The heritability of fitness in a wild annual plant population with hierarchical size structure

The relative magnitude of additive genetic vs. residual variation for fitness traits is important in models for predicting the rate of evolution and population persistence in response to changes in the environment. In many annual plants, lifetime reproductive fitness is correlated with end-of-season plant biomass, which can vary significantly from plant to plant in the same population. We measured end-of-season plant biomasses and obtained single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes of plants in a dense, natural population of the annual plant species Impatiens capensis with hierarchical size structure. These data were used to estimate the amount of heritable variation for position in the size hierarchy and for plant biomass. Additive genetic variance for a position in the size hierarchy and plant biomass were both significantly different from zero. These results are discussed in relationship to the theory for the heritability of fitness in natural populations and ecological factors that potentially influence heritable variation for fitness in this species.

Comparing the Predicted versus Realized Rate of Adaptation of Chamaecrista fasciculata to Climate Change

AbstractFisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection (FTNS) can be used in a quantitative genetics framework to predict the rate of adaptation in populations. Here, we estimated the capacity for a wild population of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata to adapt to future environments and compared predicted and realized rates of adaptation. We planted pedigreed seeds from one population into three prairie reconstructions along an east-to-west decreasing precipitation gradient. The FTNS predicted adaptation at all sites, but we found a response to selection that was smaller at the home and westernmost sites and maladaptive at the middle site because of changes in the selective environment between generations. However, mean fitness of the progeny generation at the home and westernmost sites exceeded population replacement, which suggests that the environment was sufficiently favorable to promote population persistence. More studies employing the FTNS are needed to clarify the degree to which predictions of the rate of adaptation are realized and its utility in the conservation of populations at risk of extinction from climate change.

Chasing the fitness optimum: temporal variation in the genetic and environmental expression of life-history traits for a perennial plant

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The ability of plants to track shifting fitness optima is crucial within the context of global change, where increasing environmental extremes may have dramatic consequences for life history, fitness, and ultimately population persistence. However, tracking changing conditions relies on the relationship between genetic and environmental variance, where selection may favour plasticity, the evolution of genetic differences, or both depending on the spatial and temporal scale of environmental heterogeneity.

METHODS

Over three years, we compared the genetic and environmental components of phenological and life-history variation in a common environment for the spring perennial Geum triflorum. Populations were sourced from alvar habitats that exhibit extreme but predictable annual flood-desiccation cycles and prairie habitats that exhibit similar but less predictable variation in water availability.

KEY RESULTS

Heritability was generally higher for early life-history (emergence probability) relative to later life-history traits (total seed mass), indicating that traits associated with establishment are under stronger genetic control relative to later life-history fitness expressions, where plasticity may play a larger role. This pattern was particularly notable in seeds sourced from environmentally extreme but predictable alvar habitats relative to less predictable prairie environments. Fitness landscapes based on seed source origin, largely characterized by varying water availability and flower production, described selection as the degree of maladaptation of seed source environment relative to the prairie common garden environment. Plants from alvar populations were consistently closer to the fitness optimum across all years. Annually, the breadth of the fitness optimum expanded primarily along a moisture gradient, with inclusion of more populations onto the expanding optimum.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of temporally and spatially varying selection in life-history evolution, indicating plasticity may become a primary mechanism needed to track fitness for later life-history events within perennial systems.

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic diversity shed light on endemism of rare Boechera perstellata and its potential vulnerability to climate warming

The rapid pace of contemporary environmental change puts many species at risk, especially rare species constrained by limited capacity to adapt or migrate due to low genetic diversity and/or fitness. But the ability to acclimate can provide another way to persist through change. We compared the capacity of rare Boechera perstellata (Braun's rockcress) and widespread B. laevigata to acclimate to change. We investigated the phenotypic plasticity of growth, biomass allocation, and leaf morphology of individuals of B. perstellata and B. laevigata propagated from seed collected from several populations throughout their ranges in a growth chamber experiment to assess their capacity to acclimate. Concurrently, we assessed the genetic diversity of sampled populations using 17 microsatellite loci to assess evolutionary potential. Plasticity was limited in both rare B. perstellata and widespread B. laevigata, but differences in the plasticity of root traits between species suggest that B. perstellata may have less capacity to acclimate to change. In contrast to its widespread congener, B. perstellata exhibited no plasticity in response to temperature and weaker plastic responses to water availability. As expected, B. perstellata also had lower levels of observed heterozygosity than B. laevigata at the species level, but population-level trends in diversity measures were inconsistent due to high heterogeneity among B. laevigata populations. Overall, the ability of phenotypic plasticity to broadly explain the rarity of B. perstellata versus commonness of B. laevigata is limited. However, some contextual aspects of our plasticity findings compared with its relatively low genetic variability may shed light on the narrow range and habitat associations of B. perstellata and suggest its vulnerability to climate warming due to acclimatory and evolutionary constraints.

Hidden genetic variation in plasticity provides the potential for rapid adaptation to novel environments

Rapid environmental change is forcing populations into environments where plasticity will no longer maintain fitness. When populations are exposed to novel environments, evolutionary theory predicts that genetic variation in fitness will increase and should be associated with genetic differences in plasticity. If true, then genetic variation in plasticity can increase adaptive potential in novel environments, and population persistence via evolutionary rescue is more likely. To test whether genetic variation in fitness increases in novel environments and is associated with plasticity, we transplanted 8149 clones of 314 genotypes of a Sicilian daisy (Senecio chrysanthemifolius) within and outside its native range, and quantified genetic variation in fitness, and plasticity in leaf traits and gene expression. Although mean fitness declined by 87% in the novel environment, genetic variance in fitness increased threefold and was correlated with plasticity in leaf traits. High fitness genotypes showed greater plasticity in gene expression, but lower plasticity in most leaf traits. Interestingly, genotypes with the highest fitness in the novel environment had the lowest fitness at the native site. These results suggest that standing genetic variation in plasticity could help populations to persist and adapt to novel environments, despite remaining hidden in native environments.

Eco-evolutionary causes and consequences of rarity in plants: a meta-analysis

Species differ dramatically in their prevalence in the natural world, with many species characterized as rare due to restricted geographic distribution, low local abundance and/or habitat specialization. We investigated the ecoevolutionary causes and consequences of rarity with phylogenetically controlled metaanalyses of population genetic diversity, fitness and functional traits in rare and common congeneric plant species. Our syntheses included 252 rare species and 267 common congeners reported in 153 peer-reviewed articles published from 1978 to 2020 and one manuscript in press. Rare species have reduced population genetic diversity, depressed fitness and smaller reproductive structures than common congeners. Rare species also could suffer from inbreeding depression and reduced fertilization efficiency. By limiting their capacity to adapt and migrate, these characteristics could influence contemporary patterns of rarity and increase the susceptibility of rare species to rapid environmental change. We recommend that future studies present more nuanced data on the extent of rarity in focal species, expose rare and common species to ecologically relevant treatments, including reciprocal transplants, and conduct quantitative genetic and population genomic analyses across a greater array of systems. This research could elucidate the processes that contribute to rarity and generate robust predictions of extinction risks under global change.

Multiple Mutualism Effects generate synergistic selection and strengthen fitness alignment in the interaction between legumes, rhizobia and mycorrhizal fungi

Nearly all organisms participate in multiple mutualisms, and complementarity within these complex interactions can result in synergistic fitness effects. However, it remains largely untested how multiple mutualisms impact eco-evolutionary dynamics in interacting species. We tested how multiple microbial mutualists-N-fixing bacteria and mycorrrhizal fungi-affected selection and heritability of traits in their shared host plant (Medicago truncatula), as well as fitness alignment between partners. Our results demonstrate for the first time that multiple mutualisms synergistically affect the selection and heritability of host traits and enhance fitness alignment between mutualists. Specifically, we found interaction with multiple microbial symbionts doubled the strength of natural selection on a plant architectural trait, resulted in 2- to 3-fold higher heritability of plant reproductive success, and more than doubled fitness alignment between N-fixing bacteria and plants. These findings show synergism generated by multiple mutualisms extends to key components of microevolutionary change, emphasising the importance of multiple mutualism effects on evolutionary trajectories.

Immigration counter-acts local micro-evolution of a major fitness component: Migration-selection balance in free-living song sparrows

Ongoing adaptive evolution, and resulting “evolutionary rescue” of declining populations, requires additive genetic variation in fitness. Such variation can be increased by gene flow resulting from immigration, potentially facilitating evolution. But, gene flow could in fact constrain rather than facilitate local adaptive evolution if immigrants have low additive genetic values for local fitness. Local migration‐selection balance and micro‐evolutionary stasis could then result. However, key quantitative genetic effects of natural immigration, comprising the degrees to which gene flow increases the total local additive genetic variance yet counteracts local adaptive evolutionary change, have not been explicitly quantified in wild populations. Key implications of gene flow for population and evolutionary dynamics consequently remain unclear. Our quantitative genetic analyses of long‐term data from free‐living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) show that mean breeding value for local juvenile survival to adulthood, a major component of fitness, increased across cohorts more than expected solely due to drift. Such micro‐evolutionary change should be expected given nonzero additive genetic variance and consistent directional selection. However, this evolutionary increase was counteracted by negative additive genetic effects of recent immigrants, which increased total additive genetic variance but prevented a net directional evolutionary increase in total additive genetic value. These analyses imply an approximate quantitative genetic migration‐selection balance in a major fitness component, and hence demonstrate a key mechanism by which substantial additive genetic variation can be maintained yet decoupled from local adaptive evolutionary change.

Estimating the capacity of Chamaecrista fasciculata for adaptation to change in precipitation

Adaptation through natural selection may be the only means by which small and fragmented plant populations will persist through present day environmental change. A population's additive genetic variance for fitness (V_A (W)) represents its immediate capacity to adapt to the environment in which it exists. We evaluated this property for a population of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata through a quantitative genetic experiment in the tallgrass prairie region of the Midwestern United States, where changing climate is predicted to include more variability in rainfall. To reduce incident rainfall, relative to controls receiving ambient rain, we deployed rain exclusion shelters. We found significant V_A (W) in both treatments. We also detected a significant genotype-by-treatment interaction for fitness, which suggests that the genetic basis of the response to natural selection will differ depending on precipitation. For the trait-specific leaf area, we detected maladaptive phenotypic plasticity and an interaction between genotype and environment. Selection for thicker leaves was detected with increased precipitation. These results indicate capacity of this population of C. fasciculata to adapt in situ to environmental change.

Rapid adaptation (or not) in restored plant populations

Mismatches between the traits of a colonizing population and a novel habitat can generate strong selection, potentially resulting in rapid adaptation. However, for most colonization events, it can be difficult to detect rapid adaptation or distinguish it from nonadaptive evolutionary changes. Here, I take advantage of a replicated prairie restoration experiment to compare recently established plant populations in two closely located restored prairies to each other and to their shared source population to test for rapid adaptation. Using a reciprocal transplant experiment six years after the populations were established, I found that one restored plant population showed evidence of adaptation, outperforming the other restored population when grown at its home site. In contrast, I detected no evidence for adaptation at the other site. These findings demonstrate that while rapid adaptation can occur in colonizing plant populations, it may not be the rule. Better understanding of when adaptation may or may not occur in these contexts may help us use evolution to our advantage, potentially improving establishment of desirable species in restored habitats.

Plant adaptation to climate change - Where are we?

Climate change poses critical challenges for population persistence in natural communities, agriculture and environmental sustainability, and food security. In this review, we discuss recent progress in climatic adaptation in plants. We evaluate whether climate change exerts novel selection and disrupts local adaptation, whether gene flow can facilitate adaptive responses to climate change, and if adaptive phenotypic plasticity could sustain populations in the short term. Furthermore, we discuss how climate change influences species interactions. Through a more in-depth understanding of these eco-evolutionary dynamics, we will increase our capacity to predict the adaptive potential of plants under climate change. In addition, we review studies that dissect the genetic basis of plant adaptation to climate change. Finally, we highlight key research gaps, ranging from validating gene function, to elucidating molecular mechanisms, expanding research systems from model species to other natural species, testing the fitness consequences of alleles in natural environments, and designing multifactorial studies that more closely reflect the complex and interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. By leveraging interdisciplinary tools (e.g., cutting-edge omics toolkits, novel ecological strategies, newly-developed genome editing technology), researchers can more accurately predict the probability that species can persist through this rapid and intense period of environmental change, as well as cultivate crops to withstand climate change, and conserve biodiversity in natural systems.

Natural and human-induced environmental changes and their effects on adaptive potential of wild animal populations

A major challenge of evolutionary ecology over the next decades is to understand and predict the consequences of the current rapid and important environmental changes on wild populations. Extinction risk of species is linked to populations' evolutionary potential and to their ability to express adaptive phenotypic plasticity. There is thus a vital need to quantify how selective pressures, quantitative genetics parameters, and phenotypic plasticity, for multiple traits in wild animal populations, may vary with changes in the environment. Here I review our previous research that integrated ecological and evolutionary theories with molecular ecology, quantitative genetics, and long-term monitoring of individually marked wild animals. Our results showed that assessing evolutionary and plastic changes over time and space, using multi-trait approaches, under a realistic range of environmental conditions are crucial steps toward improving our understanding of the evolution and adaptation of natural populations. Our current and future work focusses on assessing the limits of adaptive potential by determining the factors constraining the evolvability of plasticity, those generating covariation among genetic variance and selection, as well as indirect genetic effects, which can affect population's capacity to adjust to environmental changes. In doing so, we aim to provide an improved assessment of the spatial and temporal scale of evolutionary processes in wild animal populations.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

Resource availability alters fitness trade-offs: implications for evolution in stressful environments

PREMISE

Industrialization and human activities have elevated temperatures and caused novel precipitation patterns, altering soil moisture and nutrient availability. Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change requires information on the agents of selection that drive local adaptation and influence resource acquisition and allocation. Here, we examined the contribution of nutrient and drought stress to local adaptation, and we tested whether trade-offs across fitness components constrain or facilitate adaptation under resource stress.

METHODS

We exposed 35 families of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) to three levels of water and two levels of nutrient supply in a factorial design in the greenhouse. We sourced maternal families from a broad elevational gradient (2499-3530 m a.s.l.), representing disparate soil moisture and nutrient availability.

RESULTS

Concordant with local adaptation, maternal families from arid, low-elevation populations had enhanced fecundity under severe drought over those from more mesic, high-elevation sites. Furthermore, fitness trade-offs between growth and reproductive success depended on the environmental context. Under high, but not low, nutrient levels, we found a negative phenotypic relationship between the probability of reproduction and growth rate. Similarly, a negative phenotypic association only emerged between fecundity and growth under severe drought stress, not the benign water treatment levels, indicating that stressful resource environments alter the direction of trait correlations. Genetic covariances were broadly concordant with these phenotypic patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high heritabilities in all fitness components across treatments, trade-offs between growth and reproduction could constrain adaptation to increasing drought stress and novel nutrient levels.

Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains

Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance-covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson-Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations.

Additive genetic variance for lifetime fitness and the capacity for adaptation in an annual plant

The immediate capacity for adaptation under current environmental conditions is directly proportional to the additive genetic variance for fitness, V_A (W). Mean absolute fitness, W ¯ , is predicted to change at the rate V A ( W ) W ¯ , according to Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. Despite ample research evaluating degree of local adaptation, direct assessment of V_A (W) and the capacity for ongoing adaptation is exceedingly rare. We estimated V_A (W) and W ¯ in three pedigreed populations of annual Chamaecrista fasciculata, over three years in the wild. Contrasting with common expectations, we found significant V_A (W) in all populations and years, predicting increased mean fitness in subsequent generations (0.83 to 6.12 seeds per individual). Further, we detected two cases predicting "evolutionary rescue," where selection on standing V_A (W) was expected to increase fitness of declining populations ( W ¯ < 1.0) to levels consistent with population sustainability and growth. Within populations, inter-annual differences in genetic expression of fitness were striking. Significant genotype-by-year interactions reflected modest correlations between breeding values across years, indicating temporally variable selection at the genotypic level that could contribute to maintaining V_A (W). By directly estimating V_A (W) and total lifetime W ¯ , our study presents an experimental approach for studies of adaptive capacity in the wild.