When does gene flow facilitate evolutionary rescue?

Evolutionary rescue via niche construction: Infrequent construction can prevent post-invasion extinction

A population experiencing habitat loss can avoid extinction by undergoing genetic adaptation-a process known as evolutionary rescue. Here we analytically approximate the probability of evolutionary rescue via a niche-constructing mutation that allows carriers to convert a novel, unfavorable reproductive habitat to a favorable state at a cost to their fecundity. We analyze competition between mutants and non-niche-constructing wild types, who ultimately require the constructed habitats to reproduce. We find that over-exploitation of the constructed habitats by wild types can generate damped oscillations in population size shortly after mutant invasion, thereby decreasing the probability of rescue. Such post-invasion extinction is less probable when construction is infrequent, habitat loss is common, the reproductive environment is large, or the population's carrying capacity is small. Under these conditions, wild types are less likely to encounter the constructed habitats and, consequently, mutants are more likely to fix. These results suggest that, without a mechanism that deters wild type inheritance of the constructed habitats, a population undergoing rescue via niche construction may remain prone to short-timescale extinction despite successful mutant invasion.

Facilitated Adaptation as A Conservation Tool in the Present Climate Change Context: A Methodological Guide

Climate change poses a novel threat to biodiversity that urgently requires the development of adequate conservation strategies. Living organisms respond to environmental change by migrating to locations where their ecological niche is preserved or by adapting to the new environment. While the first response has been used to develop, discuss and implement the strategy of assisted migration, facilitated adaptation is only beginning to be considered as a potential approach. Here, we present a review of the conceptual framework for facilitated adaptation, integrating advances and methodologies from different disciplines. Briefly, facilitated adaptation involves a population reinforcement that introduces beneficial alleles to enable the evolutionary adaptation of a focal population to pressing environmental conditions. To this purpose, we propose two methodological approaches. The first one (called pre-existing adaptation approach) is based on using pre-adapted genotypes existing in the focal population, in other populations, or even in closely related species. The second approach (called de novo adaptation approach) aims to generate new pre-adapted genotypes from the diversity present in the species through artificial selection. For each approach, we present a stage-by-stage procedure, with some techniques that can be used for its implementation. The associated risks and difficulties of each approach are also discussed.

The immediate costs and long-term benefits of assisted gene flow in large populations

With the genetic health of many plant and animal populations deteriorating due to climate change outpacing adaptation, interventions, such as assisted gene flow (AGF), may provide genetic variation necessary for populations to adapt to climate change. We ran genetic simulations to mimic different AGF scenarios in large populations and measured their outcomes on population-level fitness to determine circumstances in which it is worthwhile to perform AGF. In the absence of inbreeding depression, AGF was beneficial within a few generations only when introduced genotypes had much higher fitness than local individuals and traits affecting fitness were controlled by a few genes of large effect. AGF was harmful over short periods (e.g., first ∼10-20 generations) if there was strong outbreeding depression or introduced deleterious genetic variation. When the adaptive trait was controlled by many loci of small effect, the benefits of AGF took over 10 generations to realize-potentially too long for most climate-related management scenarios. The genomic integrity of the recipient population typically remained intact following AGF; the amount of genetic material from the donor population usually constituted no more of the recipient population's genome than the fraction of the population introduced. Significant genomic turnover (e.g., >50% replacement) only occurred when the selective advantage of the adaptive trait and translocation fraction were extremely high. Our results will be useful when adaptive management is used to maintain the genetic health and productivity of large populations under climate change.

Hybridization may aid evolutionary rescue of an endangered East African passerine

Introgressive hybridization is a process that enables gene flow across species barriers through the backcrossing of hybrids into a parent population. This may make genetic material, potentially including relevant environmental adaptations, rapidly available in a gene pool. Consequently, it has been postulated to be an important mechanism for enabling evolutionary rescue, that is the recovery of threatened populations through rapid evolutionary adaptation to novel environments. However, predicting the likelihood of such evolutionary rescue for individual species remains challenging. Here, we use the example of Zosterops silvanus, an endangered East African highland bird species suffering from severe habitat loss and fragmentation, to investigate whether hybridization with its congener Zosterops flavilateralis might enable evolutionary rescue of its Taita Hills population. To do so, we employ an empirically parameterized individual-based model to simulate the species' behaviour, physiology and genetics. We test the population's response to different assumptions of mating behaviour and multiple scenarios of habitat change. We show that as long as hybridization does take place, evolutionary rescue of Z. silvanus is likely. Intermediate hybridization rates enable the greatest long-term population growth, due to trade-offs between adaptive and maladaptive introgressed alleles. Habitat change did not have a strong effect on population growth rates, as Z. silvanus is a strong disperser and landscape configuration is therefore not the limiting factor for hybridization. Our results show that targeted gene flow may be a promising avenue to help accelerate the adaptation of endangered species to novel environments, and demonstrate how to combine empirical research and mechanistic modelling to deliver species-specific predictions for conservation planning.

The role of spatial structure in multi-deme models of evolutionary rescue

Genetic variation and population sizes are critical factors for successful adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Gene flow between sub-populations is a potent mechanism to provide such variation and can hence facilitate adaptation, for instance by increasing genetic variation or via the introduction of beneficial variants. On the other hand, if gene flow between different habitats is too strong, locally beneficial alleles may not be able to establish permanently. In the context of evolutionary rescue, intermediate levels of gene flow are therefore often optimal for maximizing a species chance for survival in metapopulations without spatial structure. To which extent and under which conditions gene flow facilitates or hinders evolutionary rescue in spatially structured populations remains unresolved. We address this question by studying the differences between evolutionary rescue in the island model and in the stepping stone model in a gradually deteriorating habitat. We show that evolutionary rescue is modulated by the rate of gene flow between different habitats, which in turn depends strongly on the spatial structure and the pattern of environmental deterioration. We use these insights to show that in many cases spatially structured models can be translated into a simpler island model using an appropriately scaled effective migration rate.

The first steps toward a global pandemic: Reconstructing the demographic history of parasite host switches in its native range

Host switching allows parasites to expand their niches. However, successful switching may require suites of adaptations and also may decrease performance on the old host. As a result, reductions in gene flow accompany many host switches, driving speciation. Because host switches tend to be rapid, it is difficult to study them in real-time, and their demographic parameters remain poorly understood. As a result, fundamental factors that control subsequent parasite evolution, such as the size of the switching population or the extent of immigration from the original host, remain largely unknown. To shed light on the host switching process, we explored how host switches occur in independent host shifts by two ectoparasitic honey bee mites (Varroa destructor and V. jacobsoni). Both switched to the western honey bee (Apis mellifera) after being brought into contact with their ancestral host (Apis cerana), ~70 and ~12 years ago, respectively. Varroa destructor subsequently caused worldwide collapses of honey bee populations. Using whole-genome sequencing on 63 mites collected in their native ranges from both the ancestral and novel hosts, we were able to reconstruct the known temporal dynamics of the switch. We further found multiple previously undiscovered mitochondrial lineages on the novel host, along with the genetic equivalent of tens of individuals that were involved in the initial host switch. Despite being greatly reduced, some gene flow remains between mites adapted to different hosts. Our findings suggest that while reproductive isolation may facilitate the fixation of traits beneficial for exploiting the new host, ongoing genetic exchange may allow genetic amelioration of inbreeding effects.

Adaptation without Specialization Early in a Host Shift

AbstractStudents of speciation debate the role of performance trade-offs across different environments early in speciation. We tested for early performance trade-offs with a host shift experiment using a member of the Enchenopa binotata species complex of treehoppers (Hemiptera: Membracidae). In this clade of plant-feeding insects, different species live on different host plants and exhibit strong behavioral and physiological host specialization. After five generations, the experimental host shifts resulted either in no adaptation or in adaptation without specialization. The latter result was more likely in sympatry; in allopatry, populations on novel host plants were more likely to become extinct. We conclude that in the early stages of speciation, adaptation to novel host plants does not necessarily bring about performance trade-offs on ancestral environments. Adaptation may be facilitated rather than hindered by gene flow, which prevents extinction. Additional causes of specialization and assortative mating may be required if colonization of novel environments is to result in speciation.

The Effect of Habitat Choice on Evolutionary Rescue in Subdivided Populations

AbstractEvolutionary rescue is the process by which a population, in response to an environmental change, successfully avoids extinction through adaptation. In spatially structured environments, dispersal can affect the probability of rescue. Here, we model an environment consisting of patches that degrade one after another, and we investigate the probability of rescue by a mutant adapted to the degraded habitat. We focus on the effects of dispersal and of immigration biases. We identify up to three regions delimiting the effect of dispersal on the probability of evolutionary rescue: (i) starting from low dispersal rates, the probability of rescue increases with dispersal; (ii) at intermediate dispersal rates, it decreases; and (iii) at large dispersal rates, it increases again with dispersal, except if mutants are too counterselected in not-yet-degraded patches. The probability of rescue is generally highest when mutant and wild-type individuals preferentially immigrate into patches that have already undergone environmental change. Additionally, we find that mutants that will eventually rescue the population most likely first appear in nondegraded patches. Overall, our results show that habitat choice, compared with the often-studied unbiased immigration scheme, can substantially alter the dynamics of population survival and adaptation to new environments.

Demography, genetic diversity and expansion load in the colonizing species Leontodon longirostris (Asteraceae) throughout its native range

Unravelling the evolutionary processes underlying range expansions is fundamental to understand the distribution of organisms, as well as to predict their future responses to environmental change. Predictions for range expansions include a loss of genetic diversity and an accumulation of deleterious alleles along the expansion axis, which can decrease fitness at the range-front (expansion load). In plants, empirical studies supporting expansion load are scarce, and its effects remain to be tested outside a few model species. Leontodon longirostris is a colonizing Asteraceae with a widespread distribution in the Western Mediterranean, providing a particularly interesting system to gain insight into the factors that can enhance or mitigate expansion load. In this study, we produced a first genome draft for the species, covering 418 Mbp (~53% of the genome). Although incomplete, this draft was suitable to design a targeted sequencing of ~1.5 Mbp in 238 L. longirostris plants from 21 populations distributed along putative colonization routes in the Iberian Peninsula. Inferred demographic history supports a range expansion from southern Iberia around 40,000 years ago, reaching northern Iberia around 25,000 years ago. The expansion was accompanied by a loss of genetic diversity and a significant increase in the proportion of putatively deleterious mutations. However, levels of expansion load in L. longirostris were smaller than those found in other plant species, which can be explained, at least partially, by its high dispersal ability, the self-incompatible mating system, and the fact that the expansion occurred along a strong environmental cline.

Using Reciprocal Transplants to Assess Local Adaptation, Genetic Rescue, and Sexual Selection in Newly Established Populations

Small populations establishing on colonization fronts have to adapt to novel environments with limited genetic variation. The pace at which they can adapt, and the influence of genetic variation on their success, are key questions for understanding intraspecific diversity. To investigate these topics, we performed a reciprocal transplant experiment between two recently founded populations of brown trout in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands. Using individual tagging and genetic assignment methods, we tracked the fitness of local and foreign individuals, as well as the fitness of their offspring over two generations. In both populations, although not to the same extent, gene flow occurred between local and foreign gene pools. In both cases, however, we failed to detect obvious footprints of local adaptation (which should limit gene flow) and only weak support for genetic rescue (which should enhance gene flow). In the population where gene flow from foreign individuals was low, no clear differences were observed between the fitness of local, foreign, and F1 hybrid individuals. In the population where gene flow was high, foreign individuals were successful due to high mating success rather than high survival, and F1 hybrids had the same fitness as pure local offspring. These results suggest the importance of considering sexual selection, rather than just local adaptation and genetic rescue, when evaluating the determinants of success in small and recently founded populations.