Temperature-size responses alter food chain persistence across environmental gradients

Temperature-size responses during ontogeny are independent of progenitors' thermal environments

Background

Warming generally induces faster developmental and growth rates, resulting in smaller asymptotic sizes of adults in warmer environments (a pattern known as the temperature-size rule). However, whether temperature-size responses are affected across generations, especially when thermal environments differ from one generation to the next, is unclear. Here, we tested temperature-size responses at different ontogenetic stages and in two consecutive generations using two soil-living Collembola species from the family Isotomidae: Folsomia candida (asexual) and Proisotoma minuta (sexually reproducing).

Methods

We used individuals (progenitors; F0) from cultures maintained during several generations at 15 °C or 20 °C, and exposed their offspring in cohorts (F1) to various thermal environments (15 °C, 20 °C, 25 °C and 30 °C) during their ontogenetic development (from egg laying to first reproduction; i.e., maturity). We measured development and size traits in the cohorts (egg diameter and body length at maturity), as well as the egg diameters of their progeny (F2). We predicted that temperature-size responses would be predominantly determined by within-generation plasticity, given the quick responsiveness of growth and developmental rates to changing thermal environments. However, we also expected that mismatches in thermal environments across generations would constrain temperature-size responses in offspring, possibly due to transgenerational plasticity.

Results

We found that temperature-size responses were generally weak in the two Collembola species, both for within- and transgenerational plasticity. However, egg and juvenile development were especially responsive at higher temperatures and were slightly affected by transgenerational plasticity. Interestingly, plastic responses among traits varied non-consistently in both Collembola species, with some traits showing plastic responses in one species but not in the other and vice versa. Therefore, our results do not support the view that the mode of reproduction can be used to explain the degree of phenotypic plasticity at the species level, at least between the two Collembola species used in our study. Our findings provide evidence for a general reset of temperature-size responses at the start of each generation and highlight the importance of measuring multiple traits across ontogenetic stages to fully understand species' thermal responses.

Temperature alters the predator-prey size relationships and size-selectivity of Southern Ocean fish

A primary response of many marine ectotherms to warming is a reduction in body size, to lower the metabolic costs associated with higher temperatures. The impact of such changes on ecosystem dynamics and stability will depend on the resulting changes to community size-structure, but few studies have investigated how temperature affects the relative size of predators and their prey in natural systems. We utilise >3700 prey size measurements from ten Southern Ocean lanternfish species sampled across >10° of latitude to investigate how temperature influences predator-prey size relationships and size-selective feeding. As temperature increased, we show that predators became closer in size to their prey, which was primarily associated with a decline in predator size and an increase in the relative abundance of intermediate-sized prey. The potential implications of these changes include reduced top-down control of prey populations and a reduction in the diversity of predator-prey interactions. Both of these factors could reduce the stability of community dynamics and ecosystem resistance to perturbations under ocean warming.

Young-of-the-year fish as bioindicators of eutrophication and temperature regime of water bodies

Young-of-the-year fish communities are widely used as bioindicators of various environmental disturbances. This study was conducted from 1997 to 2015 and aims to develop fish trait-based indices of changes in the temperature regime and eutrophication of water bodies in the Dnipro River basin. We identified fish traits that significantly correlate with both temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration optimum: reproduction habitat, oxygen tolerance, and toxicity tolerance. Compared to other ecological groups, lithophilic species exhibited the lowest degree of thermal and eutrophication optimum, indicating this species' greater vulnerability to environmental alteration. Fish species that are intolerant to water quality and low oxygen concentration were the most sensitive to changes in temperature regime and eutrophication level. Salinity preferences and water quality tolerance emerged as reliable predictors of temperature optimum. Freshwater fish had an average temperature optimum that was 4.5% higher than that of freshwater-brackish and freshwater-brackish-marine fish. Species tolerance to the temperature factors and nutrient loads correlated only with rheophily, with rheophilic species having an average 13.8% higher temperature tolerance than other fish species and a 10.4% higher chlorophyll-a concentration tolerance. The fish temperature index increased over time during the study period in all the studied water bodies, consistent with ongoing warming affecting all sites. In contrast, the Fish Eutrophication Index showed greater temporal heterogeneity in studied water bodies, indicating various adaptative potentials of fish communities to eutrophication. These indices can be relevant for assessing disturbed situations caused by changes in climatic and anthropogenic impacts on water bodies.

Body size and trophic position determine the outcomes of species invasions along temperature and productivity gradients

Species invasions are predicted to increase in frequency with global change, but quantitative predictions of how environmental filters and species traits influence the success and consequences of invasions for local communities are lacking. Here we investigate how invaders alter the structure, diversity and stability regime of simple communities across environmental gradients (habitat productivity, temperature) and community size structure. We simulate all three-species trophic modules (apparent and exploitative competition, trophic chain and intraguild predation). We predict that invasions most often succeed in warm and productive habitats and that successful invaders include smaller competitors, intraguild predators and comparatively small top predators. This suggests that species invasions and global change may facilitate the downsizing of food webs. Furthermore, we show that successful invasions leading to species substitutions rarely alter system stability, while invasions leading to increased diversity can destabilize or stabilize community dynamics depending on the environmental conditions and invader's trophic position.

Distinct impacts of feeding frequency and warming on life history traits affect population fitness in vertebrate ectotherms

Body size shifts in ectotherms are mostly attributed to the Temperature Size Rule (TSR) stating that warming speeds up initial growth rate but leads to smaller size when food does not limit growth. Investigating the links between temperature, growth, and life history traits is key to understand the adaptive value of TSR, which might be context dependent. In particular, global warming can affect food quantity or quality which is another major driver of growth, fecundity, and survival. However, we have limited information on how temperature and food jointly influence life history traits in vertebrate predators and how changes in different life history traits combine to influence fitness and population demography. We investigate (1) whether TSR is maintained under different food conditions, (2) if food exacerbates or dampens the effects of temperature on growth and life history traits and (3) if food influences the adaptive value of TSR. We combine experiments on the medaka with Integral Projection Models to scale from life history traits to fitness consequences. Our results confirm that warming triggers a higher initial growth rate and a lower adult size, reduces generation time and increases mean fitness. A lower level of food exacerbates the effects of warming on growth trajectories. Although lower feeding frequency increased survival and decreased fecundity, it did not influence the effects of warming on fish development rates, fecundity, and survival. In contrast, feeding frequency influenced the adaptive value of TSR, as, under intermittent feeding, generation time decreased faster with warming and the increase in growth rate with warming was weaker compared to continuously fed fish. These results are of importance in the context of global warming as resources are expected to change with increasing temperatures but, surprisingly, our results suggest that feeding frequency have a lower impact on fitness at high temperature.

Temperature, productivity, and habitat characteristics collectively drive lake food web structure

While many efforts have been devoted to understand variations in food web structure among terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, the environmental factors influencing food web structure at large spatial scales remain hardly explored. Here, we compiled biodiversity inventories to infer food web structure of 67 French lakes using an allometric niche-based model and tested how environmental variables (temperature, productivity, and habitat) influence them. By applying a multivariate analysis on 20 metrics of food web topology, we found that food web structural variations are represented by two distinct complementary and independent structural descriptors. The first is related to the overall trophic diversity, whereas the second is related to the vertical structure. Interestingly, the trophic diversity descriptor was mostly explained by habitat size (26.7% of total deviance explained) and habitat complexity (20.1%) followed by productivity (dissolved organic carbon: 16.4%; nitrate: 9.1%) and thermal variations (10.7%). Regarding the vertical structure descriptor, it was mostly explained by water thermal seasonality (39.0% of total deviance explained) and habitat depth (31.9%) followed by habitat complexity (8.5%) and size (5.5%) as well as annual mean temperature (5.6%). Overall, we found that temperature, productivity, and habitat characteristics collectively shape lake food web structure. We also found that intermediate levels of productivity, high levels of temperature (mean and seasonality), as well as large habitats are associated with the largest and most complex food webs. Our findings, therefore, highlight the importance of focusing on these three components especially in the context of global change, as significant structural changes in aquatic food webs could be expected under increased temperature, pollution, and habitat alterations.

Mismatches in thermal performance between ectothermic predators and prey alter interaction strength and top-down control

Climate change can alter predator-prey interactions when predators and prey have different thermal preferences as temperature change can exacerbate thermal mismatches (also called thermal asymmetry) with population-level consequences. We tested this using micro-arthropod predators (Stratiolaelaps scimitus) and prey (Folsomia candida) that differ in their temperature optima to examine predator-prey interactions across two temperature ranges, a cool (12 and 20 °C) and warm (20 and 26 °C) range. We predict that the lower thermal preference and optimum in F. candida will alter top-down control (i.e., interaction strength) by predators with interaction strength being strongest at intermediate temperatures, coinciding with F. candida thermal optimum. Predators and prey were placed in mesocosms, whereafter we measured population (predator and prey abundance), trait-based (average predator and prey body mass, and prey body length distribution), and predator-prey indices (predator-prey mass ratio (PPMR), Dynamic Index, and Log Response Ratio) to determine how temperature affected their interactions. Prey populations were the highest at intermediate temperatures (average temperature exposure: 16-23 °C) but declined at warmer temperatures (average temperature exposure: 24.5-26 °C). Predators consistently lowered prey abundances and average prey mass increased when predators were added. Top-down control was the greatest at intermediate temperatures (indicated by Log Response Ratio) when temperatures were near or below the thermal optimum for both species. Temperature-related prey declines negated top-down control under the warmest conditions suggesting that mismatches in thermal performance between predators and their prey will alter the strength and dominance of top-down or bottom-up forces of predator-prey interactions in a warmer world.

Linking animal behavior to ecosystem change in disturbed environments

Environmental disturbances often cause individuals to change their behavior. The behavioral responses can induce a chain of reactions through the network of species interactions, via consumptive and trait mediated connections. Given that species interactions define ecosystem structure and functioning, changes to these interactions often have ecological repercussions. Here, we explore the transmission of behavioral responses through the network of species interactions, and how the responses influence ecological conditions. We describe the underlying mechanisms and the ultimate impact that the behavioral responses can have on ecosystem structure and functioning, including biodiversity and ecosystems stability and services. We explain why behavioral responses of some species have a larger impact than that of others on ecosystems, and why research should focus on these species and their interactions. With the work, we synthesize existing theory and empirical evidence to provide a conceptual framework that links behavior responses to altered species interactions, community dynamics, and ecosystem processes. Considering that species interactions link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning, a deeper understanding of behavioral responses and their causes and consequences can improve our knowledge of the mechanisms and pathways through which human activities alter ecosystems. This knowledge can improve our ability to predict the effects of ongoing disturbances on communities and ecosystems and decide on the interventions needed to mitigate negative effects.

Stoichiometric constraints modulate temperature and nutrient effects on biomass distribution and community stability

Temperature and nutrients are two of the most important drivers of global change. Both can modify the elemental composition (i.e. stoichiometry) of primary producers and consumers. Yet their combined effect on the stoichiometry, dynamics and stability of ecological communities remains largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we extended the Rosenzweig-MacArthur consumer-resource model by including thermal dependencies, nutrient dynamics and stoichiometric constraints on both the primary producer and the consumer. We found that stoichiometric and nutrient conservation constraints dampen the paradox of enrichment and increased persistence at high nutrient levels. Nevertheless, stoichiometric constraints also reduced consumer persistence at extreme temperatures. Finally, we also found that stoichiometric constraints and nutrient dynamics can strongly influence biomass distribution across trophic levels by modulating consumer assimilation efficiency and resource growth rates along the environmental gradients. In the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model, consumer biomass exceeded resource biomass for most parameter values whereas, in the stoichiometric model, consumer biomass was strongly reduced and sometimes lower than resource biomass. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for stoichiometric constraints as they can mediate the temperature and nutrient impact on the dynamics and functioning of ecological communities.

Energetic mismatch induced by warming decreases leaf litter decomposition by aquatic detritivores

1. The balance of energetic losses and gains is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the persistence of populations and ecosystem processes in a rapidly changing world. Previous studies suggested that metabolic rate often increases faster with warming than resource ingestion rate, leading to an energetic mismatch at high temperature. However, little is known about the ecological consequences of this energetic mismatch for population demography and ecosystem functions. 2. Here, we combined laboratory experiments and modeling to investigate the energetic balance of a stream detritivore (Gammarus fossarum) along a temperature gradient and the consequences for detritivore populations and organic matter decomposition. 3. We experimentally measured the energetic losses (metabolic rate) and supplies (ingestion rate) of Gammarus and we modeled the impact of rising temperatures and changes in Gammarus body size induced by warming on population dynamics and benthic organic matter dynamics in freshwater systems. 4. Our experimental results indicated an energetic mismatch in a Gammarus population where losses via metabolic rate increase faster than supplies via food ingestion with warming, which translated in a decrease of energetic efficiency with temperature rising from 5 to 20 °C. Moreover, our consumer-resource model predicts a decrease in the biomass of Gammarus population with warming, associated with lower maximum abundances and steeper abundance decreases after biomass annual peaks. These changes resulted in a decrease of leaf litter decomposition rate and thus longer persistence of leaf litter standing stock over years in the simulations. In addition, Gammarus body size reductions led to shorter persistence for both leaf litter and Gammarus biomasses at low temperature and the opposite trend at high temperature, revealing that body size reduction was weakening the effect of temperature on resource and consumer persistence. 5. Our model contributes to identifying the mechanisms that explain how thermal effects at the level of individuals may cascade through trophic interactions and influence important ecosystem processes. Considering the balance of physiological processes is crucial to improve our ability to predict the impact of climate change on carbon stocks and ecosystem functions.

Short‐term thermal acclimation modulates predator functional response

Phenotypic plastic responses to temperature can modulate the kinetic effects of temperature on biological rates and traits and thus play an important role for species adaptation to climate change. However, there is little information on how these plastic responses to temperature can influence trophic interactions. Here, we conducted an experiment using marbled crayfish and their water louse prey to investigate how short‐term thermal acclimation at two temperatures (16 and 24°C) modulates the predator functional response. We found that both functional response parameters (search rate and handling time) differed between the two experimental temperatures. However, the sign and magnitudes of these differences strongly depended on acclimation time. Acclimation to 16°C increased handling time and search rate whereas acclimation to 24°C leads to the opposite effects with shorter handling time and lower search rate for acclimated predators. Moreover, the strength of these effects increased with acclimation time so that the differences in search rate and handing time between the two temperatures were reversed between the treatment without acclimation and after 24 h of acclimation. Overall, we found that the magnitude of the acclimation effects can be as strong as the direct kinetic effects of temperature. Our study highlights the importance of taking into account short‐term thermal plasticity to improve our understanding of the potential consequences of global warming on species interactions.

Effects of Warming on Intraguild Predator Communities with Ontogenetic Diet Shifts

AbstractSpecies interactions mediate how warming affects community composition via individual growth and population size structure. While predictions on how warming affects composition of size- or stage-structured communities have so far focused on linear (food chain) communities, mixed competition-predation interactions, such as intraguild predation, are common. Intraguild predation often results from changes in diet over ontogeny ("ontogenetic diet shifts") and strongly affects community composition and dynamics. Here, we study how warming affects a community of intraguild predators with ontogenetic diet shifts, consumers, and shared prey by analyzing a stage-structured bioenergetics multispecies model with temperature- and body size-dependent individual-level rates. We find that warming can strengthen competition and decrease predation, leading to a loss of a cultivation mechanism (the feedback between predation on and competition with consumers exerted by predators) and ultimately predator collapse. Furthermore, we show that the effect of warming on community composition depends on the extent of the ontogenetic diet shift and that warming can cause a sequence of community reconfigurations in species with partial diet shifts. Our findings contrast previous predictions concerning individual growth of predators and the mechanisms behind predator loss in warmer environments and highlight how feedbacks between temperature and intraspecific size structure are important for understanding such effects on community composition.

Refocusing multiple stressor research around the targets and scales of ecological impacts

Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-interacting stressors at one or few scales of ecological organization. This is concerning because it could lead to significant underestimations or overestimations of threats to biodiversity. Furthermore, stressors have been largely classified by their source rather than by the mechanisms and ecological scales at which they act (the target). Here, we argue, first, that a more nuanced classification of stressors by target and ecological scale can generate valuable new insights and hypotheses about stressor interactions. Second, that the predictability of multiple stressor effects, and consistent patterns in their impacts, can be evaluated by examining the distribution of stressor effects across targets and ecological scales. Third, that a variety of existing mechanistic and statistical modelling tools can play an important role in our framework and advance multiple stressor research.

Blue Waters, Green Bottoms: Benthic Filamentous Algal Blooms Are an Emerging Threat to Clear Lakes Worldwide

Nearshore (littoral) habitats of clear lakes with high water quality are increasingly experiencing unexplained proliferations of filamentous algae that grow on submerged surfaces. These filamentous algal blooms (FABs) are sometimes associated with nutrient pollution in groundwater, but complex changes in climate, nutrient transport, lake hydrodynamics, and food web structure may also facilitate this emerging threat to clear lakes. A coordinated effort among members of the public, managers, and scientists is needed to document the occurrence of FABs, to standardize methods for measuring their severity, to adapt existing data collection networks to include nearshore habitats, and to mitigate and reverse this profound structural change in lake ecosystems. Current models of lake eutrophication do not explain this littoral greening. However, a cohesive response to it is essential for protecting some of the world's most valued lakes and the flora, fauna, and ecosystem services they sustain.

Eco-evolutionary consequences of habitat warming and fragmentation in communities

Eco-evolutionary dynamics can mediate species and community responses to habitat warming and fragmentation, two of the largest threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. The eco-evolutionary consequences of warming and fragmentation are typically studied independently, hindering our understanding of their simultaneous impacts. Here, we provide a new perspective rooted in trade-offs among traits for understanding their eco-evolutionary consequences. On the one hand, temperature influences traits related to metabolism, such as resource acquisition and activity levels. Such traits are also likely to have trade-offs with other energetically costly traits, like antipredator defences or dispersal. On the other hand, fragmentation can influence a variety of traits (e.g. dispersal) through its effects on the spatial environment experienced by individuals, as well as properties of populations, such as genetic structure. The combined effects of warming and fragmentation on communities should thus reflect their collective impact on traits of individuals and populations, as well as trade-offs at multiple trophic levels, leading to unexpected dynamics when effects are not additive and when evolutionary responses modulate them. Here, we provide a road map to navigate this complexity. First, we review single-species responses to warming and fragmentation. Second, we focus on consumer-resource interactions, considering how eco-evolutionary dynamics can arise in response to warming, fragmentation, and their interaction. Third, we illustrate our perspective with several example scenarios in which trait trade-offs could result in significant eco-evolutionary dynamics. Specifically, we consider the possible eco-evolutionary consequences of (i) evolution in thermal performance of a species involved in a consumer-resource interaction, (ii) ecological or evolutionary changes to encounter and attack rates of consumers, and (iii) changes to top consumer body size in tri-trophic food chains. In these scenarios, we present a number of novel, sometimes counter-intuitive, potential outcomes. Some of these expectations contrast with those solely based on ecological dynamics, for example, evolutionary responses in unexpected directions for resource species or unanticipated population declines in top consumers. Finally, we identify several unanswered questions about the conditions most likely to yield strong eco-evolutionary dynamics, how better to incorporate the role of trade-offs among traits, and the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics in governing responses to warming in fragmented communities.

Theory of temperature-dependent consumer-resource interactions

Changes in temperature affect consumer-resource interactions, which underpin the functioning of ecosystems. However, existing studies report contrasting predictions regarding the impacts of warming on biological rates and community dynamics. To improve prediction accuracy and comparability, we develop an approach that combines sensitivity analysis and aggregate parameters. The former determines which biological parameters impact the community most strongly. The use of aggregate parameters (i.e., maximal energetic efficiency, ρ, and interaction strength, κ), that combine multiple biological parameters, increases explanatory power and reduces the complexity of theoretical analyses. We illustrate the approach using empirically derived thermal dependence curves of biological rates and applying it to consumer-resource biomass ratio and community stability. Based on our analyses, we generate four predictions: (1) resource growth rate regulates biomass distributions at mild temperatures, (2) interaction strength alone determines the thermal boundaries of the community, (3) warming destabilises dynamics at low and mild temperatures only and (4) interactions strength must decrease faster than maximal energetic efficiency for warming to stabilise dynamics. We argue for the potential benefits of directly working with the aggregate parameters to increase the accuracy of predictions on warming impacts on food webs and promote cross-system comparisons.

Prey and predator density-dependent interactions under different water volumes

Predation is a critical ecological process that directly and indirectly mediates population stabilities, as well as ecosystem structure and function. The strength of interactions between predators and prey may be mediated by multiple density dependences concerning numbers of predators and prey. In temporary wetland ecosystems in particular, fluctuating water volumes may alter predation rates through differing search space and prey encounter rates. Using a functional response approach, we examined the influence of predator and prey densities on interaction strengths of the temporary pond specialist copepod Lovenula raynerae preying on cladoceran prey, Daphnia pulex, under contrasting water volumes. Further, using a population dynamic modeling approach, we quantified multiple predator effects across differences in prey density and water volume. Predators exhibited type II functional responses under both water volumes, with significant antagonistic multiple predator effects (i.e., antagonisms) exhibited overall. The strengths of antagonistic interactions were, however, enhanced under reduced water volumes and at intermediate prey densities. These findings indicate important biotic and abiotic contexts that mediate predator-prey dynamics, whereby multiple predator effects are contingent on both prey density and search area characteristics. In particular, reduced search areas (i.e., water volumes) under intermediate prey densities could enhance antagonisms by heightening predator-predator interference effects.

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change

Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales.

We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems.

We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose.

By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

Warming indirectly increases invasion success in food webs

Climate warming and biological invasions are key drivers of biodiversity change. Their combined effects on ecological communities remain largely unexplored. We investigated the direct and indirect influences of temperature on invasion success, and their synergistic effects on community structure and dynamics. Using size-structured food web models, we found that higher temperatures increased invasion success. The direct physiological effects of temperature on invasions were minimal in comparison with indirect effects mediated by changes on food web structure and stability. Warmer communities with less connectivity, shortened food chains and reduced temporal variability were more susceptible to invasions. The directionality and magnitude of invasions effects on food webs varied across temperature regimes. When invaded, warmer communities became smaller, more connected and with more predator species than their colder counterparts. They were also less stable and their species more abundant. Considering food web structure is crucial to predict invasion success and its impacts along temperature gradients.

Thermal mismatches in biological rates determine trophic control and biomass distribution under warming

Temperature has numerous effects on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. Yet, there is no general trend or consensus on the magnitude and directions of these effects. To fill this gap, we propose a mechanistic framework based on key biological rates that predicts how temperature influences biomass distribution and trophic control in food webs. We show that these predictions arise from thermal mismatches between biological rates and across trophic levels. We couple our theory with experimental data for a wide range of species and find that warming should lead to top-heavier terrestrial food chains and stronger top-down control in aquatic environments. We then derive predictions for the effects of temperature on herbivory and validate them with data on stream grazers. Our study provides a mechanistic explanation of thermal effects on consumer-resource systems which is crucial to better understand the biogeography and the consequences of global warming on trophic dynamics.

Temperature variability alters the stability and thresholds for collapse of interacting species

Temperature variability and extremes can have profound impacts on populations and ecological communities. Predicting impacts of thermal variability poses a challenge, because it has both direct physiological effects and indirect effects through species interactions. In addition, differences in thermal performance between predators and prey and nonlinear averaging of temperature-dependent performance can result in complex and counterintuitive population dynamics in response to climate change. Yet the combined consequences of these effects remain underexplored. Here, modelling temperature-dependent predator-prey dynamics, we study how changes in temperature variability affect population size, collapse and stable coexistence of both predator and prey, relative to under constant environments or warming alone. We find that the effects of temperature variation on interacting species can lead to a diversity of outcomes, from predator collapse to stable coexistence, depending on interaction strengths and differences in species' thermal performance. Temperature variability also alters predictions about population collapse-in some cases allowing predators to persist for longer than predicted when considering warming alone, and in others accelerating collapse. To inform management responses that are robust to future climates with increasing temperature variability and extremes, we need to incorporate the consequences of temperature variation in complex ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Impacts of predator-induced behavioural plasticity on the temperature dependence of predator-prey activity and population dynamics

Predation is a key ecological interaction affecting populations and communities. Climate warming can modify this interaction both directly by the kinetic effects of temperature on biological rates and indirectly through integrated behavioural and physiological responses of the predators and prey. Temperature dependence of predation rates can further be altered by predator-induced plasticity of prey locomotor activity, but empirical data about this effect are lacking. We propose a general framework to understand the influence of predator-induced developmental plasticity on behavioural thermal reaction norms in prey and their consequences for predator-prey dynamics. Using a mesocosm experiment with dragonfly larvae (predator) and newt larvae (prey), we tested if the predator-induced plasticity alters the elevation or the slope of the thermal reaction norms for locomotor activity metrics in prey. We also estimated the joint predator-prey thermal response in mean locomotor speed, which determines prey encounter rate, and modelled the effect of both phenomena on predator-prey population dynamics. Thermal reaction norms for locomotor activity in prey were affected by predation risk cues but with minor influence on the joint predator-prey behavioural response. We found that predation risk cues significantly decreased the intercept of thermal reaction norm for total activity rate (i.e. all body movements) but not the other locomotor activity metrics in the prey, and that prey locomotor activity rate and locomotor speed increased with prey density. Temperature had opposite effects on the mean relative speed of predator and prey as individual speed increased with temperature in predators but decreased in prey. This led to a negligible effect of body temperature on predicted prey encounter rates and predator-prey dynamics. The behavioural component of predator-prey interaction varied much more between individuals than with temperature and the presence of predation risk cues in our system. We conclude that within-population variation in locomotor activity can buffer the influence of body temperature and predation risk cues on predator-prey interactions, and further research should focus on the magnitude and sources of behavioural variation in interacting species to predict the impact of climate change on predator-prey interactions and food web dynamics.

Predators drive community reorganization during experimental range shifts

Increased global temperatures caused by climate change are causing species to shift their ranges and colonize new sites, creating novel assemblages that have historically not interacted. Species interactions play a central role in the response of ecosystems to climate change, but the role of trophic interactions in facilitating or preventing range expansions is largely unknown. The goal of our study was to understand how predators influence the ability of range-shifting prey to successfully establish in newly available habitat following climate warming. We hypothesized that fish predation facilitates the establishment of colonizing zooplankton populations, because fish preferentially consume larger species that would otherwise competitively exclude smaller-bodied colonists. We conducted a mesocosm experiment with zooplankton communities and their fish predators from lakes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California, USA. We tested the effect of fish predation on the establishment and persistence of a zooplankton community when introduced in the presence of higher- and lower-elevation communities at two experimental temperatures in field mesocosms. We found that predators reduce the abundance of larger-bodied residents from the alpine and facilitate the establishment of new lower-elevation species. In addition, fish predation and warming independently reduced the average body size of zooplankton by up to 30%. This reduction in body size offset the direct effect of warming-induced increases in population growth rates, leading to no net change in zooplankton biomass or trophic cascade strength. We found support for a shift to smaller species with climate change through two mechanisms: (a) the direct effects of warming on developmental rates and (b) size-selective predation that altered the identity of species' that could colonize new higher elevation habitat. Our results suggest that predators can amplify the rate of range shifts by consuming larger-bodied residents and facilitating the establishment of new species. However, the effects of climate warming were dampened by reducing the average body size of community members, leading to no net change in ecosystem function, despite higher growth rates. This work suggests that trophic interactions play a role in the reorganization of regional communities under climate warming.

Species multidimensional effects explain idiosyncratic responses of communities to environmental change

Environmental change can alter species' abundances within communities consistently; for example, increasing all abundances by the same percentage, or more idiosyncratically. Here, we show how comparing effects of temperature on species grown in isolation and when grown together helps our understanding of how ecological communities more generally respond to environmental change. In particular, we find that the shape of the feasibility domain (the parameter space of carrying capacities compatible with positive species' abundances) helps to explain the composition of experimental microbial communities under changing environmental conditions. First, we introduce a measure to quantify the asymmetry of a community's feasibility domain using the column vectors of the corresponding interaction matrix. These column vectors describe the effects each species has on all other species in the community (hereafter referred to as species' multidimensional effects). We show that as the asymmetry of the feasibility domain increases the relationship between species' abundance when grown together and when grown in isolation weakens. We then show that microbial communities experiencing different temperature environments exhibit patterns consistent with this theory. Specifically, communities at warmer temperatures show relatively more asymmetry; thus, the idiosyncrasy of responses is higher compared with that in communities at cooler temperatures. These results suggest that while species' interactions are typically defined at the pairwise level, multispecies dynamics can be better understood by focusing on the effects of these interactions at the community level.

Recent warming reduces the reproductive advantage of large size and contributes to evolutionary downsizing in nature

Body size is a key functional trait that is predicted to decline under warming. Warming is known to cause size declines via phenotypic plasticity, but evolutionary responses of body size to warming are poorly understood. To test for warming-induced evolutionary responses of body size and growth rates, we used populations of mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) recently established (less than 100 years) from a common source across a strong thermal gradient (19–33°C) created by geothermal springs. Each spring is remarkably stable in temperature and is virtually closed to gene flow from other thermal environments. Field surveys show that with increasing site temperature, body size distributions become smaller and the reproductive advantage of larger body size decreases. After common rearing to reveal recently evolved trait differences, warmer-source populations expressed slowed juvenile growth rates and increased reproductive effort at small sizes. These results are consistent with an adaptive basis of the plastic temperature–size rule, and they suggest that temperature itself can drive the evolution of countergradient variation in growth rates. The rapid evolution of reduced juvenile growth rates and greater reproduction at a small size should contribute to substantial body downsizing in populations, with implications for population dynamics and for ecosystems in a warming world.

Influence of intra- and interspecific variation in predator-prey body size ratios on trophic interaction strengths

Predation is a pervasive force that structures food webs and directly influences ecosystem functioning. The relative body sizes of predators and prey may be an important determinant of interaction strengths. However, studies quantifying the combined influence of intra- and interspecific variation in predator-prey body size ratios are lacking.We use a comparative functional response approach to examine interaction strengths between three size classes of invasive bluegill and largemouth bass toward three scaled size classes of their tilapia prey. We then quantify the influence of intra- and interspecific predator-prey body mass ratios on the scaling of attack rates and handling times.Type II functional responses were displayed by both predators across all predator and prey size classes. Largemouth bass consumed more than bluegill at small and intermediate predator size classes, while large predators of both species were more similar. Small prey were most vulnerable overall; however, differential attack rates among prey were emergent across predator sizes. For both bluegill and largemouth bass, small predators exhibited higher attack rates toward small and intermediate prey sizes, while larger predators exhibited greater attack rates toward large prey. Conversely, handling times increased with prey size, with small bluegill exhibiting particularly low feeding rates toward medium-large prey types. Attack rates for both predators peaked unimodally at intermediate predator-prey body mass ratios, while handling times generally shortened across increasing body mass ratios.We thus demonstrate effects of body size ratios on predator-prey interaction strengths between key fish species, with attack rates and handling times dependent on the relative sizes of predator-prey participants.Considerations for intra- and interspecific body size ratio effects are critical for predicting the strengths of interactions within ecosystems and may drive differential ecological impacts among invasive species as size ratios shift.

How Do Eutrophication and Temperature Interact to Shape the Community Structures of Phytoplankton and Fish in Lakes?

Freshwater ecosystems are among the systems most threatened and impacted by anthropogenic activities, but there is still a lack of knowledge on how this multi-pressure environment impacts aquatic communities in situ. In Europe, nutrient enrichment and temperature increase due to global change were identified as the two main pressures on lakes. Therefore, we investigated how the interaction of these two pressures impacts the community structure of the two extreme components of lake food webs: phytoplankton and fish. We modelled the relationship between community components (abundance, composition, size) and environmental conditions, including these two pressures. Different patterns of response were highlighted. Four metrics responded to only one pressure and one metric to the additive effect of the two pressures. Two fish metrics (average body-size and biomass ratio between perch and roach) were impacted by the interaction of temperature and eutrophication, revealing that the effect of one pressure was dependent on the magnitude of the second pressure. From a management point of view, it appears necessary to consider the type and strength of the interactions between pressures when assessing the sensitivity of communities, otherwise their vulnerability (especially to global change) could be poorly estimated.

Interacting Temperature, Nutrients and Zooplankton Grazing Control Phytoplankton Size-Abundance Relationships in Eight Swiss Lakes

Biomass distribution among size classes follows a power law where the Log-abundance of taxa scales to Log-size with a slope that responds to environmental abiotic and biotic conditions. The interactions between ecological mechanisms controlling the slope of locally realized size-abundance relationships (SAR) are however not well understood. Here we tested how warming, nutrient levels, and grazing affect the slope of phytoplankton community SARs in decadal time-series from eight Swiss lakes of the peri-alpine region, which underwent environmental forcing due to climate change and oligotrophication. We expected rising temperature to have a negative effect on slope (favoring small phytoplankton), and increasing nutrient levels and grazing pressure to have a positive effect (benefiting large phytoplankton). Using a random forest approach to extract robust patterns from the noisy data, we found that the effects of temperature (direct and indirect through water column stability), nutrient availability (phosphorus and total biomass), and large herbivore (copepods and daphnids) grazing and selectivity on slope were non-linear and interactive. Increasing water temperature or total grazing pressure, and decreasing phosphorus levels, had a positive effect on slope (favoring large phytoplankton, which are predominantly mixotrophic in the lake dataset). Our results therefore showed patterns that were opposite to the expected long-term effects of temperature and nutrient levels, and support a paradigm in which (i) small phototrophic phytoplankton appear to be favored under high nutrients levels, low temperature and low grazing, and (ii) large mixotrophic algae are favored under oligotrophic conditions when temperature and grazing pressure are high. The effects of temperature were stronger under nutrient limitation, and the effects of nutrients and grazing were stronger at high temperature. Our study shows that the phytoplankton local SARs in lakes respond to both the independent and the interactive effects of resources, grazing and water temperature in a complex, unexpected way, and observations from long-term studies can deviate significantly from general theoretical expectations.

Tri-trophic interactions: bridging species, communities and ecosystems

A vast body of research demonstrates that many ecological and evolutionary processes can only be understood from a tri-trophic viewpoint, that is, one that moves beyond the pairwise interactions of neighbouring trophic levels to consider the emergent features of interactions among multiple trophic levels. Despite its unifying potential, tri-trophic research has been fragmented, following two distinct paths. One has focused on the population biology and evolutionary ecology of simple food chains of interacting species. The other has focused on bottom-up and top-down controls over the distribution of biomass across trophic levels and other ecosystem-level variables. Here, we propose pathways to bridge these two long-standing perspectives. We argue that an expanded theory of tri-trophic interactions (TTIs) can unify our understanding of biological processes across scales and levels of organisation, ranging from species evolution and pairwise interactions to community structure and ecosystem function. To do so requires addressing how community structure and ecosystem function arise as emergent properties of component TTIs, and, in turn, how species traits and TTIs are shaped by the ecosystem processes and the abiotic environment in which they are embedded. We conclude that novel insights will come from applying tri-trophic theory systematically across all levels of biological organisation.

Species interactions under climate change: connecting kinetic effects of temperature on individuals to community dynamics

Human-induced climate change, dominated by warming trends, poses a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Species interactions relay the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on individuals to communities, and detailed understanding across these levels is crucial to predict ecological consequences of climate change. We provide a conceptual framework that links temperature effects on insect physiology and behaviour to altered species interactions and community dynamics. We highlight key features of this framework with recent studies investigating the impacts of warming climate on insects and other ectotherms and identify methodological, taxonomic and geographic biases. While the effects of increased constant temperatures are now well understood, future studies should focus on temperature variation, interactions with other stressors and cross-system comparisons.

Different phenotypic plastic responses to predators observed among aphid lineages specialized on different host plants

The role of intraspecific variation in the magnitude and direction of plastic responses in ecology and evolution is increasingly recognized. However, the factors underlying intraspecific variation in plastic responses remain largely unexplored, particularly for the hypothesis that the herbivores' phenotypic response to predators might vary amongst lineages associated with different host plants. Here, we tested whether plant-specialized lineages of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, differed in their transgenerational phenotypic response to ladybird predators (i.e., the asexual production of winged offspring by wingless mothers). In a full factorial laboratory experiment, we found that six aphid clonal lineages each specialized either on alfalfa or clover significantly differed in their transgenerational phenotypic response to predators. Some lineages produced an increased number of winged aphids in predator presence while others did not respond. Aphid lineages specialized on alfalfa had stronger phenotypic responses to predators than those specialized on clover. Although we tested only six aphid lineages from two biotypes, our results imply that intraspecific variation in prey phenotypic response of herbivores to predators differs amongst lineages specialized on different host plants. Our findings therefore raise the question of the influence of plant specialization in shaping herbivore phenotypic responses, and highlight the need to consider multi-trophic interactions to understand the causes and consequences of intraspecific variation in complex phenotypic traits.

Trophic interactions modify the temperature dependence of community biomass and ecosystem function

Aquatic ecosystems worldwide continue to experience unprecedented warming and ecological change. Warming increases metabolic rates of animals, plants, and microbes, accelerating their use of energy and materials, their population growth, and interaction rates. At a much larger biological scale, warming accelerates ecosystem-level processes, elevating fluxes of carbon and oxygen between biota and the atmosphere. Although these general effects of temperature at finer and broader biological scales are widely observed, they can lead to contradictory predictions for how warming affects the structure and function of ecological communities at the intermediate scale of biological organization. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that the presence of predators and their associated species interactions modify the temperature dependence of net ecosystem oxygen production and respiration. We tracked a series of independent freshwater ecosystems (370 L) over 9 weeks, and we found that at higher temperatures, cascading effects of predators on zooplankton prey and algae were stronger than at lower temperatures. When grazing was weak or absent, standing phytoplankton biomass declined by 85%–95% (<1-fold) over the temperature gradient (19–30 °C), and by 3-fold when grazers were present and lacked predators. These temperature-dependent species interactions and consequent community biomass shifts occurred without signs of species loss or community collapse, and only modestly affected the temperature dependence of net ecosystem oxygen fluxes. The exponential increases in net ecosystem oxygen production and consumption were relatively insensitive to differences in trophic interactions among ecosystems. Furthermore, monotonic declines in phytoplankton standing stock suggested no threshold effects of warming across systems. We conclude that local changes in community structure, including temperature-dependent trophic cascades, may be compatible with prevailing and predictable effects of temperature on ecosystem functions related to fundamental effects of temperature on metabolism.

Warming reduces the effects of enrichment on stability and functioning across levels of organisation in an aquatic microbial ecosystem

Warming and nutrient enrichment are major environmental factors shaping ecological dynamics. However, cross-scale investigation of their combined effects by linking theory and experiments is lacking. We collected data from aquatic microbial ecosystems investigating the interactive effects of warming (constant and rising temperatures) and enrichment across levels of organisation and contrasted them with community models based on metabolic theory. We found high agreement between our observations and theoretical predictions: we observed in many cases the predicted antagonistic effects of high temperature and high enrichment across levels of organisation. Temporal stability of total biomass decreased with warming but did not differ across enrichment levels. Constant and rising temperature treatments with identical mean temperature did not show qualitative differences. Overall, we conclude that model and empirical results are in broad agreement due to robustness of the effects of temperature and enrichment, that the mitigating effects of temperature on effects of enrichment may be common, and that models based on metabolic theory provide qualitatively robust predictions of the combined ecological effects of enrichment and temperature.

Size-based ecological interactions drive food web responses to climate warming

Predicting climate change impacts on animal communities requires knowledge of how physiological effects are mediated by ecological interactions. Food-dependent growth and within-species size variation depend on temperature and affect community dynamics through feedbacks between individual performance and population size structure. Still, we know little about how warming affects these feedbacks. Using a dynamic stage-structured biomass model with food-, size- and temperature-dependent life history processes, we analyse how temperature affects coexistence, stability and size structure in a tri-trophic food chain, and find that warming effects on community stability depend on ecological interactions. Predator biomass densities generally decline with warming - gradually or through collapses - depending on which consumer life stage predators feed on. Collapses occur when warming induces alternative stable states via Allee effects. This suggests that predator persistence in warmer climates may be lower than previously acknowledged and that effects of warming on food web stability largely depend on species interactions.

Metabolic Theory and the Temperature-Size Rule Explain the Temperature Dependence of Population Carrying Capacity

The temperature dependence of highly conserved subcellular metabolic systems affects ecological patterns and processes across scales, from organisms to ecosystems. Population density at carrying capacity plays an important role in evolutionary processes, biodiversity, and ecosystem function, yet how it varies with temperature-dependent metabolism remains unclear. Though the exponential effect of temperature on intrinsic population growth rate, r, is well known, we still lack clear evidence that population density at carrying capacity, K, declines with increasing per capita metabolic rate, as predicted by the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE). We experimentally tested whether temperature effects on photosynthesis propagate directly to population carrying capacity in a model species, the mobile phytoplankton Tetraselmis tetrahele. After maintaining populations at a fixed resource supply and fixed temperatures for 43 days, we found that carrying capacity declined with increasing temperature. This decline was predicted quantitatively when models included temperature-dependent metabolic rates and temperature-associated body-size shifts. Our results demonstrate that warming reduces carrying capacity and that temperature effects on body size and metabolic rate interact to determine how temperature affects population dynamics. These findings bolster efforts to relate metabolic temperature dependence to population and ecosystem patterns via MTE.

Evolution without standing genetic variation: change in transgenerational plastic response under persistent predation pressure

Transgenerational phenotypic plasticity is a fast non-genetic response to environmental modifications that can buffer the effects of environmental stresses on populations. However, little is known about the evolution of plasticity in the absence of standing genetic variation although several non-genetic inheritance mechanisms have now been identified. Here we monitored the pea aphid transgenerational phenotypic response to ladybird predators (production of winged offspring) during 27 generations of experimental evolution in the absence of initial genetic variation (clonal multiplication starting from a single individual). We found that the frequency of winged aphids first increased rapidly in response to predators and then remained stable over 25 generations, implying a stable phenotypic reconstruction at each generation. We also found that the high frequency of winged aphids persisted for one generation after removing predators. Winged aphid frequency then entered a refractory phase during which it dropped below the level of control lines for at least two generations before returning to it. Interestingly, the persistence of the winged phenotype decreased and the refractory phase lasted longer with the increasing number of generations of exposure to predators. Finally, we found that aphids continuously exposed to predators for 22 generations evolved a significantly weaker plastic response than aphids never exposed to predators, which, in turn, increased their fitness in presence of predators. Our findings therefore showcased an example of experimental evolution of plasticity in the absence of initial genetic variation and highlight the importance of integrating several components of non-genetic inheritance to detect evolutionary responses to environmental changes.