Measures of effective population size in sea otters reveal special considerations for wide-ranging species

The 2009 FDA PRO guidance, Potential Type I error, Descriptive Statistics and Pragmatic estimation of the number of interviews for item elicitation

A statistical methodology named "capture recapture", a Kaplan-Meier Summary Statistic, and an urn model framework are presented to describe the elicitation, then estimate both the number of interviews and the total number of items ("codes") that will be elicited during patient interviews, and present a summary graphical statistic that "saturation" has occurred. This methodology is developed to address a gap in the FDA 2009 PRO and 2012 PFDD guidance for determining the number of interviews (sample size). This estimate of the number of interviews (sample size) uses a two-step procedure. The estimate of the total number of items is then used to estimate the number of interviews to elicit all items. A framework called an urn model is a framework for describing the elicitation and demonstrate the algorithm for declaring saturation "first interview with zero new codes". A caveat emptor is that due to independence assumptions, the urn model is not used as a method for estimating probabilities. The URN model provides a framework to demonstrate that an algorithm such as "first interview with zero new codes" may establish that all codes have been elicited. The limitations of the Urn model, capture recapture, and Kaplan-Meier are summarized. The statistical methods and the estimates supplement but do not replace expert judgement and declaration of "saturation." A graphical summary statistic is presented to summarize "saturation," after expert declaration for two algorithms. An example of a capture-recapture estimate, using simulated data is provided. The example suggests that the estimate of total number of codes may be accurate when prepared as early as the second interview. A second simulation is presented with an URN model, under a strong assumption of independence that an algorithm such as 'first interview with zero new codes" may fail to identify all codes. Potential errors in declaration of saturation are presented. Recommendations are presented for additional research and the use of the algorithm "first interview with zero new codes."

Genomic analyses reveal range-wide devastation of sea otter populations

The genetic consequences of species-wide declines are rarely quantified because the timing and extent of the decline varies across the species' range. The sea otter (Enhydra lutris) is a unique model in this regard. Their dramatic decline from thousands to fewer than 100 individuals per population occurred range-wide and nearly simultaneously due to the 18th-19th century fur trade. Consequently, each sea otter population represents an independent natural experiment of recovery after extreme population decline. We designed sequence capture probes for 50 Mb of sea otter exonic and neutral genomic regions. We sequenced 107 sea otters from five populations that span the species range to high coverage (18-76×) and three historical Californian samples from ~1500 and ~200 years ago to low coverage (1.5-3.5×). We observe distinct population structure and find that sea otters in California are the last survivors of a divergent lineage isolated for thousands of years and therefore warrant special conservation concern. We detect signals of extreme population decline in every surviving sea otter population and use this demographic history to design forward-in-time simulations of coding sequence. Our simulations indicate that this decline could lower the fitness of recovering populations for generations. However, the simulations also demonstrate how historically low effective population sizes prior to the fur trade may have mitigated the effects of population decline on genetic health. Our comprehensive approach shows how demographic inference from genomic data, coupled with simulations, allows assessment of extinction risk and different models of recovery.

Investigating Associations Among Relatedness, Genetic Diversity, and Causes of Mortality In Southern Sea Otters (Enhydra lutris nereis)

Southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population recovery is influenced by a variety of factors, including predation, biotoxin exposure, infectious disease, oil spills, habitat degradation, and resource limitation. This population has also experienced a significant genetic bottleneck, resulting in low genetic diversity. We investigated how two metrics, familial relatedness and genetic diversity, are correlated with common causes of mortality in southern sea otters, including cardiomyopathy, acanthocephalan (Profilicollis spp.) peritonitis, systemic protozoal infection (Toxoplasma gondii and Sarcocystis neurona), domoic acid intoxication, end-lactation syndrome, and shark bite. Microsatellite genetic markers were used to examine this association in 356 southern sea otters necropsied from 1998 to 2012. Significant associations with genetic diversity or familial relatedness (P<0.05) were observed for cardiomyopathy, acanthocephalan peritonitis, and sarcocystosis, and these associations varied by sex. Adult male cardiomyopathy cases (n=86) were more related than the null expectation (P<0.049). Conversely, female acanthocephalan peritonitis controls (n=110) were more related than the null expectation (P<0.004). Including genetic diversity as a predictor for fatal acanthocephalan peritonitis in the multivariate logistic model significantly improved model fit; lower genetic diversity was associated with reduced odds of sea otter death due to acanthocephalan peritonitis. Finally, male sarcocystosis controls (n=158) were more related than the null expectation (P<0.011). Including genetic diversity in the multivariate logistic model for fatal S. neurona infection improved model fit; lower genetic diversity was associated with increased odds of sea otter death due to S. neurona. Our study suggests that genetic diversity and familial relatedness, in conjunction with other factors such as age and sex, may influence outcome (survival or death) in relation to several common southern sea otter diseases. Our findings can inform policy for conservation management, such as potential reintroduction efforts, as part of species recovery.

Exposure to domoic acid is an ecological driver of cardiac disease in southern sea otters✰

Harmful algal blooms produce toxins that bioaccumulate in the food web and adversely affect humans, animals, and entire marine ecosystems. Blooms of the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia can produce domoic acid (DA), a toxin that most commonly causes neurological disease in endothermic animals, with cardiovascular effects that were first recognized in southern sea otters. Over the last 20 years, DA toxicosis has caused significant morbidity and mortality in marine mammals and seabirds along the west coast of the USA. Identifying DA exposure has been limited to toxin detection in biological fluids using biochemical assays, yet measurement of systemic toxin levels is an unreliable indicator of exposure dose or timing. Furthermore, there is little information regarding repeated DA exposure in marine wildlife. Here, the association between long-term environmental DA exposure and fatal cardiac disease was investigated in a longitudinal study of 186 free-ranging sea otters in California from 2001 - 2017, highlighting the chronic health effects of a marine toxin. A novel Bayesian spatiotemporal approach was used to characterize environmental DA exposure by combining several DA surveillance datasets and integrating this with life history data from radio-tagged otters in a time-dependent survival model. In this study, a sea otter with high DA exposure had a 1.7-fold increased hazard of fatal cardiomyopathy compared to an otter with low exposure. Otters that consumed a high proportion of crab and clam had a 2.5- and 1.2-times greater hazard of death due to cardiomyopathy than otters that consumed low proportions. Increasing age is a well-established predictor of cardiac disease, but this study is the first to identify that DA exposure affects the risk of cardiomyopathy more substantially in prime-age adults than aged adults. A 4-year-old otter with high DA exposure had 2.3 times greater risk of fatal cardiomyopathy than an otter with low exposure, while a 10-year old otter with high DA exposure had just 1.2 times greater risk. High Toxoplasma gondii titers also increased the hazard of death due to heart disease 2.4-fold. Domoic acid exposure was most detrimental for prime-age adults, whose survival and reproduction are vital for population growth, suggesting that persistent DA exposure will likely impact long-term viability of this threatened species. These results offer insight into the pervasiveness of DA in the food web and raise awareness of under-recognized chronic health effects of DA for wildlife at a time when toxic blooms are on the rise.

Archaeological mitogenomes illuminate the historical ecology of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) and the viability of reintroduction

Genetic analyses are an important contribution to wildlife reintroductions, particularly in the modern context of extirpations and ecological destruction. To address the complex historical ecology of the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) and its failed 1970s reintroduction to coastal Oregon, we compared mitochondrial genomes of pre-extirpation Oregon sea otters to extant and historical populations across the range. We sequenced, to our knowledge, the first complete ancient mitogenomes from archaeological Oregon sea otter dentine and historical sea otter dental calculus. Archaeological Oregon sea otters (n = 20) represent 10 haplotypes, which cluster with haplotypes from Alaska, Washington and British Columbia, and exhibit a clear division from California haplotypes. Our results suggest that extant northern populations are appropriate for future reintroduction efforts. This project demonstrates the feasibility of mitogenome capture and sequencing from non-human dental calculus and the diverse applications of ancient DNA analyses to pressing ecological and conservation topics and the management of at-risk/extirpated species.

Use of the ACTH challenge test to identify the predominant glucocorticoid in the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis)

After nearly being hunted to extinction during the fur trade of the late 20th Century, sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations have recovered to varying degrees of their historical range. While overall population numbers and range have increased, there are regions in which expansion has occurred at a slower rate and/or animal numbers have decreased, which may be a result of chronic stress from a variety of sources. Some have employed glucocorticoid analysis in their attempts to validate these explanations. Our goal was to conduct a controlled study using sea otters managed under human care to validate the use of serum glucocorticoid analysis to monitor stress physiology in the sea otter. We used a standard ACTH challenge test to compare cortisol and corticosterone responses, thereby identifying the primary glucocorticoid in the sea otter. Fourteen sea otters of both sexes (five males, nine females), including juveniles, sub-adults and adults, participated in the study. The results of the testing supported cortisol as the primary glucocorticoid in the sea otter. Sex and age did not affect how the individual responded to the ACTH or saline injection. Interestingly, the saline injection not only confirmed the effects of the ACTH on glucocorticoid release from the adrenal glands but also provided information on how long it takes the sea otter's glucocorticoid levels to return to baseline after capture and sedation. The insight gained from this study will aid in future efforts to better understand the role of stress in free-ranging sea otter populations. Recognition of the primary glucocorticoid will facilitate evaluation of more stable biological material, such as fur or whiskers, which tend to be less affected by the diurnal cycling of glucocorticoids.

Aquatic Adaptation and Depleted Diversity: A Deep Dive into the Genomes of the Sea Otter and Giant Otter

Despite its recent invasion into the marine realm, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) has evolved a suite of adaptations for life in cold coastal waters, including limb modifications and dense insulating fur. This uniquely dense coat led to the near-extinction of sea otters during the 18th-20th century fur trade and an extreme population bottleneck. We used the de novo genome of the southern sea otter (E. l. nereis) to reconstruct its evolutionary history, identify genes influencing aquatic adaptation, and detect signals of population bottlenecks. We compared the genome of the southern sea otter with the tropical freshwater-living giant otter (Pteronura brasiliensis) to assess common and divergent genomic trends between otter species, and with the closely related northern sea otter (E. l. kenyoni) to uncover population-level trends. We found signals of positive selection in genes related to aquatic adaptations, particularly limb development and polygenic selection on genes related to hair follicle development. We found extensive pseudogenization of olfactory receptor genes in both the sea otter and giant otter lineages, consistent with patterns of sensory gene loss in other aquatic mammals. At the population level, the southern sea otter and the northern sea otter showed extremely low genomic diversity, signals of recent inbreeding, and demographic histories marked by population declines. These declines may predate the fur trade and appear to have resulted in an increase in putatively deleterious variants that could impact the future recovery of the sea otter.

Non-trophic impacts from white sharks complicate population recovery for sea otters

Complex interactions between protected populations may challenge the recovery of whole ecosystems. In California, white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) mistargeting southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) are an emergent impact to sea otter recovery, inhibiting the broader ecosystem restoration sea otters might provide. Here, we integrate and analyze tracking and stranding data to compare the phenology of interactions between white sharks and their targeted prey (elephant seals, Mirounga angustirostris) with those of mistargeted prey (sea otters, humans). Pronounced seasonal peaks in shark bites to otters and humans overlap in the late boreal summer, immediately before the annual adult white shark migration to elephant seal rookeries. From 1997 to 2017, the seasonal period when sharks bite otters expanded from 2 to 8 months of the year and occurred primarily in regions where kelp cover declined. Immature and male otters, demographics most associated with range expansion, were disproportionately impacted. While sea otters are understood to play a keystone role in kelp forests, recent ecosystem shifts are revealing unprecedented bottom-up and top-down interactions. Such shifts challenge ecosystem management programs that rely on static models of species interactions.