Body mass index and risk of recurrent falls in community-dwelling Japanese aged 40-74 years: The Murakami cohort study

Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels are not associated with a high risk of recurrent falls in community-dwelling Japanese adults: the Murakami cohort study

Reports on the association between vitamin D levels and fall risk have been mixed, and long-term follow-up studies are lacking. This 5-year cohort study of 5,343 community-dwelling Japanese people aged 40-74 years found that low vitamin D levels are not associated with a high risk of recurrent falls.

PURPOSE

Findings of cohort studies on the association between plasma 25-hydoxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) levels and fall risk have been mixed, and long-term follow-up studies are lacking. The present study investigated whether low plasma 25(OH)D levels are longitudinally associated with a high risk of recurrent falls in adults.

METHODS

This 5-year cohort study included 5,343 community-dwelling Japanese people aged 40-74 years. Baseline blood collection and a questionnaire survey were conducted in 2011-2013. Plasma 25(OH)D levels were determined and divided into quintiles after stratification by season, sex, and age group. Information on recurrent falls occurring in the year before the survey 5 years later was obtained, and participants with two or more falls were considered to have experienced recurrent falls. Covariates were sex, age, marital status, education, occupation, BMI, total physical activity levels, calcium intake, vitamin K intake, smoking, drinking, and disease history.

RESULTS

Mean age and 25(OH)D levels were 60.9 years and 50.9 nmol/L, respectively. In the follow-up survey, 209 recurrent falls were reported. Plasma 25(OH)D levels were not significantly associated with the occurrence of recurrent falls in men, women, or men/women-combined (adjusted P for trend = 0.1198, 0.8383, and 0.2355, respectively). In men and men/women-combined, adjusted ORs for recurrent falls in the lowest quintile were significantly lower (adjusted OR = 0.42 and 0.59, respectively) than the middle quintile (reference).

CONCLUSION

Low plasma 25(OH)D levels are not associated with a high risk of recurrent falls in middle-aged and older people. Further longitudinal studies will be needed to confirm our findings in other populations.

Chronic Pain in the Lower Extremities and Low Back is Associated With Recurrent Falls in Community-Dwelling Japanese People Aged 40-74 Years

OBJECTIVE

To determine the longitudinal association between chronic pain in the lower extremities and low back and the odds of recurrent falls in middle-aged and older people.

DESIGN

A cohort study.

SETTING

Communities in Japan.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were 7540 community-dwelling volunteers aged 40-74 years (N=7540). The baseline survey was a self-administered questionnaire conducted between 2011-2013. Predictors were presence of chronic pain in the knee, foot or ankle, and low back, with the degree of pain categorized as none, very mild/mild, moderate, or severe/very severe. Covariates in the multivariate model of chronic pain in a site were demographics, body mass index, physical activity level, disease history, and chronic pain in the other 2 sites. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs).

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Recurrent falls in the year before the 5-year follow-up survey.

RESULTS

Mean participant age was 60.2 years. Higher degrees of chronic pain were associated with higher odds of recurrent falls for the knee (P=.0002) with a higher OR of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.11-1.97), for the foot or ankle (P=.0001) with a higher OR of 1.97 (95% CI: 1.36-2.86), and for the low back (P=.0470) with a higher OR of 1.45 (95% CI: 1.09-1.91) in those with any degree of pain relative to those without pain. Higher degrees of chronic knee pain were associated with higher odds of recurrent falls in women (P=.0005), but not in men (P=.0813). Meanwhile, higher degrees of chronic low back pain were associated with the odds of recurrent falls in men (P=.0065), but not in women (P=.8735).

CONCLUSIONS

Chronic pain in the knee, foot or ankle, and lower back was independently and dose-dependently associated with a higher risk of recurrent falls. A marked sex-dependent difference was also noted in the association.

Body mass index, height, and osteoporotic fracture risk in community-dwelling Japanese people aged 40-74 years

INTRODUCTION

The association between body size and fracture risk is complex and varies by sex and ethnicity. This study aimed to examine associations of body mass index (BMI) and height with osteoporotic fracture risk in middle-aged and older people.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This 10-year cohort study included 13,151 community-dwelling Japanese people aged 40-74 years. A self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted at baseline to obtain information on demographic characteristics, body size, lifestyle, and disease history. BMI (kg/m2) was categorized as underweight (< 18.5), low-normal (18.5-21.7), high-normal (21.8-24.9), overweight (25.0-29.9), and obese (≥ 30.0). Height was categorized into quartiles. All incident cases of major osteoporotic fractures, including fractures of the distal radius, neck of the humerus, neck or trochanter of the femur, and vertebrae, were obtained from medical records during follow-up.

RESULTS

Mean participant age was 58.8 years. In men, the underweight group had a significantly higher hazard ratio (HR) for total fracture (adjusted HR = 2.46), and the obese group had significantly higher HRs for total (adjusted HR = 3.01) and vertebral (HR = 3.77) fractures relative to the reference (overweight) group. No significant associations were observed between BMI and risk of any fracture in women. Higher quartiles of height were associated with higher vertebral fracture risk (adjusted P for trend = 0.023) only in women.

CONCLUSION

BMI and osteoporotic fracture risk showed a U-shaped association in men, whereas higher height was associated with higher vertebral fracture risk in women, suggesting sex-dependent differences in these associations.

Long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms and machine learning techniques for fall prediction in older adults:Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)

BACKGROUND

Falls are the most common adverse outcome of depression in older adults, yet a accurate risk prediction model for falls stratified by distinct long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms is still lacking.

METHODS

We collected the data of 1617 participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study register, spanning between 2011 and 2018. The 36 input variables included in the baseline survey were regarded as candidate features. The trajectories of depressive symptoms were classified by the latent class growth model and growth mixture model. Three data balancing technologies and four machine learning algorithms were utilized to develop predictive models for fall classification of depressive prognosis.

RESULTS

Depressive symptom trajectories were divided into four categories, i.e., non-symptoms, new-onset increasing symptoms, slowly decreasing symptoms, and persistent high symptoms. The random forest-TomekLinks model achieved the best performance among the case and incident models with an AUC-ROC of 0.844 and 0.731, respectively. In the chronic model, the gradient boosting decision tree-synthetic minority oversampling technique obtained an AUC-ROC of 0.783. In the three models, the depressive symptom score was the most crucial component. The lung function was a common and significant feature in both the case and the chronic models.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the ideal model has a good chance of identifying older persons with a high risk of falling stratified by long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms. Baseline depressive symptom score, lung function, income, and injury experience are influential factors associated with falls of depression evolution.