Predicted distributions of avian specialists: A framework for conservation of endangered forests under future climates

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

Under the changing climate, the persistence of Afrotemperate taxa may be threatened as suitable habitat availability decreases. The unique disjunct ranges of podocarps in southern Africa raise questions about the persistence of these species under climate change. Here, we identified likely environmental drivers of these distributions, characterized the current and future (2070) environmental niches, and projected distributions of four podocarp species in South Africa. Species distribution models were conducted using species locality data for Afrocarpus falcatus, Podocarpus latifolius, Pseudotropheus elongatus and Podocarpus henkelii and both historical climate data (1970-2000) and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5, 2061-2080) to estimate the current and future distributions. We also used this opportunity to identify the most important climatic variables that likely govern each species' distribution. Using niche overlap estimates, a similarity test, and indices of niche expansion, stability and unfilling, we explored how niches change under different climate scenarios. The distribution of the study species was governed by the maximum temperature of the warmest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the wettest, driest and warmest quarters. The current distribution of A. falcatus was predicted to expand to higher elevations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Podocarpus henkelii was predicted to lose most of its suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 and expand under RCP 8.5; however, this was the opposite for P. elongatus and P. latifolius. Interestingly, P. elongatus, which had the smallest geographic distribution, showed the most vulnerability to climate change in comparison to the other podocarps. Mapping the distribution of podocarps and understanding the differences in their current and future climate niches provide insight into potential climate drivers of podocarp persistence and the potential for adaptation of these species. Overall, these results suggest that P. elongatus and P. henkelii may expand to novel environmental niches.

Species-landscape interactions drive divergent population trajectories in four forest-dependent Afromontane forest songbird species within a biodiversity hotspot in South Africa

Species confined to naturally fragmented habitats may exhibit intrinsic population complexity which may challenge interpretations of species response to anthropogenic landscape transformation. In South Africa, where native forests are naturally fragmented, forest-dependent birds have undergone range declines since 1992, most notably among insectivores. These insectivores appear sensitive to the quality of natural matrix habitats, and it is unknown whether transformation of the landscape matrix has disrupted gene flow in these species. We undertook a landscape genetics study of four forest-dependent insectivorous songbirds across southeast South Africa. Microsatellite data were used to conduct a priori optimization of landscape resistance surfaces (land cover, rivers and dams, and elevation) using cost-distances along least-cost pathway (LCP), and resistance distances (IBR). We detected pronounced declines in effective population sizes over the past two centuries for the endemic forest specialist Cossypha dichroa and Batis capensis, alongside recent gene flow disruption in B. capensis, C. dichroa and Pogonocichla stellata. Landscape resistance modelling showed both native forest and dense thicket configuration facilitates gene flow in P. stellata, B. capensis and C. dichroa. Facultative dispersal of P. stellata through dense thicket likely aided resilience against historic landscape transformation, whereas combined forest-thicket degradation adversely affected the forest generalist B. capensis. By contrast, Phylloscopus ruficapilla appears least reliant upon landscape features to maintain gene flow and was least impacted by anthropogenic landscape transformation. Collectively, gene flow in all four species is improved at lower elevations, along river valleys, and riparian corridors- where native forest and dense thicket better persist. Consistent outperformance of LCP over IBR land-cover models for P. stellata, B. capensis and C. dichroa demonstrates the benefits of wildlife corridors for South African forest-dependent bird conservation, to ameliorate the extinction debts from past and present anthropogenic forest exploitation.

Habitat Models of Focal Species Can Link Ecology and Decision-Making in Sustainable Forest Management

A fundamental problem of sustainability is how to reduce the double complexity of ecological and social systems into simple operational terms. We highlight that the conservation concept of focal species (selected species sensitive to a set of anthropogenic threats to their habitat) links multiple issues of ecological sustainability, and their habitat models can provide a practical tool for solving these issues. A review of the literature shows that most spatial modeling of focal species focuses on vertebrates, lacks the aspect of aquatic and soil habitats, and has been slow in the uptake by actual management planning. We elaborate on a deductive modeling approach that first generalizes the main influential dimensions of habitat change (threats), which are then parameterized as habitat quality estimates for focal species. If built on theoretical understanding and properly scaled, the maps produced with such models can cost-effectively describe the dynamics of ecological qualities across forest landscapes, help set conservation priorities, and reflect on management plans and practices. The models also serve as ecological hypotheses on biodiversity and landscape function. We illustrate this approach based on recent additions to the forest reserve network in Estonia, which addressed the insufficient protection of productive forest types. For this purpose, mostly former production forests that may require restoration were set aside. We distinguished seven major habitat dimensions and their representative taxa in these forests and depicted each dimension as a practical stand-scale decision tree of habitat quality. The model outcomes implied that popular stand-structural targets of active forest restoration would recover passively in reasonable time in these areas, while a critically degraded condition (loss of old trees of characteristic species) required management beyond reserve borders. Another hidden issue revealed was that only a few stands of consistently low habitat quality concentrated in the landscape to allow cost-efficient restoration planning. We conclude that useful habitat models for sustainable forest management have to balance single-species realism with stakeholder expectations of meaningful targets and scales. Addressing such social aspects through the focal species concept could accelerate the adoption of biodiversity distribution modeling in forestry.