1
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Rogers TL, Bashevkin SM, Burdi CE, Colombano DD, Dudley PN, Mahardja B, Mitchell L, Perry S, Saffarinia P. Evaluating top-down, bottom-up, and environmental drivers of pelagic food web dynamics along an estuarine gradient. Ecology 2024; 105:e4274. [PMID: 38419360 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Revised: 09/01/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
Identification of the key biotic and abiotic drivers within food webs is important for understanding species abundance changes in ecosystems, particularly across ecotones where there may be strong variation in interaction strengths. Using structural equation models (SEMs) and four decades of integrated data from the San Francisco Estuary, we investigated the relative effects of top-down, bottom-up, and environmental drivers on multiple trophic levels of the pelagic food web along an estuarine salinity gradient and at both annual and monthly temporal resolutions. We found that interactions varied across the estuarine gradient and that the detectability of different interactions depended on timescale. For example, for zooplankton and estuarine fishes, bottom-up effects appeared to be stronger in the freshwater upstream regions, while top-down effects were stronger in the brackish downstream regions. Some relationships (e.g., bottom-up effects of phytoplankton on zooplankton) were seen primarily at annual timescales, whereas others (e.g., temperature effects) were only observed at monthly timescales. We also found that the net effect of environmental drivers was similar to or greater than bottom-up and top-down effects for all food web components. These findings can help identify which trophic levels or environmental factors could be targeted by management actions to have the greatest impact on estuarine forage fishes and the spatial and temporal scale at which responses might be observed. More broadly, this study highlights how environmental gradients can structure community interactions and how long-term data sets can be leveraged to generate insights across multiple scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tanya L Rogers
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Samuel M Bashevkin
- Delta Science Program, Delta Stewardship Council, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Christina E Burdi
- California Department of Fish and Wildlife, Stockton, California, USA
| | - Denise D Colombano
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Peter N Dudley
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, USA
- Fisheries Collaborative Program, Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | | | - Lara Mitchell
- Lodi Fish and Wildlife Office, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lodi, California, USA
| | - Sarah Perry
- California Department of Water Resources, West Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Parsa Saffarinia
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
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2
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Vollert SA, Drovandi C, Adams MP. Unlocking ensemble ecosystem modelling for large and complex networks. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011976. [PMID: 38483981 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 03/27/2024] Open
Abstract
The potential effects of conservation actions on threatened species can be predicted using ensemble ecosystem models by forecasting populations with and without intervention. These model ensembles commonly assume stable coexistence of species in the absence of available data. However, existing ensemble-generation methods become computationally inefficient as the size of the ecosystem network increases, preventing larger networks from being studied. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach for ensemble generation that is orders of magnitude faster than existing approaches. We demonstrate that the methods produce equivalent parameter inferences, model predictions, and tightly constrained parameter combinations using a novel sensitivity analysis method. For one case study, we demonstrate a speed-up from 108 days to 6 hours, while maintaining equivalent ensembles. Additionally, we demonstrate how to identify the parameter combinations that strongly drive feasibility and stability, drawing ecological insight from the ensembles. Now, for the first time, larger and more realistic networks can be practically simulated and analysed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah A Vollert
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Christopher Drovandi
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Matthew P Adams
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Australia
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3
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Monsalve-Bravo GM, Lawson BAJ, Drovandi C, Burrage K, Brown KS, Baker CM, Vollert SA, Mengersen K, McDonald-Madden E, Adams MP. Analysis of sloppiness in model simulations: Unveiling parameter uncertainty when mathematical models are fitted to data. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabm5952. [PMID: 36129974 PMCID: PMC9491719 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm5952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 08/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This work introduces a comprehensive approach to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameter values, constrained by the combination of prior beliefs and data. This approach identifies stiff parameter combinations strongly affecting the quality of the model-data fit while simultaneously revealing which of these key parameter combinations are informed primarily by the data or are also substantively influenced by the priors. We focus on the very common context in complex systems where the amount and quality of data are low compared to the number of model parameters to be collectively estimated, and showcase the benefits of this technique for applications in biochemistry, ecology, and cardiac electrophysiology. We also show how stiff parameter combinations, once identified, uncover controlling mechanisms underlying the system being modeled and inform which of the model parameters need to be prioritized in future experiments for improved parameter inference from collective model-data fitting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gloria M. Monsalve-Bravo
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
- School of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Brodie A. J. Lawson
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Plant Success in Nature and Agriculture, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
| | - Christopher Drovandi
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
| | - Kevin Burrage
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Plant Success in Nature and Agriculture, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QD, UK
| | - Kevin S. Brown
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
- Department of Chemical, Biological, & Environmental Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Christopher M. Baker
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
- Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Sarah A. Vollert
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
| | - Kerrie Mengersen
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
| | - Eve McDonald-Madden
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Matthew P. Adams
- School of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
- Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
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4
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Clark‐Wolf TJ, Hahn PG, Brelsford E, Francois J, Hayes N, Larkin B, Ramsey P, Pearson DE. Preventing a series of unfortunate events: using qualitative models to improve conservation. J Appl Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- T. J. Clark‐Wolf
- Wildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation University of Montana Missoula, MT 59812 USA
- Current Address: Center for Ecosystem Sentinels, Department of Biology University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195 USA
| | - Philip G. Hahn
- Department of Entomology and Nematology University of Florida Gainesville, FL 32608 USA
| | - Eric Brelsford
- Stamen, 2017 Mission St Suite 300 San Francisco, CA 94110 USA
| | - Jaleen Francois
- Stamen, 2017 Mission St Suite 300 San Francisco, CA 94110 USA
| | - Nicolette Hayes
- Stamen, 2017 Mission St Suite 300 San Francisco, CA 94110 USA
| | - Beau Larkin
- MPG Ranch, 19400 Lower Woodchuck Road Florence, MT 59833 USA
| | - Philip Ramsey
- MPG Ranch, 19400 Lower Woodchuck Road Florence, MT 59833 USA
| | - Dean E. Pearson
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Missoula, MT 59801 USA
- Division of Biological Sciences University of Montana Missoula, MT 59812 USA
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5
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Wood SLR, Martins KT, Dumais-Lalonde V, Tanguy O, Maure F, St-Denis A, Rayfield B, Martin AE, Gonzalez A. Missing Interactions: The Current State of Multispecies Connectivity Analysis. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.830822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Designing effective habitat and protected area networks, which sustain species-rich communities is a critical conservation challenge. Recent decades have witnessed the emergence of new computational methods for analyzing and prioritizing the connectivity needs of multiple species. We argue that the goal of prioritizing habitat for multispecies connectivity should be focused on long-term persistence of a set of species in a landscape or seascape. Here we present a review of the literature based on 77 papers published between 2010 and 2020, in which we assess the current state and recent advances in multispecies connectivity analysis in terrestrial ecosystems. We summarize the four most employed analytical methods, compare their data requirements, and provide an overview of studies comparing results from multiple methods. We explicitly look at approaches for integrating multiple species considerations into reserve design and identify novel approaches being developed to overcome computational and theoretical challenges posed by multispecies connectivity analyses. There is a lack of common metrics for multispecies connectivity. We suggest the index of metapopulation capacity as one metric by which to assess and compare the effectiveness of proposed network designs. We conclude that, while advances have been made over the past decade, the field remains nascent by its ability to integrate multiple species interactions into analytical approaches to connectivity. Furthermore, the field is hampered its ability to provide robust connectivity assessments for lack of a clear definition and goal for multispecies connectivity conservation.
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6
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Turschwell MP, Connolly SR, Schäfer RB, De Laender F, Campbell MD, Mantyka-Pringle C, Jackson MC, Kattwinkel M, Sievers M, Ashauer R, Côté IM, Connolly RM, van den Brink PJ, Brown CJ. Interactive effects of multiple stressors vary with consumer interactions, stressor dynamics and magnitude. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1483-1496. [PMID: 35478314 PMCID: PMC9320941 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Predicting the impacts of multiple stressors is important for informing ecosystem management but is impeded by a lack of a general framework for predicting whether stressors interact synergistically, additively or antagonistically. Here, we use process-based models to study how interactions generalise across three levels of biological organisation (physiological, population and consumer-resource) for a two-stressor experiment on a seagrass model system. We found that the same underlying processes could result in synergistic, additive or antagonistic interactions, with interaction type depending on initial conditions, experiment duration, stressor dynamics and consumer presence. Our results help explain why meta-analyses of multiple stressor experimental results have struggled to identify predictors of consistently non-additive interactions in the natural environment. Experiments run over extended temporal scales, with treatments across gradients of stressor magnitude, are needed to identify the processes that underpin how stressors interact and provide useful predictions to management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mischa P Turschwell
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, School of Environment and Science, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Sean R Connolly
- Naos Marine Laboratories, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa Ancón, Republic of Panama.,College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
| | - Ralf B Schäfer
- Quantitative Landscape Ecology, iES-Institute for Environmental Sciences, University Koblenz-Landau, Landau in der Pfalz, Germany
| | - Frederik De Laender
- Research Unit of Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, Namur Institute of Complex Systems and Institute of Life, Earth, and the Environment, University of Namur, Namur, Belgium
| | - Max D Campbell
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, School of Environment and Science, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Chrystal Mantyka-Pringle
- Wildlife Conservation Society Canada, Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada.,School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | | | - Mira Kattwinkel
- Quantitative Landscape Ecology, iES-Institute for Environmental Sciences, University Koblenz-Landau, Landau in der Pfalz, Germany
| | - Michael Sievers
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, School of Environment and Science, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Roman Ashauer
- Environment Department, University of York, York, UK.,Syngenta Crop Protection AG, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Isabelle M Côté
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Rod M Connolly
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, School of Environment and Science, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Paul J van den Brink
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.,Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Christopher J Brown
- Coastal and Marine Research Centre, School of Environment and Science, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
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7
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Plein M, O'Brien KR, Holden MH, Adams MP, Baker CM, Bean NG, Sisson SA, Bode M, Mengersen KL, McDonald‐Madden E. Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data-poor island ecosystem. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13916. [PMID: 35352431 PMCID: PMC9804458 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2020] [Revised: 12/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Data hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in many systems, which have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. Here we demonstrate a different approach, using a minimum realistic model to guide decisions in data- and resource-scarce systems. We illustrate our approach with a case-study in an invaded ecosystem from Christmas Island, Australia, where there are concerns that cat eradication to protect native species, including the red-tailed tropicbird, could release meso-predation by invasive rats. We use biophysical constraints (metabolic demand) and observable parameters (e.g. prey preferences) to assess the combined cat and rat abundances which would threaten the tropicbird population. We find that the population of tropicbirds cannot be sustained if predated by 1607 rats (95% credible interval (CI) [103, 5910]) in the absence of cats, or 21 cats (95% CI [2, 82]) in the absence of rats. For every cat removed from the island, the bird's net population growth rate improves, provided that the rats do not increase by more than 77 individuals (95% CI [30, 174]). Thus, in this context, one cat is equivalent to 30-174 rats. Our methods are especially useful for on-the-ground predator control in the absence of knowledge of predator-predator interactions, to assess whether 1) the current abundance of predators threatens the prey population of interest, 2) managing one predator species alone is sufficient to protect the prey species given potential release of another predator, and 3) control of multiple predator species is needed to meet the conservation goal. Our approach demonstrates how to use limited information for maximum value in data-poor systems, by shifting the focus from predicting future trajectories, to identifying conditions which threaten the conservation goal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michaela Plein
- School of Earth and Environmental ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
- Administration de la nature et des forêtsDiekirchLuxembourg
| | - Katherine R. O'Brien
- School of Chemical EngineeringUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
| | - Matthew H. Holden
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
- School of Mathematics and PhysicsUniversity of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Matthew P. Adams
- School of Earth and Environmental ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
- School of Chemical EngineeringUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
- School of Mathematical SciencesQueensland University of TechnologyBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical FrontiersQueensland University of, TechnologyBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Christopher M. Baker
- School of Mathematics and StatisticsThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoriaAustralia
- Melbourne Centre for Data ScienceThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoriaAustralia
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk AnalysisThe University of MelbourneMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Nigel G. Bean
- School of Mathematical SciencesUniversity of AdelaideAdelaideSouth AustraliaAustralia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical FrontiersUniversity of AdelaideAdelaideSouth AustraliaAustralia
| | - Scott A. Sisson
- School of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNew South WalesAustralia
- UNSW Data Science HubUniversity of New SouthWales, SydneyNew South WalesAustralia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Mathematical SciencesQueensland University of TechnologyBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Kerrie L. Mengersen
- School of Mathematical SciencesQueensland University of TechnologyBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical FrontiersQueensland University of, TechnologyBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Eve McDonald‐Madden
- School of Earth and Environmental ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaQueenslandAustralia
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8
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Pearson DE, Clark TJ, Hahn PG. Evaluating unintended consequences of intentional species introductions and eradications for improved conservation management. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13734. [PMID: 33734489 PMCID: PMC9291768 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2020] [Revised: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 03/05/2021] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Increasingly intensive strategies to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function are being deployed in response to global anthropogenic threats, including intentionally introducing and eradicating species via assisted migration, rewilding, biological control, invasive species eradications, and gene drives. These actions are highly contentious because of their potential for unintended consequences. We conducted a global literature review of these conservation actions to quantify how often unintended outcomes occur and to elucidate their underlying causes. To evaluate conservation outcomes, we developed a community assessment framework for systematically mapping the range of possible interaction types for 111 case studies. Applying this tool, we quantified the number of interaction types considered in each study and documented the nature and strength of intended and unintended outcomes. Intended outcomes were reported in 51% of cases, a combination of intended outcomes and unintended outcomes in 26%, and strictly unintended outcomes in 10%. Hence, unintended outcomes were reported in 36% of all cases evaluated. In evaluating overall conservations outcomes (weighing intended vs. unintended effects), some unintended effects were fairly innocuous relative to the conservation objective, whereas others resulted in serious unintended consequences in recipient communities. Studies that assessed a greater number of community interactions with the target species reported unintended outcomes more often, suggesting that unintended consequences may be underreported due to insufficient vetting. Most reported unintended outcomes arose from direct effects (68%) or simple density-mediated or indirect effects (25%) linked to the target species. Only a few documented cases arose from more complex interaction pathways (7%). Therefore, most unintended outcomes involved simple interactions that could be predicted and mitigated through more formal vetting. Our community assessment framework provides a tool for screening future conservation actions by mapping the recipient community interaction web to identify and mitigate unintended outcomes from intentional species introductions and eradications for conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dean E. Pearson
- Rocky Mountain Research StationU.S. Department of Agriculture Forest ServiceMissoulaMontanaUSA
- Division of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMontanaUSA
| | - Tyler J. Clark
- Wildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and ConservationUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMontanaUSA
| | - Philip G. Hahn
- Department of Entomology and NematologyUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFloridaUSA
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9
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Bodner K, Rauen Firkowski C, Bennett JR, Brookson C, Dietze M, Green S, Hughes J, Kerr J, Kunegel‐Lion M, Leroux SJ, McIntire E, Molnár PK, Simpkins C, Tekwa E, Watts A, Fortin M. Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision making. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Korryn Bodner
- Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Toronto Toronto Ontario Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Toronto Scarborough Toronto Ontario Canada
| | - Carina Rauen Firkowski
- Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Toronto Toronto Ontario Canada
- Department of Biology McGill University Montreal Quebec Canada
| | | | - Cole Brookson
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Michael Dietze
- Department of Earth & Environment Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA
| | - Stephanie Green
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Josie Hughes
- National Wildlife Research Centre Environment and Climate Change Canada Ottawa Ontario Canada
| | - Jeremy Kerr
- Department of Biology University of Ottawa Ottawa Ontario Canada
| | - Mélodie Kunegel‐Lion
- Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Centre Natural Resources Canada Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Shawn J. Leroux
- Department of Biology Memorial University of Newfoundland St. John’s Newfoundland Canada
| | - Eliot McIntire
- Canadian Forest Service Pacific Forestry Centre Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
- Faculty of Forestry Forest Resources Management University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Péter K. Molnár
- Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Toronto Toronto Ontario Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Toronto Scarborough Toronto Ontario Canada
| | - Craig Simpkins
- School of Environment University of Auckland Auckland New Zealand
- Department of Biology Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo Ontario Canada
- Department of Ecological Modelling Georg‐August University of Goettingen Goettingen Germany
| | - Edward Tekwa
- Department of Zoology University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | | | - Marie‐Josée Fortin
- Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Toronto Toronto Ontario Canada
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10
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Predicting the sign of trophic effects: individual-based simulation versus loop analysis. COMMUNITY ECOL 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s42974-021-00068-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
AbstractFood web research needs to be predictive in order to support decisions system-based conservation. In order to increase predictability and applicability, complexity needs to be managed in such a way that we are able to provide simple and clear results. One question emerging frequently is whether certain perturbations (environmental effects or human impact) have positive or negative effects on natural ecosystems or their particular components. Yet, most of food web studies do not consider the sign of effects. Here, we study 6 versions of the Kelian River (Borneo) food web, representing six study sites along the river. For each network, we study the signs of the effects of a perturbed trophic group i on each other j groups. We compare the outcome of the relatively complicated dynamical simulation model and the relatively simple loop analysis model. We compare these results for the 6 sites and also the 14 trophic groups. Finally, we see if sign-agreement and sign-determinacy depend on certain structural features (node centrality, interaction strength). We found major differences between different modelling scenarios, with herbivore-detritivore fish behaving in the most consistent, while algae and particulate organic matter behaving in the least consistent way. We also found higher agreement between the signs of predictions for trophic groups at higher trophic levels in sites 1–3 and at lower trophic levels in site 4–6. This means that the behaviour of predators in the more natural sections of the river and that of producers at the more human-impacted sections are more consistently predicted. This suggests to be more careful with the less consistently predictable trophic groups in conservation management.
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11
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Refocusing multiple stressor research around the targets and scales of ecological impacts. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 5:1478-1489. [PMID: 34556829 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01547-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2020] [Accepted: 08/01/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-interacting stressors at one or few scales of ecological organization. This is concerning because it could lead to significant underestimations or overestimations of threats to biodiversity. Furthermore, stressors have been largely classified by their source rather than by the mechanisms and ecological scales at which they act (the target). Here, we argue, first, that a more nuanced classification of stressors by target and ecological scale can generate valuable new insights and hypotheses about stressor interactions. Second, that the predictability of multiple stressor effects, and consistent patterns in their impacts, can be evaluated by examining the distribution of stressor effects across targets and ecological scales. Third, that a variety of existing mechanistic and statistical modelling tools can play an important role in our framework and advance multiple stressor research.
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12
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Peterson KA, Barnes MD, Jeynes‐Smith C, Cowen S, Gibson L, Sims C, Baker CM, Bode M. Reconstructing lost ecosystems: A risk analysis framework for planning multispecies reintroductions under severe uncertainty. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Katie A. Peterson
- School of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Qld Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
- National Socio‐Environmental Synthesis Center University of Maryland Annapolis MD USA
| | - Megan D. Barnes
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Perth WA Australia
| | - Cailan Jeynes‐Smith
- School of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Qld Australia
| | - Saul Cowen
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Perth WA Australia
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia Perth WA Australia
| | - Lesley Gibson
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Perth WA Australia
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia Perth WA Australia
| | - Colleen Sims
- Biodiversity and Conservation Science Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions Perth WA Australia
| | - Christopher M. Baker
- School of Mathematics and Statistics The University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. Australia
- Melbourne Centre for Data Science The University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. Australia
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis The University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Qld Australia
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Bodner K, Brimacombe C, Chenery ES, Greiner A, McLeod AM, Penk SR, Vargas Soto JS. Ten simple rules for tackling your first mathematical models: A guide for graduate students by graduate students. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1008539. [PMID: 33444343 PMCID: PMC7808623 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Korryn Bodner
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Chris Brimacombe
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Emily S. Chenery
- Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ariel Greiner
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Anne M. McLeod
- Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada
| | - Stephanie R. Penk
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Juan S. Vargas Soto
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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14
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Baker CM, Bode M. Recent advances of quantitative modeling to support invasive species eradication on islands. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M. Baker
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
- Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology Brisbane Queensland Australia
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15
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A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 4:1459-1471. [PMID: 32929239 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01298-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2019] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.
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Saavedra S, Medeiros LP, AlAdwani M. Structural forecasting of species persistence under changing environments. Ecol Lett 2020; 23:1511-1521. [PMID: 32776667 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2020] [Revised: 06/07/2020] [Accepted: 07/08/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
The persistence of a species in a given place not only depends on its intrinsic capacity to consume and transform resources into offspring, but also on how changing environmental conditions affect its growth rate. However, the complexity of factors has typically taken us to choose between understanding and predicting the persistence of species. To tackle this limitation, we propose a probabilistic approach rooted on the statistical concepts of ensemble theory applied to statistical mechanics and on the mathematical concepts of structural stability applied to population dynamics models - what we call structural forecasting. We show how this new approach allows us to estimate a probability of persistence for single species in local communities; to understand and interpret this probability conditional on the information we have concerning a system; and to provide out-of-sample predictions of species persistence as good as the best experimental approaches without the need of extensive amounts of data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Serguei Saavedra
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Av, 02139, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Lucas P Medeiros
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Av, 02139, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Mohammad AlAdwani
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Av, 02139, Cambridge, MA, USA
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