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Lark TJ, Hendricks NP, Smith A, Pates N, Spawn-Lee SA, Bougie M, Booth EG, Kucharik CJ, Gibbs HK. Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2101084119. [PMID: 35165202 PMCID: PMC8892349 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2101084119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Accepted: 12/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler J Lark
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726;
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
| | - Nathan P Hendricks
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506
| | - Aaron Smith
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
| | - Nicholas Pates
- Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40546
| | - Seth A Spawn-Lee
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
| | - Matthew Bougie
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
| | - Eric G Booth
- Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706
- Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706
| | - Christopher J Kucharik
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706
| | - Holly K Gibbs
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
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Rehbein JA, Watson JEM, Lane JL, Sonter LJ, Venter O, Atkinson SC, Allan JR. Renewable energy development threatens many globally important biodiversity areas. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3040-3051. [PMID: 32133726 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2019] [Accepted: 02/18/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land-use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas (PAs), Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and Earth's remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 PAs, 749 KBAs and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in Southeast Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of PAs and KBAs impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jose A Rehbein
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science (CBCS), The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
- Dow Centre for Sustainable Engineering Innovation, School of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - James E M Watson
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science (CBCS), The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - Joe L Lane
- Dow Centre for Sustainable Engineering Innovation, School of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Qld, Australia
- Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Laura J Sonter
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science (CBCS), The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Oscar Venter
- Natural Resource and Environmental Studies Institute, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada
| | | | - James R Allan
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science (CBCS), The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:13294-13299. [PMID: 30530689 PMCID: PMC6310845 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1807745115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding how land-use and climate change interact is of major importance to project the future of biodiversity. We assessed how the global species richness of vertebrates may become affected by these two threats, especially under a scenario following the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 2 °C or even 1.5 °C. We found that combined effects of climate and land-use change will be most severe under such a scenario, due to the massive expansion of bioenergy cropland for climate change mitigation. While our findings suggest that the Paris goals will reduce direct climate change impacts on biodiversity, biodiversity will suffer as severely as under a high-level emission scenario if bioenergy remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world’s amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
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Mair L, Harrison PJ, Räty M, Bärring L, Strandberg G, Snäll T. Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2017; 27:1485-1497. [PMID: 28370800 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1541] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2017] [Accepted: 02/24/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Mair
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Philip J Harrison
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Minna Räty
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Lars Bärring
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Gustav Strandberg
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Tord Snäll
- Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7007, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden
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Titeux N, Henle K, Mihoub JB, Regos A, Geijzendorffer IR, Cramer W, Verburg PH, Brotons L. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:2505-15. [PMID: 26950650 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2015] [Revised: 02/25/2016] [Accepted: 02/29/2016] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Titeux
- European Bird Census Council (EBCC) and Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CEMFOR-CTFC), InForest Joint Research Unit (CSIC-CTFC-CREAF), Ctra. Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Solsona, Spain
- Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Earth and Life Institute, Croix du Sud 2, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain
| | - Klaus Henle
- Department of Conservation Biology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Jean-Baptiste Mihoub
- Department of Conservation Biology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany
- Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CESCO, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Paris, France
| | - Adrián Regos
- European Bird Census Council (EBCC) and Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CEMFOR-CTFC), InForest Joint Research Unit (CSIC-CTFC-CREAF), Ctra. Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Solsona, Spain
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain
| | - Ilse R Geijzendorffer
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Bâtiment Villemin, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, BP 80, 13545, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 04, France
| | - Wolfgang Cramer
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Bâtiment Villemin, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, BP 80, 13545, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 04, France
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Department of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Lluís Brotons
- European Bird Census Council (EBCC) and Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CEMFOR-CTFC), InForest Joint Research Unit (CSIC-CTFC-CREAF), Ctra. Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Solsona, Spain
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain
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