The combination of apolipoprotein E4, age and Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale improves the prediction of amyloid positron emission tomography status in clinically diagnosed mild cognitive impairment

Predicting amyloid-PET and clinical conversion in apolipoprotein E ε3/ε3 non-demented individuals with multidimensional factors

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 is a well-established risk factor of amyloid-β (Aβ) in Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, because of the high prevalence of APOE ε3, there may be a large number of people with APOE ε3/ε3 who are non-demented and have Aβ pathology. There are limited studies on assessing Aβ status and clinical conversion in the APOE ε3/ε3 non-demented population. Two hundred and ninety-three non-demented individuals with APOE ε3/ε3 from ADNI database were divided into Aβ-positron emission tomography (Aβ-PET) positivity (+) and Aβ-PET negativity (-) groups using cut-off value of >1.11. Stepwise regression searched for a single or multidimensional clinical variables for predicting Aβ-PET (+), and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) assessed the accuracy of the predictive models. The Cox regression model explored the risk factors associated with clinical conversion to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or AD. The results showed that the combination of sex, education, ventricle and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume can accurately predict Aβ-PET status in cognitively normal (CN), and the combination of everyday cognition study partner total (EcogSPTotal) score, age, plasma p-tau 181 and WMH can accurately predict Aβ-PET status in MCI individuals. EcogSPTotal score were independent predictors of clinical conversion to MCI or AD. The findings may provide a non-invasive and effective tool to improve the efficiency of screening Aβ-PET (+), accelerate and reduce costs of AD trial recruitment in future secondary prevention trials or help to select patients at high risk of disease progression in clinical trials.

Gaussian Process-based prediction of memory performance and biomarker status in ageing and Alzheimer's disease-A systematic model evaluation

Neuroimaging markers based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) combined with various other measures (such as genetic covariates, biomarkers, vascular risk factors, neuropsychological tests etc.) might provide useful predictions of clinical outcomes during the progression towards Alzheimer's disease (AD). The use of multiple features in predictive frameworks for clinical outcomes has become increasingly prevalent in AD research. However, many studies do not focus on systematically and accurately evaluating combinations of multiple input features. Hence, the aim of the present work is to explore and assess optimal combinations of various features for MR-based prediction of (1) cognitive status and (2) biomarker positivity with a multi-kernel learning Gaussian process framework. The explored features and parameters included (A) combinations of brain tissues, modulation, smoothing, and image resolution; (B) incorporating demographics & clinical covariates; (C) the impact of the size of the training data set; (D) the influence of dimensionality reduction and the choice of kernel types. The approach was tested in a large German cohort including 959 subjects from the multicentric longitudinal study of cognitive impairment and dementia (DELCODE). Our evaluation suggests the best prediction of memory performance was obtained for a combination of neuroimaging markers, demographics, genetic information (ApoE4) and CSF biomarkers explaining 57% of outcome variance in out-of-sample predictions. The highest performance for Aβ42/40 status classification was achieved for a combination of demographics, ApoE4, and a memory score while usage of structural MRI further improved the classification of individual patient's pTau status.

APOE genotype and sex modulate Alzheimer's disease pathology in aged EFAD transgenic mice

Increasing evidence supports that age, APOE and sex interact to modulate Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk, however the underlying pathways are unclear. One way that AD risk factors may modulate cognition is by impacting amyloid beta (Aβ) accumulation as plaques, and/or neuroinflammation Therefore, the goal of the present study was to evaluate the extent to which age, APOE and sex modulate Aβ pathology, neuroinflammation and behavior in vivo. To achieve this goal, we utilized the EFAD mice, which express human APOE3 or APOE4 and have five familial AD mutations (FAD) that result in Aβ42 overproduction. We assessed Aβ levels, reactive glia and Morris water maze performance in 6-, 10-, 14-, and 18-month-old EFAD mice. Female APOE4 mice had the highest Aβ deposition, fibrillar amyloid deposits and neuroinflammation as well as earlier behavior deficits. Interestingly, we found that female APOE3 mice and male APOE4 mice had similar levels of pathology. Collectively our data support that the combination of APOE4 and female sex is the most detrimental combination for AD, and that at older ages, female sex may be equivalent to APOE4 genotype.

Detection of Tau-PET Positivity in Clinically Diagnosed Mild Cognitive Impairment with Multidimensional Features

BACKGROUND

The way to evaluate brain tau pathology in vivo is tau positron emission tomography (tau-PET) or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis. In the clinically diagnosed mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a significant proportion of tau-PET are negative. Interest in less expensive and convenient ways to detect tau pathology in Alzheimer's disease has increased due to the high cost of tau-PET and the invasiveness of lumbar puncture, which typically slows down the cost and enrollment of clinical trials.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate one simple and effective method in predicting tau-PET status in MCI individuals.

METHODS

The sample included 154 individuals which were dichotomized into tau-PET (+) and tau-PET (-) using a cut-off of >1.33. We used stepwise regression to select the unitary or combination of variables that best predicted tau-PET. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to assess the accuracy of single and multiple clinical markers.

RESULTS

The combined performance of three variables [Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale 13 (ADAS-Cog13), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), ADNI-Memory summary score (ADNI-MEM)] in neurocognitive measures demonstrated good predictive accuracy of tau-PET status [accuracy = 85.7%, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.879]. The combination of clinical markers model (APOEɛ4, neurocognitive measures and structural MRI imaging of middle temporal) had the best discriminative power (AUC = 0.946).

CONCLUSION

As a noninvasive test, the combination of APOEɛ4, neurocognitive measures and structural MRI imaging of middle temporal accurately predicts tau-PET status. The finding may provide a non-invasive, cost-effective tool for clinical application in predicting tau pathology among MCI individuals.

How far is the goal of applying β-amyloid in cerebrospinal fluid for clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease with standardization of measurements?

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) β-amyloid (Aβ) is important for early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the cohort distributions and cut-off values have large variation across different analytical assays, kits, and laboratories. In this review, we summarize the cut-off values and diagnostic performance for CSF Aβ1-42 and Aβ1-42/Aβ1-40, and explore the important effect factors. Based on the Alzheimer's Association external quality control program (AAQC program), the peer group coefficient of variation of manual ELISA assays for CSF Aβ1-42 was unsatisfied (>20%). Fully automated platforms with better performance have recently been developed, but still not widely applied. In 2020, the certified reference material (CRM) for CSF Aβ1-42 was launched; however, the AAQC 2021-round results did not show effective improvements. Thus, further development and popularization of CRM for CSF Aβ1-42 and Aβ1-40 are urgently required. Standardizing the diagnostic procedures of AD and related status and the pre-analytical protocols of CSF samples, improving detection performance of analytical assays, and popularizing the application of fully automated platforms are also important for the establishment of uniform cut-off values. Moreover, each laboratory should verify the applicability of uniform cut-off values, and evaluate whether it is necessary to establish its own population- and assay-specific cut-off values.

Impact of Amyloid Pathology in Mild Cognitive Impairment Subjects: The Longitudinal Cognition and Surface Morphometry Data

The amyloid framework forms the central medical theory related to Alzheimer disease (AD), and the in vivo demonstration of amyloid positivity is essential for diagnosing AD. On the basis of a longitudinal cohort design, the study investigated clinical progressive patterns by obtaining cognitive and structural measurements from a group of patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI); the measurements were classified by the positivity (Aβ+) or absence (Aβ-) of the amyloid biomarker. We enrolled 185 patients (64 controls, 121 patients with MCI). The patients with MCI were classified into two groups on the basis of their [¹⁸F]flubetaben or [¹⁸F]florbetapir amyloid positron-emission tomography scan (Aβ+ vs. Aβ-, 67 vs. 54 patients) results. Data from annual cognitive measurements and three-dimensional T1 magnetic resonance imaging scans were used for between-group comparisons. To obtain longitudinal cognitive test scores, generalized estimating equations were applied. A linear mixed effects model was used to compare the time effect of cortical thickness degeneration. The cognitive decline trajectory of the Aβ+ group was obvious, whereas the Aβ- and control groups did not exhibit a noticeable decline over time. The group effects of cortical thickness indicated decreased entorhinal cortex in the Aβ+ group and supramarginal gyrus in the Aβ- group. The topology of neurodegeneration in the Aβ- group was emphasized in posterior cortical regions. A comparison of the changes in the Aβ+ and Aβ- groups over time revealed a higher rate of cortical thickness decline in the Aβ+ group than in the Aβ- group in the default mode network. The Aβ+ and Aβ- groups experienced different APOE ε4 effects. For cortical-cognitive correlations, the regions associated with cognitive decline in the Aβ+ group were mainly localized in the perisylvian and anterior cingulate regions. By contrast, the degenerative topography of Aβ- MCI was scattered. The memory learning curves, cognitive decline patterns, and cortical degeneration topographies of the two MCI groups were revealed to be different, suggesting a difference in pathophysiology. Longitudinal analysis may help to differentiate between these two MCI groups if biomarker access is unavailable in clinical settings.

Machine learning identifies novel markers predicting functional decline in older adults

The ability to carry out instrumental activities of daily living, such as paying bills, remembering appointments and shopping alone decreases with age, yet there are remarkable individual differences in the rate of decline among older adults. Understanding variables associated with a decline in instrumental activities of daily living is critical to providing appropriate intervention to prolong independence. Prior research suggests that cognitive measures, neuroimaging and fluid-based biomarkers predict functional decline. However, a priori selection of variables can lead to the over-valuation of certain variables and exclusion of others that may be predictive. In this study, we used machine learning techniques to select a wide range of baseline variables that best predicted functional decline in two years in individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset. The sample included 398 individuals characterized as cognitively normal or mild cognitive impairment. Support vector machine classification algorithms were used to identify the most predictive modality from five different data modality types (demographics, structural MRI, fluorodeoxyglucose-PET, neurocognitive and genetic/fluid-based biomarkers). In addition, variable selection identified individual variables across all modalities that best predicted functional decline in a testing sample. Of the five modalities examined, neurocognitive measures demonstrated the best accuracy in predicting functional decline (accuracy = 74.2%; area under the curve = 0.77), followed by fluorodeoxyglucose-PET (accuracy = 70.8%; area under the curve = 0.66). The individual variables with the greatest discriminatory ability for predicting functional decline included partner report of language in the Everyday Cognition questionnaire, the ADAS13, and activity of the left angular gyrus using fluorodeoxyglucose-PET. These three variables collectively explained 32% of the total variance in functional decline. Taken together, the machine learning model identified novel biomarkers that may be involved in the processing, retrieval, and conceptual integration of semantic information and which predict functional decline two years after assessment. These findings may be used to explore the clinical utility of the Everyday Cognition as a non-invasive, cost and time effective tool to predict future functional decline.

Machine learning methods to predict amyloid positivity using domain scores from cognitive tests

Amyloid-[Formula: see text] (A[Formula: see text]) is the target in many clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Preclinical AD patients are heterogeneous with regards to different backgrounds and diagnosis. Accurately predicting A[Formula: see text] status of participants by using machine learning (ML) models based on easily accessible data, could improve the effectiveness of AD clinical trials. We will develop optimal ML models for each subpopulation stratified by sex and disease stages using sub scores from screening neurological tests. Data from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) were used to build the ML models, for three groups: individuals with significant memory concern, early mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and late MCI. Data were further separated into 6 groups by disease stage (3 levels) and sex (2 categories). The outcome was defined as the A[Formula: see text] status confirmed by the PET imaging, and the features include demographic data, newly identified risk factors, screening tests, and the domain scores from screening tests. Monte Carlo simulation studies were used together with k-fold cross-validation technique to compute model performance metric. We also develop a new feature selection method based on the stochastic ordering to avoiding searching all possible combinations of features. Accuracy of the identified optimal model for SMC male was over 90% by using domain scores, and accuracy for LMCI female was above 86%. Domain scores can improve the ML model prediction as compared to the total scores. Accurate ML prediction models can identify the proper population for AD clinical trials.

The search for a convenient procedure to detect one of the earliest signs of Alzheimer's disease: A systematic review of the prediction of brain amyloid status

INTRODUCTION

Convenient, cost-effective tests for amyloid beta (Aβ) are needed to identify those at higher risk for developing Alzheimer's disease (AD). This systematic review evaluates recent models that predict dichotomous Aβ. (PROSPERO: CRD42020144734).

METHODS

We searched Embase and identified 73 studies from 29,581 for review. We assessed study quality using established tools, extracted information, and reported results narratively.

RESULTS

We identified few high-quality studies due to concerns about Aβ determination and analytical issues. The most promising convenient, inexpensive classifiers consist of age, apolipoprotein E genotype, cognitive measures, and/or plasma Aβ. Plasma Aβ may be sufficient if pre-analytical variables are standardized and scalable assays developed. Some models lowered costs associated with clinical trial recruitment or clinical screening.

DISCUSSION

Conclusions about models are difficult due to study heterogeneity and quality. Promising prediction models used demographic, cognitive/neuropsychological, imaging, and plasma Aβ measures. Further studies using standardized Aβ determination, and improved model validation are required.

Detecting Alzheimer's disease biomarkers with a brief tablet-based cognitive battery: sensitivity to Aβ and tau PET

Background

β-amyloid (Aβ) and tau positron emission tomography (PET) detect the pathological changes that define Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in living people. Cognitive measures sensitive to Aβ and tau burden may help streamline identification of cases for confirmatory AD biomarker testing.

Methods

We examined the association of Brain Health Assessment (BHA) tablet-based cognitive measures with dichotomized Aβ -PET status using logistic regression models in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia (N = 140; 43 Aβ-, 97 Aβ+). We also investigated the relationship between the BHA tests and regional patterns of tau-PET signal using voxel-wise regression analyses in a subsample of 60 Aβ+ individuals with MCI or dementia.

Results

Favorites (associative memory), Match (executive functions and speed), and Everyday Cognition Scale scores were significantly associated with Aβ positivity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.75 [95% CI 0.66–0.85]). We found significant associations with tau-PET signal in mesial temporal regions for Favorites, frontoparietal regions for Match, and occipitoparietal regions for Line Orientation (visuospatial skills) in a subsample of individuals with MCI and dementia.

Conclusion

The BHA measures are significantly associated with both Aβ and regional tau in vivo imaging markers and could be used for the identification of patients with suspected AD pathology in clinical practice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13195-021-00776-w.

Detection of β-amyloid positivity in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants with demographics, cognition, MRI and plasma biomarkers

In vivo gold standard for the ante-mortem assessment of brain β-amyloid pathology is currently β-amyloid positron emission tomography or cerebrospinal fluid measures of β-amyloid42 or the β-amyloid42/β-amyloid40 ratio. The widespread acceptance of a biomarker classification scheme for the Alzheimer's disease continuum has ignited interest in more affordable and accessible approaches to detect Alzheimer's disease β-amyloid pathology, a process that often slows down the recruitment into, and adds to the cost of, clinical trials. Recently, there has been considerable excitement concerning the value of blood biomarkers. Leveraging multidisciplinary data from cognitively unimpaired participants and participants with mild cognitive impairment recruited by the multisite biomarker study of Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, here we assessed to what extent plasma β-amyloid42/β-amyloid40, neurofilament light and phosphorylated-tau at threonine-181 biomarkers detect the presence of β-amyloid pathology, and to what extent the addition of clinical information such as demographic data, APOE genotype, cognitive assessments and MRI can assist plasma biomarkers in detecting β-amyloid-positivity. Our results confirm plasma β-amyloid42/β-amyloid40 as a robust biomarker of brain β-amyloid-positivity (area under curve, 0.80-0.87). Plasma phosphorylated-tau at threonine-181 detected β-amyloid-positivity only in the cognitively impaired with a moderate area under curve of 0.67, whereas plasma neurofilament light did not detect β-amyloid-positivity in either group of participants. Clinical information as well as MRI-score independently detected positron emission tomography β-amyloid-positivity in both cognitively unimpaired and impaired (area under curve, 0.69-0.81). Clinical information, particularly APOE ε4 status, enhanced the performance of plasma biomarkers in the detection of positron emission tomography β-amyloid-positivity by 0.06-0.14 units of area under curve for cognitively unimpaired, and by 0.21-0.25 units for cognitively impaired; and further enhancement of these models with an MRI-score of β-amyloid-positivity yielded an additional improvement of 0.04-0.11 units of area under curve for cognitively unimpaired and 0.05-0.09 units for cognitively impaired. Taken together, these multi-disciplinary results suggest that when combined with clinical information, plasma phosphorylated-tau at threonine-181 and neurofilament light biomarkers, and an MRI-score could effectively identify β-amyloid+ cognitively unimpaired and impaired (area under curve, 0.80-0.90). Yet, when the MRI-score is considered in combination with clinical information, plasma phosphorylated-tau at threonine-181 and plasma neurofilament light have minimal added value for detecting β-amyloid-positivity. Our systematic comparison of β-amyloid-positivity detection models identified effective combinations of demographics, APOE, global cognition, MRI and plasma biomarkers. Promising minimally invasive and low-cost predictors such as plasma biomarkers of β-amyloid42/β-amyloid40 may be improved by age and APOE genotype.

Quantitative informant- and self-reports of subjective cognitive decline predict amyloid beta PET outcomes in cognitively unimpaired individuals independently of age and APOE ε4

INTRODUCTION

Amyloid beta (Aβ) pathology is an Alzheimer's disease early hallmark. Here we assess the value of longitudinal self- and informant reports of cognitive decline to predict Aβ positron emission tomography (PET) outcome in cognitively unimpaired middle-aged individuals.

METHODS

A total of 261 participants from the ALFA+ study underwent [18F]flutemetamol PET and Subjective Cognitive Decline Questionnaire (SCD-Q) concurrently, and 3 years before scan. We used logistic regressions to evaluate the ability of SCD-Q scores (self and informant) to predict Aβ PET visual read, and repeated analysis of variance to assess whether changes in SCD-Q scores relate to Aβ status.

RESULTS

Self-perception of decline in memory (odds ratio [OR] = 1.2), and informant perception of executive decline (OR = 1.6), increased the probability of a positive scan. Informant reports 3 years before scanning predicted Aβ PET outcome. Longitudinal increase of self-reported executive decline was predictive of Aβ in women (P = .003).

DISCUSSION

Subjective reports of cognitive decline are useful to predict Aβ and may improve recruitment strategies.