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Clare JDJ, de Valpine P, Moanga DA, Tingley MW, Beissinger SR. A cloudy forecast for species distribution models: Predictive uncertainties abound for California birds after a century of climate and land-use change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17019. [PMID: 37987241 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Revised: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast uncertainty into an analysis. To evaluate forecast uncertainties and our ability to explain community change, we fit and compared 39 candidate multi- or joint species occupancy models to avian incidence data collected at 320 sites across California during the early 20th century and resurveyed a century later. We found massive (>20,000 LOOIC) differences in within-time information criterion across models. Poorer fitting models omitting multivariate random effects predicted less variation in species richness changes and smaller contemporary communities, with considerable variation in predicted spatial patterns in richness changes across models. The top models suggested avian environmental associations changed across time, contemporary avian occupancy was influenced by previous site-specific occupancy states, and that both latent site variables and species associations with these variables also varied over time. Collectively, our results recapitulate that simplified model assumptions not only impact predictive fit but may mask important sources of forecast uncertainty and mischaracterize the current state of system understanding when seeking to describe or project community responses to global change. We recommend that researchers seeking to make long-term forecasts prioritize characterizing forecast uncertainty over seeking to present a single best guess. To do so reliably, we urge practitioners to employ models capable of characterizing the key sources of forecast uncertainty, where predictors, parameters and random effects may vary over time or further interact with previous occurrence states.
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Affiliation(s)
- John D J Clare
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Perry de Valpine
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Diana A Moanga
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA
| | - Morgan W Tingley
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Steven R Beissinger
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
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Ma L, Conradie SR, Crawford CL, Gardner AS, Kearney MR, Maclean IMD, McKechnie AE, Mi CR, Senior RA, Wilcove DS. Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities. Nat Commun 2023; 14:211. [PMID: 36639376 PMCID: PMC9839677 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-35814-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2021] [Accepted: 01/03/2023] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The world's warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due to climate change, yet the impacts on global desert biodiversity remain poorly understood. Because species in warm deserts live close to their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. Here, we combine climate change projections with biophysical models and species distributions to predict physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally. Our results show heterogeneous impacts between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror air temperature changes. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying extents in different desert realms. Only a small proportion (<20%) of refugia fall within existing protected areas. Our analysis highlights the need to increase protection of refugial areas within the world's warm deserts to protect species from climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liang Ma
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. .,School of Ecology, Shenzhen Campus of SunYat-sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
| | - Shannon R Conradie
- South African Research Chair in Conservation Physiology, South African National Biodiversity Institute, 2 Cussonia Ave, Brummeria, Pretoria, 0184, South Africa.,DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence at the FitzPatrick Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Lynnwood Rd., Pretoria, 0002, South Africa
| | - Christopher L Crawford
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Alexandra S Gardner
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Michael R Kearney
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Ilya M D Maclean
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Andrew E McKechnie
- South African Research Chair in Conservation Physiology, South African National Biodiversity Institute, 2 Cussonia Ave, Brummeria, Pretoria, 0184, South Africa.,DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence at the FitzPatrick Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Lynnwood Rd., Pretoria, 0002, South Africa
| | - Chun-Rong Mi
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Rebecca A Senior
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - David S Wilcove
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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Taheri S, Naimi B, Rahbek C, Araújo MB. Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:eabe1110. [PMID: 33827813 PMCID: PMC8026129 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abe1110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2020] [Accepted: 02/11/2021] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shirin Taheri
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Calle Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
- Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, Área de Biodiversidad y Conservación, Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnología, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, c/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles 28933, Spain
| | - Babak Naimi
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
- Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark
- Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Miguel B Araújo
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Calle Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
- Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, MED Institute, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Évora, Portugal
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Riddell EA, Iknayan KJ, Hargrove L, Tremor S, Patton JL, Ramirez R, Wolf BO, Beissinger SR. Exposure to climate change drives stability or collapse of desert mammal and bird communities. Science 2021; 371:633-636. [DOI: 10.1126/science.abd4605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2020] [Accepted: 01/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- E. A. Riddell
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50010, USA
| | - K. J. Iknayan
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- San Francisco Estuary Institute, Richmond, CA 94804, USA
| | - L. Hargrove
- Department of Birds and Mammals, San Diego Natural History Museum, San Diego, CA 92101, USA
| | - S. Tremor
- Department of Birds and Mammals, San Diego Natural History Museum, San Diego, CA 92101, USA
| | - J. L. Patton
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - R. Ramirez
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
| | - B. O. Wolf
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
| | - S. R. Beissinger
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
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