Rational expectations? An explorative study of subjective survival probabilities and lifestyle across Europe

Effects of Future Subjective Expectations on Cognitive Decline and Dementia among Middle-Aged and Older Adults

This study investigated the impact of subjective expectations of the future (e.g., income, life expectancy, and national policies) on the onset of dementia and mild cognitive impairment by sex and age in middle-aged and older adults. The Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) data from 2008 to 2020, comprising 4116 people above 45 years, were used. A time-series analysis and multiple panel logistic regression were conducted to highlight subjective expectation trends and their effect on dementia and mild cognitive impairment, respectively. Low subjective expectations of the future negatively affected cognitive impairment (total: odds ratio [OR] = 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-1.03) and dementia (total: OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.03-1.06), and those of national policies were the biggest risk factors for cognitive impairment (total: OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.12-1.22) and dementia (total: OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.07-1.13). Individuals about to retire and with low expectations of workability were more likely to develop cognitive impairment (total: OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.02-1.06). Subjective expectations of economic downturn also caused cognitive impairment, especially in women (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.07) and early stage older adults (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.10). Policymakers must consider the impact of changes in national policies and living environments on cognitive impairment and dementia in older adults.

Black and white differences in subjective survival expectations: An evaluation of competing mechanisms

While black-white inequality in longevity is well documented in the United States, little is known about how individuals from different race/ethnic groups form their own personal survival expectations. Prior research has found that despite having higher mortality, blacks on average report higher survival expectations relative to whites. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined racial differences in subjective survival expectations across birth cohorts and provide explanatory mechanisms. We find that blacks-men in particular-were overly optimistic about their survival, but this effect had waned with successive birth cohorts. Furthermore, whereas subjective survival expectations and actual survival were correlated among white men, among black men the most optimistic fared worst. Blacks and whites differed not only in their response patterns, but also in how they weighed the different factors (socioeconomic, psychosocial, health, parental longevity) associated with expected survival. Importantly, those who estimated their survival probability with certainty had positive psychosocial characteristics, irrespective of race, but only whites had better health. These findings underscore the importance of group differences in subjective survival expectations as another potential form of inequality. Racial differences in how long individual expect to live may account for differences in social and economic behavior and outcomes, irrespective of actual longevity differentials.

Generalized residuals and outlier detection for ordinal data with challenging data structures

Motivated by the analysis of rating data concerning perceived health status, a crucial variable in biomedical, economic and life insurance models, the paper deals with diagnostic procedures for identifying anomalous and/or influential observations in ordinal response models with challenging data structures. Deviations due to some respondents’ atypical behavior, outlying covariates and gross errors may affect the reliability of likelihood based inference, especially when non robust link functions are adopted. The present paper investigates and exploits the properties of the generalized residuals. They appear in the estimating equations of the regression coefficients and hold the remarkable characteristic of interacting with the covariates in the same fashion as the linear regression residuals. Identification of statistical units incoherent with the model can be achieved by the analysis of the residuals produced by maximum likelihood or robust M-estimation, while the inspection of the weights generated by M-estimation allows to identify influential data. Simple guidelines are proposed to this end, which disclose information on the data structure. The purpose is twofold: recognizing statistical units that deserve specific attention for their peculiar features, and being aware of the sensitivity of the fitted model to small changes in the sample. In the analysis of the self-perceived health status, extreme design points associated with incoherent responses produce highly influential observations. The diagnostic procedures identify the outliers and assess their influence.

Subjective life expectancy of middle-aged and older adult cancer survivors: A cross-sectional study in Korea using age-specific subgroup analysis

OBJECTIVE

As the population ages and the survival rate of cancer patients increases, long-term management of older adult cancer survivors has become important. Subjective life expectancy (SLE) is a concept that refers to an individual's particular predicted lifespan, which enables individuals to live an active life with hopeful expectations for the extension of a healthy life. Therefore, this study aims to identify the factors related to SLE according to age group, to help enable middle-aged and older adult cancer survivors to actively live out their lives with a sense of control.

DESIGN

A descriptive, cross-sectional study was used.

METHODS

This study included 538 participants in the fifth to seventh survey data of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging dataset. Moreover, we conducted multivariable regression analyses.

RESULTS

The participants of this study were 137 middle-aged (under 64 years), 196 young-old (65-74 years), 164 old-old (75-84 years) and 41 oldest-old (over 85 years) cancer survivors. The mean age of the participants was 71.22 ± 9.4 years. The factors related to SLE were employment status (β = 7.43, p = 0.018) and quality of life (QOL) (β = 0.25, p = 0.010) for the middle-aged group and age (β = -1.50, p = 0.002) and employment status (β = 10.44, p = 0.003), and QOL (β = 0.31, p < 0.001) in the young-old group; in the old-old group and oldest-old group, the predictors of SLE were QOL (β = 0.35, p = 0.004) and social network (β = 2.76, p = 0.018).

CONCLUSION

The SLE of middle-aged and older adult cancer survivors was different by age group, and related factors also varied by it. Therefore, an individual approach for each age group is required to effectively promote SLE.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

By developing and applying differentiated nursing interventions suitable for each age group for middle-aged and older adult cancer survivors, it should be possible to help them make a healthy transition with positive expectations for life extension.

Quantifying self-rated age

Chronological age, in conjunction with population life tables, is widely used for estimating future life expectancy. The aims of this study are to estimate a subjective ageing indicator, namely self-rated age, and to evaluate its concurrent validity in comparison with other age indicators: subjective survival probabilities, subjective age, and biological age. We use data from the Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, Wave 12 of the Health and Retirement Study in the United States, and life tables from the Human Mortality Database. For the statistical analysis we use multinomial regression models. Our results indicate that health status and frequency of physical activities imply similar patterns of self- rated age, subjective survival probabilities, subjective age, and biological age. However, the impact of cognitive function differs by geographical region. Self-rated age can be interpreted as a subjective adjustment that better reflects the ageing process.

Subjective expectations regarding longevity and future health: a cross-sectional survey among patients with Crohn's disease

AIM

The aim was to explore the subjective health expectations (sHE) of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) for both the near future and the elderly.

METHOD

A cross-sectional survey was performed in four gastroenterology centres in Hungary. Consecutive outpatients with CD with age ≥ 18 were recruited. Socio-demographic and disease characteristics were recorded and the Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI), Perianal Disease Activity Index, Patients' Global Assessment (PGA) and current pain visual analogue scale (VAS) were assessed. Subjective life expectancy (sLE) was explored and compared to statistical life expectancy. Current health and sHE for 1 year ahead and for ages 60/70/80/90 were assessed using the descriptive system of the EQ-5D-3L.

RESULTS

In all, 206 patients (54.9% men) with a mean age of 34.7 (SD 10.5 years) and disease duration of 10.5 (SD 6.3) years were studied. The CDAI score was 110.5 (SD 77.0) and 66% were treated by biologic drugs. Mean current EQ-5D-3L score was 0.80 (SD 0.17) and patients expected a 0.05 (SD 0.15) improvement within a year (P < 0.05). For ages 60/70/80/90, a mean EQ-5D-3L score of 0.59, 0.38, 0.10 and -0.12 respectively was provisioned. Age, current health status, sLE, PGA and pain VAS showed significant correlation with both 1-year and older age sHE (P < 0.05). Long-term sHE and sLE were negatively affected by the presence of extraintestinal manifestations but not by previous CD-related surgery.

CONCLUSION

Patients with CD expect severe deterioration in health in later life. Given that unrealistic sHE may affect patients' current quality of life and health behaviour, we encourage physicians to explore and consider CD patients' sHE in clinical care.

Self-assessed life expectancy among older adults in Côte d'Ivoire

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to estimate individuals' expected longevity based on self-assessed survival probabilities and determine the predictors of such subjective life expectancy in a sample of elderly people (50 years and older) in Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS

Paper-based questionnaires were administered to a sample (n = 267) of older adults residing in the city of Dabou, Côte d'Ivoire in May 2017. Information on subjective expectations regarding health, comorbidities, and self-assessed survival probabilities was collected. We estimated self-assessed life expectancy and its determinants using a two-pronged approach by: (i) estimating individuals' life expectancy using the self-assessed survival probabilities (SSPs), and (ii) applying a finite mixture of regression models to form homogenous groups of individuals (clusters/components) and investigate the determinants. A spline-based approach was used to estimate the overall distribution of life expectancy for each individual using two to four points of self-assessed survival probabilities. A finite mixture of regression models was used to identify homogeneous groups of individuals (i.e. clusters/components) of the overall subjective life expectancy distribution of the study participants.

RESULTS

The mean subjective life expectancy in older people varied according to four components/clusters. The average subjective life expectancy among the elderly was 79.51, 78.89, 80.02, and 77.79 years in the first, second, third, and fourth component of the subjects' overall subjective life expectancy, respectively. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and lifestyle on subjective life expectancy varied across components. For instance, a U-shape relationship between household per capita income and subjective life expectancy was found for individuals classified into the third component, and an inverse U-shape relationship was found for individuals classified into the fourth component.

CONCLUSIONS

We extended the estimation of subjective life expectancy by accounting for heterogeneity in the distribution of the estimated subjective life expectancy. This approach improved the usual methods for estimating individual subjective life expectancies and may provide insight into the elderly's perception of aging, which could be used to forecast the demand for health services and long-term care needs.

Subjective health expectations of patients with age-related macular degeneration treated with antiVEGF drugs

Background

Subjective expectations regarding future health may influence patients’ judgement of current health and treatment effects, as well as adherence to therapies in chronic diseases. We aimed to explore subjective expectations on longevity and future health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treated with antiVEGF injections and analyse the influencing factors.

Methods

Consecutive AMD patients in two ophthalmology centres were included. Demographics, clinical characteristics and informal care utilisation were recorded. Current health was evaluated by the EQ-5D generic health status questionnaire and time trade-off (TTO) methods. Happiness was measured on a visual analogue scale (VAS). Subjective life-expectancy and expected EQ-5D status at ages 70, 80 and 90 were surveyed. T-test was applied to compare subgroups and Pearson correlations were performed to analyse relationships between variables.

Results

One hundred twenty two patients were involved (females 62%) with a mean (SD) age of 75.2 (7.9) years and disease duration of 2.9 (2.5) years. The majority were in AREDS-4 state, the better eye’s ETDRS was 64.7 (15.4). EQ-5D and TTO revealed moderate deterioration of health (0.66 vs. 0.72, p = 0.131), happiness VAS was 6.3 (2.2). Correlation between EQ-5D and ETDRS was moderate (R = 0.242, p < 0.05) and having both versus one eye in AREDS-4 resulted lower TTO (0.68 vs. 0.83; p = 0.013). Subjective life-expectancy did not differ significantly from statistical life-expectancy and had no significant impact on TTO. The self-estimated mean EQ-5D score was 0.60, 0.40 and 0.24 for ages 70, 80 and 90 which is lower than the population norm of age-groups 65–74, 75–84 and 85+ (0.77, 0.63 and 0.63, respectively). Age, gender, current EQ-5D, need for informal care and happiness were deterministic factors of subjective health expectations.

Conclusion

AMD patients with antiVEGF treatment have comparable HRQOL as the age-matched general public but expect a more severe deterioration of health with age. Older patients with worse HRQOL have worse subjective expectations. Exploring patients’ health expectations provides an opportunity for ophthalmologists to correct misperceptions and improve the quality of AMD care. Further studies should provide evidences on the relationship between subjective expectations and actual health outcomes, and on its impact on patients’ AMD-specific health behaviour.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-017-0619-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Subjective life expectancy is a risk factor for perceived health status and mortality

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between subjective life expectancy (SLE) and self-rated health and further SLE will predict higher risk for mortality.

METHODS

Data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) from 2006 to 2014 was assessed using longitudinal data analysis and 10,244 research subjects were included at baseline in 2006. Our modeling approach was based on generalized estimating equation (GEE) for self-rated health and Cox proportional hazards models for mortality.

RESULTS

SLE was significantly associated with mortality (p for trend <0.0001), with the following ORs predicting mortality (yes vs. no): HR = 2.133 (p < .0001) for 0%, HR = 1.805 (p < .0001) for 10-20%, HR = 1.494 (p 0.002) for 30-40%, HR = 1.423 (p 0.002) for 50-60%, HR = 1.157 (p 0.235) for 70-80%, vs. 90-100%. In terms of age-specific association with SLE for self-rated health and mortality, as subjects got older, self-rated health tended to lean more toward poor self-rated health, but as for mortality, the probability of dying increased for people who are younger and HR also tended to increase.

CONCLUSION

This study has shown that SLE is associated with self-rated health and further is a powerful predictor of mortality after adjusting for self-rated health as well as sociodemographic factors and health risk status and behavior factors in a representative population of Koreans.

A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates

Understanding subjective longevity expectations is important, but measurement is not straightforward. Two common elicitation formats are the direct measurement of a subjective point estimate of life expectancy and the assessment of survival probabilities to a range of target ages. This study presents one of the few direct comparisons of these two methods. Results from a representative sample of the Dutch population indicate that respondents on average gave higher estimates of longevity using survival probabilities (83.6 years) compared to point estimates (80.2 years). Individual differences between elicitation methods were smaller for younger respondents and for respondents with a higher socioeconomic status. The correlation between the subjective longevity estimations was moderate, but their associations with respondents' characteristics were similar. Our results are in line with existing literature and suggest that findings from both elicitation methods may not be directly comparable, especially in certain subgroups of the population. Implications of inconsistent and focal point answers, rounding and anchoring require further attention. More research on the measurement of subjective expectations is required.