Deconstructing environmental predictability: seasonality, environmental colour and the biogeography of marine life histories

Intergenerational effects of ocean temperature variation: Early life benefits are short-lived in threespine stickleback

Current climate change models predict an increase in temperature variability and extreme events such as heatwaves, and organisms need to cope with consequent changes to environmental variation. Non-genetic inheritance mechanisms can enable parental generations to prime their offspring's abilities to acclimate to environmental change-but they may also be deleterious. When parents are exposed to predictable environments, intergenerational plasticity can lead to better offspring trait performance in matching environments. Alternatively, parents exposed to variable or unpredictable environments may use plastic bet-hedging strategies to adjust the phenotypic variance among offspring. Here, we used a model species, the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), to test whether putatively adaptive intergenerational effects can occur in response to shifts in environmental variation as well as to shifts in environmental mean, and whether parents employ plastic bet-hedging strategies in response to increasing environmental variation. We used a full-factorial, split-clutch experiment with parents and offspring exposed to three temperature regimes: constant, natural variation, and increased variation. We show that within-generation exposure to increased temperature variation reduces growth of offspring, but having parents that were exposed to natural temperature variation during gametogenesis may offset some early-life negative growth effects. However, these mitigating intergenerational effects do not appear to persist later in life. We found no indication that stickleback mothers plastically altered offspring phenotypic variance (egg size or clutch size) in response to temperature variation. However, lower inter-individual variance of juvenile fish morphology in offspring of increased variation parents may imply the presence of conservative bet-hedging strategies in natural populations. Overall, in our experiment, parental exposure to temperature variation had limited effects on offspring fitness-related traits. Natural levels of environmental variation promoted a potentially adaptive intergenerational response in early life development, but under more challenging conditions associated with increased environmental variation, the effect was lost.

Temporal variability of sea surface temperature affects marine macrophytes range retractions as well as gradual warming

Record mean sea surface temperatures (SST) during the past decades and marine heatwaves have been identified as responsible for severe impacts on marine ecosystems, but the role of changes in the patterns of temporal variability under global warming has been much less studied. We compare descriptors of two time series of SST, encompassing extirpations (i.e. local extinctions) of six cold-temperate macroalgae species at their trailing range edge. We decompose the effects of gradual warming, extreme events and intrinsic variability (e.g. seasonality). We also relate the main factors determining macroalgae range shifts with their life cycles characteristics and thermal tolerance. We found extirpations of macroalgae were related to stretches of coast where autumn SST underwent warming, increased temperature seasonality, and decreased skewness over time. Regardless of the species, the persisting populations shared a common environmental domain, which was clearly differentiated from those experiencing local extinction. However, macroalgae species responded to temperature components in different ways, showing dissimilar resilience. Consideration of multiple thermal manifestations of climate change is needed to better understand local extinctions of habitat-forming species. Our study provides a framework for the incorporation of unused measures of environmental variability while analyzing the distributions of coastal species.

Macroalgal microbiome biogeography is shaped by environmental drivers rather than geographical distance

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Contrasting patterns of host and microbiome biogeography can provide insight into the drivers of microbial community assembly. Distance-decay relationships are a classic biogeographical pattern shaped by interactions between selective and non-selective processes. Joint biogeography of microbiomes and their hosts is of increasing interest owing to the potential for microbiome-facilitated adaptation.

METHODS

In this study, we examine the coupled biogeography of the model macroalga Durvillaea and its microbiome using a combination of genotyping by sequencing (host) and 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing (microbiome). Alongside these approaches, we use environmental data to characterize the relationship between the microbiome, the host, and the environment.

KEY RESULTS

We show that although the host and microbiome exhibit shared biogeographical structure, these arise from different processes, with host biogeography showing classic signs of geographical distance decay, but with the microbiome showing environmental distance decay. Examination of microbial subcommunities, defined by abundance, revealed that the abundance of microbes is linked to environmental selection. As microbes become less common, the dominant ecological processes shift away from selective processes and towards neutral processes. Contrary to expectations, we found that ecological drift does not promote structuring of the microbiome.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that although host macroalgae exhibit a relatively 'typical' biogeographical pattern of declining similarity with increasing geographical distance, the microbiome is more variable and is shaped primarily by environmental conditions. Our findings suggest that the Baas Becking hypothesis of 'everything is everywhere, the environment selects' might be a useful hypothesis to understand the biogeography of macroalgal microbiomes. As environmental conditions change in response to anthropogenic influences, the processes structuring the microbiome of macroalgae might shift, whereas those governing the host biogeography are less likely to change. As a result, increasingly decoupled host-microbe biogeography might be observed in response to such human influences.

Disturbance of primary producer communities disrupts the thermal limits of the associated aquatic fauna

Environmental fluctuation forms a framework of variability within which species have evolved. Environmental fluctuation includes predictability, such as diel cycles of aquatic oxygen fluctuation driven by primary producers. Oxygen availability and fluctuation shape the physiological responses of aquatic animals to warming, so that, in theory, oxygen fluctuation could influence their thermal ecology. We describe annual oxygen variability in agricultural drainage channels and show that disruption of oxygen fluctuation through dredging of plants reduces the thermal tolerance of freshwater animals. We compared the temperature responses of snails, amphipods, leeches and mussels exposed to either natural oxygen fluctuation or constant oxygen in situ under different acclimation periods. Oxygen saturation in channel water ranged from c. 0 % saturation at night to >300 % during the day. Temperature showed normal seasonal variation and was almost synchronous with daily oxygen fluctuation. A dredging event in 2020 dramatically reduced dissolved oxygen variability and the correlation between oxygen and temperature was lost. The tolerance of invertebrates to thermal stress was significantly lower when natural fluctuation in oxygen availability was reduced and decoupled from temperature. This highlights the importance of natural cycles of variability and the need to include finer scale effects, including indirect biological effects, in modelling the ecosystem-level consequences of climate change. Furthermore, restoration and management of primary producers in aquatic habitats could be important to improve the thermal protection of aquatic invertebrates and their resistance to environmental variation imposed by climate change.

Exploring links between climatic predictability and the evolution of within- and transgenerational plasticity

In variable environments, phenotypic plasticity can increase fitness by providing tight environment-phenotype matching. However, adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve only when the future selective environment can be predicted based on the prevailing conditions. That is, the juvenile environment should be predictive of the adult environment (within-generation plasticity) or the parental environment should be predictive of the offspring environment (transgenerational plasticity). Moreover, the environmental predictability can also shape transient responses such as stress response in an adaptive direction. Here, we test links between environmental predictability and the evolution of adaptive plasticity by combining time series analyses and a common garden experiment using temperature as a stressor in a temperate butterfly (Melitaea cinxia). Time series analyses revealed that across season fluctuations in temperature over 48 years are overall predictable. However, within the growing season, temperature fluctuations showed high heterogeneity across years with low autocorrelations and the timing of temperature peaks were asynchronous. Most life-history traits showed strong within-generation plasticity for temperature and traits such as body size and growth rate broke the temperature-size rule. Evidence for transgenerational plasticity, however, was weak and detected for only two traits each in an adaptive and non-adaptive direction. We suggest that the low predictability of temperature fluctuations within the growing season likely disfavors the evolution of adaptive transgenerational plasticity but instead favors strong within-generation plasticity.

DNA metabarcoding suggests adaptive seasonal variation of individual trophic traits in a critically endangered fish

Dietary studies are critical for understanding foraging strategies and have important applications in conservation and habitat management. We applied a robust metabarcoding protocol to characterize the diet of the critically endangered freshwater fish Zingel asper (the Rhone streber). We conducted modelling and simulation analyses to identify and characterize some of the drivers of individual trophic trait variation in this species. We found that population density and ontogeny had minor effects on the trophic niche of Z. asper. Instead, our results suggest that the majority of trophic niche variation was driven by seasonal variation in ecological opportunity. The total trophic niche width of Z. asper seasonally expanded to include a broader range of prey. Furthermore, null model simulations revealed that the increase of between-individual variation in autumn indicates that Z. asper become more opportunistic relative to summer and spring, rather than being associated with a seasonal specialization of individuals. Overall, our results suggest an adaptive variation of individual trophic traits in Z. asper: the species mainly consumes a few ephemeropteran taxa (Baetis fuscatus and Ecdyonurus) but seems to be capable of adapting its foraging strategy to maintain its body condition. This study illustrates how metabarcoding data obtained from faeces can be validated and combined with individual-based modelling and simulation approaches to explore inter- and intrapopulational individual trophic traits variation and to test hypotheses in the conventional analytic framework of trophic ecology.

Environmental optima for an ecosystem engineer: a multidisciplinary trait-based approach

A complex interplay of biotic and abiotic factors underpins the distribution of species and operates across different levels of biological organization and life history stages. Understanding ecosystem engineer reproductive traits is critical for comprehending and managing the biodiversity-rich habitats they create. Little is known about how the reproduction of the reef-forming worm, Sabellaria alveolata, varies across environmental gradients. By integrating broad-scale environmental data with in-situ physiological data in the form of biochemical traits, we identified and ranked the drivers of intraspecific reproductive trait variability (ITV). ITV was highest in locations with variable environmental conditions, subjected to fluctuating temperature and hydrodynamic conditions. Our trait selection pointed to poleward sites being the most physiologically stressful, with low numbers of irregularly shaped eggs suggesting potentially reduced reproductive success. Centre-range individuals allocated the most energy to reproduction, with the highest number of intermediate-sized eggs, whilst equatorward sites were the least physiologically stressful, thus confirming the warm-adapted nature of our model organism. Variation in total egg diameter and relative fecundity were influenced by a combination of environmental conditions, which changed depending on the trait and sampling period. An integrated approach involving biochemical and reproductive traits is essential for understanding macro-scale patterns in the face of anthropogenic-induced climate change across environmental and latitudinal gradients.

Limited plasticity in thermally tolerant ectotherm populations: evidence for a trade-off

Many species face extinction risks owing to climate change, and there is an urgent need to identify which species' populations will be most vulnerable. Plasticity in heat tolerance, which includes acclimation or hardening, occurs when prior exposure to a warmer temperature changes an organism's upper thermal limit. The capacity for thermal acclimation could provide protection against warming, but prior work has found few generalizable patterns to explain variation in this trait. Here, we report the results of, to our knowledge, the first meta-analysis to examine within-species variation in thermal plasticity, using results from 20 studies (19 species) that quantified thermal acclimation capacities across 78 populations. We used meta-regression to evaluate two leading hypotheses. The climate variability hypothesis predicts that populations from more thermally variable habitats will have greater plasticity, while the trade-off hypothesis predicts that populations with the lowest heat tolerance will have the greatest plasticity. Our analysis indicates strong support for the trade-off hypothesis because populations with greater thermal tolerance had reduced plasticity. These results advance our understanding of variation in populations' susceptibility to climate change and imply that populations with the highest thermal tolerance may have limited phenotypic plasticity to adjust to ongoing climate warming.

Is There More to Within-plant Variation in Seed Size than Developmental Noise?

Within-plant variation in seed size may merely reflect developmental instability, or it may be adaptive in facilitating diversifying bet-hedging, that is, production of phenotypically diverse offspring when future environments are unpredictable. To test the latter hypothesis, we analyzed patterns of variation in seed size in 11 populations of the perennial vine Dalechampia scandens grown in a common greenhouse environment. We tested whether population differences in the mean and variation of seed size covaried with environmental predictability at two different timescales. We also tested whether within-plant variation in seed size was correlated with independent measures of floral developmental instability and increased under stressful conditions. Populations differed genetically in the amount of seed-size variation occurring among plants, among infructescences within plants, and among seeds within infructescences. Within-individual variation was not detectably correlated with measures of developmental instability and did not increase under stress, but it increased weakly with short-term environmental unpredictability of precipitation at the source-population site. These results support the hypothesis that greater variation in seed size is adaptive when environmental predictability is low.

Maternal effects and the outcome of interspecific competition

Maternal environmental effects create lagged population responses to past environments. Although they are ubiquitous and vary in expression across taxa, it remains unclear if and how their presence alters competitive interactions in ecological communities.Here, we use a discrete-time competition model to simulate how maternal effects alter competitive dynamics in fluctuating and constant environments. Further, we explore how omitting maternal effects alter estimates of known model parameters from observational time series data.Our simulations demonstrate that (i) maternal effects change competitive outcomes, regardless of whether competitors otherwise interact neutrally or exhibit non-neutral competitive differences, (ii) the consequences of maternal effects for competitive outcomes are mediated by the temporal structure of environmental variation, (iii) even in constant conditions, competitive outcomes are influenced by species' maternal effects strategies, and (iv) in observational time series data, omitting maternal effects reduces variation explained by models and biases parameter estimates, including competition coefficients.Our findings demonstrate that the ecological consequences of maternal effects hinge on the competitive environment. Evolutionary biologists have long recognized that maternal effects can be an important but often overlooked strategy buffering populations from environmental change. We suggest that maternal effects are similarly critical to ecology and call for research into maternal effects as drivers of dynamics in populations and communities.

Effects of intrinsic environmental predictability on intra-individual and intra-population variability of plant reproductive traits and eco-evolutionary consequences

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is widely accepted that changes in the environment affect mean trait expression, but little is known about how the environment shapes intra-individual and intra-population variance. Theory suggests that intra-individual variance might be plastic and under natural selection, rather than reflecting developmental noise, but evidence for this hypothesis is scarce. Here, we experimentally tested whether differences in intrinsic environmental predictability affect intra-individual and intra-population variability of different reproductive traits, and whether intra-individual variability is under selection.

METHODS

Under field conditions, we subjected Onobrychis viciifolia to more and less predictable precipitation over 4 generations and 4 years. We analysed effects on the coefficient of intra-individual variation (CVi-i) and the coefficient of intra-population variation (CVi-p), assessed whether the coefficients of intra-individual variation (CsVi-i) are under natural selection and tested for transgenerational responses (ancestor environmental effects on offspring).

KEY RESULTS

Less predictable precipitation led to higher CsVi-i and CsVi-p, consistent with plastic responses. The CsVi-i of all studied traits were under consistent stabilizing selection, and precipitation predictability affected the strength of selection and the location of the optimal CVi-i of a single trait. All CsVi-i differed from the optimal CVi-i and the maternal and offspring CsVi-i were positively correlated, showing that there was scope for change. Nevertheless, no consistent transgenerational effects were found in any of the three descendant generations, which contrasts with recent studies that detected rapid transgenerational responses in the trait means of different plant species. This suggests that changes in intra-individual variability take longer to evolve than changes in trait means, which may explain why high intra-individual variability is maintained, despite the stabilizing selection.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that plastic changes of intra-individual variability are an important determinant of whether plants will be able to cope with changes in environmental predictability induced by the currently observed climatic change.

Functional sustainability of nutrient accumulation by periphytic biofilm under temperature fluctuations

Temperature can fluctuate widely between different seasons, and this may greatly impact many biological processes. However, little is known about its influence on the functioning of benthic microbial communities. Here we investigated the nutrient accumulation capability of periphytic biofilm under temperature fluctuations (17-35°C). Periphytic biofilm maintained the same nutrient accumulation capacity after experiencing the 'warming-hot-cooling' temperature fluctuation under both lab and outdoor conditions as those without temperature disturbance. In response to temperature increase, both community composition and species richness changed greatly and the increase in biodiversity was identified as being the underlying mechanism boosting the sustainable function in nutrient accumulation, indicating zero net effects of community changes. These findings provide insights into the underlying mechanisms of how benthic microbial communities adapt to temperature fluctuations to maintain nutrient accumulation capacity and elucidate that periphytic biofilm plays important roles in influencing nutrient cycling in aquatic ecosystems under temperature changes such as seasonal fluctuations.

Projecting marine developmental diversity and connectivity in future oceans

Global change will alter the distribution of organisms around the planet. While many studies have explored how different species, groups and traits might be re-arranged, few have explored how dispersal is likely to change under future conditions. Dispersal drives ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations, determining resilience, persistence and spread. In marine systems, dispersal shows clear biogeographical patterns and is extremely dependent on temperature, so simple projections can be made regarding how dispersal potentials are likely to change owing to global warming under future thermal regimes. We use two proxies for dispersal-developmental mode and developmental duration. Species with a larval phase are more dispersive than those that lack a larval phase, and species that spend longer developing in the plankton are more dispersive than those that spend less time in the plankton. Here, we explore how the distribution of different development modes is likely to change based on current distributions. Next, we estimate how the temperature-dependence of development itself depends on the temperature in which the species lives, and use this estimate to project how developmental durations are likely to change in the future. We find that species with feeding larvae are likely to become more prevalent, extending their distribution poleward at the expense of species with aplanktonic development. We predict that developmental durations are likely to decrease, particularly in high latitudes where durations may decline by more than 90%. Overall, we anticipate significant changes to dispersal in marine environments, with species in the polar seas experiencing the greatest change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Life in fluctuating environments

Variability in the environment defines the structure and dynamics of all living systems, from organisms to ecosystems. Species have evolved traits and strategies that allow them to detect, exploit and predict the changing environment. These traits allow organisms to maintain steady internal conditions required for physiological functioning through feedback mechanisms that allow internal conditions to remain at or near a set-point despite a fluctuating environment. In addition to feedback, many organisms have evolved feedforward processes, which allow them to adjust in anticipation of an expected future state of the environment. Here we provide a framework describing how feedback and feedforward mechanisms operating within organisms can generate effects across scales of organization, and how they allow living systems to persist in fluctuating environments. Daily, seasonal and multi-year cycles provide cues that organisms use to anticipate changes in physiologically relevant environmental conditions. Using feedforward mechanisms, organisms can exploit correlations in environmental variables to prepare for anticipated future changes. Strategies to obtain, store and act on information about the conditional nature of future events are advantageous and are evidenced in widespread phenotypes such as circadian clocks, social behaviour, diapause and migrations. Humans are altering the ways in which the environment fluctuates, causing correlations between environmental variables to become decoupled, decreasing the reliability of cues. Human-induced environmental change is also altering sensory environments and the ability of organisms to detect cues. Recognizing that living systems combine feedback and feedforward processes is essential to understanding their responses to current and future regimes of environmental fluctuations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation’.

Habitat deterioration promotes the evolution of direct development in metamorphosing species

Although metamorphosis is widespread in the animal kingdom, several species have evolved life‐cycle modifications to avoid complete metamorphosis. Some species, for example, many salamanders and newts, have deleted the adult stage via a process called paedomorphosis. Others, for example, some frog species and marine invertebrates, no longer have a distinct larval stage and reach maturation via direct development. Here we study which ecological conditions can lead to the loss of metamorphosis via the evolution of direct development. To do so, we use size‐structured consumer‐resource models in conjunction with the adaptive‐dynamics approach. In case the larval habitat deteriorates, individuals will produce larger offspring and in concert accelerate metamorphosis. Although this leads to the evolutionary transition from metamorphosis to direct development when the adult habitat is highly favorable, the population will go extinct in case the adult habitat does not provide sufficient food to escape metamorphosis. With a phylogenetic approach we furthermore show that among amphibians the transition of metamorphosis to direct development is indeed, in line with model predictions, conditional on and preceded by the evolution of larger egg sizes.

Environmental variation mediates the evolution of anticipatory parental effects

Theory maintains that when future environment is predictable, parents should adjust the phenotype of their offspring to match the anticipated environment. The plausibility of positive anticipatory parental effects is hotly debated and the experimental evidence for the evolution of such effects is currently lacking. We experimentally investigated the evolution of anticipatory maternal effects in a range of environments that differ drastically in how predictable they are. Populations of the nematode Caenorhabditis remanei, adapted to 20°C, were exposed to a novel temperature (25°C) for 30 generations with either positive or zero correlation between parent and offspring environment. We found that populations evolving in novel environments that were predictable across generations evolved a positive anticipatory maternal effect, because they required maternal exposure to 25°C to achieve maximum reproduction in that temperature. In contrast, populations evolving under zero environmental correlation had lost this anticipatory maternal effect. Similar but weaker patterns were found if instead rate‐sensitive population growth was used as a fitness measure. These findings demonstrate that anticipatory parental effects evolve in response to environmental change so that ill‐fitting parental effects can be rapidly lost. Evolution of positive anticipatory parental effects can aid population viability in rapidly changing but predictable environments.

A case for environmental statistics of early-life effects

There is enduring debate over the question of which early-life effects are adaptive and which ones are not. Mathematical modelling shows that early-life effects can be adaptive in environments that have particular statistical properties, such as reliable cues to current conditions and high autocorrelation of environmental states. However, few empirical studies have measured these properties, leading to an impasse. Progress, therefore, depends on research that quantifies cue reliability and autocorrelation of environmental parameters in real environments. These statistics may be different for social and non-social aspects of the environment. In this paper, we summarize evolutionary models of early-life effects. Then, we discuss empirical data on environmental statistics from a range of disciplines. We highlight cases where data on environmental statistics have been used to test competing explanations of early-life effects. We conclude by providing guidelines for new data collection and reflections on future directions.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Developing differences: early-life effects and evolutionary medicine'.

Ecological change in dynamic environments: Accounting for temporal environmental variability in studies of ocean change biology

The environmental conditions in the ocean have long been considered relatively more stable through time compared to the conditions on land. Advances in sensing technologies, however, are increasingly revealing substantial fluctuations in abiotic factors over ecologically and evolutionarily relevant timescales in the ocean, leading to a growing recognition of the dynamism of the marine environment as well as new questions about how this dynamism may influence species' vulnerability to global environmental change. In some instances, the diurnal or seasonal variability in major environmental change drivers, such as temperature, pH and seawater carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen, can exceed the changes expected with continued anthropogenic global change. While ocean global change biologists have begun to experimentally test how variability in environmental conditions mediates species' responses to changes in the mean, the extensive literature on species' adaptations to temporal variability in their environment and the implications of this variability for their evolutionary responses has not been well integrated into the field. Here, we review the physiological mechanisms underlying species' responses to changes in temperature, pCO₂ /pH (and other carbonate parameters), and dissolved oxygen, and discuss what is known about behavioral, plastic, and evolutionary strategies for dealing with variable environments. In addition, we discuss how exposure to variability may influence species' responses to changes in the mean conditions and highlight key research needs for ocean global change biology.

Decreased Precipitation Predictability Negatively Affects Population Growth through Differences in Adult Survival

Global climate change is leading to decreased climatic predictability. Theoretical work indicates that changes in the climate's intrinsic predictability will affect population dynamics and extinction, but experimental evidence is scarce. Here, we experimentally tested whether differences in intrinsic precipitation predictability affect population dynamics of the European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) by simulating more predictable (MP) and less predictable (LP) precipitation in 12 seminatural populations over 3 years and measuring different vital rates. A seasonal age-structured matrix model was parametrized to assess treatment effects on vital rates and asymptotic population growth (λ). There was a nonsignificant trend for survival being higher in MP than in LP precipitation, and no differences existed in reproductive rates. Small nonsignificant survival differences in adults explained changes in λ, and survival differences among age classes were in line with predictions from cohort resonance. As a result, λ was significantly higher in MP than in LP precipitation. This experimentally shows that small effects have major consequences on λ, that forecasted decreases in precipitation predictability are likely to exacerbate the current rate of population decline and extinction, and that stage-structured matrix models are required to unravel the aftermath of climate change.

Environmental Predictability as a Cause and Consequence of Animal Movement

The impacts of environmental predictability on the ecology and evolution of animal movement have been the subject of vigorous speculation for several decades. Recently, the swell of new biologging technologies has further stimulated their investigation. This advancing research frontier, however, still lacks conceptual unification and has so far focused little on converse effects. Populations of moving animals have ubiquitous effects on processes such as nutrient cycling and seed dispersal and may therefore shape patterns of environmental predictability. Here, we synthesise the main strands of the literature on the feedbacks between environmental predictability and animal movement and discuss how they may react to anthropogenic disruption, leading to unexpected threats for wildlife and the environment.

Age-dependent effects of moderate differences in environmental predictability forecasted by climate change, experimental evidence from a short-lived lizard (Zootoca vivipara)

Whether and how differences in environmental predictability affect life-history traits is controversial and may depend on mean environmental conditions. Solid evidence for effects of environmental predictability are lacking and thus, the consequences of the currently observed and forecasted climate-change induced reduction of precipitation predictability are largely unknown. Here we experimentally tested whether and how changes in the predictability of precipitation affect growth, reproduction, and survival of common lizard Zootoca vivipara. Precipitation predictability affected all three age classes. While adults were able to compensate the treatment effects, yearlings and juvenile females were not able to compensate negative effects of less predictable precipitation on growth and body condition, respectively. Differences among the age-classes' response reflect differences (among age-classes) in the sensitivity to environmental predictability. Moreover, effects of environmental predictability depended on mean environmental conditions. This indicates that integrating differences in environmental sensitivity, and changes in averages and the predictability of climatic variables will be key to understand whether species are able to cope with the current climatic change.

Rapid and positive responses of plants to lower precipitation predictability

Current climate change is characterized by an increase in weather variability, which includes altered means, variance and predictability of weather parameters, and which may affect an organism's ecology and evolution. Few studies have experimentally manipulated the variability of weather parameters, and very little is known about the effects of changes in the intrinsic predictability of weather parameters on living organisms. Here, we experimentally tested the effects of differences in intrinsic precipitation-predictability on two herbaceous plants (Onobrychis viciifolia and Papaver rhoeas). Lower precipitation-predictability led to phenological advance and to an increase in reproductive success, and population growth. Both species exhibited rapid transgenerational responses in phenology and fitness-related traits across four generations that mitigated most effects of precipitation-predictability on fitness proxies of ancestors. Transgenerational responses appeared to be the result of changes in phenotypic plasticity rather than local adaptation. They mainly existed with respect to conditions prevailing during early, but not during late growth, suggesting that responses to differences in predictability during late growth might be more difficult. The results show that lower short-term predictability of precipitation positively affected fitness, rapid transgenerational responses existed and different time scales of predictability (short-term, seasonal and transgenerational predictability) may affect organisms differently. This shows that the time scale of predictability should be considered in evolutionary and ecological theories, and in assessments of the consequences of climate change.

Functional sustainability of periphytic biofilms in organic matter and Cu2+ removal during prolonged exposure to TiO2 nanoparticles

Responses of microbial communities to nanotoxicity in aquatic ecosystems are largely unknown, particularly with respect to relationship between community dynamics and functions. Here, periphytic biofilms were selected as a model of species-rich microbial communities to elucidate their responses when exposed to titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO₂-NPs). Especially, the relationships between the functions (e.g. organic matter and Cu²⁺ removal) and community dynamics after long-term exposure to TiO₂-NPs were assessed systematically. After 5days exposure to TiO₂-NPs (5mgL^-1), periphytic biofilms showed sustainable functions in pollutant removal and strong plasticity in defensing the toxic disturbance of TiO₂-NPs, including photosynthesis and carbon metabolic diversity. The sustainable pollutant removal functions of periphytic biofilms were attributed to their functional redundancy. Specifically, periphytic biofilms altered their composition with cyanobacteria, Sphingobacteriia and Spirochaetes being the newly dominant taxa, and changed the carbon substrate utilization pattern to maintain high photosynthesis and metabolic rates. Moreover, extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) especially proteins were overproduced to bind the NPs and thereby reduce the nanotoxicity. The information obtained in this study may greatly help to understand the interactions between microbial community dynamics and function under NPs exposure conditions and functional redundancy is an important mechanism of periphytic biofilms to maintain sustainable functions.

Regional variability in reproductive traits of the Acropora hyacinthus species complex in the Western Pacific Region

Understanding natural variations in the life history traits of reef-building corals under different environmental conditions is an area of active research. This study compares variability in the reproductive and genetic traits of the hermaphroditic broadcast spawning coral Acropora hyacinthus, from the Western Pacific Region, across six different latitudes [Japan (33° and 31°N), Taiwan (23°, 22° and 21°N), and Indonesia (5°S)]. Egg sizes among corals in the lowest latitude studied were significantly larger than those at high latitudes, while the mean number of eggs were significantly different only among high latitude and two out of the three mid latitude locations studied. Egg numbers were significantly negatively correlated with egg and testis volumes, indicating reproductive trade-offs across locations. Female gonad volumes were smaller at high latitudes but significantly larger at lower latitudes, being positively correlated with seawater temperatures. Furthermore, high genetic similarities among populations suggest active gene flow among low-, mid- and high-latitude locations. An exception to this trend, the mid-latitude location of Penghu (off western Taiwan) formed an independent group with highly similar genetic and reproductive traits, suggesting reproductive isolation with local adaptations. This study reports natural spatial variations in the reproductive traits of A. hyacinthus at different latitudinal locations, which may serve as baseline information to predict how the life histories of corals in general respond to the impacts of climate change.

From noise to knowledge: how randomness generates novel phenomena and reveals information

Noise, as the term itself suggests, is most often seen a nuisance to ecological insight, a inconvenient reality that must be acknowledged, a haystack that must be stripped away to reveal the processes of interest underneath. Yet despite this well-earned reputation, noise is often interesting in its own right: noise can induce novel phenomena that could not be understood from some underlying deterministic model alone. Nor is all noise the same, and close examination of differences in frequency, colour or magnitude can reveal insights that would otherwise be inaccessible. Yet with each aspect of stochasticity leading to some new or unexpected behaviour, the time is right to move beyond the familiar refrain of "everything is important" (Bjørnstad & Grenfell ). Stochastic phenomena can suggest new ways of inferring process from pattern, and thus spark more dialog between theory and empirical perspectives that best advances the field as a whole. I highlight a few compelling examples, while observing that the study of stochastic phenomena are only beginning to make this translation into empirical inference. There are rich opportunities at this interface in the years ahead.

Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?

Phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, is an important mechanism that organisms use to cope with rapid climate change. While an increasing number of studies show that plasticity across generations (transgenerational plasticity or TGP) may occur, we have limited understanding of key aspects of TGP, such as the environmental conditions that may promote it, its relationship to within-generation plasticity (WGP) and its role in evolutionary potential. In this review, we consider how the detection of TGP in climate change experiments is affected by the predictability of environmental variation, as well as the timing and magnitude of environmental change cues applied. We also discuss the need to design experiments that are able to distinguish TGP from selection and TGP from WGP in multigenerational experiments. We conclude by suggesting future research directions that build on the knowledge to date and admit the limitations that exist, which will depend on the way environmental change is simulated and the type of experimental design used. Such an approach will open up this burgeoning area of research to a wider variety of organisms and allow better predictive capacity of the role of TGP in the response of organisms to future climate change.

Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments

Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution may help evolutionary rescue in a novel and stressful environment, especially if environmental novelty reveals cryptic genetic variation that enables the evolution of increased plasticity. However, the environmental stochasticity ubiquitous in natural systems may alter these predictions, because high plasticity may amplify phenotype-environment mismatches. Although previous studies have highlighted this potential detrimental effect of plasticity in stochastic environments, they have not investigated how it affects extinction risk in the context of evolutionary rescue and with evolving plasticity. We investigate this question here by integrating stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory in a model with simultaneous change in the mean and predictability (temporal autocorrelation) of the environment. We develop an approximate prediction of long-term persistence under the new pattern of environmental fluctuations, and compare it with numerical simulations for short- and long-term extinction risk. We find that reduced predictability increases extinction risk and reduces persistence because it increases stochastic load during rescue. This understanding of how stochastic demography, phenotypic plasticity, and evolution interact when evolution acts on cryptic genetic variation revealed in a novel environment can inform expectations for invasions, extinctions, or the emergence of chemical resistance in pests.

The mean and variance of climate change in the oceans: hidden evolutionary potential under stochastic environmental variability in marine sticklebacks

Increasing climate variability may pose an even greater risk to species than climate warming because temperature fluctuations can amplify adverse impacts of directional warming on fitness-related traits. Here, the influence of directional warming and increasing climate variability on marine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) offspring size variation was investigated by simulating changes to the mean and variance of ocean temperatures predicted under climate change. Reproductive traits of mothers and offspring size reaction norms across four climate scenarios were examined to assess the roles of standing genetic variation, transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in adaptive potential. Mothers acclimated to directional warming produced smaller eggs than mothers in constant, ambient temperatures, whereas mothers in a predictably variable environment (weekly change between temperatures) produced a range of egg sizes, possibly reflecting a diversified bet hedging strategy. Offspring size post-hatch was mostly influenced by genotype by environment interactions and not transgenerational effects. Offspring size reaction norms also differed depending on the type of environmental predictability (predictably variable vs. stochastic), with offspring reaching the largest sizes in the stochastic environment. Release of cryptic genetic variation for offspring size in the stochastic environment suggests hidden evolutionary potential in this wild population to respond to changes in environmental predictability.

Seasonal changes in phosphorus competition and allelopathy of a benthic microbial assembly facilitate prevention of cyanobacterial blooms

Interactions among microbes determine the prevalence of harmful algal blooms that threaten water quality. These interactions can be indirectly mediated by shared resources or consumers, or through interference by the production of allelochemicals. Allelopathic interactions and resource competition have been shown to occur among algae and associated microbes. However, little work has considered seasonal influences on ecosystem structure and function. Here, we report results of our investigations on seasonal changes in the interactions between benthic microbial assemblies and the bloom forming cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa. We show that phosphorus (P) competition and allelopathy by the microbial assembly vary seasonally and inhibit growth of M. aeruginosa. The interactions per unit biomass of the microbial assembly are stronger under winter than summer conditions and inhibit the recruitment of the cyanobacteria, thereby preventing the reoccurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in the following summer. The seasonality of these interactions correlates with changes in composition, metabolic activity and functional diversity of the microbial assembly. Our findings highlight the importance of competitive and allelopathic interactions in regulating the occurrence of harmful algal blooms. Our results also imply that seasonal variation of competition and allelopathy of the microbial assembly might be beneficial to adjust aquatic ecosystem structure and function.

Adaptation to Temporally Fluctuating Environments by the Evolution of Maternal Effects

All organisms live in temporally fluctuating environments. Theory predicts that the evolution of deterministic maternal effects (i.e., anticipatory maternal effects or transgenerational phenotypic plasticity) underlies adaptation to environments that fluctuate in a predictably alternating fashion over maternal-offspring generations. In contrast, randomizing maternal effects (i.e., diversifying and conservative bet-hedging), are expected to evolve in response to unpredictably fluctuating environments. Although maternal effects are common, evidence for their adaptive significance is equivocal since they can easily evolve as a correlated response to maternal selection and may or may not increase the future fitness of offspring. Using the hermaphroditic nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, we here show that the experimental evolution of maternal glycogen provisioning underlies adaptation to a fluctuating normoxia-anoxia hatching environment by increasing embryo survival under anoxia. In strictly alternating environments, we found that hermaphrodites evolved the ability to increase embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced normoxia and to decrease embryo glycogen provisioning when they experienced anoxia. At odds with existing theory, however, populations facing irregularly fluctuating normoxia-anoxia hatching environments failed to evolve randomizing maternal effects. Instead, adaptation in these populations may have occurred through the evolution of fitness effects that percolate over multiple generations, as they maintained considerably high expected growth rates during experimental evolution despite evolving reduced fecundity and reduced embryo survival under one or two generations of anoxia. We develop theoretical models that explain why adaptation to a wide range of patterns of environmental fluctuations hinges on the existence of deterministic maternal effects, and that such deterministic maternal effects are more likely to contribute to adaptation than randomizing maternal effects.

Similar metabolic rate-temperature relationships after acclimation at constant and fluctuating temperatures in caterpillars of a sub-Antarctic moth

Temperature compensation in whole-animal metabolic rate is one of the responses thought, controversially, to characterize insects from low temperature environments. Temperature compensation may either involve a change in absolute values of metabolic rates or a change in the slope of the metabolic rate - temperature relationship. Moreover, assessments of compensation may be complicated by animal responses to fluctuating temperatures. Here we examined whole animal metabolic rates, at 0 °C, 5 °C, 10 °C and 15 °C, in caterpillars of the sub-Antarctic moth, Pringleophaga marioni Viette (Tineidae), following one week acclimations to 5 °C, 10 °C and 15 °C, and fluctuating temperatures of 0-10 °C, 5-15 °C, and 10-20 °C. Over the short term, temperature compensation was found following acclimation to 5 °C, but the effect size was small (3-14%). By comparison with caterpillars of 13 other lepidopteran species, no effect of temperature compensation was present, with the relationship between metabolic rate and temperature having a Q10 of 2 among species, and no effect of latitude on temperature-corrected metabolic rate. Fluctuating temperature acclimations for the most part had little effect compared with constant temperatures of the same mean value. Nonetheless, fluctuating temperatures of 5-15 °C resulted in lower metabolic rates at all test temperatures compared with constant 10 °C acclimation, in keeping with expectations from the literature. Absence of significant responses, or those of large effect, in metabolic rates in response to acclimation, may be a consequence of the unpredictable temperature variation over the short-term on sub-Antarctic Marion Island, to which P. marioni is endemic.

Introducing biological realism into the study of developmental plasticity in behaviour

There is increasing attention for integrating mechanistic and functional approaches to the study of (behavioural) development. As environments are mostly unstable, it is now often assumed that genetic parental information is in many cases not sufficient for offspring to become optimally adapted to the environment and that early environmental cues, either indirectly via the parents or from direct experience, are necessary to prepare them for a specific environment later in life. To study whether these early developmental processes are adaptive and through which mechanism, not only the early environmental cues but also how they impinge on the later-life environmental context has therefore to be taken into account when measuring the animal's performance. We first discuss at the conceptual level six ways in which interactions between influences of different time windows during development may act (consolidation, cumulative information gathering and priming, compensation, buffering, matching and mismatching, context dependent trait expression). In addition we discuss how different environmental factors during the same time window may interact in shaping the phenotype during development. Next we discuss the pros and cons of several experimental designs for testing these interaction effects, highlighting the necessity for full, reciprocal designs and the importance of adjusting the nature and time of manipulation to the animal's adaptive capacity. We then review support for the interaction effects from both theoretical models and animal experiments in different taxa. This demonstrates indeed the existence of interactions at multiple levels, including different environmental factors, different time windows and between generations. As a consequence, development is a life-long, environment-dependent process and therefore manipulating only the early environment without taking interaction effects with other and later environmental influences into account may lead to wrong conclusions and may also explain inconsistent results in the literature.