Effects of local density dependence and temperature on the spatial synchrony of marine fish populations

Disentangling empirically the many processes affecting spatial population synchrony is a challenge in population ecology. Two processes that could have major effects on the spatial synchrony of wild population dynamics are density dependence and variation in environmental conditions like temperature. Understanding these effects is crucial for predicting the effects of climate change on local and regional population dynamics. We quantified the direct contribution of local temperature and density dependence to spatial synchrony in the population dynamics of nine fish species inhabiting the Barents Sea. First, we estimated the degree to which the annual spatial autocorrelations in density are influenced by temperature. Second, we estimated and mapped the local effects of temperature and strength of density dependence on annual changes in density. Finally, we measured the relative effects of temperature and density dependence on the spatial synchrony in changes in density. Temperature influenced the annual spatial autocorrelation in density more in species with greater affinities to the benthos and to warmer waters. Temperature correlated positively with changes in density in the eastern Barents Sea for most species. Temperature had a weak synchronizing effect on density dynamics, while increasing strength of density dependence consistently desynchronised the dynamics. Quantifying the relative effects of different processes affecting population synchrony is important to better predict how population dynamics might change when environmental conditions change. Here, high degrees of spatial synchrony in the population dynamics remained unexplained by local temperature and density dependence, confirming the presence of additional synchronizing drivers, such as trophic interactions or harvesting.

Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Spatial population synchrony is common among populations of the same species and is an important predictor of extinction risk. Despite the potential consequences for metapopulation persistence, we still largely lack understanding of what makes one species more likely to be synchronized than another given the same environmental conditions. Generally, environmental conditions in a shared environment or a species' sensitivity to the environment can explain the extent of synchrony. Populations that are closer together experience more similar fluctuations in their environments than those populations that are further apart and are therefore more synchronized. The relative importance of environmental and demographic stochasticity for population dynamics is strongly linked to species' life-history traits, such as pace of life, which may impact population synchrony. For populations that migrate, there may be multiple environmental conditions at different locations driving synchrony. However, the importance of life history and migration tactics in determining patterns of spatial population synchrony have rarely been explored empirically. We therefore hypothesize that increasing generation time, a proxy for pace of life, would decrease spatial population synchrony and that migrants would be less synchronized than resident species. We used population abundance data on breeding birds from four countries to investigate patterns of spatial population synchrony in growth rate and abundance. We calculated the mean spatial population synchrony between log-transformed population growth rates or log-transformed abundances for each species and country separately. We investigated differences in synchrony across generation times in resident (n = 67), short-distance migrant (n = 86) and long-distance migrant (n = 39) bird species. Species with shorter generation times were more synchronized than species with longer generation times. Short-distance migrants were more synchronized than long-distance migrants and resident birds. Our results provide novel empirical links between spatial population synchrony and species traits known to be of key importance for population dynamics, generation time and migration tactics. We show how these different mechanisms can be combined to understand species-specific causes of spatial population synchrony. Understanding these specific drivers of spatial population synchrony is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.

Scale of population synchrony confirms macroecological estimates of minimum viable range size

Global ecosystems are facing a deepening biodiversity crisis, necessitating robust approaches to quantifying species extinction risk. The lower limit of the macroecological relationship between species range and body size has long been hypothesized as an estimate of the relationship between the minimum viable range size (MVRS) needed for species persistence and the organismal traits that affect space and resource requirements. Here, we perform the first explicit test of this assumption by confronting the MVRS predicted by the range-body size relationship with an independent estimate based on the scale of synchrony in abundance among spatially separated populations of riverine fish. We provide clear evidence of a positive relationship between the scale of synchrony and species body size, and strong support for the MVRS set by the lower limit of the range-body size macroecological relationship. This MVRS may help prioritize first evaluations for unassessed or data-deficient taxa in global conservation assessments.

Determinants of haemosporidian single- and co-infection risks in western palearctic birds

Understanding the drivers of infection risk helps us to detect the most at-risk species in a community and identify species whose intrinsic characteristics could act as potential reservoirs of pathogens. This knowledge is crucial if we are to predict the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases. To date, most studies have only focused on infections caused by a single parasite, leaving out co-infections. Yet, co-infections are of paramount importance in understanding the ecology and evolution of host-parasite interactions due to the wide range of effects they can have on host fitness and on the evolutionary trajectories of parasites. Here, we used a multinomial Bayesian phylogenetic modelling framework to explore the extent to which bird ecology and phylogeny impact the probability of being infected by one genus (hereafter single infection) or by multiple genera (hereafter co-infection) of haemosporidian parasites. We show that while nesting and migration behaviors influenced both the probability of being single- and co-infected, species position along the slow-fast life-history continuum and geographic range size were only pertinent in explaining variation in co-infection risk. We also found evidence for a phylogenetic conservatism regarding both single- and co-infections, indicating that phylogenetically related bird species tend to have similar infection patterns. This phylogenetic signal was four times stronger for co-infections than for single infections, suggesting that co-infections may act as a stronger selective pressure than single infections. Overall, our study underscores the combined influence of hosts' evolutionary history and attributes in determining infection risk in avian host communities. These results also suggest that co-infection risk might be under stronger deterministic control than single infection risk, potentially paving the way toward a better understanding of the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases.

Age-dependent patterns of spatial autocorrelation in fish populations

The degree of spatial autocorrelation in population fluctuations increases with dispersal and geographical covariation in the environment, and decreases with strength of density dependence. Because the effects of these processes can vary throughout an individual's lifespan, we studied how spatial autocorrelation in abundance changed with age in three marine fish species in the Barents Sea. We found large interspecific differences in age-dependent patterns of spatial autocorrelation in density. Spatial autocorrelation increased with age in cod, the reverse trend was found in beaked redfish, while it remained constant among age classes in haddock. We also accounted for the average effect of local cohort dynamics, i.e. the expected local density of an age class given last year's local density of the cohort, with the goal of disentangling spatial autocorrelation patterns acting on an age class from those formed during younger age classes and being carried over. We found that the spatial autocorrelation pattern of older age classes became increasingly determined by the distribution of the cohort during the previous year. Lastly, we found high degrees of autocorrelation over long distances for the three species, suggesting the presence of far-reaching autocorrelating processes on these populations. We discuss how differences in the species' life history strategies could cause the observed differences in age-specific variation in spatial autocorrelation. As spatial autocorrelation can differ among age classes, our study indicates that fluctuations in age structure can influence the spatio-temporal variation in abundance of marine fish populations.

Changing climate associated with the range-wide decline of an estuarine finfish

Southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma) are a coastal flatfish species that supports recreational and commercial fisheries but are currently experiencing range-wide declines. To quantify the range-wide declines and investigate the role of climate in these declines, fishery-independent sampling data of age-0 flounder were obtained from 34 estuaries representing four states in the Gulf of Mexico (TX, LA, AL, and FL) and three states in the Southeastern United States Atlantic Ocean (FL, SC, and NC) spanning from 1976 to 2019. Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to estimate age-0 recruitment trends. Spatial and temporal synchrony analyses were then conducted using annual GAM-predicted values to determine if trends were similar between estuaries in close proximity, and if declines occurred at the same time. Because the species is dependent on physical transport (i.e., winds and tides) for recruitment, hourly wind speed, wind direction, water temperature, and air temperature were obtained for estuaries with non-zero sampling totals and long-term data sets. Only six estuaries showed significant relationships between age-0 flounder indices and growing degree days. However, all estuaries with wind data showed significant relationships between age-0 flounder indices and hourly summed wind speed. Southern flounder also have environmental sex determination, meaning warming estuaries could also account for population changes and declines. We document that water temperatures in the same space and time where southern flounder sexually determine are warmer now than even a decade ago, which could masculinize populations and substantially change population demographics. These results illustrate the vulnerability of estuarine finfish populations to climate change and increased climate variability. Understanding how climate acts on southern flounder biology may help managers respond to and prevent fishery collapses.

Relative Abundance and Invasion Dynamics of Alien Fish Species Linked to Chemical Conditions, Ecosystem Health, Native Fish Assemblage, and Stream Order

The incidence and dispersal of invasive alien fish species (IAFS) have ecological impacts on biodiversity and environmental health at regional to global scales. We identified links between the presence of largemouth bass (Lb) and bluegill (Bg), and selected indicators of environmental water quality, trophic and tolerance guilds, ecological health factors, and stream order. We used the data collected from national biomonitoring study sites in four major rivers of South Korea. IAFS occurred in eutrophic waters (Lb = total phosphorus: 140 ± 170 µg/L, chlorophyll a: 16.7 ± 27.5 µg/L; Bg = total phosphorus: 160 ± 190 µg/L, chlorophyll a: 19.43 ± 28.05 µg/L) and dominated at higher ambient ratios of total nitrogen to total phosphorus (TN:TP). At TN:TP ≤ 100, the relative abundance of Lb and Bg was highest (95.3% and 96.0%, respectively). Concerning tolerance guilds, Lb (R2 = 0.78, p < 0.0001) and Bg (R2 = 0.59, p < 0.0001) had positive relationships with tolerant species in all four river watersheds and negative relationships with the percentages of insectivores and omnivores. This indicates the harmful impacts of IAFS on the aquatic food web. These invasive fish species also influenced stream health, particularly in the Nakdong and Yeongsan/Seomjin rivers. Our findings suggest that assessing chemical water quality can help identify the optimal and suboptimal survival and spread ranges of IAFS (Lb and Bg), as they directly influence tolerance and trophic guilds in the aquatic food web. In conclusion, these IAFS could be a major factor in the deteriorating ecosystem health, which had negative relationships with the abundance and occurrence of IAFS. Therefore, approaches that use appropriate water chemistry factors and species tolerance may provide critical insights into the efficient management of river health that has been perturbed by the presence of IAFS.

Mediterranean nekton traits: distribution, relationships and significance for marine ecology monitoring and management

Biological traits are increasingly used in order to study aspects of ecology as they are related to the organisms' fitness. Here we analyze a dataset of 23 traits regarding the life cycle, distribution, ecology and behavior of 235 nektonic species of the Mediterranean Sea in order to evaluate the distribution of traits, identify rare ones, detect relationships between trait pairs and identify species functional groups. Trait relationships were tested using correlation and non-linear regression for continuous traits, parametric and non-parametric inference tests for pairs of continuous-categorical traits and cooccurrence testing for categorical traits. The findings have significant implications concerning the potential effects of climate change (e.g., through the relationships of the trait of optimal temperature), fisheries or habitat loss (from the relationships of traits related to tolerance ranges). Furthermore, some unexpected relationships are documented, like the inversely proportional relationship between longevity and age at maturity as a percentage of life span. Associations between functional traits show affinities derived from phylogenetic constraints or life strategies; however, relationships among functional and ecological traits can indicate the potential environmental filtering that acts on functional traits. In total, 18 functional groups were identified by Hill-Smith ordination and hierarchical clustering and were characterized by their dominant traits. For the assessment of the results, we first evaluate the importance of each trait at the level of population, community, ecosystem and landscape and then propose the traits that should be monitored for the regulation and resilience of ecosystem functioning and the management of the marine ecosystems.