Understanding the emergence of contingent and deterministic exclusion in multispecies communities

Soil microbial influences over coexistence potential in multispecies plant communities in a subtropical forest

Soil microbes have long been recognized to substantially affect the coexistence of pairwise plant species across terrestrial ecosystems. However, projecting their impacts on the coexistence of multispecies plant systems remains a pressing challenge. To address this challenge, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 540 seedlings of five tree species in a subtropical forest in China and evaluated microbial effects on multispecies coexistence using the structural method, which quantifies how the structure of species interactions influences the likelihood for multiple species to persist. Specifically, we grew seedlings alone or with competitors in different microbial contexts and fitted individual biomass to a population dynamic model to calculate intra- and interspecific interaction strength with and without soil microbes. We then used these interaction structures to calculate two metrics of multispecies coexistence, structural niche differences (which promote coexistence) and structural fitness differences (which drive exclusion), for all possible communities comprising two to five plant species. We found that soil microbes generally increased both the structural niche and fitness differences across all communities, with a much stronger effect on structural fitness differences. A further examination of functional traits between plant species pairs found that trait differences are stronger predictors of structural niche differences than of structural fitness differences, and that soil microbes have the potential to change trait-mediated plant interactions. Our findings underscore that soil microbes strongly influence the coexistence of multispecies plant systems, and also add to the experimental evidence that the influence is more on fitness differences rather than on niche differences.

Time-dependent interaction modification generated from plant-soil feedback

Pairwise interactions between species can be modified by other community members, leading to emergent dynamics contingent on community composition. Despite the prevalence of such higher-order interactions, little is known about how they are linked to the timing and order of species' arrival. We generate population dynamics from a mechanistic plant-soil feedback model, then apply a general theoretical framework to show that the modification of a pairwise interaction by a third plant depends on its germination phenology. These time-dependent interaction modifications emerge from concurrent changes in plant and microbe populations and are strengthened by higher overlap between plants' associated microbiomes. The interaction between this overlap and the specificity of microbiomes further determines plant coexistence. Our framework is widely applicable to mechanisms in other systems from which similar time-dependent interaction modifications can emerge, highlighting the need to integrate temporal shifts of species interactions to predict the emergent dynamics of natural communities.

Parameter Sensitivity of Transient Community Dynamics

AbstractTransient dynamics have always intrigued ecologists, but current rapid environmental change (inducing transients even in previously undisturbed systems) has highlighted their importance more than ever. Here, I introduce a method for analyzing the sensitivity of transient ecological dynamics to parameter perturbations. The question the method answers is: how would the community dynamics have unfolded for some time horizon had the parameters been slightly different? I apply the method to three empirically parameterized models: competition between native forbs and exotic grasses in California, a host-parasitoid system, and an experimental chemostat predator-prey model. These applications showcase the ecological insights one can gain from models using transient sensitivity analysis. First, one can find parameters and their combinations whose perturbations disproportionately affect a system. Second, one can identify particular windows of time during which the predicted deviation from the unperturbed trajectories is especially large and utilize this information for management purposes. Third, there is an inverse relationship between transient and long-term sensitivities whenever the interacting populations are ecologically similar; paradoxically, the smaller the immediate response of the system, the more extreme its long-term response will be.

A taxonomy of multiple stable states in complex ecological communities

Natural systems are built from multiple interconnected units, making their dynamics, functioning and fragility notoriously hard to predict. A fragility scenario of particular relevance concerns so-called regime shifts: abrupt transitions from healthy to degraded ecosystem states. An explanation for these shifts is that they arise as transitions between alternative stable states, a process that is well-understood in few-species models. However, how multistability upscales with system complexity remains a debated question. Here, we identify that four different multistability regimes generically emerge in models of species-rich communities and other archetypical complex biological systems assuming random interactions. Across the studied models, each regime consistently emerges under a specific interaction scheme and leaves a distinct set of fingerprints in terms of the number of observed states, their species richness and their response to perturbations. Our results help clarify the conditions and types of multistability that can be expected to occur in complex ecological communities.

On the limits to invasion prediction using coexistence outcomes

The dynamics of ecological communities in nature are typically characterized by probabilistic processes involving invasion dynamics. Because of technical challenges, however, the majority of theoretical and experimental studies have focused on coexistence dynamics. Therefore, it has become central to understand the extent to which coexistence outcomes can be used to predict analogous invasion outcomes relevant to systems in nature. Here, we study the limits to this predictability under a geometric and probabilistic Lotka-Volterra framework. We show that while individual survival probability in coexistence dynamics can be fairly closely translated into invader colonization probability in invasion dynamics, the translation is less precise between community persistence and community augmentation, and worse between exclusion probability and replacement probability. These results provide a guiding and testable theoretical framework regarding the translatability of outcomes between coexistence and invasion outcomes when communities are represented by Lotka-Volterra dynamics under environmental uncertainty.

Untangling the complexity of priority effects in multispecies communities

The history of species immigration can dictate how species interact in local communities, thereby causing historical contingency in community assembly. Since immigration history is rarely known, these historical influences, or priority effects, pose a major challenge in predicting community assembly. Here, we provide a graph-based, non-parametric, theoretical framework for understanding the predictability of community assembly as affected by priority effects. To develop this framework, we first show that the diversity of possible priority effects increases super-exponentially with the number of species. We then point out that, despite this diversity, the consequences of priority effects for multispecies communities can be classified into four basic types, each of which reduces community predictability: alternative stable states, alternative transient paths, compositional cycles and the lack of escapes from compositional cycles to stable states. Using a neural network, we show that this classification of priority effects enables accurate explanation of community predictability, particularly when each species immigrates repeatedly. We also demonstrate the empirical utility of our theoretical framework by applying it to two experimentally derived assembly graphs of algal and ciliate communities. Based on these analyses, we discuss how the framework proposed here can help guide experimental investigation of the predictability of history-dependent community assembly.