Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill

Whale recovery and the emerging human-wildlife conflict over Antarctic krill

The Southern Ocean ecosystem has undergone extensive changes in the past two centuries driven by industrial sealing and whaling, climate change and commercial fishing. However, following the end of commercial whaling, some populations of whales in this region are recovering. Baleen whales are reliant on Antarctic krill, which is also the largest Southern Ocean fishery. Since 1993, krill catch has increased fourfold, buoyed by nutritional supplement and aquaculture industries. In this Perspective, we approximate baleen whale consumption of Antarctic krill before and after whaling to examine if the ecosystem can support both humans and whales as krill predators. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that current krill biomass cannot support both an expanding krill fishery and the recovery of whale populations to pre-whaling sizes, highlighting an emerging human-wildlife conflict. We then provide recommendations for enhancing sustainability in this region by reducing encounters with whales and bolstering the krill population.

CS-PHOC: weekly census counts of Southern Ocean phocids at Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island

Rapid climatic warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is driving regional population declines and distribution shifts of predators and prey. Affected species include Antarctic ice seals and the southern elephant seal, all of which rely on the peninsula region for critical stages of their life cycle. However, data collection is difficult in this remote region, and therefore long-term time series with which to identify and investigate population trends in these species are rare. We present the Cape Shirreff Phocid Census (CS-PHOC) dataset: weekly counts of phocids (crabeater, leopard, southern elephant, and Weddell seals) hauled out at Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island, during most austral summers since 1997. Data from these censuses were cleaned and aggregated, resulting in robust and comparable count data from 284 censuses across 23 field seasons. The CS-PHOC dataset, which is publicly available through the SCAR Biodiversity Portal, will be updated yearly to provide important information about Southern Ocean phocids in the Antarctic Peninsula.

Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean

The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.

Driving forces of Antarctic krill abundance

Antarctic krill, crucial to the Southern Ocean ecosystem and a vital fisheries resource, is endangered by climate change. Identifying drivers of krill biomass is therefore essential for determining catch limits and designating protection zones. We present a modeling approach to pinpointing effects of sea surface temperature, ice cover, chlorophyll levels, climate indices, and intraspecific competition. Our study reveals that larval recruitment is driven by both competition among age classes and chlorophyll levels. In addition, while milder ice and temperature in spring and summer favor reproduction and early larval survival, both larvae and juveniles strongly benefit from heavier ice and colder temperatures in winter. We conclude that omitting top-down control of resources by krill is only acceptable for retrospective or single-year prognostic models that use field chlorophyll data but that incorporating intraspecific competition is essential for longer-term forecasts. Our findings can guide future krill modeling strategies, reinforcing the sustainability of this keystone species.

Quantifying Antarctic krill connectivity across the West Antarctic Peninsula and its role in large-scale Pygoscelis penguin population dynamics

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are considered a keystone species for higher trophic level predators along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) during the austral summer. The connectivity of krill may play a critical role in predator biogeography, especially for central-place foragers such as the Pygoscelis spp. penguins that breed along the WAP during the austral summer. Antarctic krill are also heavily fished commercially; therefore, understanding population connectivity of krill is critical to effective management. Here, we used a physical ocean model to examine adult krill connectivity in this region using simulated krill with realistic diel vertical migration behaviors across four austral summers. Our results indicate that krill north and south of Low Island and the southern Bransfield Strait are nearly isolated from each other and that persistent current features play a role in this lack of inter-region connectivity. Transit and entrainment times were not correlated with penguin populations at the large spatial scales examined. However, long transit times and reduced entrainment correlate spatially with the areas where krill fishing is most intense, which heightens the risk that krill fishing may lead to limited krill availability for predators.

Positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has driven poleward redistribution of the West Antarctic Peninsula biota through a food-chain mechanism

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has recorded a significant poleward range shift in marine biota, including Adélie penguins, Antarctic krill and phytoplankton. The ecological changes have been widely attributed to Pacific/Southern Hemisphere variabilities. However, the teleconnection from the North Atlantic Ocean, which also could induce changes in the WAP physical environments, has been overlooked. Here we combine state-of-the-art observational/modelling databases to quantify the poleward redistribution since the 1980s of three key members of the WAP biota and explored their response to several climatic oscillations. The abundance of Adélie penguins, Antarctic krill and phytoplankton in the WAP all show a decrease in the north and an increase in the south, leading to a poleward shift of their distribution centers by ~0.8-2.3°. A more positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has contributed to the poleward redistribution of phytoplankton/krill/penguin with a time lag of 0/1/5 yr, indicating a food-chain related mechanism. +AMO in spring resulted in reduced sea ice, earlier ice retreat and enhanced winds in the northern WAP, which constrained phytoplankton blooms and krill reproduction, thereby decreasing the krill recruitment 1 yr later and consequently the penguin recruitment 5 yr later. In the southern WAP, where the sea ice cover was nearly permanent in the 1980s, reduced sea ice and earlier ice retreat promoted phytoplankton growth and krill/penguin reproduction. Our results emphasize the global nature of climate-ecological coupling; the influence of the Northern Hemisphere climate system on Antarctic/Southern Ocean biota is a non-negligible factor for the ecosystem management.

Contrasting environmental conditions precluded lower availability of Antarctic krill affecting breeding chinstrap penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula

Dramatic decreases of chinstrap penguin populations across the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are thought to be influenced by climate-driven changes affecting its main prey, the Antarctic krill, however, empirical evidence supporting such hypotheses are scarce. By coupling data on breeding chinstrap penguins, environmental remote sensing and estimates of krill acoustic density, we were able to demonstrate that penguins substantially increased their foraging effort in a year of low krill availability, with consequent reduction in breeding success. A winter of low sea ice cover followed by a summer/spring with stronger wind and lower marine productivity explained the lower and deeper krill availability. Our results highlight the importance of environmental variability on penguin populations, as variability is expected to increase under climate change, affecting foraging behaviour responses.

Decreasing Trends of Chinstrap Penguin Breeding Colonies in a Region of Major and Ongoing Rapid Environmental Changes Suggest Population Level Vulnerability

The bulk of the chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus) global population inhabits the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea, which is a region undergoing rapid environmental changes. Consequently, regional level decreases for this species are widespread. This study aimed to evaluate the level of breeding colony changes in the Antarctic Peninsula and South Orkney Islands, which, roughly, hold 60% of the global chinstrap penguin population. The results indicated that within a period of 40 to 50 years, 62% of colonies underwent decreases, and the majority of colonies experienced decreases over 50%, which is represented by numbers in the range of 2000 to 40,000 pairs. Within three generations’ time, the whole population for the area had experienced decreases of around 30%. These levels of decrease add to the fact that the suspected causes are not likely reversible in the short- to mid-term, calling for increased concern about the conservation of this species.

Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate

Zooplankton are major consumers of phytoplankton primary production in marine ecosystems. As such, they represent a critical link for energy and matter transfer between phytoplankton and bacterioplankton to higher trophic levels and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. In this Review, we discuss key responses of zooplankton to ocean warming, including shifts in phenology, range, and body size, and assess the implications to the biological carbon pump and interactions with higher trophic levels. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps and geographic gaps in monitoring coverage that need to be urgently addressed. We also discuss an integrated sampling approach that combines traditional and novel techniques to improve zooplankton observation for the benefit of monitoring zooplankton populations and modelling future scenarios under global changes.