Intensification of dairy production can increase the GHG mitigation potential of the land use sector in East Africa

Livestock greenhouse gas emission and mitigation potential in China

Livestock is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in China. Understanding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends and reduction strategies in livestock is crucial for promoting low-carbon transformation of the livestock sector (LS) and achieving the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization". First, based on the life cycle assessment and IPCC coefficient methods, we calculated the GHGE of the LS in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2020 and identified the temporal and spatial evolution of GHG emission intensity. The LMDI method was then used to analyze the influence of efficiency, structure, economy, and population size on GHGE. Finally, the STIRPAT model was used to simulate the future evolution trend of the LS emissions under the SSPs scenario. The results revealed that the GHGE in the life cycle of livestock production decreased from 535.47 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2000 to 532.18 Mt CO2e in 2020, and the main source was CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation of livestock. Economic and efficiency factors markedly influenced the changes in GHGE from the LS in China. Further, economic factors contributed >40% to the increase in GHGE in most provinces. Under the SSP1, SSP2, and SSP4 scenarios, livestock production can achieve the carbon peak target in 2030. Under the baseline scenario (SSP2), the GHGE of China's LS in 2030 and 2060 are expected to be 491.48 Mt CO2e and 352.11 Mt CO2e, respectively. The focus of mitigation measures for livestock production in the future is to optimize the production structure of the LS, promote the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure of livestock feeding, and establish an efficient and intensive management model. In addition, we focus on emission reduction in key areas, such as Northeast and Northwest China, while optimizing diet and reducing food waste from the consumer side.

Low-opportunity-cost feed can reduce land-use-related environmental impacts by about one-third in China

Feeding animals more low-opportunity-cost feed products (LCFs), such as food waste and by-products, may decrease food-feed competition for cropland. Using a feed allocation optimization model that considers the availability of feed sources and animal requirements for protein and energy, we explored the perspectives of feeding more LCFs to animals in China. We found that about one-third of the animal feed consisted of human-edible products, while only 23% of the available LCFs were used as feed during 2009-2013. An increased utilization of LCFs (45-90 Mt) could potentially save 25-32% of feed-producing cropland area without impairing livestock productivity. Parallelly, about one-third of feed-related irrigation water, synthetic fertilizer and greenhouse gas emissions would be saved. Re-allocating the saved cropland could sustain the food energy demand of 30-185 million people. Achieving the potentials of increased LCF use requires improved technology and coordination among stakeholders.

How necessary and feasible are reductions of methane emissions from livestock to support stringent temperature goals?

Agriculture is the largest single source of global anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions, with ruminants the dominant contributor. Livestock CH4 emissions are projected to grow another 30% by 2050 under current policies, yet few countries have set targets or are implementing policies to reduce emissions in absolute terms. The reason for this limited ambition may be linked not only to the underpinning role of livestock for nutrition and livelihoods in many countries but also diverging perspectives on the importance of mitigating these emissions, given the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. Here, we show that in mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C, which include cost-effective reductions from all emission sources, the contribution of future livestock CH4 emissions to global warming in 2050 is about one-third of that from future net carbon dioxide emissions. Future livestock CH4 emissions, therefore, significantly constrain the remaining carbon budget and the ability to meet stringent temperature limits. We review options to address livestock CH4 emissions through more efficient production, technological advances and demand-side changes, and their interactions with land-based carbon sequestration. We conclude that bringing livestock into mainstream mitigation policies, while recognizing their unique social, cultural and economic roles, would make an important contribution towards reaching the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and is vital for a limit of 1.5°C. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Feeding efficiency gains can increase the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the Tanzanian dairy sector

We use an attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) and simulation modelling to assess the effect of improved feeding practices and increased yields of feed crops on milk productivity and GHG emissions from the dairy sector of Tanzania's southern highlands region. We calculated direct non-CO₂ emissions from dairy production and the CO₂ emissions resulting from the demand for croplands and grasslands using a land footprint indicator. Baseline GHG emissions intensities ranged between 19.8 and 27.8 and 5.8-5.9 kg CO₂eq kg^-1 fat and protein corrected milk for the Traditional (local cattle) and Modern (improved cattle) sectors. Land use change contributed 45.8-65.8% of the total carbon footprint of dairy. Better feeding increased milk yields by up to 60.1% and reduced emissions intensities by up to 52.4 and 38.0% for the Traditional and Modern sectors, respectively. Avoided land use change was the predominant cause of reductions in GHG emissions under all the scenarios. Reducing yield gaps of concentrate feed crops lowered emissions further by 11.4-34.9% despite increasing N₂O and CO₂ emissions from soils management and input use. This study demonstrates that feed intensification has potential to increase LUC emissions from dairy production, but that fertilizer-dependent yield gains can offset this increase in emissions through avoided emissions from land use change.

Progress and Challenges in Ex Situ Conservation of Forage Germplasm: Grasses, Herbaceous Legumes and Fodder Trees

Forages provide an important livestock feed resource globally, particularly for millions of smallholder farmers, and have important roles in natural resource management and carbon sequestration, reducing soil erosion and mitigating the effects of climate change. Forage germplasm remains the basis for the selection and development of new, higher-yielding and better adaptedgenotypes to meet the increasing demand for livestock feed. Rapid rates of genetic erosion of forage diversity due to land-use change from natural pastures and rangelands to crop production to meet the food security requirements of a growing global population, together with pressures from a changing climate, highlight the necessity for ex situ seed conservation of forage genetic resources to provide germplasm for use by future generations. Whilst many forage species have orthodox seeds, the diverse range of genera and species which provide forage is a challenge in terms of the wide scope of information and understanding on conservation methods that genebank managers require—particularly for tropical forages, many of which are comparatively under-researched. We review the challenges to the conservation of tropical forage species by seed in ex situ genebanks and provide information on optimum methods for their management.