Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

Impact of climate change on the reproductive diapause and voltinism of the carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis

The impacts of climate change on the development of insects are of great concern due to potential alterations in population dynamics and pest pressure. The carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis, is a major agricultural pest, and its development is influenced by temperature and photoperiod. In this study, our aim was to investigate the impact of temperature increases on the voltinism and reproductive diapause of the carrot weevil under field conditions and bioclimatic models. Field observations were conducted over two growing seasons using structures that allowed for temperature increases. The developmental stages of the carrot weevil, including female reproductive status, oviposition and larval stage, were monitored weekly to measure the proportion of individuals undergoing an additional generation. Concurrently, bioclimatic models were used to simulate the probability of a second generation under current (1981-2010) and future (2041-2070) climates, considering a lower and a higher change in emission scenarios. Results showed that rising temperatures led to an increase in the proportion of carrot weevils undergoing inhibition of the reproductive diapause and a higher number of eggs laid in the field. The models indicated a substantial rise in the probability of a second generation developing, from 24% to 37% to 62%-99% under current and future climates, respectively. These findings demonstrate the potential for significant alterations in carrot weevil population dynamics, resulting in increased pest pressure on crops. Further research is needed to fully understand the implications of these findings and to develop effective adaptation measures to mitigate the negative impacts of global warming on insect populations and agriculture.

Seasonality of forest insects: why diapause matters

Insects have major impacts on forest ecosystems, from herbivory and soil-nutrient cycling to killing trees at a large scale. Forest insects from temperate, tropical, and subtropical regions have evolved strategies to respond to seasonality; for example, by entering diapause, to mitigate adversity and to synchronize lifecycles with favorable periods. Here, we show that distinct functional groups of forest insects; that is, canopy dwellers, trunk-associated species, and soil/litter-inhabiting insects, express a variety of diapause strategies, but do not show systematic differences in diapause strategy depending on functional group. Due to the overall similarities in diapause strategies, we can better estimate the impacts of anthropogenic change on forest insect populations and, consequently, on key ecosystems.

Upward and Poleward (but Not Phenological) Shifts in a Forest Tenebrionid Beetle in Response to Global Change in a Mediterranean Area

There is an increasing volume of literature on the impact of climate change on insects. However, there is an urgent need for more empirical research on underrepresented groups in key areas, including species for which the effects of climatic change may seem less evident. The present paper illustrates the results of a study on a common forest tenebrionid beetle, Accanthopus velikensis (Piller and Mitterpacher, 1783), at a regional scale within the Mediterranean basin. Using a large set of records from Latium (central Italy), changes in the median values of elevation, latitude, longitude, and phenology between two periods (1900-1980 vs. 1981-2022) were tested. Records of A. velikensis in the period 1981-2022 showed median values of elevation and latitude higher than those recorded in the first period. Thus, in response to rising temperatures, the species became more frequent at higher elevation and in northern places. By contrast, A. velikensis does not seem to have changed its activity pattern in response to increased temperatures, but this might be an artifact due to the inclusion of likely overwintering individuals. The results obtained for A. velikensis indicate that even thermally euryoecious species can show changes in their elevational and latitudinal distribution, and that poleward shifts can be apparent even within a small latitudinal gradient.

Disentangling the drivers of decadal body size decline in an insect population

While climate warming is widely predicted to reduce body size of ectotherms, evidence for this trend is mixed. Body size depends not only on temperature but also on other factors, such as food quality and intraspecific competition. Because temperature trends or other long-term environmental factors may affect population size and food sources, attributing trends in average body size to temperature requires the separation of potentially confounding effects. We evaluated trends in the body size of the midge Tanytarsus gracilentus and potential drivers (water temperature, population size, and food quality) between 1977 and 2015 at Lake Mývatn, Iceland. Although temperatures increased at Mývatn over this period, there was only a slight (non-significant) decrease in midge adult body size, contrary to theoretical expectations. Using a state-space model including multiple predictors, body size was negatively associated with both water temperature and midge population abundance, and it was positively associated with 13 C enrichment of midges (an indicator of favorable food conditions). The magnitude of these effects were similar, such that simultaneous changes in temperature, abundance, and carbon stable isotopic signature could counteract each other in the long-term body size trend. Our results illustrate how multiple factors, all of which could be influenced by global change, interact to affect average ectotherm body size.

Evolution of butterfly seasonal plasticity driven by climate change varies across life stages

Photoperiod is a common cue for seasonal plasticity and phenology, but climate change can create cue-environment mismatches for organisms that rely on it. Evolution could potentially correct these mismatches, but phenology often depends on multiple plastic decisions made during different life stages and seasons that may evolve separately. For example, Pararge aegeria (Speckled wood butterfly) has photoperiod-cued seasonal life history plasticity in two different life stages: larval development time and pupal diapause. We tested for climate change-associated evolution of this plasticity by replicating common garden experiments conducted on two Swedish populations 30 years ago. We found evidence for evolutionary change in the contemporary larval reaction norm-although these changes differed between populations-but no evidence for evolution of the pupal reaction norm. This variation in evolution across life stages demonstrates the need to consider how climate change affects the whole life cycle to understand its impacts on phenology.

Potential for urban warming to postpone overwintering dormancy of temperate mosquitoes

Cities are generally hotter than surrounding rural areas due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. These increases in temperature advance plant and animal phenology, development, and reproduction in the spring. However, research determining how increased temperatures affect the seasonal physiology of animals in the fall has been limited. The Northern house mosquito, Culex pipiens, is abundant in cities and transmits several pathogens including West Nile virus. Females of this species enter a state of developmental arrest, or reproductive diapause, in response to short days and low temperatures during autumn. Diapausing females halt reproduction and blood-feeding, and instead accumulate fat and seek sheltered overwintering sites. We found that exposure to increased temperatures in the lab that mimic the UHI effect induced ovarian development and blood-feeding, and that females exposed to these temperatures were as fecund as non-diapausing mosquitoes. We also found that females exposed to higher temperatures had lower survival rates in winter-like conditions, despite having accumulated equivalent lipid reserves relative to their diapausing congeners. These data suggest that urban warming may inhibit diapause initiation in the autumn, thereby extending the active biting season of temperate mosquitoes.

Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology

Studies of long-term trends in phenology often rely on climatic averages or accumulated heat, overlooking climate variability. Here we test the hypothesis that unusual weather conditions are critical in driving adult insect phenology. First, we generate phenological estimates for Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) across the Eastern USA, and over a 70 year period, using natural history collections data. Next, we assemble a set of predictors, including the number of unusually warm and cold days prior to, and during, the adult flight period. We then use phylogenetically informed linear mixed effects models to evaluate effects of unusual weather events, climate context, species traits, and their interactions on flight onset, offset and duration. We find increasing numbers of both warm and cold days were strong effects, dramatically increasing flight duration. This strong effect on duration is likely driven by differential onset and termination dynamics. For flight onset, impact of unusual climate conditions is dependent on climatic context, but for flight cessation, more unusually cold days always lead to later termination particularly for multivoltine species. These results show that understanding phenological responses under global change must account for unusual weather events, especially given they are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest insect populations under climate change

Effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, often involving drivers that are opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive. Overall, climate change is driving an increase in outbreaks and range shifts. Links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer; however, the underlying mechanisms remain less clear. Climate alters forest insect population dynamics directly through life history, physiology, and voltinism, and indirectly through effects on host trees and natural enemies. Climatic effects on bark beetles, wood-boring insects, and sap-suckers are often indirect, through effects on host-tree susceptibility, whereas climatic effects on defoliators are comparatively more direct. We recommend process-based approaches to global distribution mapping and population models to identify the underlying mechanisms and enable effective management of forest insects.

Ecological traits explain long-term phenological trends in solitary bees

Across taxa, the timing of life-history events (phenology) is changing in response to warming temperatures. However, little is known about drivers of variation in phenological trends among species. We analysed 168 years of museum specimen and sighting data to evaluate the patterns of phenological change in 70 species of solitary bees that varied in three ecological traits: diet breadth (generalist or specialist), seasonality (spring, summer or fall) and nesting location (above-ground or below-ground). We estimated changes in onset, median, end and duration of each bee species' annual activity (flight duration) using quantile regression. To determine whether ecological traits could explain phenological trends, we compared average trends across species groups that differed in a single trait. We expected that specialist bees would be constrained by their host plants' phenology and would show weaker phenological change than generalist species. We expected phenological advances in spring and delays in summer and fall. Lastly, we expected stronger shifts in above-ground versus below-ground nesters. Across all species, solitary bees have advanced their phenology by 0.43 days/decade. Since 1970, this advancement has increased fourfold to 1.62 days/decade. Solitary bees have also lengthened their flight period by 0.44 days/decade. Seasonality and nesting location explained variation in trends among species. Spring- and summer-active bees tended to advance their phenology, whereas fall-active bees tended to delay. Above-ground nesting species experienced stronger advances than below-ground nesting bees in spring; however, the opposite was true in summer. Diet breadth was not associated with patterns of phenological change. Our study has two key implications. First, an increasing activity period of bees across the flight season means that bee communities will potentially provide pollination services for a longer period of time during the year. And, since phenological trends in solitary bees can be explained by some ecological traits, our study provides insight into mechanisms underpinning population viability of insect pollinators in a changing world.

Seasonal timing on a cyclical Earth: Towards a theoretical framework for the evolution of phenology

Phenology refers to the seasonal timing patterns commonly exhibited by life on Earth, from blooming flowers to breeding birds to human agriculture. Climate change is altering abiotic seasonality (e.g., longer summers) and in turn, phenological patterns contained within. However, how phenology should evolve is still an unsolved problem. This problem lies at the crux of predicting future phenological changes that will likely have substantial ecosystem consequences, and more fundamentally, of understanding an undeniably global phenomenon. Most studies have associated proximate environmental variables with phenological responses in case-specific ways, making it difficult to contextualize observations within a general evolutionary framework. We outline the complex but universal ways in which seasonal timing maps onto evolutionary fitness. We borrow lessons from life history theory and evolutionary demography that have benefited from a first principles-based theoretical scaffold. Lastly, we identify key questions for theorists and empiricists to help advance our general understanding of phenology.

Consistent trait-temperature interactions drive butterfly phenology in both incidental and survey data

Data availability limits phenological research at broad temporal and spatial extents. Butterflies are among the few taxa with broad-scale occurrence data, from both incidental reports and formal surveys. Incidental reports have biases that are challenging to address, but structured surveys are often limited seasonally and may not span full flight phenologies. Thus, how these data source compare in phenological analyses is unclear. We modeled butterfly phenology in relation to traits and climate using parallel analyses of incidental and survey data, to explore their shared utility and potential for analytical integration. One workflow aggregated “Pollard” surveys, where sites are visited multiple times per year; the other aggregated incidental data from online portals: iNaturalist and eButterfly. For 40 species, we estimated early (10%) and mid (50%) flight period metrics, and compared the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of phenology across species and between datasets. For both datasets, inter-annual variability was best explained by temperature, and seasonal emergence was earlier for resident species overwintering at more advanced stages. Other traits related to habitat, feeding, dispersal, and voltinism had mixed or no impacts. Our results suggest that data integration can improve phenological research, and leveraging traits may predict phenology in poorly studied species.

Weather and butterfly responses: a framework for understanding population dynamics in terms of species' life-cycles and extreme climatic events

Understanding population responses to environmental conditions is key in the current context of climate change and the extreme climatic events that are threatening biodiversity in an unprecedented way. In this work, we provide a framework for understanding butterfly population responses to weather and extreme climatic seasons by taking into account topographic heterogeneity, species' life-cycles and density-dependent processes. We used a citizen-science database of Mediterranean butterflies that contains long-term population data (28 years) on 78 butterfly species from 146 sites in the Mediterranean mesic and alpine climate regions. Climatic data were obtained from 93 meteorological stations operating during this period near the butterfly sites. We studied how seasonal precipitation and temperature affect population growth while taking into account the effects of density dependence. Our results reveal (i) the beneficial effects of winter and spring precipitation for butterfly populations, which are most evident in the Mediterranean region and in univoltine species, and mainly affect the larval stage; (ii) a general negative effect of summer rain in the previous year, which affects the adult stage; and (iii) a consistent negative effect of mild autumns and winters on population growth. In addition, density dependence played a major role in the population dynamics of most species, except for those with long-term negative population trends. Our analyses also provide compelling evidence that both extreme population levels in previous years and extreme climatic seasons in the current year provoke population crashes and explosions, especially in the Mediterranean mesic region.

Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies

Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity—but not phenological trends—predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species’ abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.

Combining photoperiod and thermal responses to predict phenological mismatch for introduced insects

A wide variety of organisms use the regular seasonal changes in photoperiod as a cue to align their life cycles with favorable conditions. Yet the phenological consequences of photoperiodism for organisms exposed to new climates are often overlooked. We present a conceptual approach and phenology model that maps voltinism (generations per year) and the degree of phenological mismatch that can arise when organisms with a short-day diapause response are introduced to new regions or are otherwise exposed to new climates. Our degree-day-based model combines continent-wide spatialized daily climate data, calculated date-specific and latitude-specific day lengths, and experimentally determined developmental responses to both photoperiod and temperature. Using the case of the knotweed psyllid Aphalara itadori, a new biological control agent being introduced from Japan to North America and Europe to control an invasive weed, we show how incorporating a short-day diapause response will result in geographic patterns of attempted voltinism that are strikingly different from the potential number of generations based on degree-days alone. The difference between the attempted and potential generations represents a quantitative measure of phenological mismatch between diapause timing and the end of the growing season. We conclude that insects moved from lower to higher latitudes (or to cooler climates) will tend to diapause too late, potentially resulting in high mortality from inclement weather, and those moved from higher to lower latitude (to warmer climates) may be prone to diapausing too early, therefore not fully exploiting the growing season and/or suffering from insufficient reserves for the longer duration in diapause. Mapped output reveals a central region with good phenology match that shifts north or south depending on the geographic source of the insect and its corresponding critical photoperiod for diapause. These results have direct relevance for efforts to establish populations of classical biocontrol agents. More generally, our approach and model could be applied to a wide variety of photoperiod- and temperature-sensitive organisms that are exposed to changes in climate, including resident and invasive agricultural pests and species of conservation concern.

Larval parasitism in a specialist herbivore is explained by phenological synchrony and host plant availability

1. Parasitism is a key factor in the population dynamics of many herbivorous insects, although its impact on host populations varies widely, for instance, along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. Understanding the sources of geographical variation in host-parasitoid interactions is crucial for reliably predicting the future success of the interacting species under a context of global change. 2. Here, we examine larval parasitism in the butterfly Aglais urticae in south-west Europe, where it is a mountain specialist. Larval nests were sampled over two years along altitudinal gradients in three Iberian mountain ranges, including the Sierra Nevada, home to its southernmost European population. Additional data on nettle condition and adult butterflies were obtained in the study areas. 3. These data sources were used to investigate whether or not differences in parasitism rates are related to the geographical position and phenology of the host, and to the availability of the host plants. 4. Phenological differences in the host populations between regions were related to the severity of summer drought and the corresponding differences in host plant availability. At the trailing-edge of its distribution, the butterfly's breeding season was restricted to the end of winter and spring, while in its northern Iberian range the season was prolonged until mid-summer. Although parasitism was an important source of mortality in all regions, parasitism rates and parasitoid richness were highest in the north and lowest in the south. Moreover, within a region, there was a notable increase in parasitism rates over time, which probably led to selection against an additional late-summer host generation in northern regions. Conversely, the shorter breeding season in Sierra Nevada resulted in a loss of synchrony between the host and one important late-season parasitoid, Sturmia bella, which may partly explain the high density of this butterfly species at the trailing-edge of its range. 5. Our results support the key role of host phenology in accounting for differences in parasitism rates between populations. They also provide insights into how climate through host plant availability affects host phenology and, ultimately, the impact of parasitism on host populations.

Climate drivers of adult insect activity are conditioned by life history traits

Insect phenological lability is key for determining which species will adapt under environmental change. However, little is known about when adult insect activity terminates and overall activity duration. We used community-science and museum specimen data to investigate the effects of climate and urbanisation on timing of adult insect activity for 101 species varying in life history traits. We found detritivores and species with aquatic larval stages extend activity periods most rapidly in response to increasing regional temperature. Conversely, species with subterranean larval stages have relatively constant durations regardless of regional temperature. Species extended their period of adult activity similarly in warmer conditions regardless of voltinism classification. Longer adult durations may represent a general response to warming, but voltinism data in subtropical environments are likely underreported. This effort provides a framework to address the drivers of adult insect phenology at continental scales and a basis for predicting species response to environmental change.

Urbanization extends flight phenology and leads to local adaptation of seasonal plasticity in Lepidoptera

Cities represent novel environments with altered seasonality; they are warmer, which may accelerate growth, but light pollution can also lengthen days, misleading organisms that use daylength to predict seasonal change. Using long-term observational data, we show that urban populations of a butterfly and a moth have longer flight seasons than neighboring rural populations for six Nordic city regions. Next, using laboratory experiments, we show that the induction of diapause by daylength has evolved in urban populations in the direction predicted by urban warming. We thus show that the altered seasonality of urban environments can lead to corresponding evolutionary changes in the seasonal responses of urban populations, a pattern that may be repeated in other species.

Urbanization is gaining force globally, which challenges biodiversity, and it has recently also emerged as an agent of evolutionary change. Seasonal phenology and life cycle regulation are essential processes that urbanization is likely to alter through both the urban heat island effect (UHI) and artificial light at night (ALAN). However, how UHI and ALAN affect the evolution of seasonal adaptations has received little attention. Here, we test for the urban evolution of seasonal life-history plasticity, specifically changes in the photoperiodic induction of diapause in two lepidopterans, Pieris napi (Pieridae) and Chiasmia clathrata (Geometridae). We used long-term data from standardized monitoring and citizen science observation schemes to compare yearly phenological flight curves in six cities in Finland and Sweden to those of adjacent rural populations. This analysis showed for both species that flight seasons are longer and end later in most cities, suggesting a difference in the timing of diapause induction. Then, we used common garden experiments to test whether the evolution of the photoperiodic reaction norm for diapause could explain these phenological changes for a subset of these cities. These experiments demonstrated a genetic shift for both species in urban areas toward a lower daylength threshold for direct development, consistent with predictions based on the UHI but not ALAN. The correspondence of this genetic change to the results of our larger-scale observational analysis of in situ flight phenology indicates that it may be widespread. These findings suggest that seasonal life cycle regulation evolves in urban ectotherms and may contribute to ecoevolutionary dynamics in cities.

The complexity of global change and its effects on insects

Global change includes multiple overlapping and interacting drivers: 1) climate change, 2) land use change, 3) novel chemicals, and 4) the increased global transport of organisms. Recent studies have documented the complex and counterintuitive effects of these drivers on the behavior, life histories, distributions, and abundances of insects. This complexity arises from the indeterminacy of indirect, non-additive and combined effects. While there is wide consensus that global change is reorganizing communities, the available data are limited. As the pace of anthropogenic changes outstrips our ability to document its impacts, ongoing change may lead to increasingly unpredictable outcomes. This complexity and uncertainty argue for renewed efforts to address the fundamental drivers of global change.

Divergence in Photoperiod Responses of a Classical Biological Control Agent, Galerucella calmariensis (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), Across a Climatic and Latitudinal Gradient

A key knowledge gap in classical biological control is to what extent insect agents evolve to novel environments. The introduction of biological control agents to new photoperiod regimes and climates may disrupt the coordination of diapause timing that evolved to the growing season length in the native range. We tested whether populations of Galerucella calmariensis L. have evolved in response to the potential mismatch of their diapause timing since their intentional introduction to the United States from Germany in the 1990s. Populations collected from 39.4° to 48.8° latitude in the western United States were reared in growth chambers to isolate the effects of photoperiod on diapause induction and development time. For all populations, shorter day lengths increased the proportion of beetles that entered diapause instead of reproducing. The critical photoperiods, or the day length at which half of a population diapauses, differed significantly among the sampled populations, generally decreasing at lower latitudes. The latitudinal trend reflects changes in growing season length, which determines the number of generations possible, and in local day lengths, at the time when beetles are sensitive to this cue. Development times were similar across populations, with one exception, and did not vary with photoperiod. These results show that there was sufficient genetic variation from the two German source populations to evolve different photoperiod responses across a range of environmental conditions. This study adds to the examples of rapid evolution of seasonal adaptations in introduced insects.

Changes in flight period predict trends in abundance of Massachusetts butterflies

Phenological shifts are well-documented in the ecological literature. However, their significance for changes in demography and abundance is less clear. We used 27 years of citizen science monitoring to quantify trends in phenology and relative abundance across 89 butterfly species. We calculated shifts in phenology using quantile regression and shifts in relative abundance using list length analysis and counts from field trips. Elongated activity periods within a year were the strongest predictor of increases in relative abundance. These changes may be driven in part by changes in voltinism, as this association was stronger in multivoltine species. Some species appear to be adding a late-season generation, whereas other species appear to be adding a spring generation, revealing a possible shift from vagrant to resident. Our results emphasise the importance of evaluating phenological changes throughout species' flight period and understanding the consequences for such climate-related changes on viability or population dynamics.

Evolutionary impacts of winter climate change on insects

Overwintering is a serious challenge for insects, and winters are rapidly changing as climate shifts. The capacity for phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary adaptation will determine which species profit or suffer from these changes. Here we discuss current knowledge on the potential and evidence for evolution in winter-relevant traits among insect species and populations. We conclude that the best evidence for evolutionary shifts in response to changing winters remain those related to changes in phenology, but all evidence points to cold hardiness as also having the potential to evolve in response to climate change. Predicting future population sizes and ranges relies on understanding to what extent evolution in winter-related traits is possible, and remains a serious challenge.

Beyond thermal melanism: association of wing melanization with fitness and flight behaviour in a butterfly

Cold developmental conditions can greatly affect adult life history of ectotherms in seasonal habitats. Such effects are mostly negative, but sometimes adaptive. Here, we tested how cold conditions experienced during pupal development affect adult wing melanization of an insect ectotherm, the Glanville fritillary butterfly, Melitaea cinxia. We also assessed how in turn previous cold exposure and increased melanization can shape adult behaviour and fitness, by monitoring individuals in a seminatural set-up. We found that, despite pupal cold exposure inducing more melanization, wing melanization was not linked to adult thermoregulation preceding flight, under the conditions tested. Conversely, wing-vibrating behaviour had a major role in producing heat preceding flight. Moreover, more melanized individuals were more mobile across the experimental set-up. This may be caused by a direct impact of melanization on flight ability or a more indirect impact of coloration on behaviours such as mate search strategies and/or eagerness to disperse to more suitable mating habitats. We also found that more melanized individuals of both sexes had reduced mating success and produced fewer offspring, which suggests a clear fitness cost of melanization. Whether the reduced mating success is dictated by impaired mate search behaviour, reduced physical condition leading to a lower dominance status or weakened visual signalling remains unknown. In conclusion, while there was no clear role of melanization in providing a thermal advantage under our seminatural conditions, we found a fitness cost of being more melanized, which potentially impacted adult space use behaviour.