Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification

The Young and the Resilient: Investigating Coral Thermal Resilience in Early Life Stages

Global ocean warming is affecting keystone species distributions and fitness, resulting in the degradation of marine ecosystems. Coral reefs are one of the most diverse and productive marine ecosystems. However, reef-building corals, the foundational taxa of coral reef ecosystems, are severely threatened by thermal stress. Models predict 40-80% of global coral cover will be lost by 2100, which highlights the urgent need for widespread interventions to preserve coral reef functionality. There has been extensive research on coral thermal stress and resilience, but 95% of studies have focused on adult corals. It is necessary to understand stress during early life stages (larvae, recruits, and juveniles), which will better inform selective breeding programs that aim to replenish reefs with resilient stock. In this review, we surveyed the literature on coral thermal resilience in early life stages, and we highlight that studies have been conducted on relatively few species (commonly Acropora spp.) and in limited regions (mainly Australia). Reef-building coral management will be improved by comprehensively understanding coral thermal resilience and fitness across life stages, as well as in diverse species and regions.

Gene expression response under thermal stress in two Hawaiian corals is dominated by ploidy and genotype

Transcriptome data are frequently used to investigate coral bleaching; however, the factors controlling gene expression in natural populations of these species are poorly understood. We studied two corals, Montipora capitata and Pocillopora acuta, that inhabit the sheltered Kāne'ohe Bay, Hawai'i. M. capitata colonies in the bay are outbreeding diploids, whereas P. acuta is a mixture of clonal diploids and triploids. Populations were sampled from six reefs and subjected to either control (no stress), thermal stress, pH stress, or combined pH and thermal stress treatments. RNA-seq data were generated to test two competing hypotheses: (1) gene expression is largely independent of genotype, reflecting a shared treatment-driven response (TDE) or, (2) genotype dominates gene expression, regardless of treatment (GDE). Our results strongly support the GDE model, even under severe stress. We suggest that post-transcriptional processes (e.g., control of translation, protein turnover) modify the signal from the transcriptome, and may underlie the observed differences in coral bleaching sensitivity via the downstream proteome and metabolome.

Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world's coral reefs

Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth's reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.

Coral species-specific loss and physiological legacy effects are elicited by an extended marine heatwave

Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity, with potentially catastrophic consequences for marine ecosystems such as coral reefs. An extended heatwave and recovery time-series that incorporates multiple stressors and is environmentally realistic can provide enhanced predictive capacity for performance under climate change conditions. We exposed common reef-building corals in Hawai'i, Montipora capitata and Pocillopora acuta, to a 2-month period of high temperature and high PCO2 conditions or ambient conditions in a factorial design, followed by 2 months of ambient conditions. High temperature, rather than high PCO2, drove multivariate physiology shifts through time in both species, including decreases in respiration rates and endosymbiont densities. Pocillopora acuta exhibited more significantly negatively altered physiology, and substantially higher bleaching and mortality than M. capitata. The sensitivity of P. acuta appears to be driven by higher baseline rates of photosynthesis paired with lower host antioxidant capacity, creating an increased sensitivity to oxidative stress. Thermal tolerance of M. capitata may be partly due to harboring a mixture of Cladocopium and Durusdinium spp., whereas P. acuta was dominated by other distinct Cladocopium spp. Only M. capitata survived the experiment, but physiological state in heatwave-exposed M. capitata remained significantly diverged at the end of recovery relative to individuals that experienced ambient conditions. In future climate scenarios, particularly marine heatwaves, our results indicate a species-specific loss of corals that is driven by baseline host and symbiont physiological differences as well as Symbiodiniaceae community compositions, with the surviving species experiencing physiological legacies that are likely to influence future stress responses.

Triggers, cascades, and endpoints: connecting the dots of coral bleaching mechanisms

The intracellular coral-dinoflagellate symbiosis is the engine that underpins the success of coral reefs, one of the most diverse ecosystems on the planet. However, the breakdown of the symbiosis and the loss of the microalgal symbiont (i.e. coral bleaching) due to environmental changes are resulting in the rapid degradation of coral reefs globally. There is an urgent need to understand the cellular physiology of coral bleaching at the mechanistic level to help develop solutions to mitigate the coral reef crisis. Here, at an unprecedented scope, we present novel models that integrate putative mechanisms of coral bleaching within a common framework according to the triggers (initiators of bleaching, e.g. heat, cold, light stress, hypoxia, hyposalinity), cascades (cellular pathways, e.g. photoinhibition, unfolded protein response, nitric oxide), and endpoints (mechanisms of symbiont loss, e.g. apoptosis, necrosis, exocytosis/vomocytosis). The models are supported by direct evidence from cnidarian systems, and indirectly through comparative evolutionary analyses from non-cnidarian systems. With this approach, new putative mechanisms have been established within and between cascades initiated by different bleaching triggers. In particular, the models provide new insights into the poorly understood connections between bleaching cascades and endpoints and highlight the role of a new mechanism of symbiont loss, i.e. 'symbiolysosomal digestion', which is different from symbiophagy. This review also increases the approachability of bleaching physiology for specialists and non-specialists by mapping the vast landscape of bleaching mechanisms in an atlas of comprehensible and detailed mechanistic models. We then discuss major knowledge gaps and how future research may improve the understanding of the connections between the diverse cascade of cellular pathways and the mechanisms of symbiont loss (endpoints).

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Genomics for monitoring and understanding species responses to global climate change

All life forms across the globe are experiencing drastic changes in environmental conditions as a result of global climate change. These environmental changes are happening rapidly, incur substantial socioeconomic costs, pose threats to biodiversity and diminish a species' potential to adapt to future environments. Understanding and monitoring how organisms respond to human-driven climate change is therefore a major priority for the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing environment. Recent developments in genomic, transcriptomic and epigenomic technologies are enabling unprecedented insights into the evolutionary processes and molecular bases of adaptation. This Review summarizes methods that apply and integrate omics tools to experimentally investigate, monitor and predict how species and communities in the wild cope with global climate change, which is by genetically adapting to new environmental conditions, through range shifts or through phenotypic plasticity. We identify advantages and limitations of each method and discuss future research avenues that would improve our understanding of species' evolutionary responses to global climate change, highlighting the need for holistic, multi-omics approaches to ecosystem monitoring during global climate change.

Quantifying impacts of an environmental intervention using environmental DNA

Environmental laws around the world require some version of an environmental-impact assessment surrounding construction projects and other discrete instances of human development. Information requirements for these assessments vary by jurisdiction, but nearly all require an analysis of the biological elements of ecosystems. Amplicon-sequencing-also called metabarcoding-of environmental DNA (eDNA) has made it possible to sample and amplify the genetic material of many species present in those environments, providing a tractable, powerful, and increasingly common way of doing environmental-impact analysis for development projects. Here, we analyze an 18-month time series of water samples taken before, during, and after two culvert removals in a salmonid-bearing freshwater stream. We also sampled multiple control streams to develop a robust background expectation against which to evaluate the impact of this discrete environmental intervention in the treatment stream. We generate calibrated, quantitative metabarcoding data from amplifying the 12s MiFish mtDNA locus and complementary species-specific quantitative PCR data to yield multispecies estimates of absolute eDNA concentrations across time, creeks, and sampling stations. We then use a linear mixed effects model to reveal patterns of eDNA concentrations over time, and to estimate the effects of the culvert removal on salmonids in the treatment creek. We focus our analysis on four common salmonid species: cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii), coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). We find that one culvert in the treatment creek seemed to have no impact while the second culvert had a large impact on fish passage. The construction itself seemed to have only transient effects on salmonid species during the two construction events. In the context of billions of dollars of court-mandated road culvert replacements taking place in Washington State, USA, our results suggest that culvert replacement can be conducted with only minimal impact of construction to key species of management concern. Furthermore, eDNA methods can be an effective and efficient approach for monitoring hundreds of culverts to prioritize culverts that are required to be replaced. More broadly, we demonstrate a rigorous, quantitative method for environmental-impact reporting using eDNA that is widely applicable in environments worldwide.

Separate and combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on the branching reef corals Acropora digitifera and Montipora digitata

Ocean acidification (OA) and warming (OW) are major global threats to coral reef ecosystems; however, studies on their combined effects (OA + OW) are scarce. Therefore, we evaluated the effects of OA, OW, and OA + OW in the branching reef corals Acropora digitifera and Montipora digitata, which have been found to respond differently to environmental changes. Our results indicate that OW has a greater impact on A. digitifera and M. digitata than OA and that the former species is more vulnerable to OW than the latter. OW was the main stressor for increased mortality and decreased calcification in the OA + OW group, and the effect of OA + OW was additive in both species. Our findings suggest that the relative abundance and cover of M. digitata are expected to increase whereas those of A. digitifera may decrease in the near future in Okinawa.

Evaluation of the current understanding of the impact of climate change on coral physiology after three decades of experimental research

After three decades of coral research on the impacts of climate change, there is a wide consensus on the adverse effects of heat-stress, but the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) are not well established. Using a review of published studies and an experimental analysis, we confirm the large species-specific component of the OA response, which predicts moderate impacts on coral physiology and pigmentation by 2100 (scenario-B1 or SSP2-4.5), in contrast with the severe disturbances induced by only +2 °C of thermal anomaly. Accordingly, global warming represents a greater threat for coral calcification than OA. The incomplete understanding of the moderate OA response relies on insufficient attention to key regulatory processes of these symbioses, particularly the metabolic dependence of coral calcification on algal photosynthesis and host respiration. Our capacity to predict the future of coral reefs depends on a correct identification of the main targets and/or processes impacted by climate change stressors.

Learning from the past is not enough to survive present and future bleaching threshold temperatures

In the past decade, the frequency of mass coral bleaching events has increased due to seawater temperature anomalies persisting for longer periods. Coral survival from temperature anomalies has been based on how each species in each location responds to stress, which is unique to individual species and may be due to the way stressful experiences accumulate through time in the form of ecological and physiological memory. A deeper understanding of ecological and physiological memory in corals is necessary to understand their survival strategies into the future. Laboratory experiments can help us simulate seawater temperatures experienced by corals in the past and compare their responses to those of the present and future. In this study, we sampled corals with different life history traits from one location perturbed by seawater temperature incursions (variable site) and from a second, relatively undisturbed location (stable site). We sampled across two seasons to observe the responses to bleaching threshold temperatures in the past (1998-29 °C), present (2018-31 °C), and future (2050-33 °C). Corals were healthy at 29 °C and 31 °C, but a fast-growing, temperature-susceptible coral species experienced high mortality at 33 °C compared to a slow-growing, temperature-resistant coral species. Moreover, corals from the variable site and during the spring season fared better under temperature stress. The results of this study provide insight into the possible role of life-history traits on coral's response to seasons and locations in terms of memory to long-term and short-term thermal anomalies and climate change.

Deoxygenation lowers the thermal threshold of coral bleaching

Exposure to deoxygenation from climate warming and pollution is emerging as a contributing factor of coral bleaching and mortality. However, the combined effects of heating and deoxygenation on bleaching susceptibility remain unknown. Here, we employed short-term thermal stress assays to show that deoxygenated seawater can lower the thermal limit of an Acropora coral by as much as 1 °C or 0.4 °C based on bleaching index scores or dark-acclimated photosynthetic efficiencies, respectively. Using RNA-Seq, we show similar stress responses to heat with and without deoxygenated seawater, both activating putative key genes of the hypoxia-inducible factor response system indicative of cellular hypoxia. We also detect distinct deoxygenation responses, including a disruption of O2-dependent photo-reception/-protection, redox status, and activation of an immune response prior to the onset of bleaching. Thus, corals are even more vulnerable when faced with heat stress in deoxygenated waters. This highlights the need to integrate dissolved O2 measurements into global monitoring programs of coral reefs.

Is Ocean Acidification Really a Threat to Marine Calcifiers? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 980+ Studies Spanning Two Decades

Ocean acidification is considered detrimental to marine calcifiers, but mounting contradictory evidence suggests a need to revisit this concept. This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to critically re-evaluate the prevailing paradigm of negative effects of ocean acidification on calcifiers. Based on 5153 observations from 985 studies, many calcifiers (e.g., echinoderms, crustaceans, and cephalopods) are found to be tolerant to near-future ocean acidification (pH ≈ 7.8 by the year 2100), but coccolithophores, calcifying algae, and corals appear to be sensitive. Calcifiers are generally more sensitive at the larval stage than adult stage. Over 70% of the observations in growth and calcification are non-negative, implying the acclimation capacity of many calcifiers to ocean acidification. This capacity can be mediated by phenotypic plasticity (e.g., physiological, mineralogical, structural, and molecular adjustments), transgenerational plasticity, increased food availability, or species interactions. The results suggest that the impacts of ocean acidification on calcifiers are less deleterious than initially thought as their adaptability has been underestimated. Therefore, in the forthcoming era of ocean acidification research, it is advocated that studying how marine organisms persist is as important as studying how they perish, and that future hypotheses and experimental designs are not constrained within the paradigm of negative effects.

Metagenomic shifts in mucus, tissue and skeleton of the coral Balanophyllia europaea living along a natural CO2 gradient

Using the Mediterranean coral Balanophyllia europaea naturally growing along a pH gradient close to Panarea island (Italy) as a model, we explored the role of host-associated microbiomes in coral acclimatization to ocean acidification (OA). Coral samples were collected at three sites along the gradient, mimicking seawater conditions projected for 2100 under different IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios, and mucus, soft tissue and skeleton associated microbiomes were characterized by shotgun metagenomics. According to our findings, OA induced functional changes in the microbiomes genetic potential that could mitigate the sub-optimal environmental conditions at three levels: i. selection of bacteria genetically equipped with functions related to stress resistance; ii. shifts in microbial carbohydrate metabolism from energy production to maintenance of cell membranes and walls integrity; iii. gain of functions able to respond to variations in nitrogen needs at the holobiont level, such as genes devoted to organic nitrogen mobilization. We hence provided hypotheses about the functional role of the coral associated microbiome in favoring host acclimatation to OA, remarking on the importance of considering the crosstalk among all the components of the holobiont to unveil how and to what extent corals will maintain their functionality under forthcoming ocean conditions.

Impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcifying coral reef taxa: mechanisms responsible and adaptive capacity

Ocean warming (OW) and acidification (OA) are two of the greatest global threats to the persistence of coral reefs. Calcifying reef taxa such as corals and coralline algae provide the essential substrate and habitat in tropical reefs but are at particular risk due to their susceptibility to both OW and OA. OW poses the greater threat to future reef growth and function, via its capacity to destabilise the productivity of both taxa, and to cause mass bleaching events and mortality of corals. Marine heatwaves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration over the coming decades, raising the question of whether coral reefs will be able to persist as functioning ecosystems and in what form. OA should not be overlooked, as its negative impacts on the calcification of reef-building corals and coralline algae will have consequences for global reef accretion. Given that OA can have negative impacts on the reproduction and early life stages of both coralline algae and corals, the interdependence of these taxa may result in negative feedbacks for reef replenishment. However, there is little evidence that OA causes coral bleaching or exacerbates the effects of OW on coral bleaching. Instead, there is some evidence that OA alters the photo-physiology of both taxa. Tropical coralline algal possess shorter generation times than corals, which could enable more rapid evolutionary responses. Future reefs will be dominated by taxa with shorter generation times and high plasticity, or those individuals inherently resistant and resilient to both marine heatwaves and OA.

Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean

The ocean is warming, losing oxygen and being acidified, primarily as a result of anthropogenic carbon emissions. With ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation projected to increase for decades, extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, will intensify, occur more often, persist for longer periods of time and extend over larger regions. Nevertheless, our understanding of oceanic extreme events that are associated with warming, low oxygen concentrations or high acidity, as well as their impacts on marine ecosystems, remains limited. Compound events-that is, multiple extreme events that occur simultaneously or in close sequence-are of particular concern, as their individual effects may interact synergistically. Here we assess patterns and trends in open ocean extremes based on the existing literature as well as global and regional model simulations. Furthermore, we discuss the potential impacts of individual and compound extremes on marine organisms and ecosystems. We propose a pathway to improve the understanding of extreme events and the capacity of marine life to respond to them. The conditions exhibited by present extreme events may be a harbinger of what may become normal in the future. As a consequence, pursuing this research effort may also help us to better understand the responses of marine organisms and ecosystems to future climate change.

Integrating environmental variability to broaden the research on coral responses to future ocean conditions

Our understanding of the response of reef-building corals to changes in their physical environment is largely based on laboratory experiments, analysis of long-term field data, and model projections. Experimental data provide unique insights into how organisms respond to variation of environmental drivers. However, an assessment of how well experimental conditions cover the breadth of environmental conditions and variability where corals live successfully is missing. Here, we compiled and analyzed a globally distributed dataset of in-situ seasonal and diurnal variability of key environmental drivers (temperature, pCO₂ , and O₂ ) critical for the growth and livelihood of reef-building corals. Using a meta-analysis approach, we compared the variability of environmental conditions assayed in coral experimental studies to current and projected conditions in their natural habitats. We found that annual temperature profiles projected for the end of the 21st century were characterized by distributional shifts in temperatures with warmer winters and longer warm periods in the summer, not just peak temperatures. Furthermore, short-term hourly fluctuations of temperature and pCO₂ may regularly expose corals to conditions beyond the projected average increases for the end of the 21st century. Coral reef sites varied in the degree of coupling between temperature, pCO₂ , and dissolved O₂ , which warrants site-specific, differentiated experimental approaches depending on the local hydrography and influence of biological processes on the carbonate system and O₂ availability. Our analysis highlights that a large portion of the natural environmental variability at short and long timescales is underexplored in experimental designs, which may provide a path to extend our understanding on the response of corals to global climate change.