External validation and clinical evaluation of the International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis) in a large cohort of Chinese patients

Thrombotic Prediction Model Based on Epigenetic Regulator Mutations in Essential Thrombocythemia Patients Using Survival Analysis in Recurrent Events

INTRODUCTION

Essential thrombocythemia (ET) involves the proliferation of megakaryocytes and platelets and is associated with an increased risk of thrombosis. We aimed to evaluate thrombotic risks in patients with epigenetic regulator mutations and generate a model to predict thrombosis in ET.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cohort study enrolled patients aged > 15 years diagnosed with ET at the Songklanakarind Hospital between January 2002 and December 2019. Twenty-five targeted gene mutations, including somatic driver mutations (JAK2, CALR, MPL), epigenetic regulator mutations (TET2, DNMT3A, IDH1, IDH2, TET2, ASXL1, EZH2, SF3B1, SRSF2) and other genes relevant to myeloid neoplasms, were identified using next-generation sequencing. Thrombotic events were confirmed based on clinical condition and imaging findings, and thrombotic risks were analyzed using five survival models with the recurrent event method.

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients were enrolled with a median follow-up of 6.91 years. Of these, 15 patients experienced 17 arterial thrombotic events in total. Patients with JAK2 mutation and IDH1 mutation had the highest frequency of thrombotic events with somatic driver mutations (17.3%) and epigenetic regulator mutations (100%). The 10-year thrombosis-free survival rate was 81.3% (95% confidence interval: 72.0-91.8%). IDH1 mutation was a significant factor for thrombotic risk in the multivariate analysis for all models. The Prentice, William, and Peterson (PWP) gap-time model was the most appropriate prediction model.

CONCLUSIONS

The PWP gap-time model was a good predictive model for thrombotic risk in patients with ET. IDH1 mutation was significant risk factors for thrombosis; however, further studies with a larger sample size should confirm this and provide more insight.

Clinical features and current treatment status of essential thrombocythemia in older adults: a multicenter real-world study in China

Approximately half of patients diagnosed with essential thrombocythemia (ET) are older adults (aged ≥ 60 years), but to date, little is known about the clinical and molecular characteristics of older patients diagnosed according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria. We retrospectively collected clinical and molecular data from 282 older (≥ 60 years) and 621 younger ET patients (18-59 years) in China from March 1, 2012 to November 1, 2021 and summarized the clinical characteristics and treatment of these older ET patients. Compared to younger patients, older patients had a higher incidence of the JAK2V617F mutation (P = 0.001), a lower incidence of CALR mutations (P = 0.033) and a higher rate of epigenetic mutations (P < 0.001), TP53 mutations (P = 0.005), and RNA splicing mutations (P < 0.001). Older patients had not only a higher incidence of thrombosis but also a higher incidence of bleeding events. Furthermore, older patients had a significantly higher mortality rate after disease progression (P = 0.050) or after thrombotic events (P = 0.013). Risk factors for thrombosis or prognosis were significantly different between older patients and the entire ET cohort. In older patients, non-driver mutations contributed significantly to thrombotic complications and a poor prognosis, while the JAK2V617F mutation was a risk factor for overall survival but not for thrombotic events. The application of interferon in older ET patients was not inferior to that of hydroxyurea in terms of efficacy and safety. Older patients presented unique characteristics different from those of younger patients, which could provide new information for formulating more appropriate treatment and follow-up strategies.

Reevaluation of cardiovascular risk factors for thrombotic events in 580 Japanese patients with essential thrombocythemia

Risk-adapted therapy is recommended to prevent thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia (ET) patients. An advanced age, a history of thrombosis, and the presence of the JAK2V617F mutation are well-defined risk factors for thrombosis in ET; however, the impact of cardiovascular risk (CVR) factors on thrombosis in ET remains elusive. Therefore, we herein investigated the impact of CVR factors on thrombosis in 580 ET patients who met the 2017 World Health Organization Classification diagnostic criteria. A univariate analysis identified hypertriglyceridemia and multiple CVR factors as strong risk factors for thrombosis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.530, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.630-7.643, P = 0.001 and HR 3.368, 95% CI 1.284-8.833, P = 0.014, respectively) and hyper-LDL cholesterolemia as a potential risk factor (HR 2.191, 95% CI 0.966-4.971, P = 0.061). A multivariate analysis revealed that hypertriglyceridemia was an independent risk factor for thrombosis (HR 3.364, 95% CI 1.541-7.346, P = 0.002). Furthermore, poor thrombosis-free survival was observed in patients with a serum triglyceride level ≥ 1.2 mmol/L (HR = 2.592, P = 0.026 vs. < 1.2 mmol/L) or two or more CVR factors (P = 0.011 vs. no CVR factors and P = 0.005 vs. one CVR factor). These results revealed the impact of CVR factors on thrombosis in ET. Since CVR factors are manageable, lifestyle interventions, such as the control of serum triglyceride levels, may effectively prevent thrombosis in ET patients.

Risk of thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia according to three prediction models: an external validation study

BACKGROUND

Thrombosis is a major complication of essential thrombocythemia (ET). There are three well-known prediction models for thrombotic risk in ET patients. However, only few external validation studies for the performance of these models in Asian populations have been conducted. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the performance of these models for predicting the risk of thrombosis in Thai patients with ET.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated the clinical characteristics and thrombotic risk of 149 Thai ET patients in a university hospital in Southern Thailand between 2002 and 2019. Thrombotic risk variables were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression. The Brier score, calibration plot, and Harrel concordance index (C-index) were used to evaluate the performance of the three models.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 5.2 years, there were a total of 28 thrombotic events in 26 patients. Age > 60 years was a significant prognostic factor for thrombosis in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. The Brier scores were 0.251, 0.273, and 0.276 in the conventional, IPSET-thrombosis, and revised IPSET-thrombosis models, respectively. The conventional model had optimal calibration and good discrimination (C-index, 0.67; 95%CI:0.55-0.79). The IPSET thrombosis (C-index 0.33; 95%CI:0.20-0.49) and revised IPSET thrombosis (C-index 0.31; 95%CI:0.18-0.44) models showed poor discrimination.

CONCLUSION

The conventional model, which is based on age and history of thrombosis, is the best model to predict thrombotic risk in Thai ET patients. Further studies with a larger number of patients with thrombotic events are needed to validate the IPSET-thrombosis and revised IPSET-thrombosis models.

The Epidemiology of Myeloproliferative Neoplasms in New Zealand between 2010 and 2017: Insights from the New Zealand Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of data on ethnic disparities in patients with the classical Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs): polycythaemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythaemia (ET) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF).

METHODS

This study analysed the demographic data for PV, ET and PMF collected by the New Zealand Cancer Registry (NZCR) between 2010 and 2017.

RESULTS

We found that the NZCR capture rates were lower than average international incidence rates for PV and ET, but higher for PMF (0.76, 0.99 and 0.82 per 100,000, respectively). PV patients were older and had worse outcomes than expected, which suggests these patients were reported to the registry at an advanced stage of their disease. Polynesian patients with all MPN subtypes, PV, ET and PMF, were younger than their European counterparts both at the time of diagnosis and death (p < 0.001). Male gender was an independent risk factor for mortality from PV and PMF (hazard ratios (HR) of 1.43 and 1.81, respectively; p < 0.05), and Māori ethnicity was an independent risk factor for mortality from PMF (HR: 2.94; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

New Zealand Polynesian patients may have increased genetic predisposition to MPN, thus we advocate for modern genetic testing in this ethnic group to identify the cause. Further work is also required to identify modifiable risk factors for mortality in MPN, in particular those associated with male gender and Māori ethnicity; the results may benefit all patients with MPN.

Correlation Between PAI-1 Gene 4G/5G Polymorphism and the Risk of Thrombosis in Ph Chromosome-Negative Myeloproliferative Neoplasms

Thrombosis has been recognized as one of the most significant risk factors of high mortality and disability in patients with Philadelphia (Ph) chromosome negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). However, the risk factors of thrombotic events in these patients have not been completely understood. In this study, the clinical data of 58 patients with Ph-MPNs were obtained and analyzed, including 34 cases of essential thrombocytopenia (ET), 23 thrombotic events happened in 21 (36%) patients, among which 60% (14 of 23) with cerebral infarction, 17% (4 of 23) with coronary heart disease and 23% (5 of 23) with venous thrombosis. There were no significant differences in age, sex, and blood cell count between polycythemia vera (PV) and ET patients who have experienced thrombotic events and those who have not. In ET patients, the incidence of thrombotic events in plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) genotype 4G4G was significantly higher than that in genotype 4G5G and genotype 5G5G (P < .05). The incidence of thrombotic events in PV and ET patients with infection was higher than those without infection (P < .05). Using logistic regression analysis, we found that PAI-1 genotype 4G4G and infection were associated with thrombotic events (odds ratio 6.744, 95% CI: 1.195-38.056 and 15.641 95% CI: 3.327-73.522). The 4G/4G polymorphism of PAI-1 gene and infection are independent risk factors of thrombotic events in patients with Ph-MPNs. PAI-1 gene 4G4G and infection in ET and PV patients with Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) V617F mutation were shown to be high risk of thrombotic events. Therefore, clinical doctors should put more attention on PAI-1 genotype 4G4G and infection in JAK2 V617F mutated patients with Ph-MPNs to prevent the thrombosis.

Validation of the IPSET score for thrombosis in patients with prefibrotic myelofibrosis

Pre-fibrotic myelofibrosis (pre-PMF) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) are characterized by similarly increased rate of thrombotic events, but no study specifically analyzed risk factors for thrombosis in pre-PMF. In a multicenter cohort of 382 pre-PMF patients collected in this study, the rate of arterial and venous thrombosis after diagnosis was 1.0 and 0.95% patients/year. Factors significantly associated with arterial thrombosis were age, leukocytosis, generic cardiovascular risk factors, JAK2V617F and high molecular risk mutations, while only history of previous thrombosis, particularly prior venous thrombosis, was predictive of venous events. The risk of total thromboses was accurately predicted by the the international prognostic score for thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia (IPSET) score, originally developed for ET, and corresponded to 0.67, 2.05, and 2.95% patients/year in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories. IPSET was superior to both the conventional 2-tiered score and the revised IPSET in this cohort of pre-PMF patients. We conclude that IPSET score can be conveniently used for thrombosis risk stratification in patients with pre-PMF and might represent the basis for individualized management aimed at reducing the increased risk of major cardiovascular events. Further refinement of the IPSET score in pre-PMF might be pursued by additional, prospective studies evaluating the inclusion of leukocytosis and/or adverse mutational profile as novel variables.

Assessing the thrombotic risk of patients with essential thrombocythemia in the genomic era

The molecular characterization of myeloproliferative neoplasms, including essential thrombocythemia (ET), has enabled deeper understanding of their pathogenesis. A driver lesion, namely, Janus kinase (JAK)2V617F, calreticulin (CALR) or myeloproliferative leukemia (MPL) gene mutation can be identified in the vast majority of patients. Each of these mutations is associated with distinct clinical features and may modulate the patients' clinical course, risk of complications, including vascular events, and survival. JAK2V617F appears to be a risk-modifying mutation and has been shown to increase the likelihood of thrombotic events in patients with ET across studies. As such, it has been included in prognostic models and its presence may influence treatment decisions. The association of CALR and MPL mutations with the incidence of vascular events has been less clear. Even more limited information is available on the contribution of additional non-driver lesions to the thrombotic risk. In this review we discuss the available evidence on the role of recurrent mutations in the risk of thrombotic complications in patients with ET and how these mutations weigh into modern prognostic scores.

[Clinical evaluation of the revised International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for essential thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis) in a cohort of 746 Chinese adult patients]

Objective: To evaluate the role of the revised International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis (IPSET-thrombosis) in predicting the occurrence of thrombotic events in Chinese patients with essential thrombocythemia (ET) and to develop a thrombosis predicting model more applicable to Chinese ET patients. Methods: Medical records of 746 adult patients with an initial diagnosis of ET were retrospectively analyzed. Results: The median age at diagnosis was 52 (18-87) years, with 305 males and 441 females. According to the revised IPSET-thrombosis model, the number of very low-, low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients were 271 (36.3%) , 223 (29.9%) , 63 (8.4%) and 189 (25.3%) , respectively. The four groups exhibited significantly different thrombosis-free survival (χ(2)=72.301, P<0.001) . Thirty-six patients were reclassified as intermediate-risk according to the revised IPSET-thrombosis instead of low-risk as per the original IPSET-thrombosis. Nineteen intermediate-risk patients as per the original IPSET-thrombosis were upgraded to high-risk according to the revised IPSET-thrombosis. Fifty-one high-risk patients as per the original IPSET-thrombosis were reclassified as low-risk in the revised IPSET-thrombosis. It suggests that the revised IPSET-thrombosis potentially avoids over- or under-treatment. In low-risk patients as per the revised IPSET-thrombosis, the rate of thrombosis in patients with cardiovascular risk factors (CVF) was higher than that in those without (16.3% vs 5.2%, χ(2)=5.264, P=0.022) , and comparable with intermediate-risk patients as per the revised IPSET-thrombosis (16.3% vs 14.3%, χ(2)=0.089, P=0.765) . As a result, a new revised IPSET-thrombosis model more applicable to Chinese ET patients was developed in which patients with CVF in the low-risk group as per the revised IPSET-thrombosis were reclassified as intermediate-risk group. Conclusion: For predicting the occurrence of thrombotic events, the revised IPSET-thrombosis model was better than the original IPSET-thrombosis model. The revised IPSET-thrombosis was optimized and a new revised IPSET-thrombosis model more applicable to Chinese ET patients was developed, and the new evidence for risk stratification and treatment of ET in Chinese was provided.

Real world epidemiology of myeloproliferative neoplasms: a population based study in Korea 2004-2013

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), with an expected increment in number, impose substantial economic and social burdens. To this end, we conducted a nationwide population-based descriptive epidemiology study. We also investigated medical cost associated with MPNs. Prevalence was the highest for essential thrombocythemia (ET) (range 4.1-9.0 per 100,000), followed by polycythemia vera (PV) (range 2.8-5.4 per 100,000) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF) (range 0.5-0.9 per 100,000). ET incurred the highest cumulative total cost at US$35 million and the most frequent hospital visits, while PMF incurred the highest average cost per person at US$5000. The mean hemoglobin level was 16.9 ± 2.2 g/dL for PV males and 15.5 ± 2.7 g/dL for PV females. Further analyses on hemoglobin levels showed the true positive rate of PV from the significantly elevated hemoglobin group (defined as >18.5 g/dL for men and >16.5 g/dL for women) was 3.01% and that of MPNs was 3.1%. Here, we provide the biggest population-based report on MPN epidemiology that can readily be used as a representative Asian data.

Application of prognostic score IPSET-thrombosis in patients with essential thrombocythemia of a Brazilian public service

Summary Introduction: In patients with essential thrombocythemia (ET), the vascular complications contribute to morbidity and mortality. To better predict the occurrence of thrombotic events, an International Prognostic Score for Thrombosis in Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis) has recently been proposed. We present the application of this score and compare its results with the usual classification system. Method: We retrospectively evaluated the characteristics and risk factors for thrombosis of 46 patients with a diagnosis of ET seen in the last 6 years at Faculdade de Medicina do ABC (FMABC). Results: Thrombosis in the arterial territory was more prevalent than in venous sites. We observed that cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and smoking) were also risk factors for thrombosis (p<0.001). Age over 60 years and presence of JAK2 V617F mutation were not associated with the occurrence of thrombotic events. No patient classified by IPSET-thrombosis as low risk had a thrombotic event. Furthermore, using the IPSET-thrombosis scale, we identified two patients who had thrombotic events during follow-up and were otherwise classified in the low-risk group of the traditional classification. Leukocytosis at diagnosis was significantly associated with arterial thrombosis (p=0.02), while splenomegaly was associated with venous thrombotic events (p=0.01). Conclusion: Cardiovascular risk factors and leukocytosis were directly associated with arterial thrombosis. IPSET-thrombosis appears to be better than the traditional classification at identifying lower risk patients who do not need specific therapy.

Validation of the revised International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis) in 585 Mayo Clinic patients

The primary objective of treatment in essential thrombocythemia (ET) is to prevent thromboembolic complications. In this regard, advanced age and thrombosis history have long distinguished "low" from "high" risk patients. More recently, JAK2V617F and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors were identified as additional modifiers, leading to the development of a 3-tiered International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for ET (IPSET-thrombosis): "low," "intermediate," and "high". The international data set used to develop IPSET-thrombosis was recently re-analyzed in order to quantify the additional pro-thrombotic effect of JAK2V617F and CV risk factors in specific risk subcategories. The revised IPSET-thrombosis identified four risk categories based on three adverse variables (thrombosis history, age >60 years and JAK2V617F): very low (no adverse features), low (presence of JAK2V617F), intermediate (age >60 years) and high (presence of thrombosis history or presence of both advanced age and JAK2V617F). In this study of 585 patients with ET (median age 68 years; 61% female), we validated the revised IPSET-thrombosis by confirming significant differences in thrombosis risk between "very low" and "low" (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.3) and between "intermediate" and "high" (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.2) risk patients. Furthermore, in multivariable analysis, only JAK2V617F (HR=1.8, CI= 1.07 - 2.94) and history of thrombosis (HR=2.1, CI= 1.20 - 3.58) were independently predictive of future thrombotic events. The revised IPSET-thrombosis needs confirmation in prospective studies, especially in terms of risk-adapted therapy that includes the need for aspirin therapy in very low risk, twice-daily aspirin therapy for low risk and cytoreductive therapy for low or intermediate risk patients.

[Thrombotic events and significance of the IPSET thrombosis risk evaluation score in essential thrombocythaemia]

INTRODUCTION

Thrombo-haemorrhagic complications contribute to both morbidity and mortality in patients with essential thrombocythaemia.

AIM

The aim of the authors was to estimate the incidence of thrombotic events and to examine the clinical utility of IPSET thrombosis risk evaluation score against conventional two-categorical (low and high) risk assessment.

METHOD

A retrospective analysis was carried out on 155 patients with essential thrombocythaemia (106 females; median age, 61 years) in a period between 1999 and 2014.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed 55 (35.5%) major thrombotic events before and 25 (16.1%) major thrombotic complications after establishment of the haematologic diagnosis. Significant differences were observed in thrombosis-free survival between the different IPSET groups (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The IPSET model was first examined in this cohort of patients with essential thrombocythaemia diagnosed in a single Hungarian haematologic centre. The results suggest that this score may provide more information than the conventional thrombosis risk assessment.

The JAK2 V617F mutational status and allele burden may be related with the risk of venous thromboembolic events in patients with Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms

INTRODUCTION

Patients with Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (Ph(-) MPNs) are at increased risk of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between JAK2 V617F mutational status, JAK2 V617F allele burden and the risk of vascular complications occurrence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Analysis was performed in a cohort of 186 patients diagnosed with polycythemia vera (53), essential thrombocythemia (114), primary myelofibrosis (11), and unclassified MPN (8). The risk of vascular complications development was analyzed in 126 JAK2 V617F-positive patients with respect to allele burden assessed with allele-specific 'real-time' quantitative polymerase chain reaction (AS RQ-PCR).

RESULTS

Overall prevalence of any vascular complications was 44.6%. Arterial thrombosis occurred in 20.4%, venous thromboembolism (VTE) in 11.3%, bleeding episodes in 24.7% of patients. Individuals harboring JAK2 V617F mutation, regardless of MPN type, were at higher risk of VTE (OR=5.15, 95%CI: 1.16-22.90, P=0.024), mainly deep vein thrombosis (DVT). JAK2 allele burden higher than 20% identified patients with 7.4-fold increased risk of VTE (95%CI: 1.6-33.7, P=0.004), but not of arterial thrombosis, neither of bleeding complications, and remained the only significant VTE risk factor in multivariate logistic regression. High allele burdens (over 50%) were strikingly associated with proximal DVT cases, but not with distal DVT.

CONCLUSIONS

The group of MPN patients with JAK2 V617F allele burden higher than 20% may benefit the most from vigilant monitoring and appropriate prophylaxis against vascular events. Inclusion of JAK2 V617F mutant allele burden in new risk stratifications seems to be justified and requires controlled prospective trials.