Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains

Forecasting species' responses to climate change using space-for-time substitution

To anticipate species' responses to climate change, ecologists have largely relied on the space-for-time-substitution (SFTS) approach. However, the hypothesis and its underlying assumptions have been poorly tested. Here, we detail how the efficacy of using the SFTS approach to predict future locations will depend on species' traits, the ecological context, and whether the species is declining or introduced. We argue that the SFTS approach will be least predictive in the contexts where we most need it to be: forecasting the expansion of the range of introduced species and the recovery of threatened species. We highlight how evaluating the underlying assumptions, along with improved methods, will rapidly advance our understanding of the applicability of the SFTS approach, particularly in the context of modelling the distribution of species.

Stage response of vegetation dynamics to urbanization in megacities: A case study of Changsha City, China

Urban vegetation affects urban microclimate and maintains biodiversity, which is vital to the social-ecological system. However, there is a lack of research on quantitatively identifying urbanization stage impact on vegetation dynamics, and the stage difference in the response of vegetation dynamics to urbanization characteristics is not clear. In this study, taking Changsha City as an example, we explored the response of vegetation dynamics to urbanization, and identified the impact stages of urbanization on vegetation dynamics as well as their social-ecological characteristics. The results showed that the vegetation dynamics in Changsha City presented spatial pattern of "increase-decrease-increase" from downtown to outside in the past 20 years. The population density, GDP density and construction land proportion firstly inhibited vegetation growth, and then promoted it, with the turning points of 141.58 million yuan/km², 1205 person/km², and 19.80 %, respectively. Then, the urbanization impact on vegetation dynamics was quantitatively divided into three stages according to the vegetation change speed, and in different stages, urbanization impacts on vegetation dynamics were compared. This study illustrated the typical stage feature of the urbanization impact on vegetation dynamics.

Opposing shifts in distributions of chlorophyll concentration and composition in grassland under warming

Global warming has significantly altered the distribution and productivity of vegetation owing to shifts in plant functional traits. However, chlorophyll adaptations-good representative of plant production-in grasslands have not been investigated on a large scale, hindering ecological predictions of climate change. Three grassland transects with a natural temperature gradient were designed in the Tibetan, Mongolian, and Loess Plateau to describe the changes in chlorophyll under different warming scenarios for 475 species. In the three plateaus, variations and distributions of species chlorophyll concentration and composition were compared. The results showed that the means of chlorophyll concentration and composition (chlorophyll a/b) increased with the mean annual temperature. Still, their distributions shifted in opposite manners: chlorophyll concentration was distributed in a broader but more differential manner, while chlorophyll composition was distributed in a narrower but more uniform manner. Compared to chlorophyll concentration, chlorophyll composition was more conservative, with a slight shift in distribution. At the regional level, the chlorophyll concentration and composition depend on the limitations of the local climate or resources. The results implied that warming might drive shifts in grassland chlorophyll distribution mainly by alternations in species composition. Large-scale chlorophyll investigations will be useful for developing prediction techniques.

Interaction of climate change, potentially toxic elements (PTEs), and topography on plant diversity and ecosystem functions in a high-altitude mountainous region of the Tibetan Plateau

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) generated from mining activities have affected ecological diversity and ecosystem functions around the world. Accurately assessing the long-term effects of PTEs is critical to classifying recoverable areas and proposing management strategies. Mining activities that shape geographical patterns of biodiversity in individual regions are increasingly understood, but the complex interactions on broad scales and in changing environments are still unclear. In this study, we developed a series of empirical models that simulate the changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in mine-affected regions along elevation gradients (1500-3600 m a.s.l) in the metal-rich Qilian Mountains (∼800 km) on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (China). Our results confirmed the crucial role of PTEs dispersal, topography, and climatic heterogeneity in the diversification of plant community composition. On average, 54% of the changes in ecosystem functions were explained by the interactions among topography, climate, and PTEs. However, merely 30% of the changes were correlated with a single driver. The changes in species composition (explained variables = 94.8%) in the PTE-polluted habitats located in the warm and humid low-elevation deserts and grasslands were greater than those occurring in the dry alpine deserts and grasslands. The ecosystem functions (soil characteristics, nutrient migration, and plant biomass) experienced greater changes in the humid low-elevation grasslands and alpine deserts. Our results suggest that the processes driven by climate or other factors can result in high-altitude PTE-affected habitat facing greater threats.

Warming Climate Is Reducing the Diversity of Dominant Microbes in the Largest High Arctic Lake

Temperatures in the Arctic are expected to increase dramatically over the next century, and transform high latitude watersheds. However, little is known about how microbial communities and their underlying metabolic processes will be affected by these environmental changes in freshwater sedimentary systems. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed sediments from Lake Hazen, NU Canada. Here, we exploit the spatial heterogeneity created by varying runoff regimes across the watershed of this uniquely large high-latitude lake to test how a transition from low to high runoff, used as one proxy for climate change, affects the community structure and functional potential of dominant microbes. Based on metagenomic analyses of lake sediments along these spatial gradients, we show that increasing runoff leads to a decrease in taxonomic and functional diversity of sediment microbes. Our findings are likely to apply to other, smaller, glacierized watersheds typical of polar or high latitude ecosystems; we can predict that such changes will have far reaching consequences on these ecosystems by affecting nutrient biogeochemical cycling, the direction and magnitude of which are yet to be determined.

Influence of degradation on soil water availability in an alpine swamp meadow on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau

Degraded ecosystems refer to systems that deviate from their natural state as a result of natural or anthropogenic disturbances. Alpine swamp meadows on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau have dramatically degraded owing to climate change, overgrazing, and rodents. Understanding the influence of meadow degradation on soil water availability is essential for the development of hydrological models and alpine swamp meadows restoration, which has been poorly explored in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we analyzed how degradation affects variation in soil water availability with a series of parameters derived from soil moisture content and soil water retention curves. Our results showed that (1) soil moisture content consistently decreased with degradation and increased with soil depth; (2) soil water retention curves decreased with increasing degradation due to coarser soils and organic matter loss. Field water capacity and the permanent wilting point decreased, whereas the air entry value increased with the severity of degradation; and (3) soil water availability, as represented by soil water potential, available soil water content and fraction was less responsive to degradation than individual soil moisture content or soil water retention curves, which showed similar decreasing trends. However, soil water potential, available soil water content and fraction under moderate and severe degradation were relatively lower than those under light degradation, especially in deep soil layers (>20 cm). Thus, swamp meadow degradation negatively influences soil water availability, which might impede water absorption by deeply rooted species, thereby inducing soil-water stress and possibly increasing drought vulnerability.

Air temperature optima of vegetation productivity across global biomes

The global distribution of the optimum air temperature for ecosystem-level gross primary productivity ([Formula: see text]) is poorly understood, despite its importance for ecosystem carbon uptake under future warming. We provide empirical evidence for the existence of such an optimum, using measurements of in situ eddy covariance and satellite-derived proxies, and report its global distribution. [Formula: see text] is consistently lower than the physiological optimum temperature of leaf-level photosynthetic capacity, which typically exceeds 30 °C. The global average [Formula: see text] is estimated to be 23 ± 6 °C, with warmer regions having higher [Formula: see text] values than colder regions. In tropical forests in particular, [Formula: see text] is close to growing-season air temperature and is projected to fall below it under all scenarios of future climate, suggesting a limited safe operating space for these ecosystems under future warming.

Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10- to 40-fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.

Vegetation distribution along mountain environmental gradient predicts shifts in plant community response to climate change in alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Plants are particularly sensitive to climate change in alpine ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau. The various mountain micro-climates provide a natural gradient for space-for-time substitution research that plant responses to climate change. In this study, we surveyed the plant community in term of species composition, diversity and biomass across 189 sites on a hill of the Tibetan Plateau and analysed the individual and integrated effects of soil temperature and moisture on the plant community. The results showed that, at the quadrat scale, there were decrease in richness of 1.08 species for every 1 °C increase in soil temperature and 3.56 species for every 10% decrease in soil moisture. The integrated effects of increasing soil temperature and decreasing moisture are expected to lead to a rapid decrease in species richness. Biomass had no significant correlation with soil temperature but significantly decreased with soil moisture decreasing (p < 0.01). Biomass would decrease when soil moisture was below 20%, no matter how the change of soil temperature. We also found that gramineae and perennial forbs were sensitive to climate change. With soil temperature increased, the proportion of gramineae increased, whereas the proportion of perennial forbs decreased. The integrated effects of soil temperature increasing and moisture decreasing caused a shift from sedge-controlled to gramineae-controlled communities in alpine meadow. This study not only enhances our understanding of mountain plant community dynamics under climate change, but also predicts the shift of vegetation response to climate change on high-elevation alpine meadow.

Temperature-dependent adaptation allows fish to meet their food across their species' range

In seasonal environments, timing is everything: Ecosystem dynamics are controlled by how well predators can match their prey in space and time. This match of predator and prey is thought to be particularly critical for the vulnerable larval life stages of many fish, where limited parental investment means that population survival can depend on how well larvae match the timing of their food. We develop and apply novel metrics of thermal time to estimate the timing of unobserved stages of fish larvae and their prey across the north Atlantic. The result shows that previously identified life-history strategies are adaptive in that they allow parents to "predict" a beneficial environment for their offspring and meet larval fish food timing that varies by 99 days across a species' range.

Adaptive differentiation of Festuca rubra along a climate gradient revealed by molecular markers and quantitative traits

Species response to climate change is influenced by predictable (selective) and unpredictable (random) evolutionary processes. To understand how climate change will affect present-day species, it is necessary to assess their adaptive potential and distinguish it from the effects of random processes. This will allow predicting how different genotypes will respond to forecasted environmental change. Space for time substitution experiments are an elegant way to test the response of present day populations to climate variation in real time. Here we assess neutral and putatively adaptive variation in 11 populations of Festuca rubra situated along crossed gradients of temperature and moisture using molecular markers and phenotypic measurements, respectively. By comparing population differentiation in putatively neutral molecular markers and phenotypic traits (QST-FST comparisons), we show the existence of adaptive differentiation in phenotypic traits and their plasticity across the climatic gradient. The observed patterns of differentiation are due to the high genotypic and phenotypic differentiation of the populations from the coldest (and wettest) environment. Finally, we observe statistically significant covariation between markers and phenotypic traits, which is likely caused by isolation by adaptation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the current adaptation and evolutionary potential to face climate change of a widespread species. They can also be extrapolated to understand how the studied populations will adjust to upcoming climate change without going through the lengthy process of phenotyping.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C^-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation.

Historical precipitation predictably alters the shape and magnitude of microbial functional response to soil moisture

Soil moisture constrains the activity of decomposer soil microorganisms, and in turn the rate at which soil carbon returns to the atmosphere. While increases in soil moisture are generally associated with increased microbial activity, historical climate may constrain current microbial responses to moisture. However, it is not known if variation in the shape and magnitude of microbial functional responses to soil moisture can be predicted from historical climate at regional scales. To address this problem, we measured soil enzyme activity at 12 sites across a broad climate gradient spanning 442-887 mm mean annual precipitation. Measurements were made eight times over 21 months to maximize sampling during different moisture conditions. We then fit saturating functions of enzyme activity to soil moisture and extracted half saturation and maximum activity parameter values from model fits. We found that 50% of the variation in maximum activity parameters across sites could be predicted by 30-year mean annual precipitation, an indicator of historical climate, and that the effect is independent of variation in temperature, soil texture, or soil carbon concentration. Based on this finding, we suggest that variation in the shape and magnitude of soil microbial response to soil moisture due to historical climate may be remarkably predictable at regional scales, and this approach may extend to other systems. If historical contingencies on microbial activities prove to be persistent in the face of environmental change, this approach also provides a framework for incorporating historical climate effects into biogeochemical models simulating future global change scenarios.