Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?

Quantifying co-extinctions and ecosystem service vulnerability in coastal ecosystems experiencing climate warming

Climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being, known as ecosystem services. Previous research has mainly focused on the direct effects of climate change on species and ecosystem services, leaving a gap in understanding the indirect impacts resulting from changes in species interactions within complex ecosystems. This knowledge gap is significant because the loss of a species in a food web can lead to additional species losses or "co-extinctions," particularly when the species most impacted by climate change are also the species that play critical roles in food web persistence or provide ecosystem services. Here, we present a framework to investigate the relationships among species vulnerability to climate change, their roles within the food web, their contributions to ecosystem services, and the overall persistence of these systems and services in the face of climate-induced species losses. To do this, we assess the robustness of food webs and their associated ecosystem services to climate-driven species extinctions in eight empirical rocky intertidal food webs. Across food webs, we find that highly connected species are not the most vulnerable to climate change. However, we find species that directly provide ecosystem services are more vulnerable to climate change and more connected than species that do not directly provide services, which results in ecosystem service provision collapsing before food webs. Overall, we find that food webs are more robust to climate change than the ecosystem services they provide and show that combining species roles in food webs and services with their vulnerability to climate change offer predictions about the impacts of co-extinctions for future food web and ecosystem service persistence. However, these conclusions are limited by data availability and quality, underscoring the need for more comprehensive data collection on linking species roles in interaction networks and their vulnerabilities to climate change.

Statistically downscaled CMIP6 ocean variables for European waters

Climate change impact studies need climate projections for different scenarios and at scales relevant to planning and management, preferably for a variety of models and realizations to capture the uncertainty in these models. To address current gaps, we statistically downscaled (SD) 3-7 CMIP6 models for five key indicators of marine habitat conditions: temperature, salinity, pH, oxygen, and chlorophyll across European waters for three climate scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Results provide ensemble averages and uncertainty estimates that can serve as input data for projecting the potential success of a range of Nature-based Solutions, including the restoration of habitat-forming species such as seagrass in the Mediterranean and kelp in coastal areas of Portugal and Norway. Evaluation of the ensemble with observations from four European regions (North Sea, Baltic Sea, Bay of Biscay, and Mediterranean Sea) indicates that the SD projections realistically capture the climatological conditions of the historical period 1993-2020. Model skill (Liu-mean efficiency, Pearson correlation) clearly improves for both surface temperature and oxygen across all regions with respect to the original ESMs demonstrating a higher skill for temperature compared to oxygen. Warming is evident across all areas and large differences among scenarios fully emerge from the background uncertainties related to internal variability and model differences in the second half of the century. Scenario-specific differences in acidification significantly emerge from model uncertainty and internal variability leading to distinct trajectories in surface pH starting before mid-century (in some cases starting from present day). Deoxygenation is also present across all domains, but the climate signal was significantly weaker compared to the other two indicators when compared to model uncertainty and internal variability, and the impact of different greenhouse gas trajectories is less distinct. The substantial regional and local heterogeneity in these three abiotic indicators underscores the need for highly spatially resolved physical and biogeochemical projections to understand how climate change may impact marine ecosystems.

Fecal and skin microbiota of two rescued Mediterranean monk seal pups during rehabilitation

IMPORTANCE

This study showed that during the rehabilitation of two rescued Mediterranean monk seal pups (Monachus monachus), the skin and fecal bacterial communities showed similar succession patterns between the two individuals. This finding means that co-housed pups share their microbiomes, and this needs to be considered in cases of infection outbreaks and their treatment. The housing conditions, along with the feeding scheme and care protocols, including the admission of antibiotics as prophylaxis, probiotics, and essential food supplements, resulted in bacterial communities with no apparent pathogenic bacteria. This is the first contribution to the microbiome of the protected seal species of M. monachus and contributes to the animal's conservation practices through its microbiome.

Experimental nest cooling reveals dramatic effects of heatwaves on reproduction in a Mediterranean bird of prey

Future climatic scenarios forecast increases in average temperatures as well as in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves. Whereas behavioral adjustments can buffer direct physiological and fitness costs of exposure to excessive temperature in wild animals, these may prove more difficult during specific life stages when vagility is reduced (e.g., early developmental stages). By means of a nest cooling experiment, we tested the effects of extreme temperatures on different stages of reproduction in a cavity-nesting Mediterranean bird of prey, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni), facing a recent increase in the frequency of heatwaves during its breeding season. Nest temperature in a group of nest boxes placed on roof terraces was reduced by shading them from direct sunlight in 2 consecutive years (2021 and 2022). We then compared hatching failure, mortality, and nestling morphology between shaded and non-shaded (control) nest boxes. Nest temperature in control nest boxes was on average 3.9°C higher than in shaded ones during heatwaves, that is, spells of extreme air temperature (>37°C for ≥2 consecutive days) which hit the study area during the nestling-rearing phase in both years. Hatching failure markedly increased with increasing nest temperature, rising above 50% when maximum nest temperatures exceeded 44°C. Nestlings from control nest boxes showed higher mortality during heatwaves (55% vs. 10% in shaded nest boxes) and those that survived further showed impaired morphological growth (body mass and skeletal size). Hence, heatwaves occurring during the breeding period can have both strong lethal and sublethal impacts on different components of avian reproduction, from egg hatching to nestling growth. More broadly, these findings suggest that the projected future increases of summer temperatures and heatwave frequency in the Mediterranean basin and elsewhere in temperate areas may threaten the local persistence of even relatively warm-adapted species.

Holobiont responses of mesophotic precious red coral Corallium rubrum to thermal anomalies

Marine heat waves (MHWs) have increased in frequency and intensity worldwide, causing mass mortality of benthic organisms and loss of biodiversity in shallow waters. The Mediterranean Sea is no exception, with shallow populations of habitat-forming octocorals facing the threat of local extinction. The mesophotic zone, which is less affected by MHWs, may be of ecological importance in conservation strategies for these species. However, our understanding of the response of mesophotic octocoral holobionts to changes in seawater temperature remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a study on an iconic Mediterranean octocoral, the red coral Corallium rubrum sampled at 60 m depth and 15 °C. We exposed the colonies to temperatures they occasionally experience (18 °C) and temperatures that could occur at the end of the century if global warming continues (21 °C). We also tested their response to extremely cold and warm temperatures (12 °C and 24 °C). Our results show a high tolerance of C. rubrum to a two-month long exposure to temperatures ranging from 12 to 21 °C as no colony showed signs of tissue loss, reduced feeding ability, stress-induced gene expression, or disruption of host-bacterial symbioses. At 24 °C, however, we measured a sharp decrease in the relative abundance of Spirochaetaceae, which are the predominant bacterial symbionts under healthy conditions, along with a relative increase in Vibrionaceae. Tissue loss and overexpression of the tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 gene were also observed after two weeks of exposure. In light of ongoing global warming, our study helps predict the consequences of MHWs on mesophotic coralligenous reefs and the biodiversity that depends on them.