Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions

Human activities have placed significant pressure on the terrestrial biosphere, leading to ecosystem degradation and carbon losses. However, the full impact of these activities on terrestrial biomass carbon remains unexplored. In this study, we examined changes in global human footprint (HFP) and human-induced aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC) losses from 2000 to 2018. Our findings show an increasing trend in HFP globally, resulting in the conversion of wilderness areas to highly modified regions. These changes have altered global biomes' habitats, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. We also found accelerated AGBC loss driven by HFP expansion, with a total loss of 19.99 ± 0.196 PgC from 2000 to 2018, especially in tropical regions. Additionally, AGBC is more vulnerable in the Global South than in the Global North. Human activities threaten natural habitats, resulting in increasing AGBC loss even in strictly protected areas. Therefore, scientifically guided planning of future human activities is crucial to protect half of Earth through mitigation and adaptation under future risks of climate change and global urbanization.

Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion

The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3.

Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection

Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature's contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.

Beyond pastures, look at plastic: Using Sentinel-2 imagery to map silage bags to improve understanding of cattle intensity

Cattle ranching has increased globally in the last decades, and although pasture expansion is well documented across different regions, there is little understanding of the intensity at which cattle operate in these areas. With freely available Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, we mapped for the first time polyethylene silage bags used for forage conservation in a year with the Random Forest algorithm, and proposed them as a spatial indicator of cattle intensity. For this, we combined monthly silage area with land cover and climatic variables in a regression framework to understand cattle intensity metrics at regional and farm scales throughout 20 million hectares in the Dry Chaco. In addition, we explored the impact of using maize silage supplementation on productive and environmental metrics at the farm scale in a precipitation gradient. We validated our models using a spatially explicit database of cattle distribution. Our results highlight that silage bags are accurate mappable objects with Sentinel-2, which can contribute to the understanding of cattle density, and heifer and steer density in pasture contexts at farm and regional scales. Finally, our whole-farm simulations support the idea that incorporating silage supplementation in cattle ranching regional analyses conducts to significant differences on environmental or productive estimations, which should be considered. The amount of stored forage that is used in supplementation has strong implications for the performance of cattle ranching, but remains difficult to quantify at the regional level with remote sensing. Silage bag mapping is thus an opportunity to improve the overall understanding of livestock intensification and its productive and environmental impacts, particularly in highly seasonal rangelands. Following this metric could be a valuable indicator of the cattle ranching performance in terms of it resilience, production increase and impacts over natural ecosystems (related to Sustainable Development Goal 2-zero hunger and also in the 15-life on land).

The infectious disease trap of animal agriculture

Infectious diseases originating from animals (zoonotic diseases) have emerged following deforestation from agriculture. Agriculture can reduce its land use through intensification, i.e., improving resource use efficiency. However, intensive management often confines animals and their wastes, which also fosters disease emergence. Therefore, rising demand for animal-sourced foods creates a "trap" of zoonotic disease risks: extensive land use on one hand or intensive animal management on the other. Not all intensification poses disease risks; some methods avoid confinement and improve animal health. However, these "win-win" improvements alone cannot satisfy rising meat demand, particularly for chicken and pork. Intensive poultry and pig production entails greater antibiotic use, confinement, and animal populations than beef production. Shifting from beef to chicken consumption mitigates climate emissions, but this common strategy neglects zoonotic disease risks. Preventing zoonotic diseases requires international coordination to reduce the high demand for animal-sourced foods, improve forest conservation governance, and selectively intensify the lowest-producing ruminant animal systems without confinement.

A global record of annual terrestrial Human Footprint dataset from 2000 to 2018

Human Footprint, the pressure imposed on the eco-environment by changing ecological processes and natural landscapes, is raising worldwide concerns on biodiversity and ecological conservation. Due to the lack of spatiotemporally consistent datasets of Human Footprint over a long temporal span, many relevant studies on this topic have been limited. Here, we mapped the annual dynamics of the global Human Footprint from 2000 to 2018 using eight variables that reflect different aspects of human pressures. The accuracy assessment revealed a good agreement between our mapped results and the previously developed datasets in different years. We found more than two million km² of wilderness (i.e., regions with Human Footprint values below one) were lost over the past two decades. The biome dominated by mangroves experienced the most significant loss (i.e., above 5%) of wilderness, likely attributed to intensified human activities in coastal areas. The derived annual and spatiotemporally consistent global Human Footprint can be a fundamental dataset for many relevant studies about human activities and natural resources.

Measurement(s)	human footprint
Technology Type(s)	remote sensing
Factor Type(s)	Built Environment • Population Density • Nighttime lights • Croplands • Pastures • Roads • Railways • Navigable waterways

The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, "detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats." In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.

Synthesis of Zinc Oxide Eudragit FS30D Nanohybrids: Structure, Characterization, and Their Application as an Intestinal Drug Delivery System

The present study was designed to develop multifunctional zinc oxide-encapsulated Eudragit FS30D (ZnO/EFS) nanohybrid structures as a biodegradable drug delivery system and as a promising successful carrier for targeting sites. The solvent evaporation method was used to fabricate the ZnO/EFS nanohybrids and the size, shape, stability, and antioxidant activity were characterized using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering (DLS), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), and an antioxidant (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH)). Zinc oxide-encapsulated Eudragit FS30D (ZnO/EFS) nanohybrid structures consisted of irregularly shaped, 297.65 nm-sized ZnO/EFS microcapsule, enduring thermal stability from 251.17 to 385.67 °C. Nano-ZnO was encapsulated in EFS through the formation of hydrogen bonds, and the average encapsulation efficiency for nano-ZnO was determined to be 96.12%. In vitro intestinal-targeted drug release assay provided 91.86% with free nano-ZnO, only 9.5% in acidified ZnO/EFS nanohybrid structure but the rate ZnO/EFS nanohybrids reached 93.11% in succus entericus resultantly modified nano-ZnO was proven proficient intestinal-specific delivery system. The stability of the ZnO/EFS nanohybrid structures was confirmed using ζ-potential and antioxidant activity analysis. Hence, the EFS nanoencapsulation strategy of ZnO provided a stable, nontoxic, and pharmacokinetically active intestine-specific system that can become the best choice for an effective oral feed additive in future.

Intensification of dairy production can increase the GHG mitigation potential of the land use sector in East Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) could face food shortages in the future because of its growing population. Agricultural expansion causes forest degradation in SSA through livestock grazing, reducing forest carbon (C) sinks and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, intensification should produce more food while reducing pressure on forests. This study assessed the potential for the dairy sector in Kenya to contribute to low-emissions development by exploring three feeding scenarios. The analyses used empirical spatially explicit data, and a simulation model to quantify milk production, agricultural emissions and forest C loss due to grazing. The scenarios explored improvements in forage quality (Fo), feed conservation (Fe) and concentrate supplementation (Co): FoCo fed high-quality Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum), FeCo supplemented maize silage and FoFeCo a combination of Napier, silage and concentrates. Land shortages and forest C loss due to grazing were quantified with land requirements and feed availability around forests. All scenarios increased milk yields by 44%-51%, FoCo reduced GHG emission intensity from 2.4 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.1 kg CO₂ eq per kg milk, FeCo reduced it to 2.2 ± 0.1, whereas FoFeCo increased it to 2.7 ± 0.2 kg CO₂ eq per kg milk because of land use change emissions. Closing the yield gap of maize by increasing N fertilizer use reduced emission intensities by 17% due to reduced emissions from conversion of grazing land. FoCo was the only scenario that mitigated agricultural and forest emissions by reducing emission intensity by 33% and overall emissions by 2.5% showing that intensification of dairy in a low-income country can increase milk yields without increasing emissions. There are, however, risks of C leakage if agricultural and forest policies are not aligned leading to loss of forest to produce concentrates. This approach will aid the assessment of the climate-smartness of livestock production practices at the national level in East Africa.

Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systems where naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.

Effects of Bark Stripping on Timber Production and Structure of Norway Spruce Forests in Relation to Climatic Factors

The aim of this study was to assess the effects of bark stripping caused by sika deer (Cervus nippon [Temminck]) on the production and structure of young Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest stands (41–43 years). Production parameters, structure, diversity, and the dynamics of radial growth in selected forest stands in relation to climatic conditions were evaluated. Similar to other production parameters, stand volumes showed lower values on research plots heavily damaged by bark stripping (290 m3 ha−1) compared to stands with lower tree stem damages (441 m3 ha−1). A significant decrease in stem volume was recorded for trees with stem circumference damage higher than 1/3 of the stem circumference. In most cases, the trees were damaged between the ages of 10–23 years, specifically the radial growth was significantly lowered in this period. The diameter increment of damaged trees dropped to 64% of the healthy counterparts in this period. Bark stripping damages reached up to 93% of the stem circumference with a mean damage of 31%. Stem rot was found on 62% of damaged trees. In our study area, with respect to the terms of climatic conditions, precipitation had a higher effect on radial growth of the Norway spruce compared to temperature. The main limiting climatic factor of tree growth was the lack of precipitation within a growing season, particularly in June of the current year.