Projections of climate-driven changes in tuna vertical habitat based on species-specific differences in blood oxygen affinity

Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen

The ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated based on temperature alone. Notable predictability differences exist among ecotypes differing in temperature sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability, especially along the northeast coast with predictability timescale ranging from 2 to 10 years. This tool will be critical in predicting marine habitat shifts in face of a changing climate.

Highly active fish in low oxygen environments: vertical movements and behavioural responses of bigeye and yellowfin tunas to oxygen minimum zones in the eastern Pacific Ocean

Oxygen minimum zones in the open ocean are predicted to significantly increase in volume over the coming decades as a result of anthropogenic climatic warming. The resulting reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) in the pelagic realm is likely to have detrimental impacts on water-breathing organisms, particularly those with higher metabolic rates, such as billfish, tunas, and sharks. However, little is known about how free-living fish respond to low DO environments, and therefore, the effect increasing OMZs will have cannot be predicted reliably. Here, we compare the responses of two active predators (bigeye tuna Thunnus obesus and yellowfin tuna Thunnus albacares) to DO at depth throughout the eastern Pacific Ocean. Using time-series data from 267 tagged tunas (59,910 days) and 3D maps of modelled DO, we find that yellowfin tuna respond to low DO at depth by spending more time in shallower, more oxygenated waters. By contrast, bigeye tuna, which forage at deeper depths well below the thermocline, show fewer changes in their use of the water column. However, we find that bigeye tuna increased the frequency of brief upward vertical excursions they performed by four times when DO at depth was lower, but with no concomitant significant difference in temperature, suggesting that this behaviour is driven in part by the need to re-oxygenate following time spent in hypoxic waters. These findings suggest that increasing OMZs will impact the behaviour of these commercially important species, and it is therefore likely that other water-breathing predators with higher metabolic rates will face similar pressures. A more comprehensive understanding of the effect of shoaling OMZs on pelagic fish vertical habitat use, which may increase their vulnerability to surface fisheries, will be important to obtain if these effects are to be mitigated by future management actions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00227-023-04366-2.

Seasonally mediated niche partitioning in a vertically compressed pelagic predator guild

Niche partitioning among closely related, sympatric species is a fundamental concept in ecology, and its mechanisms are of broad interest for understanding ecosystem functioning and predicting the impacts of human-driven environmental change. However, identifying mechanisms by which top marine predators partition available resources has been especially challenging given the difficulty of quantifying resource use of large pelagic animals. In the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), three large, highly mobile and ecologically similar pelagic predators (blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), black marlin (Istiompax indica) and sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus)) coexist in a vertically compressed habitat. To evaluate each species' ecological niche, we leveraged a decade of recreational fisheries data, multi-year satellite tracking with high-resolution dive data, and stable isotope analysis. Fishery interaction and telemetry-based three-dimensional seasonal utilization distributions suggested high spatial and temporal overlap among species; however, seasonal and diel variability in diving behaviour produced spatial partitioning, leading to low trophic overlap among species. Expanding oxygen minimum zones will reduce the available vertical habitat within predator guilds, likely leading to increases in interspecific competition. Thus, understanding the mechanisms of habitat partitioning among predators in the vertically compressed ETP can provide insight into how predators in other ocean regions may respond to vertically limited habitats.

Industrial fisheries have reversed the carbon sequestration by tuna carcasses into emissions

To limit climate warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels, most economic sectors will need a rapid transformation toward a net zero emission of CO2 . Tuna fisheries is a key food production sector that burns fossil fuel to operate but also reduces the deadfall of large-bodied fish so the capacity of this natural carbon pump to deep sea. Yet, the carbon balance of tuna populations, so the net difference between CO2 emission due to industrial exploitation and CO2 sequestration by fish deadfall after natural mortality, is still unknown. Here, by considering the dynamics of two main contrasting tuna species (Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus obesus) across the Pacific since the 1980s, we show that most tuna populations became CO2 sources instead of remaining natural sinks. Without considering the supply chain, the main factors associated with this shift are exploitation rate, transshipment intensity, fuel consumption, and climate change. Our study urges for a better global ocean stewardship, by curbing subsidies and limiting transshipment in remote international waters, to quickly rebuild most pelagic fish stocks above their target management reference points and reactivate a neglected carbon pump toward the deep sea as an additional Nature Climate Solution in our portfolio. Even if this potential carbon sequestration by surface unit may appear low compared to that of coastal ecosystems or tropical forests, the ocean covers a vast area and the sinking biomass of dead vertebrates can sequester carbon for around 1000 years in the deep sea. We also highlight the multiple co-benefits and trade-offs from engaging the industrial fisheries sector with carbon neutrality.

Mercury stable isotopes suggest reduced foraging depth in oxygen minimum zones for blue sharks

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are currently expanding across the global ocean due to climate change, leading to a compression of usable habitat for several marine species. Mercury stable isotope compositions provide a spatially and temporally integrated view of marine predator foraging habitat and its variability with environmental conditions. Here, we analyzed mercury isotopes in blue sharks Prionace glauca from normoxic waters in the northeastern Atlantic and from the world's largest and shallowest OMZ, located in the northeastern Pacific (NEP). Blue sharks from the NEP OMZ area showed higher Δ¹⁹⁹Hg values compared to sharks from the northeastern Atlantic, indicating a reduction in foraging depth of approximately 200 m. Our study suggests for the first time that blue shark feeding depth is altered by expanding OMZs and illustrates the use of mercury isotopes to assess the impacts of ocean deoxygenation on the vertical foraging habitat of pelagic predators.

Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean

Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems.

Genome-wide SNPs resolve spatiotemporal patterns of connectivity within striped marlin (Kajikia audax), a broadly distributed and highly migratory pelagic species

Genomic methodologies offer unprecedented opportunities for statistically robust studies of species broadly distributed in environments conducive to high gene flow, providing valuable information for wildlife conservation and management. Here, we sequence restriction site-associated DNA to characterize genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a broadly distributed and highly migratory large pelagic fish, striped marlin (Kajikia audax). Assessment of over 4,000 SNPs resolved spatiotemporal patterns of genetic connectivity throughout the species range in the Pacific and, for the first time, Indian oceans. Individual-based cluster analyses identified six genetically distinct populations corresponding with the western Indian, eastern Indian, western South Pacific, and eastern central Pacific oceans, as well as two populations in the North Pacific Ocean (F ST = 0.0137-0.0819). F ST outlier analyses identified a subset of SNPs (n = 59) putatively under the influence of natural selection and capable of resolving populations separated by comparatively high degrees of genetic differentiation. Temporal collections available for some regions demonstrated the stability of allele frequencies over three to five generations of striped marlin. Relative migration rates reflected lower levels of genetic connectivity between Indian Ocean populations (m R ≤ 0.37) compared with most populations in the Pacific Ocean (m R ≥ 0.57) and highlight the importance of the western South Pacific in facilitating gene flow between ocean basins. Collectively, our results provide novel insights into rangewide population structure for striped marlin and highlight substantial inconsistencies between genetically distinct populations and stocks currently recognized for fisheries management. More broadly, we demonstrate that species capable of long-distance dispersal in environments lacking obvious physical barriers to movement can display substantial population subdivision that persists over multiple generations and that may be facilitated by both neutral and adaptive processes. Importantly, surveys of genome-wide markers enable inference of population-level relationships using sample sizes practical for large pelagic fishes of conservation concern.

Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean

Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long-term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end-of-the-century changes based on a high-greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long-term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two-step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end-of-the-century (2080-2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.