Long-term risk of stroke and its predictors in transient ischaemic attack patients in Germany

Nonlinear association of fibrinogen levels with functional prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Fibrinogen, essential in primary hemostasis, platelet aggregation, and leukocyte-endothelial interactions, is also associated with a heightened risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). However, its influence on AIS patient outcomes is unclear. This study examines the correlation between fibrinogen levels and the risk of unfavorable outcomes three months post-AIS.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted in Korea. The sample consisted of 1851 AIS patients who received treatment at a Korean hospital between January 2010 and December 2016. Statistical models were established to understand the relationship between fibrinogen levels(mg/dL) and unfavorable outcomes(mRs ≥ 3), including logistic regression models, Generalized Additive Models (GAM), and smooth curve fitting (penalized splines). The log-likelihood ratio test has been utilized to evaluate the best fit. To ensure the robustness of the results, sensitivity analyses were conducted by reanalyzing the relationship after excluding participants with TG > 200 mg/dl and BMI > 25 kg/m2. Subgroup analyses were also performed to assess whether influencing factors modify the association between fibrinogen levels and unfavorable outcomes.

RESULTS

After adjusting for multiple covariates including age, BMI, sex, LDL-c, TG, HGB, HDL-c, BUN, FPG, ALB, PLT, AF, hypertension, smoking, DM, mRs score at admission, the binary logistic regression model demonstrated revealed a significant positive association between fibrinogen levels and the risk of unfavorable outcomes in AIS patients (OR = 1.215, 95% CI: 1.032-1.429, p = 0.019). Sensitivity analyses supported these findings, with similar ORs observed in subsets of patients with TG < 200 mg/dL (OR = 1.221, 95% CI: 1.036-1.440) and BMI < 25 kg/m2 (OR = 1.259, 95% CI: 1.051-1.509). Additionally, the relationship between fibrinogen levels and outcomes was nonlinear, with a critical threshold of 2.74 g/L. Below the inflection point, the OR for unfavorable outcomes was 0.666 ((95% CI: 0.360, 1.233, p = 0.196), whereas above it, the OR increased to 1.374 (95% CI: 1.138, 1.659).

CONCLUSIONS

This study has provided evidence of a positive and nonlinear correlation between fibrinogen levels and 3-month poor functional outcomes in patients with AIS. When fibrinogen levels exceeded 2.74 g/L, a significant and positive association was observed with the risk of poor outcomes. This study provides a further reference for optimizing rehabilitation exercises and facilitating clinical counseling in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Blood urea nitrogen has a nonlinear association with 3-month outcomes with acute ischemic stroke: A second analysis based on a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the relationship between blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and 3-month outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients is still scarce. Therefore, the present study was preformed to explore the link between the BUN and 3-month poor outcomes in patients with AIS.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 1866 participants with AIS enrolled from January 2010 to December 2016 at a hospital in South Korea. Binary logistic regression, smooth curve fitting, and a set of sensitivity analyses were used to analyze the association between BUN and 3-month poor outcomes.

RESULTS

After adjusting covariates, the results of the binary logistic regression model suggested that the relationship between the BUN and the risk of 3-month poor outcomes for AIS patients was not statistically significant. However, there was a special nonlinear relationship between them, and the inflection point of the BUN was 13 mg/dl. On the left side of the inflection point, every unit increase in the BUN reduces the risk of 3-month poor outcomes by 14.1 % (OR = 0.859, 95%CI: 0.780-0.945, p = 0.0019). On the right side of the inflection point, the relationship is not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

There is a nonlinear relationship with saturation effect between BUN level and 3-month poor outcomes in AIS patients. Maintaining the BUN at around 13 mg/dl can reduce the risk of 3-month poor outcome in AIS patients.

Body mass index has a non-linear association with three-month outcomes in men with acute ischemic stroke: An analysis based on data from a prospective cohort study

Objective

Despite reports of a connection between body mass index (BMI) and stroke outcome, the findings remain debatable. In this investigation, we sought to determine whether BMI was associated with the probability of 3-month unfavorable outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods

This is a second analysis based on a cohort study. 1,897 people with AIS who were treated at a hospital in South Korea from January 2010 to December 2016 were included in the study. The linear relationship between BMI and unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients was evaluated using a binary logistic regression model. The generalized additive model (GAM) and smoothed curve fitting (penalized spline approach) were employed to see if there was a non-linear association between BMI and unfavorable outcomes in patients with AIS.

Results

The binary logistic regression model did not detect any statistically significant correlation between BMI and unfavorable outcomes in AIS patients after controlling for variables. The association between them, however, was non-linear, with the BMI inflection point occurring at 23.07 kg/m2. Each 1 kg/m2 rise in BMI on the left side of the inflection point was linked to a 12% lower risk of unfavorable outcomes (OR= 0.88, 95% CI: 0.82 to 0.96, p = 0.003). We stratified the AIS patients by gender to further explore their relationship. The results showed a specific non-linear relationship and saturation effect of BMI (kg/m2) with 3-month unfavorable outcomes in male patients but not in female patients. The inflection point for BMI was 23.35 kg/m2. When BMI was below 23.35 kg/m2 in men with AIS, BMI was inversely associated with unfavorable outcomes (OR=0.89,95% CI:0.80-0.98).

Conclusion

A particular non-linear connection and saturation effect between BMI (kg/m2) and 3-month unfavorable outcomes were present in male patients with AIS but not in females. 23.35 kg/m2 was the BMI's inflection point. The probability of unfavorable outcomes was substantially and inversely associated with BMI in men with AIS when it was less than 23.35 kg/m2. Men with AIS should have a BMI of no less than 23.35 kg/m2 to reduce the probability of unfavorable outcomes following AIS.

Association between triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and three-month outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a second analysis based on a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Evidence regarding the relationship between serum triglyceride-to-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) ratio and outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients is still mixed. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to explore the link between the TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes in patients with AIS.

METHODS

This was a second analysis based on a cohort study. The study population was 1764 patients with AIS collected from January 2010 to December 2016 at a hospital in South Korea. We used a binary logistic regression model to assess the linear association between the TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients. A generalized additive model (GAM) and smooth curve fitting (penalized spline method) was conducted to explore the nonlinear relationship between TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients. Additionally, we compute the inflection point using a recursive algorithm and then build a two-piece binary logistic regression model on both sides of the inflection point. A log-likelihood ratio test was used to determine the most appropriate model describing the association of TG/HDL-c ratio and unfavorable outcomes in patients with AIS.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of unfavorable outcomes was 28.2%, and the median TG/HDL-c ratio was 2.130. After adjusting covariates, the results of the binary logistic regression model suggested that the relationship between the TG/HDL-c ratio and the risk of unfavorable outcomes for AIS patients was not statistically significant. However, there was a nonlinear relationship between them, and the inflection point of the TG/HDL-c ratio was 3.515. On the left side of the inflection point, each 1-unit increase in the TG/HDL-c ratio was associated with a 22.6% lower risk of unfavorable outcomes (OR = 0.774, 95%CI:0.656 to 0.914, p = 0.002). On the right side of the inflection point, the effect size (OR) was 1.195 (95%CI:1.004 to1.423, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

There is a nonlinear relationship and threshold effect between the TG/HDL-c ratio and 3-month unfavorable outcomes in AIS patients. When the TG/HDL-c ratio is lower than 3.515, the TG/HDL-c ratio is significantly negatively related to the risk of unfavorable outcomes. When the TG/HDL-c ratio is greater than 3.515, the TG/HDL-c ratio was positively associated with the risk of unfavorable outcomes in AIS patients. This provides a reference for optimizing lipidemia intervention and promoting clinical communication in patients with AIS.

Pulmonary hypertension is associated with an increased incidence of cancer diagnoses

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a complex disease with increasing global incidence that eventually leads to right ventricular failure and is associated with a poor prognosis. The importance of noncardiac comorbidities in disease progression and prognosis has gained increasing recognition in recent years. In the present study, we investigated a potential association between PH and cancer in an outpatient cohort in Germany. Using the IQVIA Disease Analyzer database, we identified a total of 11,109 patients with PH and a propensity score matched cohort of equal size without PH who received medical treatment between 2005 and 2019. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the potential association between PH and cancer. Within the 10-year observation period, the incidence of cancer was significantly higher in PH patients than non-PH patients (23.2% vs. 8.5%, log-rank p < 0.001). Importantly, this association was observed for both male (HR = 1.24, p = 0.002) and female (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) patients, and was most pronounced in patients >80 years (HR = 1.50, p <  0.001). In terms of a specific tumor site, we found a significant association for respiratory organ cancer (HR = 1.60, p = 0.007) and skin cancer (HR = 1.48, p < 0.001). Our study provides strong evidence that PH is associated with an increased incidence of cancer. This finding should help raise awareness of this important comorbidity and could trigger specific screening programs in patients with PH.

The spectrum of comorbidities at the initial diagnosis of heart failure a case control study

The prognosis of heart failure (HF) patients is determined to a decisive extent by comorbidities. The present study investigates the association between a broad spectrum of diseases and the occurrence of HF in a large collective of outpatients. This retrospective case control study assessed the prevalence of 37 cardiac and extracardiac diseases in patients with an initial diagnosis of heart failure (ICD-10: I50) in 1,274 general practices in Germany between January 2005 and December 2019. The study is based on the Disease Analyzer database (IQVIA), which contains drug prescriptions, diagnoses, and basic medical and demographic data. Patients with and without heart failure were matched by sex, age, and index year. Hazard regression models were conducted to evaluate the association between different disease entities and heart failure. The present study included 162,246 patients with heart failure and 162,246 patients without heart failure. Mean age [SD] was 73.7 [12.1] years; 52.6% were women. Out of 37 predefined diagnoses, 36 were more prevalent in HF patients. The highest prevalence was primary hypertension (63.4% in HF patients vs. 53.3% in controls, p < 0.001) followed by lipid metabolism disorders (34.6% in HF patients vs. 29.1% in HF patients p < 0.001) and diabetes mellitus type II (32.2% in HF patients vs. 25.2% in controls, p < 0.001). In the regression analysis, 19 diseases were significantly associated with heart failure. Non-cardiovascular diagnoses strongly associated with HF were obesity (HR = 1.46), chronic bronchitis and COPD (HR = 1.41), gout (HR: 1.41), and chronic kidney disease (HR = 1.27). In the present study, we identified a variety of cardiac and extracardiac diseases associated with heart failure. Our data underscore the immense importance of comorbidities, even as early as at the stage of initial diagnosis of heart failure.

[Development and validation of nomograms for predicting stroke recurrence after firstepisode ischemic stroke]

OBJECTIVE

To explore the risk factors for recurrence in first-episode ischemic stroke survivors and establish a model for predicting stroke recurrence using a nomogram.

METHODS

We collected the data from a total of 821 first-episode ischemic stroke survivors admitted in the Department of Neurology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University from January, 2010 to December, 2018. R software was used for random sampling of the patients, and 70% of the patients were included in the training set to establish the prediction model and 30% were included in the validation set. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the factors affecting stroke recurrence, and R software rms package was used to construct the histogram and establish the visual prediction model. C-index and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performance of the model for predicting stroke occurrence.

RESULTS

Among the 821 survivors, the recurrence rate was 16.81% at 3 years and 19.98% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis of the training set by Cox regression model showed that an age over 65 years (HR= 2.596, P=0.024), an age of 45-64 years (HR=2.510, P=0.006), a mRS score beyond 3 (HR=2.284, P=0.004) and a history of coronary heart disease (HR=1.353, P=0.034) were all risk factors for stroke recurrence. The C-indexes of the nomogram for the 3-and 5-year relapse prediction model were 0.640 and 0.671, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Age, mRS score and peripheral vascular disease are the factors affecting stroke recurrence in first-episode ischemic stroke survivors, and the nomogram has a high discrimination and predictive power for predicting ischemic stroke recurrence.