Climate warming and land-use changes drive broad-scale floristic changes in Southern Sweden

Bias in Discontinuous Elevational Transects for Tracking Species Range Shifts

Climate change is compelling species to seek refuge at higher elevations and latitudes. While researchers commonly study these migrations using discontinuous elevational transects, this methodology may introduce significant biases into our understanding of species movement. These potential biases could lead to flawed biodiversity conservation policies if left unexamined. To address this concern, we utilized species distribution data from a novel continuous elevational transect to evaluate the accuracy of discontinuous transect methods. Our analysis focused on how quadrat spacing and survey time intervals affect bias in estimating species range shifts. The results were striking: the widely used settings for discontinuous transects failed to detect 7.2% of species, inaccurately estimated shift distances for 78% of species, and produced an overall error rate of 86%. Wider quadrat spacing increased these error rates, while longer survey intervals generally reduced them. Moreover, discontinuous transects consistently underestimated species shift distances, with this underestimation becoming more pronounced over longer survey periods. Our pioneering assessment of bias in discontinuous elevational transects demonstrates that a 50 m quadrat spacing combined with a 60-year survey interval optimizes monitoring species range shifts for conservation planning. This baseline protocol could be further strengthened through supplementary, frequent surveys targeting high-elevation species-a strategic approach that maximizes accuracy while maintaining cost-effectiveness.

Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe

Serious concerns exist about potentially reinforcing negative effects of climate change and land conversion on biodiversity. Here, we investigate the tandem and interacting roles of climate warming and land-use change as predictors of shifts in the regional distributions of 1701 plant species in Sweden over 60 years. We show that species associated with warmer climates have increased, while grassland specialists have declined. Our results also support the hypothesis that climate warming and vegetation densification through grazing abandonment have synergistic effects on species distribution change. Local extinctions were related to high levels of warming but were reduced by grassland retention. In contrast, colonisations occurred more often in areas experiencing high levels of both climate and land-use change. Strong temperature increases were experienced by species across their ranges, indicating time lags in expected warming-related local extinctions. Our results highlight that the conservation of threatened species relies on both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the retention and restoration of valuable habitat.

Temporal changes in the Swiss flora: implications for flower-visiting insects

Background

Local floristic diversity has massively decreased during the twentieth century in Central Europe even though in the 1990s diversity began increasing again in several regions. However, little is known whether this increase is equally distributed among plant groups with different reproductive traits.

Methods

Our study is based on data of the Swiss Biodiversity Monitoring Program. In this program, plant species occurrence is recorded since 2001 in 450 regularly distributed 1 km2 study sites. For all 1774 plant species registered in the study, we researched data on flower/pseudanthium type and colour, reproductive system, and groups of flower visitors. We then tested whether temporal changes in species frequency were equally distributed among species with different trait states.

Results

Species richness and functional richness significantly increased in the study sites while functional evenness decreased. The frequency of wind-pollinated species increased more strongly than that of insect-pollinated species. Further, the frequency of species with simple, open insect-pollinated flowers and pseudanthia visited by generalist groups of insects increased slightly more strongly than the frequency of species with complex flowers visited by more specialized groups of flower visitors. Additionally, the frequency of self-compatible species increased significantly more than that of self-incompatible species. Thus, the overall increase in local plant species richness in Switzerland is mostly driven by wind- and generalist insect-pollinated, self-compatible species. In contrast, species with complex flowers, which are essential for specialized groups of flower visitors and species with self-incompatible reproductive systems profited less.

Conclusions

Our study thus emphasizes the need to consider functional traits in the planning and monitoring of conservation activities, and calls for a special focus on plant species with specialized reproductive traits.

Land use and climate change impacts on distribution of plant species of conservation value in Eastern Ghats, India: a simulation study

Effective monitoring of the current status of species distributions and predicting future distributions are very important for conservation practices at the ecosystem and species levels. The human population, land use, and climate are important factors that influence the distributions of species. Even though future simulations have many uncertainties, such studies can provide a means of obtaining species distributions, range shifts, and food production and help mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, we simulate the population, land use/land cover and species distributions in the Eastern Ghats, India. A MaxEnt species distribution model was used to simulate the potential habitats of a group of endemic (28 species found in this region) and rare, endangered, and threatened (RET) (22 species found in this region) plant species on the basis of IPCC AR5 scenarios developed for 2050 and 2070. Simulations of populations in 2050 indicate that they will increase at a rate of 1.12% relative to the base year, 2011. These increases in population create a demand for more land for settlement and food productions. Land use land cover (LULC) simulations show an increase in built-up land from 3665.00 km² in 2015 to 3989.56 km² by 2050. There is a minor increase of 0.04% in the area under agriculture in 2050 compared with 2015. On the other hand, the habitat simulations show that the combined effects of climate and land use change have a greater influence on the decline of potential distributions of species. Climate change and the prevailing rate of LULC change will reduce the extents of the habitats of endemic and RET species (~ 60% and ~ 40%, respectively). The Eastern Ghats have become extensively fragmented due to human activities and have become a hotspot of endemic and RET species loss. Climate and LULC change will enhance the species loss and ecosystem services.

Half a century of multiple anthropogenic stressors has altered northern forest understory plant communities

Boreal forests form the largest and least disturbed forest biome in the northern hemisphere. However, anthropogenic pressure from intensified forest management, eutrophication, and climate change may alter the ecosystem functions of understory vegetation and services boreal forests provide. Swedish forests span long gradients of climate, nitrogen deposition, and management intensity. This makes them ideal to study how the species composition and functions of other, more pristine, boreal forests might change under increased anthropogenic pressure. Moreover, the National Forest Inventory (NFI) has collected systematic data on Swedish forest vegetation since the mid-20th century. We use this data to quantify changes in vegetation types between two periods, 1953-1962 and 2003-2012. The results show changes in forest understory vegetation since the 1950s at scales not previously documented in the boreal biome. The spatial extent of most vegetation types changed significantly. Shade-adapted and nutrient-demanding species (those with high specific leaf area) have become more common at the expense of light-demanding and nutrient-conservative (low specific leaf area) species. The cover of ericaceous dwarf shrubs decreased dramatically. These effects were strongest where anthropogenic impacts were greatest, suggesting links to drivers such as nitrogen deposition and land-use change. These changes may impact ecosystem functions and services via effects on higher trophic levels and faster plant litter decomposition in the expanding vegetation types. This, in turn, may influence nutrient dynamics, and consequently ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration.

The Dangers of Being a Small, Oligotrophic and Light Demanding Freshwater Plant across a Spatial and Historical Eutrophication Gradient in Southern Scandinavia

European freshwater habitats have experienced a severe loss of plant diversity, regionally and locally, over the last century or more. One important and well-established driver of change is eutrophication, which has increased with rising population density and agricultural intensification. However, reduced disturbance of lake margins may have played an additional key role. The geographical variation in water chemistry, which has set the scene for - and interacted with - anthropogenic impact, is much less well understood. We took advantage of some recently completed regional plant distribution surveys, relying on hundreds of skilled citizen scientists, and analyzed the hydrophyte richness to environment relations in five contiguous South-Scandinavian regions. For three of the regions, we also assessed changes to the freshwater flora over the latest 50-80 years. We found a considerable variation in background total phosphorus concentrations and alkalinity, both within and between regions. The prevalence of functional groups differed between regions in accordance with the environmental conditions and the species' tolerance to turbid waters. Similarly, the historical changes within regions followed the same trend in correspondence to the altered environmental conditions over time. Small submerged species decreased relative to tall submerged and floating-leaved species along the regional and historical eutrophication gradients. These changes were accompanied by systematically greater relative abundance of species of higher phosphorus prevalence. We conclude that species traits in close correspondence with anthropogenic impacts are the main determinants of local, regional and historical changes of species distribution and occupancy, while pure biogeography plays a minor role. Conservation measures, such as re-oligotrophication and re-established disturbance regimes through grazing and water level fluctuations, may help reduce the tall reed vegetation, restore the former richness of the freshwater flora and safeguard red-listed species, although extended time delays are anticipated in nutrient-rich regions, in which species only survive at minute abundance in isolated refugia.