Large-scale climatic drivers of regional winter bird population trends

Long-Term Winter Population Trends of Corvids in Relation to Urbanization and Climate at Northern Latitudes

Simple Summary

Corvids (e.g., crows, magpies and jays) are an important part of urban settlements, especially during winter. To understand the factors affecting the long-term population trends of corvids, we counted wintering corvids in 31 human settlements along a 920 km latitudinal gradient in Finland during four winters between 1991 and 2020. We detected a total of five corvid species, from which the Hooded Crow, the Eurasian Magpie and the Eurasian Jackdaw were found to be common. During the study period, the number of Eurasian Jackdaws increased, and their distribution range moved northwards. No corresponding changes were observed for the Hooded Crow or the Eurasian Magpie. Neither the local-level urban-, climate- nor food-related factors correlated with the changes in the numbers and growth rates of the corvids. No interspecific interactions were observed. We assume that the Eurasian Jackdaw has benefitted from the decreased persecution, and probably also from the large-scale climate warming. Our results suggest that urban settlements are quite stable wintering environments for generalist and omnivorous corvids.

Abstract

Corvids (crows, magpies, jays) live in a close association with humans, and therefore knowledge about their population status and changes will be an essential part of monitoring the quality of urban environments. Wintering bird populations can track habitat and climate changes more rapidly than breeding populations. We conducted a long-term (1991–2020) winter census of corvid species in 31 human settlements along a 920 km latitudinal gradient in Finland. We observed a total of five corvid species: the Eurasian Magpie (occurring in 114 surveys out of 122; total abundance 990 ind.), the Hooded Crow (in 96 surveys; 666 ind.), the Eurasian Jackdaw (in 51 surveys; 808 ind.), the Eurasian Jay (in 5 surveys; 6 ind.) and the Rook (in 1 survey; 1 ind.). Only the numbers of the Eurasian Jackdaw differed between the study winters, being greater at the end of the study period (2019/2020) than during the earlier winters (1991/1992 and 1999/2000). The average growth rate (λ) of the Eurasian Jackdaw increased during the study period, whereas no changes were observed in the cases of the Hooded Crow or the Eurasian Magpie. The growth rate of the Eurasian Jackdaw was greater than that observed in the Finnish bird-monitoring work, probably because our data came only from the core area of each human settlement. Even though the number of buildings and their cover increased in the study plots, and the winter temperature differed between winters, the average growth rate (λ) of corvid species did not significantly correlate with these variables. These results suggest that urban settlements are stable wintering environments for the generalist corvids. The between-species interactions were all positive, but non-significant. Despite the total number of winter-feeding sites being greater during the winter of 1991/1992 than during the winter of 2019/2020, the changes in the numbers of feeding stations did not correlate with the growth rates of any corvid species. We assume that the Eurasian Jackdaw has benefitted from the decreased persecution, and probably also from large-scale climate warming that our study design was unable to take in to account. Our results indicated that wintering corvid populations succeed well in the human settlements in Finland. We recommend conducting long-term corvid research, also during breeding season, to understand more detailed causes of the population changes of corvids along an urban gradient. Without year-round long-term monitoring data, the conservation and management recommendations related to the corvid species in urban habitats may be misleading.

Snow depth drives habitat selection by overwintering birds in built-up areas, farmlands and forests

AIM

Abundances of animals vary according to species-specific habitat selection, but habitats are undergoing rapid change in response to anthropogenic alterations of land use and climate. The long-term decline of snowfall is one of the most dramatic abiotic changes in boreal regions, with potential to alter species communities and shape future ecosystems. However, the effects of snow cover on habitat-specific abundances remain unclear for many taxa. Here we explore whether long-term declines in snow cover affect the abundances of overwintering birds.

TAXON

Fifty bird species.

LOCATION

Finland, Northern Europe.

METHODS

We used generalized linear mixed models to analyse citizen-led monitoring data from 196 transects over a 32-year period to assess whether abundances of birds have changed in built-up areas, farmlands and forests, and whether these covary with warming temperatures and decreasing snow. We then explored if changes in abundance can be explained by body mass, migration strategy or feeding guilds of the species.

RESULTS

Over the study period, the abundance of overwintering birds increased. This increase was most pronounced in farmlands (69.6%), where abundances were positively associated with decreasing snow depth. On the other hand, while abundances in built-up habitats (19.5%) decreased over the study period, they increased in periods of high snow depths. Finally, we found that the short-distance migration strategy explains changes in bird abundances with snow. In farmlands, ground feeding birds and heavier birds also show a positive trends in abundance with decreasing snow depths.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Local snow conditions are driving habitat selection of birds in the winter; birds in farmlands were most responsive to a decrease in snow depth. Changing snow depths can affect bird movements across habitats in the winter, but also influence migratory patterns and range shifts of species.

Species Traits Drive Long-Term Population Trends of Common Breeding Birds in Northern Italy

Long-term population trends are considerable sources of information to set wildlife conservation priorities and to evaluate the performance of management actions. In addition, trends observed in functional groups (e.g., trophic guilds) can provide the foundation to test specific hypotheses about the drivers of the observed population dynamics. The aims of this study were to assess population trends of breeding birds in Lombardy (N Italy) from 1992 to 2019 and to explore the relationships between trends and species sharing similar ecological and life history traits. Trends were quantified and tested for significance by weighted linear regression models and using yearly population indices (median and 95% confidence interval) predicted through generalized additive models. Results showed that 45% of the species increased, 24% decreased, and 31% showed non-significant trends. Life history traits analyses revealed a general decrease of migrants, of species with short incubation period and of species with high annual fecundity. Ecological traits analyses showed that plant-eaters and species feeding on invertebrates, farmland birds, and ground-nesters declined, while woodland birds increased. Further studies should focus on investigation of the relationship between long-term trends and species traits at large spatial scales, and on quantifying the effects of specific drivers across multiple functional groups.

New measures for evaluation of environmental perturbations using Before-After-Control-Impact analyses

Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) designs are powerful tools to derive inferences about environmental perturbations (e.g., hurricanes, restoration programs) when controlled experimental designs are unfeasible. Applications of BACI designs mostly rely on testing for a significant interaction between periods and treatments (so-called BACI contrast) to demonstrate the effects of the perturbation. However, significant interactions can emerge for several reasons, including when changes are larger in control sites, such that additional diagnostics must be performed to determine the full complexity of system changes. We propose two measures that detail the nature of change implied by BACI contrasts, along with its uncertainty. CI-divergence (Control-Impact divergence) quantifies to what extent control and impact sites have diverged between the after and the before period, whereas CI-contribution (Control-Impact contribution) quantifies to what extent the change between periods is stronger in impact sites relative to control sites. To illustrate how these two CI measures can be combined with BACI contrast to gain insights about effects of environmental perturbations, we used count data from the Swedish Breeding Bird Survey to investigate how hurricane Gudrun affected the long-term abundances of four bird species in forested areas of southern Sweden. Before-After-Control-Impact contrasts suggested the hurricane affected all four species. However, the values of the two CI measures strongly differed, even among species showing similar BACI contrasts. Those differences highlight qualitatively distinct population trajectories between periods and treatments requiring different ecological explanations. Overall, we show that BACI contrasts do not provide the full story in assessing the effects of environmental perturbations. The two CI measures can be used to assist ecological interpretations, or to specify detailed hypotheses about effects of restoration actions to allow stronger confirmatory inference about their outcomes. By providing a framework to develop more detailed explanations and hypotheses about ecological changes, the two CI measures can improve conclusions and strengthen evidence of effects of conservation actions and impact assessments under BACI designs.

Time, geography and weather provide insights into the ecological strategy of a migrant species

Farmland and migratory bird populations are in decline. The Common quail (Coturnix coturnix) provides an exception to this trend and its populations have remained stable over the last two decades. However, some basic facts regarding quail biology and ecology, such as the geographic distribution of age and sex classes during the summer, remain poorly understood. We analyzed 43,194 Spanish quail ringing records from 1961 to 2014 to assess the effects of geography and weather conditions on the probability that individuals will be ringed during the various stages of their annual cycle (arrival -spring migration-, stationary breeding period, departure -autumn migration- and winter) for the different quail age-sex classes over time. We found that spatial distribution of the age and sex classes can be explained by date, latitude, longitude, altitude, rainfall, and temperature. Our results suggest that date accounts for most of the variation in the distribution of quail age classes, followed by the weather variables, and then latitude, and altitude. Similarly, date also accounts for most of the variation in the distribution of the two sexes. These results could partially explain why this species has avoided population decline, since its ecological strategy is based on its temporal and spatial distribution combined with the segregation of age and sex groups. We hypothesize that the distribution of quail age and sex classes follows variations in weather and habitat suitability to exploit seasonal and geographic variations in resource availability. The migratory and nomadic movements of quail, combined with the occurrence of multiple breeding attempts within a single season, may also allow these birds to overcome the impacts of predators and anthropogenic environmental change. Conservation and management efforts should therefore take account of these age and sex related temporal and spatial patterns.

Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km² from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km²) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.