Factors predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus: decision-curve analysis

Risk prediction models for postpartum glucose intolerance in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus: a scoping review

Objective

The objective of this scoping review was to investigate the effectiveness and limitations of risk prediction models for postpartum glucose intolerance in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The aim was to provide valuable insights for healthcare professionals in the development of robust risk prediction models.

Methods

A comprehensive literature search was conducted across multiple databases, including PubMed, EBSCO, Web of Science Core Collection, Ovid Full-Text Medical Journal Database, ProQuest, Elsevier ClinicalKey, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Biology Medicine, and WanFang Database, spanning from January 1990 to July 2023. To assess the quality of the included models, the Predictive Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was employed.

Results

Fourteen relevant studies were identified and included in the final review, all focusing on model development. The discrimination ability of the included models ranged from 0.725 to 0.940, indicating satisfactory prediction accuracy. However, a notable limitation was that nine of these models (64.3%) did not provide clear guidelines on the selection of potential predictors. Furthermore, only six models (42.86%) underwent internal validation, with none undergoing external validation. A high risk of bias was observed across the included models. Logistic regression, Cox regression, and machine learning were the primary methods employed in the construction of these models.

Conclusion

The risk prediction models included in this review demonstrated favorable prediction accuracy. However, due to variations in construction methodologies, direct comparison of their performance is challenging. These models exhibited certain shortcomings, such as inadequate handling of missing data and a lack of internal and external validation, resulting in a high risk of bias. Therefore, it is recommended that these models be updated and externally validated. The development of prospective, multi-center studies is encouraged to construct predictive models with low risk of bias and high clinical applicability, ultimately guiding evidence-based clinical practice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-023-01330-1.

Depression and diet-related distress among Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus

Although the association between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and maternal postpartum depression has been reported, the association between these two factors during pregnancy has not been sufficiently examined. We compared pregnant women with and without GDM to clarify the association and examined factors related to depression in pregnant women with GDM. Questionnaires were administered longitudinally to pregnant Japanese women in the third trimester and at 2 and 4 weeks postpartum. One hundred and five and 108 pregnant women with and without GDM, respectively, were included in the study. Of the 105 women with GDM, 20 (19.0%) reported being depressed during pregnancy, which was significantly higher than that among those without GDM (9.3%). Binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that depression was significantly positively associated with diet-related distress and negatively associated with social support among women with GDM. Diet-related distress and social support are important factors in managing depression in pregnant women with GDM.

Risk factors associated with early postpartum glucose intolerance in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This meta-analysis was aimed at exploring the incidence and risk factors of glucose intolerance in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) at 6-12 weeks postpartum to inform the development of preventive strategies.

METHOD

We searched Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, Ovid, China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI), Wanfang Database and China Biology Medicine Database for entries between January 1990 and September 2022. The search terms included gestational diabetes mellitus, postpartum, glucose intolerance and type 2 diabetes. The meta-analysis was conducted using Stata 14.0.

RESULT

We included 37 studies, with 21 and 16 having low and medium risk of bias, respectively. The incidence of glucose intolerance in women with GDM 6-12 weeks postpartum was 27% (95% CI: 0.22-0.33). The following risk factors for GDM 6-12 weeks postpartum were identified: insulin use during pregnancy (OR = 3.23; 95% CI: 2.35-4.44), family history of diabetes (OR = 2.94; 95% CI: 1.98-4.33), abnormal fasting glucose levels at 24-28 weeks of gestation (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.07-1.25), high pre-pregnancy BMI (OR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.23-2.15), abnormal triglyceride levels during 28-40 weeks of gestation (OR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.18-4.03), abnormal HbA1c levels at 28-40 weeks of gestation (OR = 6.62; 95% CI: 4.71-9.30), history of previous GDM (OR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.27-3.49), and high 1-h glucose levels at 24-28 weeks of gestation (OR = 1.16; 95% CI:1.06-1.28).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of glucose intolerance in GDM patients at 6-12 weeks postpartum was high. To prevent early postpartum glucose intolerance, healthcare providers should develop individualized interventions for GDM patients, depending on existing risk factors.

Models Predicting Postpartum Glucose Intolerance Among Women with a History of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: a Systematic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Despite the crucial role that prediction models play in guiding early risk stratification and timely intervention to prevent type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), their use is not widespread in clinical practice. The purpose of this review is to examine the methodological characteristics and quality of existing prognostic models predicting postpartum glucose intolerance following GDM.

RECENT FINDINGS

A systematic review was conducted on relevant risk prediction models, resulting in 15 eligible publications from research groups in various countries. Our review found that traditional statistical models were more common than machine learning models, and only two were assessed to have a low risk of bias. Seven were internally validated, but none were externally validated. Model discrimination and calibration were done in 13 and four studies, respectively. Various predictors were identified, including body mass index, fasting glucose concentration during pregnancy, maternal age, family history of diabetes, biochemical variables, oral glucose tolerance test, use of insulin in pregnancy, postnatal fasting glucose level, genetic risk factors, hemoglobin A1c, and weight. The existing prognostic models for glucose intolerance following GDM have various methodological shortcomings, with only a few models being assessed to have low risk of bias and validated internally. Future research should prioritize the development of robust, high-quality risk prediction models that follow appropriate guidelines, in order to advance this area and improve early risk stratification and intervention for glucose intolerance and type 2 diabetes among women who have had GDM.

Predictive factors for postpartum glucose intolerance in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

AIM

The aim of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate the risk factors for postpartum glucose intolerance (GI) in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHOD

A total of 140 women with GDM were enrolled. Of these, 115 underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at 12 weeks after delivery. Clinical factors and parameters in the antepartum 75-g OGTT associated with postpartum GI were evaluated by logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Twenty-two (19.1%) of the 115 women with GDM developed postpartum GI. The univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that low oral disposition index (DI) was a risk factor for postpartum GI (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.04-0.7; p < 0.05), and that no clinical factors were associated with postpartum GI.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower oral DI on the antepartum 75-g OGTT may be a useful marker for identifying GDM women who are at high risk for postpartum GI.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Among Asians - A Systematic Review From a Population Health Perspective

OBJECTIVE

Since Asians are particularly vulnerable to the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), the lifecourse health implications of which are far beyond pregnancy, we aimed to summarize the literature to understand the research gaps on current GDM research among Asians.

METHODS

We systematically searched the articles in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus by 30 June 2021 with keywords applied on three topics, namely "GDM prevalence in Asians", "GDM and maternal health outcomes in Asians", and "GDM and offspring health outcomes in Asians".

RESULTS

We observed that Asian women (natives and immigrants) are at the highest risk of developing GDM and subsequent progression to type 2 diabetes among all populations. Children born to GDM-complicated pregnancies had a higher risk of macrosomia and congenital anomalies (i.e. heart, kidney and urinary tract) at birth and greater adiposity later in life.

CONCLUSION

This review summarized various determinants underlying the conversion between GDM and long-term health outcomes in Asian women, and it might shed light on efforts to prevent GDM and improve the lifecourse health in Asians from a public health perspective.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

Prospero, CRD42021286075.

Bihormonal dysregulation of insulin and glucagon contributes to glucose intolerance development at one year post-delivery in women with gestational diabetes: a prospective cohort study using an early postpartum 75-g glucose tolerance test

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is known to be a significant risk factor for the future development of type 2 diabetes. Here, we investigated whether a precise evaluation of β- and α-cell functions helps to identify women at high risk of developing glucose intolerance after GDM. Fifty-six women with GDM underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at early (6-12 weeks) postpartum. We measured their concentrations of glucose, insulin, proinsulin and glucagon at fasting and 30, 60 and 120 min. At 1-year post-delivery, we classified the women into a normal glucose tolerance (NGT) group or an impaired glucose tolerance (IGT)/diabetes mellitus (DM) group. Forty-three of the 56 women completed the study. At 1-year post-delivery, 17 women had developed IGT/DM and 26 women showed NGT. In the early-postpartum OGTTs, the IGT/DM group showed a lower insulinogenic index, a less glucagon suppression evaluated by the change from fasting to 30 min (ΔGlucagon 30 min), and a higher glucagon-to-insulin ratio at 30 min compared to the NGT group. There were no significant between-group differences in proinsulin levels or proinsulin-to-insulin ratios. Insulinogenic index <0.6 and ΔGlucagon 30 min >0 pg/mL were identified as predictors for the development of IGT/DM after GDM, independent of age, body mass index, and lactation intensity. These results suggest that the bihormonal disorder of insulin and glucagon causes the postpartum development of glucose intolerance. The measurement of plasma insulin and glucagon during the initial OGTT at early postpartum period can help to make optimal decisions regarding the postpartum management of women with GDM.