Ecological mechanism of climate-mediated selection in a rapidly evolving invasive species

Enhancing Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Surveillance in New Jersey: Optimized Collection of Culiseta melanura

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes the most clinically severe neuroinvasive arboviral disease in the United States. The virus is endemic in eastern and Gulf Coast states and the Great Lakes region, causing cases annually. To detect EEEV circulation in its enzootic cycle before the virus infects humans and other mammals, mosquito control agencies in New Jersey have conducted mosquito surveillance using a series of permanent wooden resting box sites since 1975. We conducted 2 field studies, 1 evaluating resting traps and 1 evaluating efficacy of CO2 lures, to optimize collection of Culiseta melanura, the primary enzootic vector of EEEV. Resulting mosquito samples were subjected to molecular analysis to determine EEEV infection rates. Corrugated plastic boxes trapped more bloodfed Cs. melanura than other resting trap types (resting boxes, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] resting traps, or fiber pots) and were similar to resting boxes in total number of female Cs. melanura caught. Further, non-baited CDC light traps were more successful in trapping host-seeking Cs. melanura than those baited with dry ice, a CO2 lure. The EEEV RNA was identified in Cs. melanura, Aedes vexans, Anopheles quadrimaculatus, and Uranotaenia sapphirina. Our findings indicate that corrugated plastic boxes and non-CO2 baited traps could improve detection of Cs. melanura. Mosquito control agencies are encouraged to periodically assess their surveillance strategy for EEEV.

Thermal tolerance of mosquito eggs is associated with urban adaptation and human interactions

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect mosquito distributions and their ability to serve as vectors for disease, specifically with the anticipated increase in heat waves. The rising temperature and frequent heat waves can accelerate mosquito life cycles, facilitating higher disease transmission. Conversely, higher temperatures could increase mosquito mortality as a negative consequence. Warmer temperatures are associated with increased human density, suggesting a need for anthropophilic mosquitoes to adapt to be more hardy to heat stress. Mosquito eggs provide an opportunity to study the biological impact of climate warming as this stage is stationary and must tolerate temperatures at the site of female oviposition. As such, egg thermotolerance is critical for survival in a specific habitat. In nature, Aedes mosquitoes exhibit different behavioral phenotypes, where specific populations prefer depositing eggs in tree holes and prefer feeding non-human vertebrates. In contrast, others, particularly human-biting specialists, favor laying eggs in artificial containers near human dwellings. This study examined the thermotolerance of eggs, along with adult stages, for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus lineages associated with known ancestry and shifts in their relationship with humans. Mosquitoes collected from areas with higher human population density, displaying increased human preference, and having a human-associated ancestry profile have increased egg viability following high-temperature stress. Unlike eggs, thermal tolerance among adults showed no significant correlation based on the area of collection or human-associated ancestry. This study highlights that the egg stage is likely critical to mosquito survival when associated with humans and needs to be accounted when predicting future mosquito distribution.

The predicted potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1-2.6

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is one of the 100 most invasive species in the world and represents a significant threat to public health. The distribution of Ae. albopictus has been expanding rapidly due to increased international trade, population movement, global warming and accelerated urbanization. Consequently, it is very important to know the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in advance for early warning and control of its spread and invasion. We randomly selected 282 distribution sites from 27 provincial-level administrative regions in China, and used the GARP and MaxEnt models to analyze and predict the current and future distribution areas of Ae. albopictus in China. The results showed that the current range of Ae. albopictus in China covers most provinces such as Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces, and the distribution of Ae. albopictus in border provinces such as Tibet, Gansu and Jilin Provinces tend to expand westwards. In addition, the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in China will continue to expand westwards due to future climate change under the SSP126 climate scenario. Furthermore, the results of environmental factor filtering showed that temperature and precipitation had a large effect on the distribution probability of Ae. albopictus.

Contrasting effects of an extended fall period and winter heatwaves on the overwintering fitness of diapausing disease vector, Aedes albopictus

Climate change is expected to dramatically alter autumnal and winter conditions in many temperate regions. However, limited data is available to accurately predict how these changes will impact species' overwinter survival and post-winter fitness. Here, we determine how a longer, warmer fall period and winter heatwaves affect overwintering fitness and post-winter performance of the invasive mosquito vector, Aedes albopictus. We found that a longer, warmer fall period representative of early entry into diapause did not affect overwinter survival but did lead to reduced post-winter performance for multiple traits. Specifically, larvae that experienced longer, warmer fall conditions as diapause embryos exhibited reduced post-diapause larval starvation tolerance, increased post-diapause larval mortality, and longer post-diapause larval development compared to individuals from the short-fall treatments. These negative post-diapause fitness effects likely resulted from the greater energetic demands and/or damage incurred during the warmer, longer fall period. In contrast, exposure to winter heatwaves increased overwinter survival, possibly by allowing diapausing embryos to escape or repair cold injury. Finally, fall treatment and winter heatwaves had an interactive effect on male development time, while neither treatment impacted pupal mass in either sex. Overall, our results highlight that experiments that fail to measure post-diapause fitness are likely to substantially under-estimate the impacts of climate change on post-winter performance. Additionally, our results emphasize that it is crucial to consider the potentially conflicting effects of different aspects of climate change on a species' overall overwintering success.

Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.

An ensemble learning approach to map the genetic connectivity of the parasitoid Stethynium empoasca (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae) and identify the key influencing environmental and landscape factors

The effect of landscape patterns and environmental factors on the population structure and genetic diversity of organisms is well-documented. However, this effect is still unclear in the case of Mymaridae parasitoids. Despite recent advances in machine learning methods for landscape genetics, ensemble learning still needs further investigation. Here, we evaluated the performance of different boosting algorithms and analyzed the effects of landscape and environmental factors on the genetic variations in the tea green leafhopper parasitoid Stethynium empoasca (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae). The S. empoasca populations showed a distinct pattern of isolation by distance. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, the coverage of evergreen/deciduous needleleaf trees per 1 km2, and the minimum precipitation of the warmest quarter were identified as the dominant factors affecting the genetic divergence of S. empoasca populations. Notably, compared to previous machine learning studies, our model showed an unprecedented accuracy (r = 0.87) for the prediction of genetic differentiation. These findings not only demonstrated how the landscape shaped S. empoasca genetics but also provided an essential basis for developing conservation strategies for this biocontrol agent. In a broader sense, this study demonstrated the importance and efficiency of ensemble learning in landscape genetics.

Consistent trait-temperature interactions drive butterfly phenology in both incidental and survey data

Data availability limits phenological research at broad temporal and spatial extents. Butterflies are among the few taxa with broad-scale occurrence data, from both incidental reports and formal surveys. Incidental reports have biases that are challenging to address, but structured surveys are often limited seasonally and may not span full flight phenologies. Thus, how these data source compare in phenological analyses is unclear. We modeled butterfly phenology in relation to traits and climate using parallel analyses of incidental and survey data, to explore their shared utility and potential for analytical integration. One workflow aggregated “Pollard” surveys, where sites are visited multiple times per year; the other aggregated incidental data from online portals: iNaturalist and eButterfly. For 40 species, we estimated early (10%) and mid (50%) flight period metrics, and compared the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of phenology across species and between datasets. For both datasets, inter-annual variability was best explained by temperature, and seasonal emergence was earlier for resident species overwintering at more advanced stages. Other traits related to habitat, feeding, dispersal, and voltinism had mixed or no impacts. Our results suggest that data integration can improve phenological research, and leveraging traits may predict phenology in poorly studied species.

Critical Photoperiod and Its Potential to Predict Mosquito Distributions and Control Medically Important Pests

Diapause, a period of arrested development that allows mosquitoes to survive inhospitable conditions, is triggered by short daylengths in temperate mosquitoes. Different populations of mosquitoes initiate diapause in response to a specific photoperiod, or daylength, resulting in population-specific differences in annual cycles of abundance. The photoperiod that causes approximately 50% of a population to initiate diapause is known as the critical photoperiod (CPP). The autumn daylength corresponding to the CPP in the field likely marks the day beyond which the photoperiods would trigger and maintain 50% or more diapause incidence in a population, although temperature, diet, and other factors can impact diapause initiation. In the Northern Hemisphere, northern populations of mosquitoes experience lower temperatures earlier in the year and must be triggered into diapause by longer daylengths than southern populations. CPP is genetically based, but also adapts over time responding to the population's environment. Therefore, CPP has been shown to lengthen with increasing latitude and altitude. While the positive correlation between CPP and latitude/altitude has been established in a few mosquito species, including Aedes albopictus (Skuse, Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes triseriatus, Aedes sierrensis, and Wyeomyia smithii (Coquillett, Diptera: Culicidae), we do not know when most other species initiate their seasonal responses. As several of these species transmit important diseases, characterizing the CPP of arthropod vectors could improve existing control by ensuring that surveillance efforts align with the vector's seasonally active period. Additionally, better understanding when mosquitoes and other vectors initiate diapause can reduce the frequency of chemical applications, thereby ameliorating the negative impacts to nontarget insects.