity from AD in the European Union (EU) in the period 2000 to 2014.

METHODS

Data from hospital discharges of men and women over 50 years old hospitalized due to AD in the EU were extracted from Eurostat database. We tested for secular trends computing anual percent change, and identified significant changes in the linear slope of the trend.

RESULTS

Hospital morbidity from AD showed a 0.8% (95% confidence intervals -2.2 to 0.6) slight declining trend in the EU. In men and women, we recorded a -0.5% and -1.0% decrease in hospital morbidity rates, respectively. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period.

CONCLUSION

Alzheimer's disease hospital morbidity has slightly declined in the entire EU in the past years. Eastern European countries showed steadily increasing trends, whereas in western and Mediterranean countries the rates decreased or leveled off.

Suicide in Serbia

BACKGROUND

Suicide remains a significant public health problem worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality trend of suicide in Serbia for the years 1991-2014.

METHODS

Data on persons who died of suicide and self-inflicted injury (site codes E950-E959 revision 9 and X60-X84 revision 10 of the International Classification of Diseases to classify death, injury and cause of death) were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. The age standardized rate was calculated by direct method (per 100,000 persons, using Segi's World population as standard population). Average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed for trend using the joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Total 33,930 (24,016 men and 9914 women) suicide deaths occurred in Serbia during the observed period, with the average annual age-standardized mortality rate being 12.7 per 100,000 inhabitants (19.5 per 100,000 in men and 6.7 per 100,000 in women). Suicide mortality in all age groups was higher among men than women. In both genders, suicide rates were highest in the oldest age group. Significantly decreased trend in suicide mortality was recorded continuously from 1991 to 2014 (AAPC=-1.9%, 95%CI -2.2 to -1.6). The most frequently used suicide method in both genders was hanging, strangulation or suffocation with 61.2% off all suicides. Changes in mortality rates were significant both for suicide by firearms, air guns and explosives (AAPC=-1.5% (AAPC=-1.5% in men and -3.1%-3.1% in women) and for suicide by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (AAPC=-1.2% (AAPC=-1.2% in men and -3.0%-3.0% in women). In men, nonsignificant increase in suicide by firearms, air guns and explosives observed during the period 1991-1997 (by +6.1% per year) was followed by a significant decrease until 2014 (by -3.1% per year). The significantly increased mortality in suicide by firearms, air guns, and explosives was observed in older men (aged 40-69 years and 80 years and over).

LIMITATIONS

The low rate of autopsies in Serbia, as well as the accuracy, reliability and comparability of the suicide mortality data is always a question.

CONCLUSIONS

Downward trend in suicide mortality occurred in Serbia in last two decades. However, suicide rates are still very high in Serbia compared with the rates of suicides in developed countries. Particularly worrisome is the increase in mortality in older men, especially due to firearm suicides, air rifles, and explosives. Thus, additional efforts in the prevention of suicide are very important.

Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012

BACKGROUND

Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway.

METHOD

Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures, such as restrictions to the access to firearms, which had been implemented in Norway during the relevant time period.

Global trends in incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a rare malignancy with an extraordinarily skewed geographic distribution worldwide. Although decreasing trends in incidence and mortality of NPC have been sporadically reported in some high-risk areas, no comprehensive description of the global trends has ever been made. We accessed incidence (1970-2007) and mortality (1970-2013) data from multiple sources, with the main ones being the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) series and the World Health Organization (WHO) cancer mortality database. During the entire period studied, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of NPC decreased significantly in southern and eastern Asia, north America and Nordic countries with average annual percent changes (AAPCs) of -0.9% to -5.4% in males and -1.1% to -4.1% in females. Declines in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) are even more remarkable and extensive, with AAPCs varying from -0.9% and -0.8% to -3.7% and -6.5% in males and females, respectively. Decreasing trends in NPC incidence are probably due to tobacco control, changes in diets and economic development. Declines in mortality rates are the results of advancements in diagnostic and radiotherapy techniques, as well as decreased incidence rates.

Trends in standardized mortality rates for select groups of cardiovascular diseases in Slovakia between 1980 and 2010

OBJECTIVES

Reducing mortality due to cardiovascular diseases especially in people less than 65 years is one of the main targets of WHO preventive programs. This work aimed to analyse recent trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in Slovakia.

STUDY DESIGN

A descriptive study was implemented with a Joinpoint analysis.

METHODS

Analysis was of annual all circulatory, acute myocardial infarction mortality, and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates, between 1980 and 2010 for Slovakia. Data were stratified by sex and 10-year age group (age 25-85 years). The annual percentage change (APC) and significant changes in the trend were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression.

RESULTS

The standardized mortality rate for all cardiovascular diseases declined in Slovakia between 1980 and 2010 by 25.7% and 30.5% for men and women, respectively. Joinpoint analysis of all cardiovascular disease mortality rates demonstrated statistically significant changes in trends of APC decline for both genders. For men, acceleration in the rate of decline between 2001 and 2010 was observed APC -2.2 (95% CI = -3.5, -1.2) following a slowing of the rate of decline between 1980 and 2001, when the APC reached -0.5 (95% CI = -0.8, -0.3). For women the trend was similar. Between 2003 and 2010 acceleration in the decline was demonstrated APC -2.8 (95% CI = -4.3, -1.4).

CONCLUSION

The results of our analysis demonstrate the need to constantly address issues of cardiovascular diseases, as mortality rates in Slovakia are among the highest within the European Union countries in the long term.

The clinical course of alcohol use disorders: using joinpoint analysis to aid in interpretation of growth mixture models

BACKGROUND

The clinical course of alcohol use disorders (AUD) is marked by great heterogeneity both within and between individuals. One approach to modeling this heterogeneity is latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM), which identifies a number of latent subgroups of drinkers with drinking trajectories that are similar within a latent subgroup but different between subgroups. LGMM is data-driven and uses an iterative process of testing a sequential number researcher-selected of latent subgroups then selecting the best fitting model. Despite the advantages of LGMM (e.g., identifying subgroups among heterogeneous longitudinal data), one limitation is the lack of precision of LGMM to model abrupt changes in drinking during treatment that are often observed by clinicians. Joinpoint analysis (JPA) is a data analysis procedure that is used to identify discrete change points in longitudinal data (e.g., changes from increasing to decreasing or decreasing to increasing).

METHOD

This study presents a demonstration of using JPA as a post hoc procedure for LGMM to improve accuracy in modeling abrupt changes in clinical course of AUD.

RESULTS

Results from this secondary data analysis of 549 AUD participants participating in the NIAAA sponsored relapse replication and extension project uncovered four latent classes of drinking trajectories.

DISCUSSION

Within these trajectories the addition of JPA improved precision in modeling the clinical course of AUDs.