Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus)

Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk

Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.

A big data-model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host-pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data-model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

Perceived predation risk predicts glucocorticoid hormones, but not reproductive success in a colonial rodent

The Cort-Adaptation hypothesis suggests that elevated glucocorticoids (GCs) can facilitate an adaptive response to environmental and physiological challenges. Most previous studies have focused on avian species, which may limit their generalizability to mammals, where lactation is known to be a major physiological challenge. Furthermore, the effect of predation risk on GC levels has not been tested in the Cort-Adaptation hypothesis. We sought to test this hypothesis in a colonial prey species, black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We predicted that individuals located near fewer neighboring conspecifics would perceive an increased risk of predation and, in turn, have increased GCs (measured through hair cortisol concentration (HCC)) and reduced annual reproductive success compared to more centrally located individuals. We also investigated other putative influences on HCC: age, lactation status, body condition, and season of hair growth. Levels of vigilance behavior were higher for those with fewer neighboring conspecifics, suggesting variation in perceived risk of predation. Further, the risk of predation appeared to represent a chronic, detrimental stressor as evidenced by a significant increase in HCC for prairie dogs with fewer neighbors. Lactation status and season also influenced HCC. We found support for the Cort-Adaptation hypothesis where increased HCC during the reproductive season correlated with whether a female produced a litter, but not litter size, suggesting a minimum threshold of GCs is required for successful reproduction in this species. Our work illustrates that HCC may operate as an indicator of perceived predation risk, but care should be taken to consider the variety of factors influencing GC homeostasis, in particular lactation, when drawing conclusions using HCC as a marker of long-term stress.

Oral Sylvatic Plague Vaccine Does Not Adequately Protect Prairie Dogs (Cynomys spp.) for Endangered Black-Footed Ferret (Mustela nigripes) Conservation

The plague bacterium Yersinia pestis is lethal to endangered black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes, BFF) and the prairie dogs (Cynomys spp., PD) on which they depend for habitat and prey. We assessed the effectiveness of an oral sylvatic plague vaccine delivered in baits to black-tailed PD (Cynomys ludovicianus, BTPD) from 2013 to 2017 on the Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) in northcentral Montana. We permanently marked BTPD on four paired vaccine (N = 1,349 individuals) and placebo plots (N = 926; 7,027 total captures). We analyzed capture–recapture data under a Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival. Overall, survival averaged 0.05 lower on vaccine plots than on paired placebo plots. Immediately before noticeable die-offs and detecting plague on pairs CMR1 and CMR2, 89% of BTPD sampled on vaccine plots had consumed at least one bait and the immune systems of 40% were likely boosted by consuming baits over multiple years. Survival to the following year was 0.16 and 0.05 on the vaccine plots and 0.19 and 0.06 on the placebo plots for pairs CMR1 and CMR2, respectively. These rates were markedly lower than 0.63, the overall average estimate on those same plots during the previous 3 years. PD populations subjected to such large die-offs would not be expected to sustain a BFF population. An overriding limitation to achieving sufficient protection rests with vaccine delivery constraints. Late summer/fall bait distribution results in the highest bait uptake rates. However, the PD birth pulse each spring can double the size of populations in most years, greatly reducing the proportion of vaccinates in populations and diminishing potential herd immunity benefits. In addition to nonvaccinated juveniles and PD that do not consume bait, incomplete vaccine protection and time required for immunity to develop leaves a large majority of PD populations vulnerable to plague for 6–7 months or more each year.

Utah prairie dog population dynamics on the Awapa Plateau: precipitation, elevation, and plague

Utah prairie dogs (UPDs, Cynomys parvidens) are colonial, herbivorous rodents listed under the Endangered Species Act as threatened. Little is known about UPD population dynamics at higher elevations in the species’ range. From 2013 through 2016, we studied UPDs on five colonies at 2,645 to 2,873 m elevation on the Awapa Plateau, Utah, USA. Primary production increases with precipitation and precipitation increases with elevation on the plateau. We hypothesized that UPD body condition, reproduction, survival, and population growth all would vary directly with precipitation and elevation. Each year, we live-trapped UPDs from late-Jun through Aug, weighing each UPD, aging it as adult or pup, measuring its right hind foot, marking it for unique identification, and releasing it at point of capture. Fleas from live-trapped UPDs and opportunistically collected rodent carcasses, and rodent carcasses themselves, were tested for the agent of sylvatic plague (Yersinia pestis), a lethal invasive pathogen. Adult UPD body condition (mass:foot) increased with elevation. In addition, UPD reproduction (pups:adults) and population growth (λ) increased with precipitation. Annual survival declined from 0.49 in 2013–2014 to 0.24 in 2015–2016. We captured 421 UPDs in 2013 but only 149 in 2016. Sylvatic plague may have contributed to population declines. Notwithstanding, plague detection (yes/no by colony and year) had no statistical effect on population growth or annual survival, raising suspicion about the predictive value of binary plague detection variables. Generally speaking, efforts to conserve UPDs may benefit from the restoration and preservation of large colonies at mesic sites.

Comparison of Flea Sampling Methods and Yersinia pestis Detection on Prairie Dog Colonies

Scientists collect fleas (Siphonaptera) to survey for Yersinia pestis, the bacterial agent of plague. When studying fleas parasitizing prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.), two primary methods are used: (1) combing fleas from live-trapped prairie dogs and (2) swabbing fleas from burrows with cloth swabs attached to metal cables. Ideally, burrow swabbing, the cheaper and easier method, would explain flea burdens on prairie dogs and provide reliable information on plague prevalence. In a linear regression analysis of data from 1-month intervals (June-August 2010-2011) on 13 colonies of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus, BTPDs) in New Mexico, flea abundance on swabs explained 0-26% of variation in BTPD flea burdens. In an analysis of data (May-August 2016) from six colonies of BTPDs in Montana, flea abundance on swabs explained 2% of variation in BTPD flea burdens. In an analysis of data from a short-term interval (July 23-27, 2019) on four colonies of BTPDs in Montana, flea abundance on swabs explained 0.1% of variation in BTPD flea burdens. In an analysis of data from 1-week intervals (August-October 2000) on four colonies of white-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys leucurus, WTPD) in Utah, swabbing data explained 0.1% of variation in WTPD flea burdens. Pools of fleas from two WTPD colonies were tested for Y. pestis by mouse inoculation and isolation; 65% from WTPDs tested positive, whereas 4% from burrows tested positive. Data herein also show that results from burrow swabbing can misrepresent flea species composition and phenology on prairie dogs. Burrow swabbing is useful for some purposes, but limitations should be acknowledged, and accumulated data should be interpreted with caution.

Plague transforms positive effects of precipitation on prairie dogs to negative effects

Rodents characteristically benefit from increased precipitation, especially in typically dry habitats; "good years" of high precipitation improve their forage and water balance. However, Yersinia pestis (plague), a flea-borne pathogen of mammals that was introduced to western North America, has the greatest negative impact on at least some species of rodents during years of above-average precipitation. In the absence of plague mitigation, negative effects of plague in wet years might overwhelm the otherwise beneficial effects of increased moisture. In Montana and Utah, USA, where plague now occurs enzootically, we investigated the influence of precipitation on finite rates of annual population change (2000-2005) for 3 species of prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) in replicated plots treated with deltamethrin dust and in non-treated plots for paired comparisons. There was a significant interaction between precipitation and treatment. When we reduced plague vector fleas, prairie dog visual counts tended to increase with increasing precipitation. Simultaneously, there was a negative relationship between counts and precipitation on paired plots where plague was not managed, suggesting that plague transformed and reversed the otherwise beneficial effect of increased precipitation. Are the good years gone for prairie dogs? Even if the good years are not gone, they are perhaps relatively scarce compared to historic times prior to the invasion of plague. This scenario might apply to other ecosystems and may pose broad conservation challenges in western North America.

Reproductive phenology and seasonal mass dynamics of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) at their northern range limit

Intraspecific variation is common and can be substantial in species occupying large geographic ranges. For example, populations at a poleward range limit can be exposed to more severe and variable weather, resulting in more punctuated growing seasons and, consequently, large fluctuations in body mass and additional constraints on reproductive phenology. We monitored variation in these traits in a hibernating population of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus (Ord, 1815)) at their northern range limit across four growing seasons. Overall, individual body mass was highly dynamic both within and across growing seasons, and was correlated with sex, the presence of drought, and reproductive effort. This population experienced between-year variation in the timing of reproduction that was associated with weather variation. The influence of weather was particularly evident in 1 year during which a summer–autumn drought was followed by a severe and prolonged winter. This combination led to high overwinter mortality, substantially delayed emergences from hibernation, lower body masses at emergence from hibernation, and complete reproductive failure the following spring. Our results help to emphasize the influence of environmental conditions on levels of phenotypic variation at a species’ northern range limit, which may ultimately contribute to population viability and success.

Drought-mediated changes in black-tailed prairie dog colonies in the Northern Great Plains

Populations of many mammal species living in grassland ecosystems across North America have been reduced greatly over the past 200 years due to conversion of native prairie to human-related uses. Foremost among these species is the black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus), populations of which have declined an estimated 98% during that time. In addition to anthropogenic factors including plague, black-tailed prairie dog populations can vary in size in response to grazing by native ungulates, fire, and precipitation. Colonies in the Northern Great Plains have expanded and contracted during dry and wet periods, respectively. Drought reduces vegetation height; tall vegetation is known to limit colony expansion, possibly due to increased predation risk. We used mixed-effects models to analyze data sets of colony areas of black-tailed prairie dogs spanning 16–22 years and 983 total colony counts, from 142 unique colonies at Badlands National Park and Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota, United States, and Scotts Bluff National Monument, Nebraska, United States, to relate areal dynamics of colonies over time to total annual precipitation, drought stress, and plague. We also analyzed the relationship between active-burrow densities and precipitation and drought stress using 7 years of data from 271 colony counts at Badlands National Park. Black-tailed prairie dog colonies expanded in response to drought conditions in all three national parks, with colonies in Wind Cave National Park exhibiting a time-delayed response. In addition, colony area was negatively related to total accumulated precipitation for the preceding 12 months for Scotts Bluff National Monument. Active-burrow density at Badlands National Park decreased in response to drought stress with a time lag of 24–36 months. Plague first was reported at Badlands National Park in 2008 and colony areas decreased dramatically and rapidly during plague epizootic events. Our results support observations that black-tailed prairie dog colonies in the Northern Great Plains expand and contract in response to drought stress and wet weather. Furthermore, our findings provide new insights into the role of climate on a keystone species of conservation importance and demonstrate the value of collecting long-term ecological data.

Spatiotemporal dynamics in vital rates of Humboldt’s flying squirrels and Townsend’s chipmunks in a late-successional forest

Knowledge of the spatiotemporal variability of abundance and vital rates is essential to the conservation of wildlife populations. In Pacific Northwest forests, previous small mammal research has focused on estimating abundance; few studies have focused on vital rates. We used robust design temporal symmetry models and live-trapping data collected 2011–2016 at nine sites to estimate apparent annual survival, population growth rate, and recruitment of Humboldt’s flying squirrels (Glaucomys oregonensis) and Townsend’s chipmunks (Neotamias townsendii) in a late-successional forest of the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, United States. We also estimated the proportional contribution of apparent annual survival and recruitment to population growth rate. Covariates previously associated with abundance were also associated with vital rates for Townsend’s chipmunks, but less so for Humboldt’s flying squirrels. Apparent annual survival was nearly constant (range = 0.47 to 0.51) among years and sites for Humboldt’s flying squirrels but was consistently lower and more variable among years for Townsend’s chipmunks (range = 0.13 to 0.31). Recruitment was variable among years for both species. Apparent annual survival generally contributed more than recruitment to the population growth rate of Humboldt’s flying squirrels. For Townsend’s chipmunks, recruitment consistently contributed more than apparent annual survival to population growth rate. These findings suggest that life history strategies differed for these co-occurring species. This study demonstrates substantial temporal variation in vital rates and some differences in abundance and vital rate habitat associations, suggesting that habitat suitability inferences based on short time series or variation in abundance could be misleading.

FLEA PARASITISM AND HOST SURVIVAL IN A PLAGUE-RELEVANT SYSTEM: THEORETICAL AND CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS

Plague is a bacterial zoonosis of mammalian hosts and flea vectors. The disease is capable of ravaging rodent populations and transforming ecosystems. Because plague mortality is likely to be predicted by flea parasitism, it is critical to understand vector dynamics. It has been hypothesized that paltry precipitation and reduced vegetative production predispose herbivorous rodents to malnourishment and flea parasitism, and flea parasitism varies directly with plague mortality. We evaluated these hypotheses on five colonies of Utah prairie dogs (UPDs; Cynomys parvidens), on the Awapa Plateau, Utah, US, in 2013-16. Ten flea species were identified among 3,257 fleas from UPDs. These 10 flea species parasitize prairie dogs, mice, rats, voles, ground squirrels, chipmunks, and marmots, all known hosts of plague. The abundance of fleas on individual UPDs (1,198 observations) varied inversely with UPD body condition; fleas were most abundant on lightweight, malnourished UPDs. Flea abundance on UPDs was highest in dry years that were preceded by wet years. Increased precipitation and soil moisture in the prior year might generate humid microclimates in UPD burrows (that could facilitate flea survival and reproduction) and paltry precipitation in the current year could predispose UPDs to malnourishment and flea parasitism. Annual re-encounter rates for UPDs (1,072 observations) were reduced in wetter years preceded by drier years; reduced precipitation and vegetative production might kill UPDs, and increased flea densities in drier years could provide conditions for plague transmission (and UPD mortality) when moisture returns. Re-encounter rates were reduced for UPDs carrying at least one flea compared to UPDs with no detected fleas. These results support the hypothesis that reduced precipitation in the current year predisposes UPDs to flea parasitism. Our results also suggest a link between flea parasitism and UPD mortality. Given documented connections between flea parasitism and plague transmission, our results point toward an effect of flea parasitism on plague-related deaths for individual UPDs, a phenomenon rarely investigated in nature.

Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China

Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2060) habitat suitability by combining bioclimatic and environmental variables, and identified potential climate refugia for Tibetan brown bears in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Next, we selected Circuit model to simulate potential migration paths based on current and future climatically suitable habitat. Results indicate a total area of potential suitable habitat under the current climate scenario of approximately 31,649.46 km2, of which 28,778.29 km2 would be unsuitable by the 2050s. Potentially suitable habitat under the future climate scenario was projected to cover an area of 23,738.6 km2. Climate refugia occupied 2,871.17 km2, primarily in the midwestern and northeastern regions of Yangtze River Zone, as well as the northern region of Yellow River Zone. The altitude of climate refugia ranged from 4,307 to 5,524 m, with 52.93% lying at altitudes between 4,300 and 4,600 m. Refugia were mainly distributed on bare rock, alpine steppe, and alpine meadow. Corridors linking areas of potentially suitable brown bear habitat and a substantial portion of paths with low-resistance value were distributed in climate refugia. We recommend various actions to ameliorate the impact of climate change on brown bears, such as protecting climatically suitable habitat, establishing habitat corridors, restructuring conservation areas, and strengthening monitoring efforts.