INTEGRATIVE TESTING OF HOW ENVIRONMENTS FROM THE PAST TO THE PRESENT SHAPE GENETIC STRUCTURE ACROSS LANDSCAPES

Estimation of spatial demographic maps from polymorphism data using a neural network

A fundamental goal in population genetics is to understand how variation is arrayed over natural landscapes. From first principles we know that common features such as heterogeneous population densities and barriers to dispersal should shape genetic variation over space, however there are few tools currently available that can deal with these ubiquitous complexities. Geographically referenced single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data are increasingly accessible, presenting an opportunity to study genetic variation across geographic space in myriad species. We present a new inference method that uses geo-referenced SNPs and a deep neural network to estimate spatially heterogeneous maps of population density and dispersal rate. Our neural network trains on simulated input and output pairings, where the input consists of genotypes and sampling locations generated from a continuous space population genetic simulator, and the output is a map of the true demographic parameters. We benchmark our tool against existing methods and discuss qualitative differences between the different approaches; in particular, our program is unique because it infers the magnitude of both dispersal and density as well as their variation over the landscape, and it does so using SNP data. Similar methods are constrained to estimating relative migration rates, or require identity-by-descent blocks as input. We applied our tool to empirical data from North American grey wolves, for which it estimated mostly reasonable demographic parameters, but was affected by incomplete spatial sampling. Genetic based methods like ours complement other, direct methods for estimating past and present demography, and we believe will serve as valuable tools for applications in conservation, ecology and evolutionary biology. An open source software package implementing our method is available from https://github.com/kr-colab/mapNN.

Drivers of genomic differentiation landscapes in populations of disparate ecological and geographical settings within mainland Apis cerana

Elucidating the evolutionary processes that drive population divergence can enhance our understanding of the early stages of speciation and inform conservation management decisions. The honeybee Apis cerana displays extensive population divergence, providing an informative natural system for exploring these processes. The mainland lineage A. cerana includes several peripheral subspecies with disparate ecological and geographical settings radiated from a central ancestor. Under this evolutionary framework, we can explore the patterns of genome differentiation and the evolutionary models that explain them. We can also elucidate the contribution of non-genomic spatiotemporal mechanisms (extrinsic features) and genomic mechanisms (intrinsic features) that influence these genomic differentiation landscapes. Based on 293 whole genomes, a small part of the genome is highly differentiated between central-peripheral subspecies pairs, while low and partial parallelism partly reflects idiosyncratic responses to environmental differences. Combined elements of recurrent selection and speciation-with-gene-flow models generate the heterogeneous genome landscapes. These elements weight differently between central-island and other central-peripheral subspecies pairs, influenced by glacial cycles superimposed on different geomorphologies. Although local recombination rates exert a significant influence on patterns of genomic differentiation, it is unlikely that low-recombination rates regions were generated by structural variation. In conclusion, complex factors including geographical isolation, divergent ecological selection and non-uniform genome features have acted concertedly in the evolution of reproductive barriers that could reduce gene flow in part of the genome and facilitate the persistence of distinct populations within mainland lineage of A. cerana.

The effect of environmental factors on the genetic differentiation of Cucurbita ficifolia populations based on whole-genome resequencing

BACKGROUND

Cucurbita ficifolia is one of the squash species most resistant to fungal pathogens, and has especially high resistance to melon Fusarium wilt. This species is therefore an important germplasm resource for the breeding of squash and melon cultivars.

RESULTS

Whole-genome resequencing of 223 individuals from 32 populations in Yunnan Province, the main cucurbit production area in China, was performed and 3,855,120 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 1,361,000 InDels were obtained. SNP analysis suggested that levels of genetic diversity in C. ficifolia were high, but that different populations showed no significant genetic differentiation or geographical structure, and that individual C. ficifolia plants with fruit rinds of a similar color did not form independent clusters. A Mantel test conducted in combination with geographical distance and environmental factors suggested that genetic distance was not correlated with geographical distance, but had a significant correlation with environmental distance. Further associations between the genetic data and five environmental factors were analyzed using whole-genome association analysis. SNPs associated with each environmental factor were investigated and genes 250 kb upstream and downstream from associated SNPs were annotated. Overall, 15 marker-trait-associated SNPs (MTAs) and 293 genes under environmental selection were identified. The identified genes were involved in cell membrane lipid metabolism, macromolecular complexes, catalytic activity and other related aspects. Ecological niche modeling was used to simulate the distribution of C. ficifolia across time, from the present and into the future. We found that the area suitable for C. ficifolia changed with the changing climate in different periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Resequencing of the C. ficifolia accessions has allowed identification of genetic markers, such as SNPs and InDels. The SNPs identified in this study suggest that environmental factors mediated the formation of the population structure of C. ficifolia in China. These SNPs and Indels might also contribute to the variation in important pathways of genes for important agronomic traits such as yield, disease resistance and stress tolerance. Moreover, the genome resequencing data and the genetic markers identified from 223 accessions provide insight into the genetic variation of the C. ficifolia germplasm and will facilitate a broad range of genetic studies.

Using gridCoal to assess whether standard population genetic theory holds in the presence of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in population size

Spatially explicit population genetic models have long been developed, yet have rarely been used to test hypotheses about the spatial distribution of genetic diversity or the genetic divergence between populations. Here, we use spatially explicit coalescence simulations to explore the properties of the island and the two-dimensional stepping stone models under a wide range of scenarios with spatio-temporal variation in deme size. We avoid the simulation of genetic data, using the fact that under the studied models, summary statistics of genetic diversity and divergence can be approximated from coalescence times. We perform the simulations using gridCoal, a flexible spatial wrapper for the software msprime (Kelleher et al., 2016, Theoretical Population Biology, 95, 13) developed herein. In gridCoal, deme sizes can change arbitrarily across space and time, as well as migration rates between individual demes. We identify different factors that can cause a deviation from theoretical expectations, such as the simulation time in comparison to the effective deme size and the spatio-temporal autocorrelation across the grid. Our results highlight that F_ST , a measure of the strength of population structure, principally depends on recent demography, which makes it robust to temporal variation in deme size. In contrast, the amount of genetic diversity is dependent on the distant past when N_e is large, therefore longer run times are needed to estimate N_e than F_ST . Finally, we illustrate the use of gridCoal on a real-world example, the range expansion of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) since the last glacial maximum, using different degrees of spatio-temporal variation in deme size.

Legacy of supervolcanic eruptions on population genetic structure of brown kiwi

Supervolcanoes are volcanoes capable of mega-colossal eruptions that emit more than 1,000 km³ of ash and other particles.¹ The earth's most recent mega-colossal eruption was the Oruanui eruption of the Taupo supervolcano 25,580 years before present (YBP) on the central North Island of New Zealand.² This eruption blanketed major swaths of the North Island in thick layers of ash and igneous rock,^2,3 devastating habitats and likely causing widespread population extinctions.^4-7 An additional devastating super-colossal eruption (>100 km³) of the Taupo supervolcano occurred approximately 1,690 YBP.⁸ The impacts of such massive but ephemeral natural disasters on contemporary population genetic structure remain underexplored. Here, we combined data for 4,951 SNPs with spatially explicit demographic and coalescent models within an approximate Bayesian computation framework to test the drivers of genetic structure in brown kiwi (Apteryx mantelli). Our results strongly support the importance of eruptions of the Taupo supervolcano in restructuring pre-existing geographic patterns of population differentiation and genetic diversity. Range shifts due to climatic oscillations-a frequent explanation for genetic structure⁹-are insufficient to fully explain the empirical data. Meanwhile, recent range contraction and fragmentation due to historically documented anthropogenic habitat alteration adds no explanatory power to our models. Our results support a major role for cycles of destruction and post-volcanic recolonization in restructuring the population genomic landscape of brown kiwi and highlight how ancient and ephemeral mega-disasters may leave a lasting legacy on patterns of intraspecific genetic variation.

Revisiting the comparative phylogeography of unglaciated eastern North America: 15 years of patterns and progress

In a landmark comparative phylogeographic study, “Comparative phylogeography of unglaciated eastern North America,” Soltis et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2006, 15, 4261) identified geographic discontinuities in genetic variation shared across taxa occupying unglaciated eastern North America and proposed several common biogeographical discontinuities related to past climate fluctuations and geographic barriers. Since 2006, researchers have published many phylogeographical studies and achieved many advances in genotyping and analytical techniques; however, it is unknown how this work has changed our understanding of the factors shaping the phylogeography of eastern North American taxa. We analyzed 184 phylogeographical studies of eastern North American taxa published between 2007 and 2019 to evaluate: (1) the taxonomic focus of studies and whether a previously detected taxonomic bias towards studies focused on vertebrates has changed over time, (2) the extent to which studies have adopted genotyping technologies that improve the resolution of genetic groups (i.e., NGS DNA sequencing) and analytical approaches that facilitate hypothesis‐testing (i.e., divergence time estimation and niche modeling), and (3) whether new studies support the hypothesized biogeographic discontinuities proposed by Soltis et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2006, 15, 4261) or instead support new, previously undetected discontinuities. We observed little change in taxonomic focus over time, with studies still biased toward vertebrates. Although many technological and analytical advances became available during the period, uptake was slow and they were employed in only a small proportion of studies. We found variable support for previously identified discontinuities and identified one new recurrent discontinuity. However, the limited resolution and taxonomic breadth of many studies hindered our ability to clarify the most important climatological or geographical factors affecting taxa in the region. Broadening the taxonomic focus to include more non‐vertebrate taxa, employing technologies that improve genetic resolution, and using analytical approaches that improve hypothesis testing are necessary to strengthen our inference of the forces shaping the phylogeography of eastern North America.

Fine-scale genome-wide signature of Pleistocene glaciation in Thitarodes moths (Lepidoptera: Hepialidae), host of Ophiocordyceps fungus in the Hengduan Mountains

The Hengduan Mountains region is a biodiversity hotspot known for its topologically complex, deep valleys and high mountains. While landscape and glacial refugia have been evoked to explain patterns of inter-species divergence, the accumulation of intra-species (i.e. population level) genetic divergence across the mountain-valley landscape in this region has received less attention. We used genome-wide restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) to reveal signatures of Pleistocene glaciation in populations of Thitarodes shambalaensis (Lepidoptera: Hepialidae), the host moth of parasitic Ophiocordyceps sinensis (Hypocreales: Ophiocordycipitaceae) or "caterpillar fungus" endemic to the glacier of eastern Mt. Gongga. We used moraine history along the glacier valleys to model the distribution and environmental barriers to gene flow across populations of T. shambalaensis. We found that moth populations separated by less than 10 km exhibited valley-based population genetic clustering and isolation-by-distance (IBD), while gene flow among populations was best explained by models using information about their distributions at the local last glacial maximum (LGM_L , 58 kya), not their contemporary distribution. Maximum likelihood lineage history among populations, and among subpopulations as little as 500 meters apart, recapitulated glaciation history across the landscape. We also found signals of isolated population expansion following the retreat of LGM_L glaciers. These results reveal the fine-scale, long-term historical influence of landscape and glaciation on the genetic structuring of populations of an endangered and economically important insect species. Similar mechanisms, given enough time and continued isolation, could explain the contribution of glacier refugia to the generation of species diversity among the Hengduan Mountains.

Population structure in Neotropical plants: Integrating pollination biology, topography and climatic niches

Animal pollinators mediate gene flow among plant populations, but in contrast to well-studied topographic and (Pleistocene) environmental isolating barriers, their impact on population genetic differentiation remains largely unexplored. Comparing how these multifarious factors drive microevolutionary histories is, however, crucial for better resolving macroevolutionary patterns of plant diversification. Here we combined genomic analyses with landscape genetics and niche modelling across six related Neotropical plant species (424 individuals across 33 localities) differing in pollination strategy to test the hypothesis that highly mobile (vertebrate) pollinators more effectively link isolated localities than less mobile (bee) pollinators. We found consistently higher genetic differentiation (FST ) among localities of bee- than vertebrate-pollinated species with increasing geographical distance, topographic barriers and historical climatic instability. High admixture among montane populations further suggested relative climatic stability of Neotropical montane forests during the Pleistocene. Overall, our results indicate that pollinators may differentially impact the potential for allopatric speciation, thereby critically influencing diversification histories at macroevolutionary scales.

Postglacial colonization in the Great Lakes Region by the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus): conflicts between genomic and field data

For regions that were covered by ice during the Pleistocene glaciations, species must have emigrated from unglaciated regions. However, it can be difficult to discern when and from what ancestral source populations such expansions took place, especially since warming climates introduce the possibility of very recent expansions. For example, in the Great Lakes region, pronounced climatic change includes past glaciations as well as recent, rapid warming. Here we evaluate different expansion hypotheses with a genomic study of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus noveboracensis), which is one of the most common mammals throughout the Great Lakes region. Ecological surveys coupled with historical museum records suggest a recent range expansion of P. leucopus associated with the warming climate over the last decades. These detailed records have yet to be complemented by genomic data that provide the requisite resolution for detecting recent expansion, although some mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences have suggested possible hypotheses about the geography of expansion. With more than 7,000 loci generated using RADseq, we evaluate support for multiple hypotheses of a geographic expansion in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (UP). Analysis of a single random single-nucleotide polymorphism per locus revealed a fine-scale population structure separating the Lower Peninsula (LP) population from all other populations in the UP. We also detected a genetic structure that reflects an evolutionary history of postglacial colonization from two different origins into the UP, one coming from the LP and one coming from the west. Instead of supporting a climate-driven range expansion, as suggested by field surveys, our results support more ancient postglacial colonization of the UP from two different ancestral sources. With these results, we offer new insights about P. leucopus geographic expansion history, as well as a more general phylogeographic framework for testing range shifts in the Great Lakes region.

Assessing model adequacy leads to more robust phylogeographic inference

Phylogeographic studies base inferences on large data sets and complex demographic models, but these models are applied in ways that could mislead researchers and compromise their inference. Researchers face three challenges associated with the use of models: (i) 'model selection', or the identification of an appropriate model for analysis; (ii) 'evaluation of analytical results', or the interpretation of the biological significance of the resulting parameter estimates, delimitations, and topologies; and (iii) 'model evaluation', or the use of statistical approaches to assess the fit of the model to the data. The field collectively invests most of its energy in point (ii) without considering the other points; we argue that attention to points (i) and (iii) is essential to phylogeographic inference.

Species diversification in the lowlands of mid-latitude South America: Turnera sidoides subsp. carnea as a case study

The lowlands of mid-latitude South America comprise complex temperate ecoregions characterized by a unique biodiversity. However, the processes responsible for shaping its species diversity are still largely unknown. Turnera sidoides subsp. carnea is a variable subspecies occurring in the lowlands of northeastern Argentina and Uruguay, extending to southern Paraguay and Brazil. It constitutes a good model to perform evolutionary studies. Here we used an integrative approach to understand the process of diversification within this subspecies and to increase the knowledge concerning patterns and processes responsible for shaping the species diversity in the temperate lowlands of South America. The results provided strong evidences that this subspecies is an autopolyploid complex per se, being in an active process of intrasubspecific diversification. Morphological and genetic data show that the diversity of T. sidoides subsp. carnea is in congruence with the great past and present abiotic and biotic variability of the mid-latitude South American lowlands. The evolutionary history of this subspecies is consistent with past fragmentation and allopatric differentiation at diploid level. Geographic isolation and local adaptation would have promoted strong morphological, ecological, and genetic differentiation, resulting in two morphotypes and different genetic groups indicative of incipient speciation.

Addressing alpine plant phylogeography using integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modeling

Phylogeographic studies of alpine plants have evolved considerably in the last two decades from ad hoc interpretations of genetic data to statistical model-based approaches. In this review we outline the developments in alpine plant phylogeography focusing on the recent approach of integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent (iDDC) modeling. By integrating distributional data with spatially explicit demographic modeling and subsequent coalescent simulations, the history of alpine species can be inferred and long-standing hypotheses, such as species-specific responses to climate change or survival on nunataks during the last glacial maximum, can be efficiently tested as exemplified by available case studies. We also discuss future prospects and improvements of iDDC.

Circuitscape in Julia: Empowering Dynamic Approaches to Connectivity Assessment

The conservation field is experiencing a rapid increase in the amount, variety, and quality of spatial data that can help us understand species movement and landscape connectivity patterns. As interest grows in more dynamic representations of movement potential, modelers are often limited by the capacity of their analytic tools to handle these datasets. Technology developments in software and high-performance computing are rapidly emerging in many fields, but uptake within conservation may lag, as our tools or our choice of computing language can constrain our ability to keep pace. We recently updated Circuitscape, a widely used connectivity analysis tool developed by Brad McRae and Viral Shah, by implementing it in Julia, a high-performance computing language. In this initial re-code (Circuitscape 5.0) and later updates, we improved computational efficiency and parallelism, achieving major speed improvements, and enabling assessments across larger extents or with higher resolution data. Here, we reflect on the benefits to conservation of strengthening collaborations with computer scientists, and extract examples from a collection of 572 Circuitscape applications to illustrate how through a decade of repeated investment in the software, applications have been many, varied, and increasingly dynamic. Beyond empowering continued innovations in dynamic connectivity, we expect that faster run times will play an important role in facilitating co-production of connectivity assessments with stakeholders, increasing the likelihood that connectivity science will be incorporated in land use decisions.

The effects of weather variability on patterns of genetic diversity in Tasmanian bettongs

While the effects of climate (long-term, prevailing weather) on species abundance, range and genetic diversity have been widely studied, short-term, localized variations in atmospheric conditions (i.e., weather) can also rapidly alter species' geographical ranges and population sizes, but little is known about how they affect genetic diversity. We investigated the relationship between weather and range-wide genetic diversity in a marsupial, Bettongia gaimardi, using dynamic species distribution models (SDMs). Genetic diversity was lower in parts of the range where the weather-based SDM predicted high variability in probability of B. gaimardi occurrence during 1950-2009. This is probably an effect of lower population sizes and extinction-recolonization cycles in places with highly variable weather. Spatial variation in genetic diversity was also better predicted by mean probabilities of B. gaimardi occurrence from weather- than climate-based SDMs. Our results illustrate the importance of weather in driving population dynamics and species distributions on decadal timescales and thereby in affecting genetic diversity. Modelling the links between changing weather patterns, species distributions and genetic diversity will allow researchers to better forecast biological impacts of climate change.

A New Method for Integrating Ecological Niche Modeling with Phylogenetics to Estimate Ancestral Distributions

Ancestral range estimation and projection of niche models into the past have both become common in evolutionary studies where the ancient distributions of organisms are in question. However, these methods are hampered by complementary hurdles: discrete characterization of areas in ancestral range estimation can be overly coarse, especially at shallow timescales, and niche model projection neglects evolution. Phylogenetic niche modeling accounts for both of these issues by incorporating knowledge of evolutionary relationships into a characterization of environmental tolerances. We present a new method for phylogenetic niche modeling, implemented in R. Given past and present climate data, taxon occurrence data, and a time-calibrated phylogeny, our method constructs niche models for each extant taxon, uses ancestral character estimation to reconstruct ancestral niche models, and projects these models into paleoclimate data to provide a historical estimate of the geographic range of a lineage. Models either at nodes or along branches of the phylogeny can be estimated. We demonstrate our method on a small group of dendrobatid frogs and show that it can make inferences given species with restricted ranges and little occurrence data. We also use simulations to show that our method can reliably reconstruct the niche of a known ancestor in both geographic and environmental space. Our method brings together fields as disparate as ecological niche modeling, phylogenetics, and ancestral range estimation in a user-friendly package.

Individualistic evolutionary responses of Central African rain forest plants to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of genetic diversity is fundamental for species conservation in the face of climate change, particularly in hyper-diverse biomes. Species in a region may respond similarly to climate change, leading to comparable evolutionary dynamics, or individualistically, resulting in dissimilar patterns. The second-largest expanse of continuous tropical rain forest (TRF) in the world is found in Central Africa. Here, present-day patterns of genetic structure are thought to be dictated by repeated expansion and contraction of TRFs into and out of refugia during Pleistocene climatic fluctuations. This refugia model implies a common response to past climate change. However, given the unrivalled diversity of TRFs, species could respond differently because of distinct environmental requirements or ecological characteristics. To test this, we generated genome-wide sequence data for >700 individuals of seven codistributed plants from Lower Guinea in Central Africa. We inferred species' evolutionary and demographic histories within a comparative phylogeographic framework. Levels of genetic structure varied among species and emerged primarily during the Pleistocene, but divergence events were rarely concordant. Demographic trends ranged from repeated contraction and expansion to continuous growth. Furthermore, patterns in genetic variation were linked to disparate environmental factors, including climate, soil, and habitat stability. Using a strict refugia model to explain past TRF dynamics is too simplistic. Instead, individualistic evolutionary responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have shaped patterns in genetic diversity. Predicting the future dynamics of TRFs under climate change will be challenging, and more emphasis is needed on species ecology to better conserve TRFs worldwide.

Biotic interactions matter in phylogeography research: Integrative analysis of demographic, genetic and distribution data to account for them

It is well established that biotic-interspecific interactions, such as competition, mutualism, parasitism or predation, modulate species dynamics in demographic and evolutionary terms. It is also acknowledged that biotic interactions can even have major effects on local population dynamics and scale-up to determine wider species' ranges (Wisz et al., 2013). Notwithstanding, the study of biotic interactions has been mostly ignored in biogeography and phylogeography research, for which it has been long assumed that abiotic factors (e.g. climate) mostly drive the ecological and evolutionary processes that underlie species' distribution. Consequently, our knowledge is scarce about the role of biotic interactions in determining spatial patterns of genetic diversity and structure. In a From the Cover article in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Ortego & Knowles (2020) address the study of positive and negative plant-plant interactions and test whether their demographic consequences translate into broadscale patterns of genomic variation in two oak species from the iconic California Floristic Province. The integrative approach undertaken in this study reveals that some models that incorporate competition or facilitation better explain genomic patterns than null models in which species respond only to variations in environmental suitability. These findings highlight the relevance of biologically informed model-based approaches for inferring the evolutionary consequences of species' range dynamics, which is of particular importance in today's global change context.

Dispersal and genetic structure in a tropical small mammal, the Bornean tree shrew (Tupaia longipes), in a fragmented landscape along the Kinabatangan River, Sabah, Malaysia

Background

Constraints in migratory capabilities, such as the disruption of gene flow and genetic connectivity caused by habitat fragmentation, are known to affect genetic diversity and the long-term persistence of populations. Although negative population trends due to ongoing forest loss are widespread, the consequence of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity, gene flow and genetic structure has rarely been investigated in Bornean small mammals. To fill this gap in knowledge, we used nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers to assess genetic diversity, gene flow and the genetic structure in the Bornean tree shrew, Tupaia longipes, that inhabits forest fragments of the Lower Kinabatangan Wildlife Sanctuary, Sabah. Furthermore, we used these markers to assess dispersal regimes in male and female T. longipes.

Results

In addition to the Kinabatangan River, a known barrier for dispersal in tree shrews, the heterogeneous landscape along the riverbanks affected the genetic structure in this species. Specifically, while in larger connected forest fragments along the northern riverbank genetic connectivity was relatively undisturbed, patterns of genetic differentiation and the distribution of mitochondrial haplotypes in a local scale indicated reduced migration on the strongly fragmented southern riverside. Especially, oil palm plantations seem to negatively affect dispersal in T. longipes. Clear sex-biased dispersal was not detected based on relatedness, assignment tests, and haplotype diversity.

Conclusion

This study revealed the importance of landscape connectivity to maintain migration and gene flow between fragmented populations, and to ensure the long-term persistence of species in anthropogenically disturbed landscapes.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

An explicit test of Pleistocene survival in peripheral versus nunatak refugia in two high mountain plant species

Pleistocene climate fluctuations had profound influence on the biogeographical history of many biota. As large areas in high mountain ranges were covered by glaciers, biota were forced either to peripheral refugia (and possibly beyond to lowland refugia) or to interior refugia (nunataks). However, nunatak survival remains controversial as it relies solely on correlative genetic evidence. Here, we test hypotheses of glacial survival using two high alpine plant species (the insect‐pollinated Pedicularis asplenifolia and wind‐pollinated Carex fuliginosa) in the European Alps. Employing the iDDC (integrative Distributional, Demographic and Coalescent) approach, which couples species distribution modelling, spatial and temporal demographic simulation and Approximate Bayesian Computation, we explicitly test three hypotheses of glacial survival: (a) peripheral survival only, (b) nunatak survival only and (c) peripheral plus nunatak survival. In P. asplenifolia the peripheral plus nunatak survival hypothesis was supported by Bayes factors (BF> 100), whereas in C. fuliginosa the peripheral survival only hypothesis, although best supported, could not be unambiguously distinguished from the peripheral plus nunatak survival hypothesis (BF = 5.58). These results are consistent with current habitat preferences (P. asplenifolia extends to higher elevations) and the potential for genetic swamping (i.e., replacement of local genotypes via hybridization with immigrating genotypes [expected to be higher in the wind‐pollinated C. fuliginosa]). Although the persistence of plants on nunataks during glacial periods has been debated and studied over decades, this is one of the first studies to explicitly test the hypothesis instead of solely using correlative evidence.

Marginal Likelihoods in Phylogenetics: A Review of Methods and Applications

By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to increase in complexity to better capture micro- and macroevolutionary processes. In a Bayesian framework, the marginal likelihood is how data update our prior beliefs about models, which gives us an intuitive measure of comparing model fit that is grounded in probability theory. Given the rapid increase in the number and complexity of phylogenetic models, methods for approximating marginal likelihoods are increasingly important. Here, we try to provide an intuitive description of marginal likelihoods and why they are important in Bayesian model testing. We also categorize and review methods for estimating marginal likelihoods of phylogenetic models, highlighting several recent methods that provide well-behaved estimates. Furthermore, we review some empirical studies that demonstrate how marginal likelihoods can be used to learn about models of evolution from biological data. We discuss promising alternatives that can complement marginal likelihoods for Bayesian model choice, including posterior-predictive methods. Using simulations, we find one alternative method based on approximate-Bayesian computation to be biased. We conclude by discussing the challenges of Bayesian model choice and future directions that promise to improve the approximation of marginal likelihoods and Bayesian phylogenetics as a whole.

The Quetzal Coalescence template library: A C++ programmers resource for integrating distributional, demographic and coalescent models

Genetic samples can be used to understand and predict the behaviour of species living in a fragmented and temporally changing environment. In this regard, models of coalescence conditioned to an environment through an explicit modelling of population growth and migration have been developed in recent years, and simulators implementing these models have been developed, enabling biologists to estimate parameters of interest with Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques. However, model choice remains limited, and developing new coalescence simulators is extremely time consuming because code re-use is limited. We present Quetzal, a C++ library composed of re-usable components, which is sufficiently general to efficiently implement a wide range of spatially explicit coalescence-based environmental models of population genetics and to embed the simulation in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. Quetzal is not a simulation program, but a toolbox for programming simulators aimed at the community of scientific coders and research software engineers in molecular ecology and phylogeography. This new code resource is open-source and available at https://becheler.github.io/pages/quetzal.html along with other documentation resources.

Genomic evidence of survival near ice sheet margins for some, but not all, North American trees

Temperate species experienced dramatic range reductions during the Last Glacial Maximum, yet refugial populations from which modern populations are descended have never been precisely located. Climate-based models identify only broad areas of potential habitat, traditional phylogeographic studies provide poor spatial resolution, and pollen records for temperate forest communities are difficult to interpret and do not provide species-level taxonomic resolution. Here we harness signals of range expansion from large genomic datasets, using a simulation-based framework to infer the precise latitude and longitude of glacial refugia in two widespread, codistributed hickories (Carya spp.) and to quantify uncertainty in these estimates. We show that one species likely expanded from close to ice sheet margins near the site of a previously described macrofossil for the genus, highlighting support for the controversial notion of northern microrefugia. In contrast, the expansion origin inferred for the second species is compatible with classic hypotheses of distant displacement into southern refugia. Our statistically rigorous, powerful approach demonstrates how refugia can be located from genomic data with high precision and accuracy, addressing fundamental questions about long-term responses to changing climates and providing statistical insight into longstanding questions that have previously been addressed primarily qualitatively.

Mountains as Evolutionary Arenas: Patterns, Emerging Approaches, Paradigm Shifts, and Their Implications for Plant Phylogeographic Research in the Tibeto-Himalayan Region

Recently, the "mountain-geobiodiversity hypothesis" (MGH) was proposed as a key concept for explaining the high levels of biodiversity found in mountain systems of the Tibeto-Himalayan region (THR), which comprises the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayas, and the biodiversity hotspot known as the "Mountains of Southwest China" (Hengduan Mountains region). In addition to the MGH, which covers the entire life span of a mountain system, a complementary concept, the so-called "flickering connectivity system" (FCS), was recently proposed for the period of the Quaternary. The FCS focuses on connectivity dynamics in alpine ecosystems caused by the drastic climatic changes during the past ca. 2.6 million years, emphasizing that range fragmentation and allopatric speciation are not the sole factors for accelerated evolution of species richness and endemism in mountains. I here provide a review of the current state of knowledge concerning geological uplift, Quaternary glaciation, and the main phylogeographic patterns ("contraction/recolonization," "platform refugia/local expansion," and "microrefugia") of seed plant species in the THR. In addition, I make specific suggestions as to which factors future avenues of phylogeographic research should take into account based on the fundamentals presented by the MGH and FCS, and associated complementary paradigm shifts.

PaleoClim, high spatial resolution paleoclimate surfaces for global land areas

High-resolution, easily accessible paleoclimate data are essential for environmental, evolutionary, and ecological studies. The availability of bioclimatic layers derived from climatic simulations representing conditions of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene has revolutionized the study of species responses to Late Quaternary climate change. Yet, integrative studies of the impacts of climate change in the Early Pleistocene and Pliocene - periods in which recent speciation events are known to concentrate - have been hindered by the limited availability of downloadable, user-friendly climatic descriptors. Here we present PaleoClim, a free database of downscaled paleoclimate outputs at 2.5-minute resolution (~5 km at equator) that includes surface temperature and precipitation estimates from snapshot-style climate model simulations using HadCM3, a version of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre General Circulation Model. As of now, the database contains climatic data for three key time periods spanning from 3.3 to 0.787 million years ago: the Marine Isotope Stage 19 (MIS19) in the Pleistocene (~787 ka), the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3.264-3.025 Ma), and MIS M2 in the Late Pliocene (~3.3 Ma).

Disentangling the genetic effects of refugial isolation and range expansion in a trans-continentally distributed species

In wide-ranging taxa with historically dynamic ranges, past allopatric isolation and range expansion can both influence the current structure of genetic diversity. Considering alternate historical scenarios involving expansion from either a single refugium or from multiple refugia can be useful in differentiating the effects of isolation and expansion. Here, we examined patterns of genetic variability in the trans-continentally distributed painted turtle (Chrysemys picta). We utilized an existing phylogeographic dataset for the mitochondrial control region and generated additional data from nine populations for the mitochondrial control region (n = 302) and for eleven nuclear microsatellite loci (n = 247). We created a present-day ecological niche model (ENM) for C. picta and hindcast this model to three reconstructions of historical climate to define three potential scenarios with one, two, or three refugia. Finally, we employed spatially-explicit coalescent simulations and an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework to test which scenario best fit the observed genetic data. Simulations indicated that phylogeographic and multilocus population-level sampling both could differentiate among refugial scenarios, although inferences made using mitochondrial data were less accurate when a longer coalescence time was assumed. Furthermore, all empirical genetic datasets were most consistent with expansion from a single refugium based on ABC. Our results indicate a stronger role for post-glacial range expansion, rather than isolation in allopatric refugia followed by range expansion, in structuring diversity in this species. To distinguish among complex historical scenarios, we recommend explicitly modeling the effects of range expansion and evaluating alternate refugial scenarios for wide-ranging taxa.

Geographical and environmental determinants of the genetic structure of wild barley in southeastern Anatolia

Despite the global value of barley, compared to its wild progenitor, genetic variation in this crop has been drastically reduced due to the process of domestication, selection and improvement. In the medium term, this will negatively impact both the vulnerability and yield stability of barley against biotic and abiotic stresses under climate change. Returning to the crop wild relatives (CWR) as sources of new and beneficial alleles is a clear option for enhancing the resilience of diversity and adaptation to climate change. Southeastern Anatolia constitutes an important part of the natural distribution of wild barley in the Fertile Crescent where important crops were initially domesticated. In this study, we investigated genetic diversity in a comprehensive collection of 281 geo-referenced wild barley individuals from 92 collection sites with sample sizes ranging from 1 to 9 individuals per site, collected from southeastern Anatolia and 131 domesticated genotypes from 49 different countries using 40 EST-SSR markers. A total of 375 alleles were detected across entire collection, of which 283 were carried by domesticated genotypes and 316 alleles were present in the wild gene pool. The number of unique alleles in the wild and in the domesticated gene pool was 92 and 59, respectively. The population structure at K = 3 suggested two groups of wild barley namely G1-W consisting wild barley genotypes from the western part and G1-E comprising those mostly from the eastern part of the study area, with a sharp separation from the domesticated gene pool. The geographic and climatic factors jointly showed significant effects on the distribution of wild barley. Using a Latent Factor Mixed Model, we identified four candidate loci potentially involved in adaptation of wild barley to three environmental factors: temperature seasonality, mean temperature of driest quarter, and precipitation of coldest quarter. These loci are probably the targets of genomic regions, with potential roles against abiotic stresses.

Climatic and Soil Factors Shape the Demographical History and Genetic Diversity of a Deciduous Oak (Quercus liaotungensis) in Northern China

Past and current climatic changes have affected the demography, patterns of genetic diversity, and genetic structure of extant species. The study of these processes provides valuable information to forecast evolutionary changes and to identify conservation priorities. Here, we sequenced two functional nuclear genes and four chloroplast DNA regions for 105 samples from 21 populations of Quercus liaotungensis across its distribution range. Coalescent-based Bayesian analysis, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and ecological niche modeling (ENM) were integrated to investigate the genetic patterns and demographical history of this species. Association estimates including Mantel tests and multiple linear regressions were used to infer the effects of geographical and ecological factors on temporal genetic variation and diversity of this oak species. Based on multiple loci, Q. liaotungensis populations clustered into two phylogenetic groups; this grouping pattern could be the result of adaptation to habitats with different temperature and precipitation seasonality conditions. Demographical reconstructions and ENMs suggest an expansion decline trend of this species during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. Association analyses based on nuclear data indicated that intraspecific genetic differentiation of Q. liaotungensis was clearly correlated with ecological distance; specifically, the genetic diversity of this species was significantly correlated with temperature seasonality and soil pH, but negatively correlated with precipitation. Our study highlights the impact of Pleistocene climate oscillations on the demographic history of a tree species in Northern China, and suggests that climatic and soil conditions are the major factors shaping the genetic diversity and population structure of Q. liaotungensis.

Union of phylogeography and landscape genetics

Phylogeography and landscape genetics have arisen within the past 30 y. Phylogeography is said to be the bridge between population genetics and systematics, and landscape genetics the bridge between landscape ecology and population genetics. Both fields can be considered as simply the amalgamation of classic biogeography with genetics and genomics; however, they differ in the temporal, spatial, and organismal scales addressed and the methodology used. I begin by briefly summarizing the history and purview of each field and suggest that, even though landscape genetics is a younger field (coined in 2003) than phylogeography (coined in 1987), early studies by Dobzhansky on the "microgeographic races" of Linanthus parryae in the Mojave Desert of California and Drosophila pseudoobscura across the western United States presaged the fields by over 40 y. Recent advances in theory, models, and methods have allowed researchers to better synthesize ecological and evolutionary processes in their quest to answer some of the most basic questions in biology. I highlight a few of these novel studies and emphasize three major areas ripe for investigation using spatially explicit genomic-scale data: the biogeography of speciation, lineage divergence and species delimitation, and understanding adaptation through time and space. Examples of areas in need of study are highlighted, and I end by advocating a union of phylogeography and landscape genetics under the more general field: biogeography.

Phenotypes in phylogeography: Species' traits, environmental variation, and vertebrate diversification

Almost 30 y ago, the field of intraspecific phylogeography laid the foundation for spatially explicit and genealogically informed studies of population divergence. With new methods and markers, the focus in phylogeography shifted to previously unrecognized geographic genetic variation, thus reducing the attention paid to phenotypic variation in those same diverging lineages. Although phenotypic differences among lineages once provided the main data for studies of evolutionary change, the mechanisms shaping phenotypic differentiation and their integration with intraspecific genetic structure have been underexplored in phylogeographic studies. However, phenotypes are targets of selection and play important roles in species performance, recognition, and diversification. Here, we focus on three questions. First, how can phenotypes elucidate mechanisms underlying concordant or idiosyncratic responses of vertebrate species evolving in shared landscapes? Second, what mechanisms underlie the concordance or discordance of phenotypic and phylogeographic differentiation? Third, how can phylogeography contribute to our understanding of functional phenotypic evolution? We demonstrate that the integration of phenotypic data extends the reach of phylogeography to explain the origin and maintenance of biodiversity. Finally, we stress the importance of natural history collections as sources of high-quality phenotypic data that span temporal and spatial axes.

Inferring the geographic origin of a range expansion: Latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates inferred from genomic data in an ABC framework with the program x-origin

Climatic or environmental change is not only driving distributional shifts in species today, but it has also caused distributions to expand and contract in the past. Inferences about the geographic locations of past populations especially regions that served as refugia (i.e., source populations) and migratory routes are a challenging endeavour. Refugial areas may be evidenced from fossil records or regions of temporal stability inferred from ecological niche models. Genomic data offer an alternative and broadly applicable source of information about the locality of refugial areas, especially relative to fossil data, which are either unavailable or incomplete for most species. Here, we present a pipeline we developed (called x-origin) for statistically inferring the geographic origin of range expansion using a spatially explicit coalescent model and an approximate Bayesian computation testing framework. In addition to assessing the probability of specific latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates of refugial or source populations, such inferences can also be made accounting for the effects of temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneity, which may impact migration routes. We demonstrate x-origin with an analysis of genomic data collected in the Collared pika that underwent postglacial expansion across Alaska, as well as present an assessment of its accuracy under a known model of expansion to validate the approach.

Genomic signatures of paleodrainages in a freshwater fish along the southeastern coast of Brazil: genetic structure reflects past riverine properties

Past shifts in connectivity in riverine environments (for example, sea-level changes) and the properties of current drainages can act as drivers of genetic structure and demographic processes in riverine population of fishes. However, it is unclear whether the same river properties that structure variation on recent timescales will also leave similar genomic signatures that reflect paleodrainage properties. By characterizing genetic structure in a freshwater fish species (Hollandichthys multifasciatus) from a system of basins along the Atlantic coast of Brazil we test for the effects of paleodrainages caused by sea-level changes during the Pleistocene. Given that the paleodrainage properties differ along the Brazilian coast, we also evaluate whether estimated genetic diversity within paleodrainages can be explained by past riverine properties (i.e., area and number of rivers in a paleodrainage). Our results demonstrate that genetic structure between populations is not just highly concordant with paleodrainages, but that differences in the genetic diversity among paleodrainages correspond to the joint effect of differences in the area encompassed by, and the number of rivers, within a paleodrainage. Our findings extend the influence of current riverine properties on genetic diversity to those associated with past paleodrainage properties. We discuss how these findings may explain the inconsistent support for paleodrainages in structuring divergence from different global regions and the importance of taking into account past conditions for understanding the high species diversity of freshwater fish that we currently observe in the world, and especially in the Neotropics.

Continuation of the genetic divergence of ecological speciation by spatial environmental heterogeneity in island endemic plants

Divergent selection plays a critical role not only as a speciation driver but also in maintaining post-speciation divergence. In the absence of direct evidence, ancestral interspecific gene flow between incipient species can reflect ancient selective pressure for ecological speciation. In the present study, two late-Pleistocene diverged species endemic to Taiwan, Scutellaria playfairii and S. tashiroi, were spatially and ecologically partitioned with partial overlap. Multilocus genome-scan analyses and in silico evaluation revealed ancestral interspecific gene flow but distinct genetic compositions, implying that adaptive divergence contributed to their speciation. Ecological niche modeling and principal component analysis suggested incomplete divergent niches between the two species; the species distribution is therefore consistent with Hutchinson's metaphor of multidimensional hypervolume niches rather than attributable to a single factor. Constraint ordination analysis supported this inference of a combination of variables explaining the genetic structure. The rare occurrence of hybrids in the sympatric population suggested hybrid breakdown, providing further evidence of divergent selection blocking gene flow. The correlation of environmental variables with integrated genetic components demonstrated that environmental heterogeneity maintains the species and population differentiation. This study highlights the importance of environmental heterogeneity and divergent selection for the rapid speciation and recent diversification of island plants.

Consequences of population topology for studying gene flow using link-based landscape genetic methods

Many landscape genetic studies aim to determine the effect of landscape on gene flow between populations. These studies frequently employ link‐based methods that relate pairwise measures of historical gene flow to measures of the landscape and the geographical distance between populations. However, apart from landscape and distance, there is a third important factor that can influence historical gene flow, that is, population topology (i.e., the arrangement of populations throughout a landscape). As the population topology is determined in part by the landscape configuration, I argue that it should play a more prominent role in landscape genetics. Making use of existing literature and theoretical examples, I discuss how population topology can influence results in landscape genetic studies and how it can be taken into account to improve the accuracy of these results. In support of my arguments, I have performed a literature review of landscape genetic studies published during the first half of 2015 as well as several computer simulations of gene flow between populations. First, I argue why one should carefully consider which population pairs should be included in link‐based analyses. Second, I discuss several ways in which the population topology can be incorporated in response and explanatory variables. Third, I outline why it is important to sample populations in such a way that a good representation of the population topology is obtained. Fourth, I discuss how statistical testing for link‐based approaches could be influenced by the population topology. I conclude the article with six recommendations geared toward better incorporating population topology in link‐based landscape genetic studies.

Testing the role of ancient and contemporary landscapes on structuring genetic variation in a specialist grasshopper

Understanding the processes underlying spatial patterns of genetic diversity and structure of natural populations is a central topic in evolutionary biogeography. In this study, we combine data on ancient and contemporary landscape composition to get a comprehensive view of the factors shaping genetic variation across the populations of the scrub‐legume grasshopper (Chorthippus binotatus binotatus) from the biogeographically complex region of southeast Iberia. First, we examined geographical patterns of genetic structure and employed an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to compare different plausible scenarios of population divergence. Second, we used a landscape genetic framework to test for the effects of (1) Late Miocene paleogeography, (2) Pleistocene climate fluctuations, and (3) contemporary topographic complexity on the spatial patterns of population genetic differentiation. Genetic structure and ABC analyses supported the presence of three genetic clusters and a sequential west‐to‐east splitting model that predated the last glacial maximum (LGM, c. 21 Kya). Landscape genetic analyses revealed that population genetic differentiation was primarily shaped by contemporary topographic complexity, but was not explained by any paleogeographic scenario or resistance distances based on climate suitability in the present or during the LGM. Overall, this study emphasizes the need of integrating information on ancient and contemporary landscape composition to get a comprehensive view of their relative importance to explain spatial patterns of genetic variation in organisms inhabiting regions with complex biogeographical histories.

Climatic drivers of leaf traits and genetic divergence in the tree Annona crassiflora: a broad spatial survey in the Brazilian savannas

The Cerrado is the largest South American savanna and encompasses substantial species diversity and environmental variation. Nevertheless, little is known regarding the influence of the environment on population divergence of Cerrado species. Here, we searched for climatic drivers of genetic (nuclear microsatellites) and leaf trait divergence in Annona crassiflora, a widespread tree in the Cerrado. The sampling encompassed all phytogeographic provinces of the continuous area of the Cerrado and included 397 individuals belonging to 21 populations. Populations showed substantial genetic and leaf trait divergence across the species' range. Our data revealed three spatially defined genetic groups (eastern, western and southern) and two morphologically distinct groups (eastern and western only). The east-west split in both the morphological and genetic data closely mirrors previously described phylogeographic patterns of Cerrado species. Generalized linear mixed effects models and multiple regression analyses revealed several climatic factors associated with both genetic and leaf trait divergence among populations of A. crassiflora. Isolation by environment (IBE) was mainly due to temperature seasonality and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Populations that experienced lower precipitation summers and hotter winters had heavier leaves and lower specific leaf area. The southwestern area of the Cerrado had the highest genetic diversity of A. crassiflora, suggesting that this region may have been climatically stable. Overall, we demonstrate that a combination of current climate and past climatic changes have shaped the population divergence and spatial structure of A. crassiflora. However, the genetic structure of A. crassiflora reflects the biogeographic history of the species more strongly than leaf traits, which are more related to current climate.