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De Simone E, Cicatiello L, Gaeta GL, Pinto M. Expectations About Future Economic Prospects and Satisfaction with Democracy: Evidence from European Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis. Soc Indic Res 2021; 159:1017-1033. [PMID: 34465937 PMCID: PMC8390053 DOI: 10.1007/s11205-021-02783-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/10/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Recent studies highlight that economic expectations are a crucial determinant of citizens' satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This article relies on a cross-sectional analysis of European survey data collected in the aftermath of COVID-19 disease to investigate the relationship between citizens' expectations about future economic prospects and their SWD. Our findings support the idea that citizens' expectations about future economic prospects are correlated with SWD. Furthermore, they reveal that perceived conditions of material wellbeing moderate this relationship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elina De Simone
- Department of Economics, Roma Tre University, Via Silvio D’Amico 77, 00145 Rome, Italy
| | - Lorenzo Cicatiello
- Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Economics, University of Basilicata, Via dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta
- Department of Human and Social Sciences, University of Naples L’Orientale, Largo San Giovanni Maggiore 30, 80134 Naples, Italy
| | - Mauro Pinto
- Department of Political Sciences “Jean Monnet”, University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Viale Ellittico 31, 81100 Caserta, Italy
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Kettlewell N. The informational content of subjective expectations for health service use. BMC Health Serv Res 2021; 21:464. [PMID: 34001127 PMCID: PMC8130259 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-021-06464-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2020] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background This study aims to evaluate the informational content of people’s subjective probability expectations for using various health services. Methods Using a sample of 1,528 Australian adults (25-64 years), I compared stated probabilities of visiting various health service providers (hospitals, dentists, optometrists, physiotherapists and related care providers, naturopaths and massage therapists) with past utilization and with predicted utilization estimated out-of-sample. I also estimated whether past utilization and subjective expectations were predicted by the same covariates. Finally, I estimated whether subjective expectations had predictive power for the choice to purchase private health insurance conditional on past utilization and other controls. Results Subjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. Subjective expectations also add predictive power to models estimating insurance take-up, even after conditioning on prior health care use and other risk factors. Conclusion The findings are indicative that on average people form quite accurate expectations, and support collecting subjective expectations about health services in household surveys for use in applied research. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12913-021-06464-7).
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan Kettlewell
- University of Technology Sydney, 15 Broadway, Ultimo NSW, 2007, Australia.
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Abstract
Directly eliciting individuals' subjective beliefs via surveys is increasingly popular in social science research, but doing so via face-to-face surveys has an important downside: the interviewer's knowledge of the topic may spill over onto the respondent's recorded beliefs. Using a randomized experiment that used interviewers to implement an information treatment, we show that reported beliefs are significantly shifted by interviewer knowledge. Trained interviewers primed respondents to use the exact numbers used in the training, nudging them away from higher answers; recorded responses decreased by about 0.3 standard deviations of the initial belief distribution. Furthermore, respondents with stronger prior beliefs were less affected by interviewer knowledge. We suggest corrections for this issue from the perspectives of interviewer recruitment, survey design, and experiment setup.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason T Kerwin
- Department of Applied Economics and Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Natalia Ordaz Reynoso
- Department of Applied Economics and Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
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Péntek M, Hajdu O, Rencz F, Beretzky Z, Brodszky V, Baji P, Zrubka Z, Major K, Gulácsi L. Subjective expectations regarding ageing: a cross-sectional online population survey in Hungary. Eur J Health Econ 2019; 20:17-30. [PMID: 31111403 PMCID: PMC6544751 DOI: 10.1007/s10198-019-01059-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2019] [Accepted: 04/14/2019] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to investigate individuals' subjective expectations regarding health and happiness alongside their provisions on life circumstances for older ages. METHODS A cross-sectional online survey was performed involving a representative sample (N = 1000; mean age 50.9, SD = 15.4; female 54.5%) in Hungary. Subjective expectations on health status (EQ-5D-3L/-5L, GALI, WHO-5), happiness (0-10 VAS), employment status, care time, and forms of care for ages 60, 70, 80, and 90 were surveyed. RESULTS Current mean EQ-5D-5L was 0.869 (SD = 0.164) and happiness was 6.7 (SD = 2.4). Subjective life expectancy was 80.9 (SD = 11.1), and median expected retirement age was 65. Mean expected EQ-5D-5L for ages 60/70/80/90 was 0.761/0.684/0.554/0.402, and no activity limitations (GALI) were expected by 64%/40%/18%/14%, respectively. Expected happiness score was 6.8/6.7/6.2/5.7, and a decrease in mental well-being (WHO-5) was provisioned. A substantial increase in drug expenses and care time was anticipated, but only 52% thought to have extra income besides pension. The great majority expected to be helped by the family (77%/72%/53%/40%) if needed. Educational level, GALI, and longevity expectations were significant predictors of EQ-5D-5L expectations using a standard 5% significance level of decision. Current happiness was major determinant of expected future happiness. CONCLUSIONS Individuals expect a significant deterioration of health with age but only a moderate decrease in happiness. Overestimation of future activity limitations suggests a gap between statistical and subjective healthy life expectancy. The majority expects to rely on informal care in the elderly. Raise in retirement age is underestimated. Our results can be used as inputs for economic modelling of labor force participation and ageing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Márta Péntek
- Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary.
| | - Ottó Hajdu
- Department of Comparative Economics, Institute of Business Economics, Eötvös Loránd University, Szép u. 2, Budapest, 1053, Hungary
| | - Fanni Rencz
- Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
- Premium Postdoctoral Research Programme, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Nádor u. 7, Budapest, 1051, Hungary
| | - Zsuzsanna Beretzky
- Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
- Doctoral School of Business and Management, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
| | - Valentin Brodszky
- Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
| | - Petra Baji
- Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
| | - Zsombor Zrubka
- Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
- Doctoral School of Business and Management, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
| | - Klára Major
- Department of Macroeconomics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
| | - László Gulácsi
- Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8., Budapest, 1093, Hungary
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Abstract
This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual's subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information-mainly their parents' survival and longevity-to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brigitte Dormont
- Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL University, LEDa, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775, Paris Cedex 16, France
| | - Anne-Laure Samson
- Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL University, LEDa, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775, Paris Cedex 16, France.
| | - Marc Fleurbaey
- Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA
| | - Stéphane Luchini
- Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS, GREQAM, Centre de la Vieille Charité, 2 Rue de la Charité, 13002, Marseille, France
| | - Erik Schokkaert
- Department of Economics, KU Leuven, Naamsestraat 69 - bus 3565, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.,CORE, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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Rappange DR, van Exel J, Brouwer WBF. A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates. Eur J Health Econ 2017; 18:7-12. [PMID: 26749395 PMCID: PMC5209395 DOI: 10.1007/s10198-015-0754-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2015] [Accepted: 11/26/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Understanding subjective longevity expectations is important, but measurement is not straightforward. Two common elicitation formats are the direct measurement of a subjective point estimate of life expectancy and the assessment of survival probabilities to a range of target ages. This study presents one of the few direct comparisons of these two methods. Results from a representative sample of the Dutch population indicate that respondents on average gave higher estimates of longevity using survival probabilities (83.6 years) compared to point estimates (80.2 years). Individual differences between elicitation methods were smaller for younger respondents and for respondents with a higher socioeconomic status. The correlation between the subjective longevity estimations was moderate, but their associations with respondents' characteristics were similar. Our results are in line with existing literature and suggest that findings from both elicitation methods may not be directly comparable, especially in certain subgroups of the population. Implications of inconsistent and focal point answers, rounding and anchoring require further attention. More research on the measurement of subjective expectations is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- David R Rappange
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Werner Brouwer, Office J8-53, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Job van Exel
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Werner Brouwer, Office J8-53, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Werner B F Brouwer
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Werner Brouwer, Office J8-53, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Rappange DR, Brouwer WBF, van Exel J. A long life in good health: subjective expectations regarding length and future health-related quality of life. Eur J Health Econ 2016; 17:577-89. [PMID: 26077549 PMCID: PMC4867149 DOI: 10.1007/s10198-015-0701-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2014] [Accepted: 05/27/2015] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Subjective life expectancy is considered relevant in predicting mortality and future demand for health services as well as for explaining peoples' decisions in several life domains, such as the perceived impact of health behaviour changes on future health outcomes. Such expectations and in particular subjective expectations regarding future health-related quality of life remain understudied. The purpose of this study was to investigate individuals' subjective quality adjusted life years (QALYs) expectation from age 65 onwards in a representative sample of the Dutch generic public. METHODS A web-based questionnaire was administered to a sample of the adult population from the Netherlands. Information on subjective expectations regarding length and future health-related quality of life were combined into one single measure of subjective expected QALYs from age 65 onwards. This subjective QALY expectation was related to background, health and lifestyle variables. The implications of using different methods to construct our main outcome measure were addressed. RESULTS Mean subjective expected QALYs from age 65 onwards was 11 QALYs (range -9 to 40 QALYs). Individuals with unhealthier lifestyles, chronic diseases, severe disorders or lower age of death of next of kin reported lower QALY expectations. Indicators were varyingly associated with either subjective life expectancy or future health-related quality of life, or both. CONCLUSION Extending the concept of subjective life expectancy by correcting for expected quality of life appears to generate important additional information contributing to our understanding of people's perceptions regarding ageing and lifestyle choices.
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Affiliation(s)
- David R Rappange
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Werner B F Brouwer
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Job van Exel
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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