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Duan J, Wang M, Sam NB, Tian Q, Zheng T, Chen Y, Deng X, Liu Y. The development and validation of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for mortality among older adults. SSM Popul Health 2024; 25:101605. [PMID: 38292049 PMCID: PMC10825771 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2024.101605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Revised: 10/15/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective This research aims to construct and authenticate a comprehensive predictive model for all-cause mortality, based on a multifaceted array of risk factors. Methods The derivation cohort for this study was the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), while the Healthy Ageing and Biomarkers Cohort Study (HABCS) and the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were used as validation cohorts. Risk factors were filtered using lasso regression, and predictive factors were determined using net reclassification improvement. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to establish the mortality risk prediction equations, and the model's fit was evaluated using a discrimination concordance index (C-index). To evaluate the internal consistency of discrimination and calibration, a 10x10 cross-validation technique was employed. Calibration plots were generated to compare predicted probabilities with observed probabilities. The prediction ability of the equations was demonstrated using nomogram. Results The CLHLS (mean age 88.08, n = 37074) recorded 28158 deaths (179683 person-years) throughout the course of an 8-20 year follow-up period. Additionally, there were 1384 deaths in the HABCS (mean age 86.74, n = 2552), and 1221 deaths in the CHARLS (mean age 72.48, n = 4794). The final all-cause mortality model incorporated demographic characteristics like age, sex, and current marital status, as well as functional status indicators including cognitive function and activities of daily living. Additionally, lifestyle factors like past smoking condition and leisure activities including housework, television viewing or radio listening, and gardening work were included. The C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.728 (95% CI: 0.724-0.732), while the external validation results for the CHARS and HABCS cohorts were 0.761 (95% CI: 0.749-0.773) and 0.713 (95% CI: 0.697-0.729), respectively. Conclusion This study introduces a reliable, validated, and acceptable mortality risk predictor for older adults in China. These predictive factors have potential applications in public health policy and clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Duan
- Department of Medical Record Statistics, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - MingXia Wang
- Department of Stomatology, Luohu Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, China
| | - Napoleon Bellua Sam
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana
| | - Qin Tian
- Scientific Research Center, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518107, China
| | - TingTing Zheng
- Department of Ultrasound, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen Key Laboratory for Drug Addiction and Medication Safety, Institute of Ultrasound Medicine, Shenzhen-PKU-HKUST Medical Center, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yun Chen
- Department of Ultrasound, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen Key Laboratory for Drug Addiction and Medication Safety, Institute of Ultrasound Medicine, Shenzhen-PKU-HKUST Medical Center, Shenzhen, China
| | - XiaoMei Deng
- Department of Comprehensive Ward, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yan Liu
- Department of Medical Record Statistics, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
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Qi J, He P, Yao H, Xue Y, Sun W, Lu P, Qi X, Zhang Z, Jing R, Cui B, Ning G. Developing a prediction model for all-cause mortality risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Shanghai, China. J Diabetes 2023; 15:27-35. [PMID: 36526273 PMCID: PMC9870741 DOI: 10.1111/1753-0407.13343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2022] [Revised: 10/23/2022] [Accepted: 11/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND All-cause mortality risk prediction models for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in mainland China have not been established. This study aimed to fill this gap. METHODS Based on the Shanghai Link Healthcare Database, patients diagnosed with T2DM and aged 40-99 years were identified between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016 and followed until December 31, 2021. All the patients were randomly allocated into training and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards models were used to develop the all-cause mortality risk prediction model. The model performance was evaluated by discrimination (Harrell C-index) and calibration (calibration plots). RESULTS A total of 399 784 patients with T2DM were eventually enrolled, with 68 318 deaths over a median follow-up of 6.93 years. The final prediction model included age, sex, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, moderate or severe kidney disease, moderate or severe liver disease, cancer, insulin use, glycosylated hemoglobin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The model showed good discrimination and calibration in the validation sets: the mean C-index value was 0.8113 (range 0.8110-0.8115) and the predicted risks closely matched the observed risks in the calibration plots. CONCLUSIONS This study constructed the first 5-year all-cause mortality risk prediction model for patients with T2DM in south China, with good predictive performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiying Qi
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic DiseasesShanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, State Key Laboratory of Medical GenomicsRuijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Ping He
- Link Healthcare Engineering and Information Department, Shanghai Hospital Development CenterShanghaiChina
| | - Huayan Yao
- Computer Net Center, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Yanbin Xue
- Computer Net Center, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Wen Sun
- Wonders Information Co. Ltd.ShanghaiChina
| | - Ping Lu
- Wonders Information Co. Ltd.ShanghaiChina
| | - Xiaohui Qi
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic DiseasesShanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, State Key Laboratory of Medical GenomicsRuijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Zizheng Zhang
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic DiseasesShanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, State Key Laboratory of Medical GenomicsRuijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Renjie Jing
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic DiseasesShanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, State Key Laboratory of Medical GenomicsRuijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Bin Cui
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic DiseasesShanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, State Key Laboratory of Medical GenomicsRuijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
| | - Guang Ning
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic DiseasesShanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, State Key Laboratory of Medical GenomicsRuijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
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Peng ZY, Yang CT, Ou HT, Kuo S. Cost-effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors among patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established cardiovascular diseases: A model-based simulation analysis using 10-year real-world data and targeted literature review. Diabetes Obes Metab 2022; 24:1328-1337. [PMID: 35373898 DOI: 10.1111/dom.14708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2021] [Revised: 03/11/2022] [Accepted: 03/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
AIM We conducted a model-based economic analysis of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4is) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with and without established cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), using 10-year real-world data. MATERIALS AND METHODS A Markov model was utilized to estimate healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over a 10-year simulation time horizon from a healthcare sector perspective, with both costs and QALYs discounted at 3% annually. Model inputs were derived from analyses of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database or published studies of Taiwanese populations. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Incorporated with our study findings, a targeted literature review was conducted to synthesize updated evidence on the cost-effectiveness of SGLT2is versus DPP4is. RESULTS Over 10 years, use of SGLT2is versus DPP4is yielded ICERs of $3244 and $4186 per QALY gained for patients with T2D, with and without established CVDs, respectively. Results were robust across a series of sensitivity and scenario analyses, showing ICERs between $-1074 (cost-saving) and $8467 per QALY gained for patients with T2D with established CVDs and between $369 and $37 122 per QALY gained for patients with T2D without established CVDs. CONCLUSIONS Use of SGLT2is versus DPP4is was highly cost-effective for patients with T2D regardless of their CVD history in real-world clinical practice. Our results extend current evidence by showing SGLT2is as an economically rational alternative over DPP4is for T2D treatment in routine care. Future research is warranted to explore the heterogeneous economic benefits of SGLT2is given diverse patient characteristics in clinical settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zi-Yang Peng
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Ting Yang
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Huang-Tz Ou
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Pharmacy, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Shihchen Kuo
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
- Division of Metabolism, Endocrinology & Diabetes, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
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Lin CC, Li CI, Liu CS, Lin CH, Yang SY, Li TC. Prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality using ankle-brachial index and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity in patients with type 2 diabetes. Sci Rep 2022; 12:11053. [PMID: 35773381 PMCID: PMC9247028 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-15346-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Ankle-brachial index (ABI) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) are used as non-invasive indicators for detecting atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness, two well-known predictors of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). ABI and baPWV have independent associations with mortality; however, their joint and interactive effects on mortality have not been assessed in patients with T2DM. This work aims to evaluate the independent, joint, and interactive associations of ABI and baPWV with all-cause and expanded cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in patients with T2DM. This observational study included 2160 patients with T2DM enlisted in the Diabetes Care Management Program database of China Medical University Hospital from 2001 to 2016 and then followed their death status until August 2021. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the independent, joint, and interactive effects of ABI and baPWV on the risk of all-cause and expanded CVD mortality. A total of 474 patient deaths occurred after a mean follow-up of 8.4 years, and 268 of which were attributed to cardiovascular events. Abnormal ABI (≤ 0.9) and highest baPWV quartile were independently associated with increased risks of all-cause [ABI: hazard ratio (HR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30–2.11; baPWV: 1.63, 1.16–2.27] and expanded CVD mortality (ABI: 2.21, 1.62–3.02; baPWV: 1.75, 1.09–2.83). The combination of abnormal ABI (≤ 0.9) and highest baPWV quartile was associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause (4.51, 2.50–8.11) and expanded CVD mortality (9.74, 4.21–22.51) compared with that of the combination of normal ABI and lowest baPWV quartile. Significant interactions were observed between ABI and baPWV in relation to all-cause and expand CVD mortality (both p for interaction < 0.001). Through their independent, joint, and interactive effects, ABI and baPWV are significant parameters that can improve the prediction of all-cause and expanded CVD mortality in patients with T2DM and help identify high-risk patients who may benefit from diabetes care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng-Chieh Lin
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C.,Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C.,Department of Family Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C
| | - Chia-Ing Li
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C.,Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C
| | - Chiu-Shong Liu
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C.,Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C.,Department of Family Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C
| | - Chih-Hsueh Lin
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C.,Department of Family Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C
| | - Shing-Yu Yang
- Department of Public Health, College of Public Health, China Medical University, No. 100, Sec. 1, Jingmao Rd., Beitun Dist., Taichung City, 406040, Taiwan R.O.C
| | - Tsai-Chung Li
- Department of Public Health, College of Public Health, China Medical University, No. 100, Sec. 1, Jingmao Rd., Beitun Dist., Taichung City, 406040, Taiwan R.O.C.. .,Department of Healthcare Administration, College of Medical and Health Science, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan R.O.C..
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Galbete A, Tamayo I, Librero J, Enguita-Germán M, Cambra K, Ibáñez-Beroiz B. Cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review of prediction models. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2022; 184:109089. [PMID: 34648890 DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2021.109089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Revised: 09/29/2021] [Accepted: 10/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
AIMS To identify all cardiovascular disease risk prediction models developed in patients with type 2 diabetes or in the general population with diabetes as a covariate updating previous studies, describing model performance and analysing both their risk of bias and their applicability METHODS: A systematic search for predictive models of cardiovascular risk was performed in PubMed. The CHARMS and PROBAST guidelines for data extraction and for the assessment of risk of bias and applicability were followed. Google Scholar citations of the selected articles were reviewed to identify studies that conducted external validations. RESULTS The titles of 10,556 references were extracted to ultimately identify 19 studies with models developed in a population with diabetes and 46 studies in the general population. Within models developed in a population with diabetes, only six were classified as having a low risk of bias, 17 had a favourable assessment of applicability, 11 reported complete model information, and also 11 were externally validated. CONCLUSIONS There exists an overabundance of cardiovascular risk prediction models applicable to patients with diabetes, but many have a high risk of bias due to methodological shortcomings and independent validations are scarce. We recommend following the existing guidelines to facilitate their applicability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arkaitz Galbete
- Navarrabiomed-Hospital Universitario de Navarra (HUN)-Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Pamplona, Spain; Departamento de Estadística, Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Pamplona, Spain; Red de Investigación en Servicios Sanitarios y Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Navarra (IdiSNA), IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Ibai Tamayo
- Navarrabiomed-Hospital Universitario de Navarra (HUN)-Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Pamplona, Spain; Red de Investigación en Servicios Sanitarios y Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Navarra (IdiSNA), IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Julián Librero
- Navarrabiomed-Hospital Universitario de Navarra (HUN)-Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Pamplona, Spain; Red de Investigación en Servicios Sanitarios y Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Navarra (IdiSNA), IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Mónica Enguita-Germán
- Navarrabiomed-Hospital Universitario de Navarra (HUN)-Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Pamplona, Spain; Red de Investigación en Servicios Sanitarios y Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Navarra (IdiSNA), IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Koldo Cambra
- Red de Investigación en Servicios Sanitarios y Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Dirección de Salud Pública y Adicciones, Departamento de Sanidad, Gobierno Vasco, Vitoria, Spain
| | - Berta Ibáñez-Beroiz
- Navarrabiomed-Hospital Universitario de Navarra (HUN)-Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Pamplona, Spain; Red de Investigación en Servicios Sanitarios y Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Bilbao, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Navarra (IdiSNA), IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain; Departamento de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Pública de Navarra (UPNA), Pamplona, Spain.
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