Gradients of disturbance and environmental conditions shape coral community structure for south-eastern Indian Ocean reefs

Drivers of coastal benthic communities in a complex environmental setting

Analyzing the environmental factors affecting benthic communities in coastal areas is crucial for uncovering key factors that require conservation action. Here, we collected benthic and environmental (physical-chemical-historical and land-based) data for 433 transects in Taiwan. Using a k-means approach, five communities dominated by crustose coralline algae, turfs, stony corals, digitate, or bushy octocorals were first delineated. Conditional random forest models then identified physical, chemical, and land-based factors (e.g., light intensity, nitrite, and population density) relevant to community delineation and occurrence. Historical factors, including typhoons and temperature anomalies, had only little effect. The prevalent turf community correlated positively with chemical and land-based drivers, which suggests that anthropogenic impacts are causing a benthic homogenization. This mechanism may mask the effects of climate disturbances and regional differentiation of benthic assemblages. Consequently, management of nutrient enrichment and terrestrial runoff is urgently needed to improve community resilience in Taiwan amidst increasing challenges of climate change.

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Physical, biological and anthropogenic drivers of spatial patterns of coral reef fish assemblages at regional and local scales

Species abundance, diversity and community assemblage structure are determined by multiple physical, habitat and management drivers that operate across multiple spatial scales. Here we used a multi-scale coral reef monitoring dataset to examine regional and local differences in the abundance, species richness and composition of fish assemblages in no-take marine reserve (NTMR) and fished zones at four island groups in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. We applied boosted regression trees to quantify the influence of 20 potential drivers on the coral reef fish assemblages. Reefs in two locations, Magnetic Island and the Keppel Islands, had distinctive fish assemblages and low species richness, while the Palm and Whitsunday Islands had similar species composition and higher species richness. Overall, our analyses identified several important physical (temperature, wave exposure) and biological (coral, turf, macroalgal and unconsolidated substratum cover) drivers of inshore reef fish communities, some of which are being altered by human activities. Of these, sea surface temperature (SST) was more influential at large scales, while wave exposure was important both within and between island groups. Species richness declined with increasing macroalgal cover and exposure to cyclones, and increased with SST. Species composition was most strongly influenced by mean SST and percent cover of macroalgae. There was substantial regional variation in the local drivers of spatial patterns. Although NTMR zoning influenced total fish density in some regions, it had negligible effects on fish species richness, composition and trophic structure because of the relatively small number of species targeted by the fishery. These findings show that inshore reef fishes are directly influenced by disturbances typical of the nearshore Great Barrier Reef, highlighting the need to complement global action on climate change with more targeted localised efforts to maintain or improve the condition of coral reef habitats.

Divergent recovery trajectories of intertidal and subtidal coral communities highlight habitat-specific recovery dynamics following bleaching in an extreme macrotidal reef environment

Coral reefs face an uncertain future punctuated by recurring climate-induced disturbances. Understanding how reefs can recover from and reassemble after mass bleaching events is therefore important to predict their responses and persistence in a rapidly changing ocean. On naturally extreme reefs characterized by strong daily temperature variability, coral heat tolerance can vary significantly over small spatial gradients but it remains poorly understood how this impacts bleaching resilience and recovery dynamics, despite their importance as resilience hotspots and potential refugia. In the macrotidal Kimberley region in NW Australia, the 2016 global mass bleaching event had a strong habitat-specific impact on intertidal and subtidal coral communities at our study site: corals in the thermally variable intertidal bleached less severely and recovered within six months, while 68% of corals in the moderately variable subtidal died. We therefore conducted benthic surveys 3.5 years after the bleaching event to determine potential changes in benthic cover and coral community composition. In the subtidal, we documented substantial increases in algal cover and live coral cover had not fully recovered to pre-bleaching levels. Furthermore, the subtidal coral community shifted from being dominated by branching Acropora corals with a competitive life history strategy to opportunistic, weedy Pocillopora corals which likely has implications for the functioning and stress resilience of this novel coral community. In contrast, no shifts in algal and live coral cover or coral community composition occurred in the intertidal. These findings demonstrate that differences in coral heat tolerance across small spatial scales can have large consequences for bleaching resilience and that spatial patchiness in recovery trajectories and community reassembly after bleaching might be a common feature on thermally variable reefs. Our findings further confirm that reefs adapted to high daily temperature variability play a key role as resilience hotspots under current climate conditions, but their ability to do so may be limited under intensifying ocean warming.

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

Oceanic differences in coral-bleaching responses to marine heatwaves

Anomalously high ocean temperatures have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration over the last several decades because of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and marine heatwaves. Reef-building corals are sensitive to such temperature anomalies that commonly lead to coral bleaching, mortality, and changes in community structure. Yet, despite these overarching effects, there are geographical differences in thermal regimes, evolutionary histories, and past disturbances that may lead to different bleaching responses of corals within and among oceans. Here we examined the overall bleaching responses of corals in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using both a spatially explicit Bayesian mixed-effects model and a deep-learning neural-network model. We used a 40-year global dataset encompassing 23,288 coral-reef surveys at 11,058 sites in 88 countries, from 1980 to 2020. Focusing on ocean-wide differences we assessed the relationships between the percentage of bleached corals and different temperature-related metrics alongside a suite of environmental variables. We found that while high sea-surface temperatures were consistently, and strongly, related to coral bleaching within all oceans, there were clear geographical differences in the relationships between coral bleaching and most environmental variables. For instance, there was an increase in coral bleaching with depth in the Atlantic Ocean whereas the opposite was observed in the Indian Ocean, and no clear trend could be seen in the Pacific Ocean. The standard deviation of thermal-stress anomalies was negatively related to coral bleaching in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but not in the Indian Ocean. Globally, coral bleaching has progressively occurred at higher temperatures over the last four decades within the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, although, again, there were differences among the three oceans. Together, such patterns highlight that historical circumstances and geographical differences in oceanographic conditions play a central role in contemporary coral-bleaching responses.

Corals at the edge of environmental limits: A new conceptual framework to re-define marginal and extreme coral communities

The worldwide decline of coral reefs has renewed interest in coral communities at the edge of environmental limits because they have the potential to serve as resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and can provide insights into how coral reefs might function in future ocean conditions. These coral communities are often referred to as marginal or extreme but few definitions exist and usage of these terms has therefore been inconsistent. This creates significant challenges for categorising these often poorly studied communities and synthesising data across locations. Furthermore, this impedes our understanding of how coral communities can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and the lessons they provide for future coral reef survival. Here, we propose that marginal and extreme coral communities are related but distinct and provide a novel conceptual framework to redefine them. Specifically, we define coral reef extremeness solely based on environmental conditions (i.e., large deviations from optimal conditions in terms of mean and/or variance) and marginality solely based on ecological criteria (i.e., altered community composition and/or ecosystem functioning). This joint but independent assessment of environmental and ecological criteria is critical to avoid common pitfalls where coral communities existing outside the presumed optimal conditions for coral reef development are automatically considered inferior to coral reefs in more traditional settings. We further evaluate the differential potential of marginal and extreme coral communities to serve as natural laboratories, resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and discuss strategies for their conservation and management as well as priorities for future research. Our new classification framework provides an important tool to improve our understanding of how corals can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and how we can leverage this knowledge to optimise strategies for coral reef conservation, restoration and management in a rapidly changing ocean.

A contemporary baseline of Madagascar's coral assemblages: Reefs with high coral diversity, abundance, and function associated with marine protected areas

Madagascar is a major hotspot of biodiversity in the Western Indian Ocean, but, as in many other regions, coral reefs surrounding the island confront large-scale disturbances and human-induced local stressors. Conservation actions have been implemented with encouraging results for fisheries, though their benefit on coral assemblages has never been rigorously addressed. In this context, we analyzed the multiscale spatial variation of the composition, generic richness, abundance, life history strategies, and cover of coral assemblages among 18 stations placed at three regions around the island. The potential influences of marine protected areas (MPAs), algal cover, substrate rugosity, herbivorous fish biomass, and geographic location were also analyzed. Our results highlight the marked spatial variability, with variation at either or both regional and local scales for all coral descriptors. The northeast coastal region of Masoala was characterized by the high abundance of coral colonies, most notably of the competitive Acropora and Pocillopora genera and stress-tolerant taxa at several stations. The southwest station of Salary Nord was distinguished by lower abundances, with depauperate populations of competitive taxa. On the northwest coast, Nosy-Be was characterized by higher diversity and abundance as well as by high coral cover (~42-70%) recorded at unfished stations. Results clearly underline the positive effects of MPAs on all but one of the coral descriptors, particularly at Nosy-Be where the highest contrast between fished and unfished stations was observed. Biomass of herbivorous fishes, crustose coralline algae cover, and substrate rugosity were also positively related to several coral descriptors. The occurrence of reefs with high diversity, abundance, and cover of corals, including the competitive Acropora, is a major finding of this study. Our results strongly support the implementation of locally managed marine areas with strong involvement by primary users, particularly to assist in management in countries with reduced logistic and human resources such as Madagascar.

Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change

Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and reduce coral cover on reefs, yet few studies have identified "bright spots," where corals have recently shown a capacity to survive such pressures. We analyzed 7714 worldwide surveys from 1997 to 2018 along with 14 environmental and temperature metrics in a hierarchical Bayesian model to identify conditions that contribute to present-day coral cover. We also identified locations with significantly higher (i.e., "bright spots") and lower coral cover (i.e., "dark spots") than regionally expected. In addition, using 4-km downscaled data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, we projected coral cover on reefs for the years 2050 and 2100. Coral cover on modern reefs was positively associated with historically high maximum sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and negatively associated with high contemporary SSTs, tropical-cyclone frequencies, and human-population densities. By 2100, under RCP8.5, we projected relative decreases in coral cover of >40% on most reefs globally but projected less decline on reefs in Indonesia, Malaysia, the central Philippines, New Caledonia, Fiji, and French Polynesia, which should be focal localities for multinational networks of protected areas.

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of gene-environmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalised dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

A tale of two reef systems: Local conditions, disturbances, coral life histories, and the climate catastrophe

Coral reefs have evolved over millennia to survive disturbances. Yet, in just a few decades chronic local pressures and the climate catastrophe have accelerated so quickly that most coral reefs are now threatened. Rising ocean temperatures and recurrent bleaching pose the biggest threat, affecting even remote and well-managed reefs on global scales. We illustrate how coral bleaching is altering reefs by contrasting the dynamics of adjacent reef systems over more than two decades. Both reef systems sit near the edge of northwest Australia's continental shelf, have escaped chronic local pressures and are regularly affected by tropical storms and cyclones. The Scott reef system has experienced multiple bleaching events, including mass bleaching in 1998 and 2016, from which it is unlikely to fully recover. The Rowley Shoals has maintained a high cover and diversity of corals and has not yet been impacted by mass bleaching. We show how the dynamics of both reef systems were driven by a combination of local environment, exposure to disturbances and coral life history traits, and consider future shifts in community structure with ongoing climate change. We then demonstrate how applying knowledge of community dynamics at local scales can aid management strategies to slow the degradation of coral reefs until carbon emissions and other human impacts are properly managed.

Coral reef fishes reveal strong divergence in the prevalence of traits along the global diversity gradient

Coral reefs are experiencing declines due to climate change and local human impacts. While at a local scale these impacts induce biodiversity loss and shifts in community structure, previous biogeographical analyses recorded consistent taxonomic structure of fish communities across global coral reefs. This suggests that regional communities represent a random subset of the global species and traits pool, whatever their species richness. Using distributional data on 3586 fish species and latest advances in species distribution models, we show marked gradients in the prevalence of size classes and diet categories across the biodiversity gradient. This divergence in trait structure is best explained by reef isolation during past unfavourable climatic conditions, with large and piscivore fishes better represented in isolated areas. These results suggest the risk of a global community re-organization if the ongoing climate-induced reef fragmentation is not halted.

Population dynamics and growth rates of free-living mushroom corals (Scleractinia: Fungiidae) in the sediment-stressed reefs of Singapore

The reefs of Singapore provide an excellent opportunity to study the population dynamics and growth rates of free-living mushroom corals (Fungiidae) under sediment-stressed conditions. Transect surveys at four study sites revealed a total of 11 free-living mushroom coral species-the same 11 species as those found by local studies since the 1980s. The abundance of the four most common species ranged from 1.0 to 68.3 Ind. per 100m², while their population size-structure showed a common pattern of a higher proportion of small-sized corals than large-sized ones (i.e. positively skewed size-structure), although very few individuals of the smallest-size classes were recorded for any of the four species. A more positively skewed size-structure for each of the four most common species was observed at the reef slope (5-6m depth) than at the reef crest (2-3m depth), possibly due to a slower growth rate caused by light reduction with depth. All the mushroom corals studied exhibited a decline in growth rate with increasing size and weight, indicating determinate growth. Growth rate of each of the four most common species was similar among the study sites, despite variation in environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate species richness stability over the past three decades, suggesting that these free-living mushroom coral assemblages comprise species that are well-adapted to the chronic high sedimentation characteristic of Singapore's reefs. However, if the paucity of individuals of the smallest-size classes reflects poor recruitment and/or early mortality, there may be some cause for concern. Our robust baseline data can contribute to a long-term monitoring strategy for determination of changes in mushroom coral population dynamics.

Coral community life histories and population dynamics driven by seascape bathymetry and temperature variability

Temperature variability, habitat, coral communities, and fishing intensity are important factors influencing coral responses to climate change. Consequently, chronic and acute sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and their interactions with habitat and fishing were studied along the East African coast (~400km) by evaluating changes over a ~25-year period in two major reef habitats-island and fringing reefs. These habitats had similar mean and standard deviation temperature measurements but differed in that islands had lower ocean heights and flatter and less right-skewed temperature distributions than fringing reefs. These patterns arise because islands are exposed to deep offshore water passing through deep channels while being protected from the open ocean storms and the strong inter-annual current temperature variability. Within these two seascapes, coral communities are shaped by population responses to the variable temperature distributions as determined by the taxa's associations with the competitive-stress-ruderal (CSR) life history groups. For example, competitive taxa were more abundant where temperature distributions were flat and lacked frequent warm water anomalies. In contrast, ruderal, weedy, and generalist taxa were more common where temperature distributions were centralized, standard deviations high, and warm water anomalies more frequent. Finally, stress-resistant taxa were more common in reefs with high temperature skew but flatter temperature distributions. The rare 1998 thermal anomaly impacted and disturbed the ruderal and stressed reef more than the competitive communities. Ruderal became more similar to stressed communities while the stressed community moved further from the mean before recovering towards the competitive community. Competitive taxa were more common on islands and the deeper fringing reef sites while ruderal were dominant in shallow fringing reef lagoons. Over time, islands were less disturbed than fringing reefs and maintained the highest coral cover, numbers of taxa, and most competitive or space-occupying taxa. However, some island reefs with a history of dynamite fishing aligned with the stress-resistant communities over the full study period. Compared to the in situ SST gauges at the study site, temperature proxies with global coverage were often good at estimating mean and standard deviations of the SSTs but much poorer at estimating the shape of the temperature distributions that reflect chronic and acute stress, as reflected by kurtosis and skewness metrics. Given that these stress variables were critical for understanding the impacts of rare climate disturbances, global climate models that use mean conditions are likely to be poor predictors of future impacts on corals, particularly their species and life history composition. Better predictions should be possible if appropriate chronic and acute stress metrics and their proxies are identified and used.

Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that can damage coral reef communities. Recovery typically requires up to a decade, driving the trajectory of coral community structure. Coral reefs have evolved over millennia with cyclones. Increasingly, however, processes of recovery are interrupted and compromised by additional pressures (thermal stress, pollution, diseases, predators). Understanding how cyclones interact with other pressures to threaten coral reefs underpins spatial prioritization of conservation and management interventions. Models that simulate coral responses to cumulative pressures often assume that the worst cyclone wave damage occurs within ~100 km of the track. However, we show major coral loss at exposed sites up to 800 km from a cyclone that was both strong (high sustained wind speeds >=33 m/s) and big (widespread circulation >~300 km), using numerical wave models and field data from northwest Australia. We then calculate the return time of big and strong cyclones, big cyclones of any strength and strong cyclones of any size, for each of 150 coral reef ecoregions using a global data set of past cyclones from 1985 to 2015. For the coral ecoregions that regularly were exposed to cyclones during that time, we find that 75% of them were exposed to at least one cyclone that was both big and strong. Return intervals of big and strong cyclones are already less than 5 years for 13 ecoregions, primarily in the cyclone-prone NW Pacific, and less than 10 years for an additional 14 ecoregions. We identify ecoregions likely at higher risk in future given projected changes in cyclone activity. Robust quantification of the spatial distribution of likely cyclone wave damage is vital not only for understanding past coral response to pressures, but also for predicting how this may change as the climate continues to warm and the relative frequency of the strongest cyclones rises.

Responses of corals to chronic turbidity

Dredging increases suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs), causing elevated water turbidity (cloudiness) and light attenuation. Close to dredging, low light periods can extend over many days, affecting phototrophic epibenthic organisms like corals. To improve the ability to predict and manage dredging impacts, we tested the response of corals to an extended period of elevated turbidity using an automated sediment dosing system that precisely controlled SSCs and adjusted light availability accordingly. Replicates of four common species of corals encompassing different morphologies were exposed to turbidity treatments of 0-100 mg L-1 SSC, corresponding to daily light integrals of 12.6 to 0 mol quanta m-2 d-1, over a period of ∼7 weeks. Symbiotic dinoflagellate density and algal pigment concentration, photosynthetic yields, lipid concentrations and ratios and growth varied among the turbidity treatments, with corals exhibiting photoacclimation within low turbidity treatments. A range of physiological responses were observed within the high turbidity treatments (low light), including bleaching and changes in lipid levels and ratios. Most corals, except P. damicornis, were capable of adjusting to a turbidity treatment involving a mean light level of 2.3 mol photons m-2 d-1 in conjunction with a SSC of 10 mg L-1 over the 7 week period.

Long-term dynamics and drivers of coral and macroalgal cover on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park

Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high-sediment, high-nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world-leading management, including networks of no-take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40-50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long-term (12-18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance-and-recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea-surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local-scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances.

Cross-shelf Heterogeneity of Coral Assemblages in Northwest Australia

Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of coral assemblages and the processes structuring those patterns is fundamental to managing reef assemblages. Cross-shelf marine systems exhibit pronounced and persistent gradients in environmental conditions; however, these gradients are not always reliable predictors of coral distribution or the degree of stress that corals are experiencing. This study used information from government, industry and scientific datasets spanning 1980–2017, to explore temporal trends in coral cover in the geographically complex system of the Dampier Archipelago, northwest Australia. Coral composition at 15 sites surveyed in 2017 was also modelled against environmental and spatial variables (including turbidity, degree heat weeks, wave exposure, and distance to land/mainland/isobath) to assess their relative importance in structuring coral assemblages. High spatial and temporal heterogeneity was observed in coral cover and recovery trajectories, with reefs located an intermediate distance from the shore maintaining high cover over the past 20 years. The abundance of some prominent genera in 2017 (Acropora, Porites, and Turbinaria spp.) decreased with the distance from the mainland, suggesting that inshore processes play an important role in dictating the distribution of these genera. The atypical distributions of these key reef-building corals and spatial heterogeneity of historical recovery trajectories highlight the risks in making assumptions regarding cross-shelf patterns in geographically complex systems.